"Theeeee Yankees win!"

- John Sterling 

Thanks for reading my Diary today. I hope my output was value-added.

Before I leave the stadium, just one last thing...

With Sandy Koufax as my cousin how could I not I love baseball — all facets of it.

I love the New York Yankees (I am a "bleacher creature") and, naturally, the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Today WFAN put out a press release saying that the voice of the New York Yankees, John Sterling, has passed away.

Here are some of the greatest home run calls made by John Sterling. John Sterling’s TOP TEN Yankees Home Run Calls!

John became the Yankees' play by play announcer in 1989 and spent 36 years as their announcer.

He called 5,060 consecutive games (not including 211 more in the postseason) until he missed three games in June 2019, when he fell sick.

In total he announced over 5,631 games, including eight World Series — more than anyone in NY Yankees history.

He called every one of Derek Jeter's games (20 years) and he announced every pitch ever thrown by Mariano Rivera!

The announcer's style in calling player-specific home run calls was unique and iconic — often involving pop culture references, playful wordplay and puns... like these:

Aaron Judge : "All rise! Here comes the Judge!"

Giancarlo Stanton: "Giancarlo, non si puo de stopparlo"

Bernie Williams: "Bern baby Bern!" (This one launched John's career)

Jason Giambi: "The Giambino!"

Hideki Matsui: "A thrilla from Godzilla!"

Jorge Posada: "Jorgie juiced one!"

Alex Rodriguez: "Its an A-Bomb! From A-Rod!"

DJ LeMahieu: "DJ Le Mahieu! David John makes long gone"

Anthony Volpe: "Anthony Volpe! A spettacolo oggi!"

Here is a beautiful retrospective of John Sterling's career. 

This is absolutely incredible. 💔 pic.twitter.com/BeRyqR8WLO

— Brandon Tierney (@BrandonTierney)

Thanks for everything Mr. Sterling. R.I.P.

Position: None

Ten-year yield chart. Something to keep an eye on... pic.twitter.com/ceF4rgYYbz

— Walter Deemer (@WalterDeemer)

1/ Here's that math $GME / $EBAY 🧵

$125/share offer
~$55BN EV; = 19x LTM / 18x FY’26 EBITDA

Structure matters more than headline:
* 50% cash / 50% stock
* ~$20B debt "highly-confident" 🤔
*~$27B+ GME stock to eBay holders
* GME cash fills the gap

On surface, paying 18x for… https://t.co/Jv1zx4y4fV

— Scott R. Grossman (@srg444)

Position: None

Ryan Cohen's interview on @cnbc this morning was equal parts painful, hilarious, and predictable. $GME's proposed acquisition of $EBAY is a transaction that Charlie Munger would love. Show me the incentives, I'll show you the outcome.

Here's Ryan Cohen's incentive package.… pic.twitter.com/tUSrkzTT4w

— PAA Research (@ActAccordingly)

This is what the market has come to... in what can only be described as a large dose of hubris: $JOET is lecturing Warren Buffett about having too much cash. He recommends that he put a portion of his near $400 billion cash hoarde into the S and P Index ($SPY).

Good god,…

— Dougie Kass (@DougKass)

@TheJudgeCNBC @HalftimeReport An example of a potential negative factor (discussed this morning on @thestreetpro and glossed over by Brad) ... If you actually did the S&P multiple on cash flow it is a far different story than Brad discusses. (We call this cherry picking data.)… https://t.co/FD1RCA75ZV

— Dougie Kass (@DougKass)

* Especially in a continued narrowing of leadership (in profits and price appreciation) in a 'K-shaped' S&P Index...

* With interest rates, inflation and the price of crude oil making multi-month highs and likely to remain "higher for longer" -- and with valuations near historic highs -- what could possibly go wrong?

"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually."

- Margaret Thatcher

Nothing is more obstinate than a fashionable consensus.

