I don't have much to say so I am going to return to my research assignments now. 

Thanks for reading my Diary. 

Enjoy your evening. 

Be safe.

From Charlie! See here.

Been in the research mode this afternoon. 

 At 11:04 am:

- NYSE volume 121M shares, 16% below its one-month average 

- Nasdaq volume 1.19B shares, 2% below its one-month average

NYSE Highs: 32, Lows: 43 

Nasdaq Highs: 41, Lows: 174





Breadth



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Biggest Movers

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Heat Map

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"Close the F*&^g Door"





The Credit Strategist Blog

We shouldn't blame Jay Powell for being a bit stressed these days. After all, he unleashed the biggest bout of inflation in forty years after sitting like a deer in the headlights as price pressures built up in his face. Nonetheless, his recent outburst was nothing if not comical in view of the fact that closing doors after the horses have left the barn is the special talent of central bankers and regulators. If these machers could only figure out how to close doors a bit earlier, the world would be a much better place.

Moody's Investors Service is another case in point. The ratings agency finally stepped up to the plate last Friday and told the U.S. government to not only stop spending money like drunken sailors but to stop acting like drunken sailors in general. By finally changing its outlook on America's debt to negative, Moody's conceded what everybody else knows - that the world's largest economy is spending itself into insolvency.



Just because the United States can print its own currency doesn't mean that currency will retain its value; in fact, precisely the opposite is the case as trillions upon trillions of dollars of debt are churned out by the Treasury with no prospect of repayment, rendering those dollars less valuable by the day. Charles Ponzi is rolling over in his grave watching U.S. politicians and policymakers make a mockery of his bad name.



The feeble rebuttals offered to Moody's warning were all the proof we need that nobody can keep a straight face anymore when it comes to government spending ("The American economy remains strong, and Treasury securities are the world's preeminent safe and liquid asset," said Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Wally Adeyemo who made the mistake of staying late in the office last Friday night).

The jig is up on U.S. debt and the only thing that will lower interest rates from here is a debt crisis which is increasingly likely as Congress speeds us toward another government shutdown without any signs of intelligent life regarding economic policy emerging from the House of Representatives.

No wonder Jay Powell wanted someone to close the f*&^g door. He was just sorry he wasn't on the outside looking in rather than stuck trying to explain again how he and his predecessors messed things up so badly and will keep doing so until the system breaks.

Investment short B. Riley RILY is down by another -$7 (or -27%) on financing concerns.

FINALLY the pairs trade Long IWM /Short QQQ s beginning to work!

The Boeing rally on real and possible new orders is distorting the market a bit. Boeing is adding about 40 to 45 points in the Dow. So, it is theoretically that much weaker if you subtract Boeing.

The other thing is the yield on the ten-year. It has waffled pretty much between the 4.60% and 4.70% area. A kind of neutral territory. Below 4.60%, as we said in the commentary, they are mildly bullish and above 4.70%, might put some pressure on equities.

So, for now, they continue to take their own pulse and temperature and the S&P is re-evaluating its testing of the 4400 area. That area will be watched by traders, particularly on how we close and that may set a slightly longer tone, but for now, they are testing and retesting themselves and are indecisive.

Keep those guideposts in mind and stay very much alert and also stay safe.

Arthur

From Peter: Watching for where the credit cracks are forming.

With the cost of capital for most American businesses outside of the biggest now ranging about 8-12% and investor money piling into private credit in what has become a craze, I'm on the lookout constantly for where the cracks in the economic foundation are forming as we continuously adjust to this new interest rate reality. I'll highlight a few things of note in what I read over the past few days. 

Over the weekend in the WSJ there was an article titled "Analysts Assessing Risks of Private Credit" and talked about a recent report from S&P Global Ratings that "used the firm's confidential credit assessments for clients to offer a rare view of roughly 2,000 private corporate borrowers with more than $400 billion in debt between them. Without identifying the companies, the firm ran stress tests to see how they might fare in varying economic scenarios." 

The article concluded with this from the S&P report, "Just 46% of the companies in the analysis would generate positive cash flow from their business operations under S&P's mildest stress scenario, in which earnings fell by 10% and the Fed's benchmark rates increased by another .5 percentage point...Private credit sponsors would be left facing difficult choices over which companies to keep supporting." While I don't expect any more rate hikes, an earnings shortfall of at least 10% is an easy do in any recession. 

