Fed Speakers:

5:45AM: Fed Board of Governor Cook (Voter) speaks about tokenization at the Central Bank of West African StatesConference on Digital Assets, Dakar; 11:05AM: Fed Bank of Chicago President Goolsbee (Non-Voter) Television Appearance -- CNBC;

2:20PM: Fed Bank of Chicago President Goolsbee (Non-Voter) Television Appearance -- Bloomberg Television;

7:30PM: Fed Bank of Chicago President Goolsbee (Non-Voter); Fed Bank of San Francisco President Daly (Non-Voter), FOMC Member Waller (Voter)and FOMC Member Bowman (Voter) participate in panel before the Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference 2026, "Independence,Structure, and Risks Ahead for Central Banks," Stanford, CA (Goolsbee embargoed text TBD. Livestream available. Other details TBA);

Time: Episode to publish across podcast platforms early Friday morning.

Fed Bank of Chicago President Goolsbee (Non-Voter)Podcast Appearance -- The Economics Show (Financial Times).

Economic Calendar

From Jazzy Jeff Hirsch's Stock Trader's Almanac:

Even though it has been a week since S&P 500 finished April with an impressive 10.42%, there is still an ongoing discussion about the abrupt reversal and what to expect in the near term. Take the gains and “sell in May” or will this strength continue? First let’s put some context around this year’s April S&P 500 gain. It was the fourth best April for S&P 500 since 1930. The closest comparable April in recent years was in 2020 when S&P 500 jumped 12.7%. Prior to that, the last time S&P 500 climbed double digits in April was way back in 1938 (+14.1%). The best April ever…+42.2% in 1933.

For our research today, a “big” April is defined as a gain of at least three times April’s average (mean) monthly performance since 1950. This works out to be a 4.67% gain when April 2026 is included. Since 1950, there have been 15 other years when S&P 500 gained 4.67% or more. When compared to the other 61 years, big April gains were broadly bullish for May, the remainder of the year, and the full year with average performance essentially double “All Other Years.” Performance in May saw the biggest improvement jumping to a 2.12% gain following Big Aprils versus a –0.07% decline in “All Other Years.” Frequency of gains (% Higher) also improved across the board.

There was also a modest improvement in the Max Drawdown that occurred during May to December. Following Big Aprils, the subsequent drawdown tended to begin around the same time but ended earlier and resulted in lower Median drawdown. The worst years that had Big Aprils were 2001 (2nd year of tech bubble and 9/11) and 2008 (financial crisis). In both of those years the bulk of the damage was during the “Worst Six Months.” 

For those of us that enjoy a quick graphic, we have plotted the 15 Big April years in the following S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern chart. We have included the 6th Year of Presidency, Trump Presidency Years, and 2026 as of today’s close for comparison. All three patterns end the year at approximately the same level, around 12-15%, pushing the upper range of our Base case 2026 forecast. Along the way, we still cannot rule out the possibility of some volatility due to the Iran conflict, high crude oil price, tepid seasonal factors, and midterm elections.

 Seasonal MACD Sell Signal Update

As of today’s close, MACD indicators applied to DJIA and S&P 500 are positive. S&P 500 would need to decline 173.01 points (–2.36%) in a single day to turn its MACD indicator negative while DJIA needs to gain at least 54.13 points (+0.11%) tomorrow for its MACD indicator to remain positive. Continue to hold long positions associated with DJIA’s and S&P 500’s “Best Six Months.” We will issue the Seasonal MACD Sell signal when corresponding MACD Sell indicators applied to DJIA and S&P 500 both crossover and issue a new sell signal.

We have been reminding everyone that a key criterion to issue our Seasonal MACD Sell signal for DJIA and S&P 500 is that both their MACD indicators must agree. Earlier this week was an example of DJIA’s MACD indicator briefly turning negative, but S&P 500 MACD remained positive. As a result, there was no signal issued on Tuesday, May 5. Both MACD indicators must be negative when the market closes.

You can track MACD using your preferred charting platform. Our Seasonal MACD Sell indicator is calculated using daily closing prices with a short exponential moving average (ema) of 12, a long ema of 26 and a 9-period ema for the signal line. This is frequently written as 12-26-9 or in the accompanying charts as 12, 26, 9.

Position: None

Citigroup cuts Wynn Resorts'  (WYNN)  price target to $132 from $145.

Position: Short WYNN (VS) 

The S&P Short Range Oscillator remains in overbought at 1.60% vs. 2.22%.

Position: Short SPY (VS), QQQ (VS)

Wells Fargo downgrades Nike  (NKE)  from overweight to neutral.

Position: None

After covering most of my index shorts on the fall in futures last evening, I have added back to the index shorts. I have also put on these additional shorts in the premarket (at around 530 AM):

*  (SPY)  $735.07

*  (QQQ)  $699.41

*  (AMD)  $414.20

*  (MU)  $661.92

*  (INTC)  $111.61

Position: Short SPY (VS), QQQ (VS), AMD (VS), MU (VS), INTC (VS)

* As futures fell by about -40 handles in the after market...

Dougie Kass

At the sounds of firing in the Strait, futures lower.

Covering some Indices (moving from small to very small sized) at 555PM:

SPY $728.61 QQQ $691.01

From right after the close:

Back Shorting the Indices

On the run off higher after the close, I'm back shorting the indices:

* (SPY) $732.15

* (QQQ) $696.82

Position: Short SPY (S), QQQ (S)

BY Doug Kass · May 7, 2026, 4:10 PM EDT

Position: Short SPY (VS), QQQ (VS)