Here is the conventional, consensus and linear bullish view from Ed Yardeni - it is repeated on Fin TV from 6 a.m. and throughout every trading day:

Ed Yardeni: "The stock market balloon is climbing higher, and the burners are firing. It isn't all hot air that is lifting stock prices. It's also earnings revisions, which are increasing for 2026 and 2027. Growth stocks and the Magnificent-7 have reasserted leadership over the…

— David Kass (@DrDavidKass)

Abetted by unprecedented growth in AI capital spending most market observers that appear in the business media make several bullish points:

* The expected rate of growth in S&P 2026-2027 EPS has increased since year end.

* Price earnings ratios have resulted moderated and equities remain inexpensive.

One factor, simplistic market models and views like these are tempting for most to digest. 

   My more ursine argument is grounded in the notion that:

* The projected earnings per share gains over the next 12 months is dramatically skewed toward the contributions from large-cap technology. (It is not only the U.S. economy that is K-shaped!) 

* Indeed, taking out the forecast EPS contribution of Micron  (MU) and Nvidia  (NVDA)  halves the 2026 S&P EPS from about +16% to under +10%.  

*  Consider the knock-on ramifications of the explosion in AI cap spend on American industry's non-hyperscaler companies - the enormous construction outlays (think Caterpillar  (CAT)  et al), the added use and need for building materials (think infrastructure expense), massive energy usage, etc. and their contribution to S&P companies' top and bottom lines. Is the extraordinary AI spend sustainable or does it result in a slowdown producing an inevitable downturn in non tech sector revenues and operating profits? (I would consider this skeptical view as my baseline expectation). 

* Speaking of energy companies' profitability, the Iran war has materially  elevated the price of crude oil, and, along with tech companies, has contributed to the large gains in projected 2026 S&P profits. There is a universal view that the price of oil will fall meaningfully when the conflict in Iran is resolved. It follows that the large contribution of energy sector profits to 2026 S&P operating results will then be reversed in 2027. I am not aware of any investment strategist that is accounting for this reversal next year.

* AI capital spending is contributing to a rapid rise in debt at hyperscalers (and future interest costs) and plummeting free cash flow - it is not likely sustainable unless customer user sets/applications of AI improve rapidly and drive return on invested capital from that cap ex:

And then what? Are they really have products to sell with the large number of data centers not finished? Given the debt they put on, will interest expense soar. Will the accountants finally get after them for their circular finance deals

— nancy (@langwiser)

* Who and how demanding will be the buyers of hyperscaler debt?

As FCF rolls over

Who’s going to buy the hyperscaler deb?
Euro/Asia driven into deficit (net debtor) from doubling of energy and GCC is driven rapidly into deficit due to SoH & have $50B of repairs

Maslow hierarchy of needs- GOOG debt, or food, energyhttps://t.co/hmkdSuREme

— Robert (infra 🏛️⌛️) (@infraa_)

Leveraged speculators and investors have been the marginal buyers of AI related debt. That's why the US Treasury & the Fed are climbing all over the SIFI's books. Take a look at C&I lending - surging > inventory growth means backstops (revolvers) are kicking in.

— Robert Parenteau, CFA (@MacroEdge1)

Narrowing Continues

On Friday the S&P Index traded to a new high with less than 40% of the equities higher on the day:

The S&P 500 $SPY rallied at least 0.25% to a new high.

Not even 40% of its stocks rose on the day.

This has happened two other times since 1962. LOL, make of it what you will. pic.twitter.com/2WJkbcn7CA

— Jason Goepfert (@jasongoepfert)

As noted last week, the U.S. Stock Market's leadership is narrowing:

BY DOUG KASS · Apr 29, 2026, 7:10 AM EDT

The Market's Advance Is Narrowing

While investors/machines cheer the multi-week rally — and ignore higher inflation/interest rates/price of oil, plummeting confidence reads, the lack of fiscal discipline (manifested in a continued rise in the deficit and the aggregate U.S. debt load), still elevated valuations, improvisational policy in Washington D.C., bonafide questions regarding AI capital spending (and their anticipated returns etc.) — there are some signs of internal market weakness.Specifically, fewer stocks are providing leadership. Here are three examples of the narrowing:* The number of stocks above their respective 50-day and 200-day moving averages is declining while the index continues to rise.