Lastly, "S&P has been lowering scores on several of its credit estimates, a move similar to a downgrade on a rated bond. The firm lowered its scores for 87 companies into its 'CCC' territory from the start of the year through the end of August, a heightened rate similar to the that at the start of the pandemic."

Here's another credit related article in the WSJ titled "The Clearest Sign Yet That Commercial Real Estate Is in Trouble." In the piece, "Lenders this year have issued a record number of foreclosure notices for high-risk property loans, according to a WSJ analysis. Many of these loans are similar to 2nd mortgages and commonly known as mezzanine loans." 

"The Journal analysis found notices for 62 mezzanine loans and other high-risk loans this year through October. That is more than double the number for all of last year, and likely the highest total ever for a single year, as higher interest rates and rising vacancies punish the property sector."

Here is one more article to point out in today's FT titled "Top four US banks scoop lion's share of sector profits" in light of the credit access challenges for many small and medium sized businesses. "The four biggest US lenders grabbed almost half of all banking profits in the 3rd quarter." These include JPM Chase, BoA, Wells Fargo and Citigroup. "Of the nation's almost 4,400 banks, the big four made 45% of the industry's overall profits in the 3rd quarter. That was up from 35% a year ago and well above the 10 yr average of 39%. By contrast profits at all other institutions dropped by an average 19% in the quarter, their largest fall since the early months of the coronavirus pandemic." 

A huge reason for the discrepancy was the advantage of low cost of deposits that the large banks have over the smaller ones. "The big four were paying less than 2% a year on accounts that paid interest in the 3rd quarter. That compared with nearly 3% average for regional banks. In addition, more than 40% of the deposit accounts at the nation's four largest banks pay no interest at all. That compares with 30% for the industry overall." 

A few things of importance from overseas. Japan's October PPI, much less relevant in terms of market moving relative to CPI, was a touch softer than expected, up .8% y/o/y vs the estimate of up .9%. Much of this is due to the very tough comp as October 2022 saw gain of 9.7% y/o/y which was on top of an 8.2% rise in October 2021. The 10 yr Japan inflation breakeven was little changed in response and 10 yr JGB yields were up by 2 bps. The yen though continues to weaken and is nearing 152. I believe NIRP is on its last legs in Japan, and thus globally. 

China reported its aggregate loan data for October and it was 100b yuan less than expected at 1.850 trillion yuan. This though comes after a huge 4.12 trillion figure seen in September and continues to reflect the slowdown in mortgage issuance to households, amongst other things. This figure came out after the Chinese close but the yuan is up a touch. Chinese stocks during their regular session did rally ahead of the Biden/Xi coffee talk this week. The Hang Seng is one of the cheapest stock markets in the world as the level of pessimism to investing there is as dour as I've seen toward any market I've analyzed and invested in all the years I've been doing this.

From Liz Ann:

* I continue to support the view that buying Disney on weakness will continue to be an unprofitable investment endeavor

* Threats to Paramount Global - with its overleveraged balance sheet - are even more formidable than Disney's headwinds







Under normal conditions I would be a buyer of Disney - after all, its consumer franchises (movies, theme parks, cruises, etc.) are among the most unique and iconic in the world. And, its share prices ($88) has more than halved from early 2021 when the shares traded above $200/share. 

However, as I have documented, below, Disney faces multiple challenges throughout its entire suite of products. Those threats have no clear short term solutions and will take years to address. 

These challenges, as I have warned, are not something that an activist can remedy - as Dan Loeb and Nelson Peltz have learned - in that they are sitting with large unrealized losses on their Disney stock positions. 

The greatest challenge, of course, is transitioning from profitable legacy/linear television to unprofitable streaming with all its attendant costs and marketing dilemmas. But that metamorphosis is but one of the multiple headwinds. 

As a vivid example, some of Disney's older and successful movie franchises have apparently not adapted to the times. 

On Sunday it was announced that box office receipts for Disney's new "The Marvels" fell dramatically short of expectations.  

"Disney's Marvel Cinematic Universe is no longer a bulletproof box office franchise. That much is clear after "The Marvels" misfired with $47 million in its opening weekend to land the worst debut in MCU history. Initial tracking was closer to $75 million to $80 million, but those projections shrank dramatically in recent weeks to $60 million to $65 million. With bad buzz and actors like Brie Larson unable to promote the film due to the SAG strike (which finally ended on Friday), "The Marvels" didn't even match those disappointing estimates.

Only two other films in the sprawling series ("The Marvels" is the 33rd installment in 15 years) have opened to lower than $60 million: 2008's "The Incredible Hulk" with $55.4 million and 2015's "Ant-Man" with $57.2 million, not adjusted for inflation. Although the MCU has been showing rare signs of wear and tear in its Spandex, the franchise's other two big-screen adventures to open this year, February's "Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania" ($106 million) and May's "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3" ($118 million), still managed to hit triple digits in their respective debuts. The third "Ant-Man" wasn't labeled a bust until the end of its box office run. "The Marvels" is the rare MCU movie to flop out of the gate."

- Variety

"This is an unprecedented Marvel box office collapse"

- David A. Gross, Franchise Entertainment Research.

It should be noted that the overall cost of the movie "The Marvels" has exceeded $300 million - with production costs of $220 million and marketing expenses of approximately $100 million! 

Here is more from past columns: 

Paramount Global and Disney Remain Value Traps

* I continue not to be tempted by lower share prices of these two popular entertainment companies

My contribution to your investment performance is not only aimed at providing the analysis and demonstrating the investment rationale why I am buying, selling and/or shorting - but, importantly, to explain why certain individual equities and sectors that I am avoiding. 

Paramount and Disney have been viewed widely as value plays over the last several years. I have demurred and have raised serious doubt of their value, even as several activists initiated and expanded their ownership. 

In actuality the shares of PARA and DIS have served as hedges against profits - as both stocks are now making or are near multi-year lows today. 

My analysis to avoid these stocks has been contrary to the near universal optimism that we have seen from the sell-side and from cheerleaders in the business media towards these very popular stocks.



Over the last decade, every bull on Disney has relied on the hackneyed phrase that the company "is a unique franchise consisting of irreplaceable content" without thinking about the burden of its debt nor the diminished prospects for both legacy broadcasting and the difficulties associated with the transformation towards a streaming business model. 

My negative thesis on the prospects for profitless prosperity for streaming and other factors, was expressed in my Diary over the last two years. I repost a recent summary of my continued ursine outlook:



Jul 06, 2023 ' 09:18 AM EDT DOUG KASS

Why Disney and Paramount May No Longer Be Wonderful Companies or Investments

* Disney and Paramount may be instructive examples of high profile investing and activist mistakes from several market legends

* Rapid secular shifts in consumption, operating challenges and large debt loads have likely taken DIS and PARA out of the ranks of the "wonderful" class of American corporations

* The near to intermediate term outlooks for the share prices of Disney and Paramount look, for now, problematic... despite the large share price declines both may still represent value traps

"It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price, than a fair company at a wonderful price."

- Warren Buffett

There is less than meets the eyes with regard to the futures of Disney (DIS) and Paramount Global (PARA) - two companies with a lot of debt and declining fundamental fortunes, as the media landscape undergoes a difficult, unprofitable and painful shift from linear to (content expensive) streaming.

Investment in these two companies appear to be examples how even some of the greatest money managers (Warren Buffett/Berkshire Hathaway BRK.ABRK.B , Michael Dell DELL ) and activists (Nelson Peltz and Dan Loeb) might have made meaningful mistakes by failing to recognize that the wonderful financial and operating profiles of the past are becoming a distant memory.

DISNEY

Despite an extensive list of well-recognized and popular product offerings - movies, theme parks, merchandise etc. - Disney's fortunes have deteriorated under the weight of legacy debt (from the Fox FOX deal), an historically bloated cost structure and other operational challenges - mainly the transition from previously profitable linear media to now unprofitable and capital/content intensive streaming:

Jun 22, 2023 ' 01:08 PM EDT DOUG KASS

The Mouse Isn't Roaring

* I continue to avoid Disney despite its sharp share price drop and serial underperformance

Under $90 I would normally be buying Disney (DIS) - especially with several activists as vocal and significant stakeholders.

But there is nothing normal about the accumulating threats to the company's near and intermediate term prospects:

* The legacy broadcasting business is deteriorating much faster than expected - for Disney and its competitors.