*Large-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap stocks are all rotating towards the “weakening” quadrant, indicating a loss of upside momentum:

* Nine of the 11 sectors

that make up the S&P 500 are also showing signs of weakness, with only the Energy and Consumer Staples sectors showing improvement:

Bottom Line

Interest rates, inflation and the price of crude oil have made multi-month highs, and appear likely to remain higher for longer.

Moreover, as pointed out in this morning's missive, with such narrowing dispersion of investment performance and concentration of operating profits in a handle of stocks, what could possibly go wrong?

Positions: Short SPY VS

Chart of the Day: 'Fastest Market Recovery Ever'

The S&P 500 erased a double-digit drawdown in just 11 trading sessions, marking the fastest V-shaped recovery on record.

This rally has undoubtedly been unlike anything we've ever seen, with NYSE breadth topping out at just 4:1 and failing to produce a single 5:1 thrust day, something every recent recovery has delivered.

Markets are constantly evolving, and when dips are consistently met with aggressive buying, volatility starts to look less like risk and more like opportunity.

The Takeaway: The S&P 500 just delivered a record-setting rebound, reinforcing just how resilient this market has become.

- a16z (@a16z) / X

Just noticed this today, but the TICK INDEX (NYSE Uptick Minus Downtick) never turned negative during yesterday’s session — highlighting a broad, persistent bid for equities.

👉🏼 According to Bloomberg, that has never happened in history! pic.twitter.com/SkJiR97mHo

— Duality Research (@DualityResearch)

$SPX: Bulls managed to avoid the bearish MACD crossover that seemed imminent last month, mirroring the price action seen in 2018. Beyond that, the monthly candle shows conviction, a move that is usually followed by bullish continuation when a reversal begins as highlighted. pic.twitter.com/FIjOHJixEa

— SmartReversals📈 (@SmartReversals)

The S&P 500 $SPX $SPY was up over 10% in April! We've seen 10%+ monthly gains 13 times since 1950.

Historically, these kinds of powerful upside moves have tended to signal momentum continuation, not exhaustion. 6M-1Y later has seen the index higher 85% of the time: pic.twitter.com/crb9B8Zdti

— Astra (@AstraInsights)

$OWL probably about to squeeze shorts

OWL is private credit firm that got rocked during the software rout.

It's showing signs of life. Rallying off long-term support. Volume profile suggests accumulation.

TLDR: It looks bottomed out.

19% short interest. So, it could move off… https://t.co/BPZUamUWDE pic.twitter.com/9oaqCGNvoH

— Justin Spittler (@JSpitTrades)

$Bitcoin testing a key long-term resistance zone once again

Keep in mind a measured move from that 2-month long triangle could place $BTC near 93,700

*Patterns are not guarantees
*Not a recommendation@SchwabNetwork @SchwabTrading pic.twitter.com/XQDFqj8cre

— Rachel Dashiell, CFP, CMT (@RachelDashCS)

Gold's performance after previous two post-major breakout corrections:

+115% in 14 months
+85% in 17 months pic.twitter.com/iCzBZ229WJ

— Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA ⛏⛏ (@TheDailyGold)

Do I think #Silver has more upside potential? Yes
Am I “loaded up?” No
Why not? Price action and seasonality are both weak
If price action looks better after 7/1, maybe I will load up
For now, seeking other opportunities. @sentimentrader pic.twitter.com/g0PBCV6vVq

— Jay Kaeppel (@jaykaeppel)

Bonus — Here are some great links:

The Early May Chop Bucket

Tupac, Spanish Wine, and Monthly Candlesticks

Position: None