* The transition from formerly high margined linear broadcasting to streaming has become unexpectedly more difficult with, among other issues, content expenses out of control.

* A series of theatrical disappointments are raising red flags - particularly with the threat of AI oriented peers.

* Even the company recently admitted that the ridiculously high price of admission prices to Disney's theme parks has likely approached or is at the limit.

* Disney's future leadership is uncertain.

* To offset some of the above, the company has embarked on a cost cutting effort - but the low hanging fruit of cuts have likely been picked.

* The shares are "over owned" and given the erosion in fundamentals (2023-24 EPS estimates are too high) I don't know where the marginal buyer comes from.

PARAMOUNT GLOBAL

Paramount also faces the dual challenge of a large debt load and the formidable challenge of transition from linear to streaming: 

Apr 25, 2023 ' 03:08 PM EDT DOUG KASS

My PARA Exposure

I have shifted down in my exposure to Paramount Global (PARA) - from medium to small sized.

I did this based primarily on the likely weakening profit and cash flow picture at the company and at other streamers. As mentioned previously, despite cutting content expenditures, PARA will have to go into its cash account to cover the quarterly dividend.

I am also importantly influenced by the weakness in the share prices of PARA's streaming peers.

Not only is Disney's (DIS) share price lower but I am especially concerned about the weak price performance of Warner Discovery's (WBD) common shares - despite the strong buy issued at Goldman Sachs over the last few trading sessions.

May 04, 2023 ' 07:51 AM EDT DOUG KASS

Not Unexpectedly... Paramount Global Spits the Bit

* Good sale back in April

Back in late April I reduced my (PARA) long position dramatically - from medium sized down to tag ends:

Apr 25, 2023 ' 03:08 PM EDT DOUG KASS

My PARA Exposure

I have shifted down in my exposure to Paramount Global (PARA) - from medium to small sized.

I did this based primarily on the likely weakening profit and cash flow picture at the company and at other streamers. As mentioned previously, despite cutting content expenditures, PARA will have to go into its cash account to cover the quarterly dividend.

I am also importantly influenced by the weakness in the share prices of PARA's streaming peers.

Not only is Disney's (DIS) share price lower but I am especially concerned about the weak price performance of Warner Discovery's (WBD) common shares - despite the strong buy issued at Goldman Sachs over the last few trading sessions.

My concerns were fulfilled this morning as the company reported an operating loss and reduced its dividend.

Paramount Global misses by $0.09, misses on revs (22.89)



· Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.09 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.09 worse than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $0.18; revenues fell 0.9% year/year to $7.26 bln vs the $7.42 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.



· Pluto TV Hit 80M Monthly Active Users (MAUs) and is the #1 Free Ad-Supported Streaming Television Service Globally. Total Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Revenue Grew 39% Year-Over-Year to An Annual Run Rate of More Than $6B. Total Global Viewing Hours Across Paramount+ and Pluto TV Increased Over 50% Year-Over.



· Paramount+ reached 60M total subscribers with the addition of 4.1M subscribers in the quarter. Global subscriber growth was driven by a strong content slate including top originals like 1923, Tulsa King and the returns of Mayor of Kingstown and Star Trek: Picard, hit film franchises in Top Gun: Maverick and Teen Wolf: The Movie, as well as the NFL Playoffs.



· Quarterly Cash Dividend Reduced to $0.05 Per Share (prior dividend $0.24/share).

Bottom Line

For the reasons mentioned in this morning's opening missive, I am still materially avoiding the shares of Disney and Paramount.

Upside



-TENX +75% (US FDA clears IND for TNX-103 (oral levosimendan) for Treatment of Pulmonary Hypertension with Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction (PH-HFpEF))

-MNTK +15% (Scotia Howard Weil Raised MNTK to Sector Outperform from Sector Perform, price target: $9)

-LAZY +14% (announces cancellation of rights offering to stockholders)

-MNDY +9.9% (earnings, guidance)

-OSPN +6.5% (commences modified "Dutch Auction" tender offer to repurchase approximately $20M of common stock)

-STNE +4.9% (earnings, guidance)

-LIXT +4.1% (provides update on clinical progress and expanding collaborations)

-GH +3.5% (Raymond James Raised GH to Outperform from Market Perform)

-BA +3.3% (announces multiple orders; optimistic regarding China discussions)

-HPQ +1.9% (CitiGroup Raised HPQ to Buy from Neutral, price target: $33)



Downside



-ACRS -84% (Top-line Results from 12-Week Phase 2b Trial of Oral Zunsemetinib (ATI-450) for Moderate to Severe Rheumatoid Arthritis Did Not Meet Primary or Secondary Efficacy Endpoints in Rheumatoid Arthritis)

-VERV -38% (announces Interim Data for VERVE-101 demonstrating first Human Proof-of-Concept for In Vivo Base Editing with Dose-Dependent Reductions in LDL-C and Blood PCSK9 Protein in patients with Heterozygous Familial Hypercholesterolemia)

-TSEM -6.2% (earnings, guidance)

-GENI -5.1% (earnings, guidance)

-TSN -4.1% (earnings, guidance)

-NABL -3.7% (earnings, guidance)

-PLUG -3.4% (multiple broker downgrade, cuts in price target)

At 8:51 am:

View Chart »View in New Window »

From JPMorgan:





US: Futs are lower. Bond yields are flat to modestly lower; USD is lower. Cmdtys are mixed: oil is flat; base metals are lower. Over the weekend, Speaker Johnson unveiled a two-step CR, which is expected to be voted as early as Tuesday; an agreement needs to be reached by November 17 (Friday) at midnight to avoid a government shutdown ahead of holidays. Moody's downgraded U.S. credit outlook from stable to negative. This week, Tuesday's CPI and Wednesday's Retail Sales will be the main macro focus. We will also hear from retailers, including HD, WMT and TGT, this week for updates on consumer health. Additionally, keep an eye on headlines from Biden-Xi's meeting at the APEC conference this Wednesday. 

and...  

EQUITY AND MACRO NARRATIVE: Amid a light data calendar last week, SPX rallied 1.3% and closed above 4400, first time since mid-September. The rally was led by MegaCap Tech with the "Magnificent 7" having a +3.2% WoW gain last week (or +4.1% ex-TSLA), while JPM High Short Interest (JPTASHTE) losing 5.8%. SPX outperformed SPW by 1.9% and NDX outperformed NDXE by 45bp. While last Thursday's weak 30y auction triggered selloffs in both bonds (10y +13bp) and equities (SPX -0.8%), a Tech-led rally resumed on Friday supported by strong technicals (retail and CTA buying). Our Positioning Intelligence team highlighted that investors had increased directional risk via index last week, but there has been little willingness to chase the rally at a stock level so far. Therefore, the team thinks that there is still too much bearishness in positioning. For this week, we will enter a busy week with data catalysts (CPI and Retail Sales), consumer earnings (HD, WMT and TGT) and geopolitical risks (Friday deadline to avoid a government shutdown, Biden-Xi). The balance of this note will be focusing on those catalysts, as well as updates from ECON & FICC, Positioning Intelligence, and Mislav.

* Last Thursday I suggested we might be approaching a speculative top blowoff in technology; was I right on cue?

* We grew more overbought on last Friday; the S&P Short-Range Oscillator rose from 3.08% to 5.39%, that's way overbought - two weeks ago the Oscillator stood at -6.82% (that was very oversold)!

* There has been a Teutonic shift in sentiment

* This morning bond yields are slightly higher

* Brent crude was down by nearly $1/barrel earlier in the morning -- now up on the day

* I aggressively added to energy stocks on Friday after extreme weakness of the last month

* Inflationary pressures are rising:

"Six o'clock already

I was just in the middle of a dream

I was kissin' Valentino

By a crystal-blue, Italian stream

But I can't be late

'Cause then I guess I just won't get paid

These are the days

When you wish your bed was already made

It's just another manic Monday (Woah, woah)

I wish it was Sunday (Woah, woah)

'Cause that's my fun day (Woah, woah, woah, woah)

My I don't have to run day (Woah, woah)

It's just another manic Monday"

--The Bangles, "Manic Monday" 

"The stock market will do whatever it has to do to embarrass the greatest people to the greatest extent possible." -- Wally Deemer

"Workin' on our night moves Trying to lose the awkward teenage blues Workin' on our night moves In the summertime And oh the wonder Felt the lightning And we waited on the thunder Waited on the thunder."

- Bob Seger, "Night Moves"

This daily Futures feature is like inside baseball. I try to show you and write about what I believe thoughtful hedge fund managers are looking at when they awake -- let's call it our normal routine -- setting the stage for their strategy for the day. The market is a complicated mosaic and the more info you have, the better trader and investor you will be!

The market (and money) never sleeps -- and neither do I, it appears! I have previously described the importance that overnight futures trading hold for me here. It is a guidepost to my strategy in the regular trading session. Moreover, the overnight/early morning futures hold opportunities as they are (1) inefficient, though liquid and (2) it seems fear and greed are often exaggerated outside the regular trading session. I frequently try to capture those efficiencies by trading actively both in the pre- and after-market sessions.

Here are brief observations I wanted to highlight and provide a summary of overnight price movements in various asset classes:

* Stock futures were lower most of the overnight session but have more than halved their losses in the last 1 1/2 hours. S&P futures peaked at -1 and bottomed at -22. Nasdaq futures peaked at +6 and bottomed at -88. At 5:55 a.m. ET, S&P futures were -8 and Nasdaq futures were -37.

And...

* The S&P Short-Range Oscillator moved further overbought 5.39% vs. 3.08%.

* The VIX is now at 15.04, a gain of +0.87. I am actively trading straddles, selling on VIX spikes and covering on VIX drops. Nothing on right now, given low volume.

* The U.S. dollar is stronger against the yen but down vs. euro and sterling.

And...

* Treasury yields stabilized this morning. The 2-Year Treasury yield is +1 basis point at 5.06% and the 10-Year is also +1 basis point at 4.63%. Over there, the yield on the 10-Year U.K. Gilt bond is -3 basis points.

* Overnight, the inversion of the 2s/10s Treasuries curve is back up to -43 basis points. Real rates remain quite elevated -- 10-year is over 2.30 in real terms.

* Commodities are mixed to higher. Brent crude is +$0.20 to $81.62.

* Gold is +$4 at $1,941.

* Bitcoin is reversing yesterday's gains and is -$160 at $36.9k.

Here is a synopsis of some of my columns I believe were important, or in the event you were out for the day and/or did not read my Diary. The principal intent is to review the logic of my market moves and other factors:

The Stock Trader's Almanac

Investor Sentiment

Repeating for Emphasis

First Time, Long Time (Shorting some of the Magnificent 7)

What, Me, Worry? (consumer sentiment is spinning lower)

Here were Friday's trades:

* Added to OXY and XOM

* Re-established BAC long

* Pairs Trade

I have put on a large pairs trade: Long (IWM) /Short (QQQ) .



From Bespoke on the subject of the bifurcated market:

Unlike every other day this week where the S&P 500 traded higher on the day and the equal-weighted version traded lower, on Thursday, they both traded lower with declines of about 0.8%. In just the first four days of this week, the equal-weighted index underperformed the cap-weighted index by 1.5 percentage points, and over the last 200 trading days, the performance gap between the two indices now stands at over 15 percentage points. A gap that wide is practically unheard of, and since 1990, it has been wider on 55 trading days, and they all occurred in the periods spanning December 1998 through April 1999 and then briefly between March and April 2000.

This table is a valuable resource for momentum-based short term traders:

View Chart »View in New Window »

The case for a speculative blow off in The Magnificent Seven may have been strengthened on Friday:

I have unexpectedly been called out of the office for a Board meeting between 10 am and 11:45 am this morning. 

Radio silence between those hours.

The price of Brent oil has rallied from losses earlier in the morning - with a recovery of over $1/barrel from the lows, and now up on the day! 

I meaningfully added to XOM and OXY on Friday's weakness: 

Back in BAC, Added Some Oil

Added to (OXY) and (XOM).

Reestablished a long in (BAC).

BY DOUG KASSNOV 10, 2023 3:22 PM EST

Boeing's BApremarket strength will likely buoy the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

On China real estate:

Here is a candid interview with an old friend of mine, Jeff Greene, on how he has thrived as a real estate investor. 

Run, don't walk to read Jeff as, customarily, he has a no holds barredinterview in Forbes magazine.

As I will discuss in tomorrow's opener, I am positioning my portfolio based on the notion that there is a rising probability that we are completing or near to completing a speculative blow off in The Magnificent Seven.

Repeating from late Friday afternoon: