One last thing before it's margarita time.

I've started listening to the No Such Thing podcast. It's co-hosted by Arena's video strategist (I'm making up that title), Devan Joseph. 

What I like about it is that it's three friends who settle their dumb arguments by asking experts to step in.

They've covered topics like "Why does Dasani water taste like that?" and "Why don't men ask follow-up questions."

I've enjoyed it and thought you might, too. It's not political and there's nothing related to finance. (And they don't need my promotion. It's become a top podcast already.)

Thanks again for a fun day. Happy spring!

Well, 5700 remains the line in the sand.

This makes three days this week that the S&P 500 tested that level and found sellers instead of buyers. Of course, all it takes is some news out of Washington to get the market to move one way or the other, but the damage done since February remains the dominant factor. 

Breadth was mixed with 179 S&P 500 constituents up vs. 318 down. On the NYSE, down-volume beat up-volume by close to 2:1.

Here's that heat map again of the S&P 500 constituents today. You can see that it was mixed.

META, which was a big winner in the morning, faded, to finish nearly unchanged. TSLA shares traded up and down, like they were in Full Self Driving mode. They, too, finished unchanged.

That's about it for the market today.

Yeah, I like heat maps. They tell a good story.

In this case, let’s look across the world using US ETFs. The green boxes are up in 2025. The red ones are down in 2025.

There’s green on that map, but it ain’t in the US.

No, if you want the good stuff, you’ve got to leave US shores. Specifically, to Asia.

Our own Alex Frew McMillan covers Asia and today’s column is all about how we Americans are skipping the rally in Asia.

He compares trading volume for the following dually-listed companies and finds that US trading is much lower than in Hong Kong. That wasn't always the case.

Some details:

Alibaba BABA is considered a safe haven by Chinese investors and used to be a favorite in the US, but geopolitical risks have increased and US investors have moved away from the area.

PDD PDD shares are up today on analyst upgrades following mixed earnings this morning.

And BYD BYDDY announced this week that they have new battery tech that can charge an EV in five minutes! Stick that in a Porsche, and I want it.

I think it's worth a read here.

It's always good to be reminded of what truly matters. Thanks Pine!

From Pine

Since I haven’t seen this mentioned here today, I thought I would post a reminder that today is the Spring Equinox. One of two days in the year when we experience roughly equal amounts of daylight and darkness. The Spring, or Vernal Equinox, however carries the symbolism of hope, renewal, and rebirth. Not a bad theme to carry into the coming months.

It is a meaningful day to me. Best to all.

Love Trump or hate the guy, his policies are going to be with us for a while.

And we talk about economics here a lot. Big picture stuff about who Trump’s policies will help or hurt. Sometimes, we use data (yay!), and sometimes anecdotes.

This article falls into the anecdotal evidence bucket, but it does a nice job of describing the impacts on three small businesses that make skis. And when I’m not hanging out with y’all on TheStreet Pro, or messing around with cars, (or spending time with my family!) I’m skiing.

Trump’s Potential Tariffs Leave American Ski Companies in Limbo

So, let’s take a quick look at how the tariffs will impact small ski manufacturers, JSkis, Moment and ON3P.

• JSkis are designed in the US but produced in Quebec, which the owner can drive to from Vermont.
• With a 25% tariff, JSkis would pass that on to customers, resulting in a 10% markup. (The tariff is on JSkis' cost, not the retail price)
• Moment produces their skis in the US, but parts, like steel edges, will carry a 25% tariff.
• ON3P uses sustainable bamboo cores made from China.

In all three cases, these are specialized products with no US based manufacturer that they can swap over to. 

As a result all three companies are having trouble planning for next year and are simply waiting and seeing, rather than making product.

Powder is one of our sister publications. Hope you like the article, whether or not you're a fan of tariffs.

Let’s talk Fear & Greed

We’re still in Extreme Fear, and that 22 value is still overstated. Been here since February 25th. I'm guessing, but I think the correct value would be more like 17.

Stock indicators:

Market Momentum is weak. The 125-day average hasn’t yet rolled over, and since we’ll only be dropped off older data that is currently well below the average, it could be a little more time before the 125-day actually rolls over. As Helene Meisler says, that’s just the math.

However, this recent move took us to 2 standard deviations below the 125 and that’s just not something that happens in bull markets. We remain more than 1 standard deviation below the 125-day.

Stock Price Strength and Breadth are both showing a little life. Investors are nibbling.

Options Indicators:

Lots of improvement here. Put/Call has rolled over and VIX is back to 20. Traders are not scared anymore. They’re also not speculating on a move higher.

Bond Indicators:

Safe Haven Demand is improving. Stocks have rebounded a little relative to bonds. So, that’s good!

But Junk Bond Demand is still not improving. Again, ignore that CNN says this is Greed. The reality is that Junk has underperformed Investment Grade since since the beginning of the year. Investors prefer safer assets. However, it’s not so much that they’re selling Junk, but more that they’re buying Investment Grade. So, perhaps this is part of a rotation out of stocks and into bonds.

Summary: We're oversold and there could certainly be a bounce. In fact, we've already had one. Perhaps we get more upside but with Liberation Day around the corner and the additional tariff talk it will bring, I'd be a bounce seller rather than a dip buyer. Above 5850, we can start assuming I'm wrong.

We don’t have to worry about 5700 for a while as breadth weakens and the Lag 7 stocks do what they’ve done all year.

Here’s an intraday chart. In the top clip, the red line is the number of S&P 500 constituent decliners and the bar chart are advancers. The bottom clip is the S&P 500, sinking towards the low of the day.

Here’s the same data as a heatmap. META is doing what the others can’t.

For context, here’s the same heatmap for year to date.

Stocks are doing fine, if you exclude the Lag 7. Maybe valuation matters?

5700, which I mentioned from Ed Ponsi's article, has continued to put a lid on prices.

Question: Do we get above it again today?

One from Ed Ponsi.

This Fantastic News for Stocks Was Overlooked as Fed’s Powell Stole Spotlight

1. Ed’s worried that the S&P 500 remains trapped below its 200-day at 5746.
2. 3 times, the index has failed at 5700 and is just above it as I write this
3. This level also lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the current decline
4. Bonds, however, are tracing out a head and shoulders top in yields that could see the 10-yr fall to 4% and even 3.25%

Stock investors can always find something to be optimistic about, whether warranted or not. That’s because stocks go up and down, and even in the midst of a drawdown, we’re thinking about the catalysts that can turn it around.

Bond investors, on the other hand, are pessimists. They don’t care about new product releases or positive earnings reports. They don’t make more money when the company does well. They just take what’s promised them in the covenant.

Bond investors only care about downside risks.

And that’s one thing I like about Peter Tchir’s work. Peter was a bond guy before moving over to a macro firm that also covers geopolitics. His coworkers are former generals.

Yesterday, he wrote that the Fed seemed in line for 2 cuts this year. Also that the Fed was reducing its balance sheet, and there was progress in Ukraine. Combined with the lack of tariff headlines, he was becoming less bearish.

Until Trump’s latest tweet:

Peter’s concern is that while investors are concerned about uncertainty, they may not be “pricing in what seems more and more certain-global tariffs shocking global supply chains.”

He also writes that he’s “now not only nervous about U.S. stocks but am going to take profits on holdings that have worked, from FXI, KWEB, to some utilities, chip and energy (XLE included)."

He’s "worried about global de-risking here.”

The tweet was a reminder about the level of uncertainty and the market has not properly accounted for that yet.

Adding a link to Tchir's latest: Recession Risk Grows After Trump Turns Heads With Interest Rate 'Liberation' Post

Besides being funny, I wanted to share the drawdown chart because:

1. We’re in the midst of one
2. Investing is all about risk management, so drawdowns are more important than new highs

The S&P 500 has been off as much as 10% so far. That happens every year or two, so no big deal, in the grand scheme of things.

It’s what happens when we get past 10% that matters.

I first started thinking about drawdowns after watching this video from Robert Frey, formerly of Renaissance Technologies.

The video is long, but worth a watch. I haven't seen it in years, so it'll be playing in the background here today.

What I'm wondering, however, is whether you think about drawdowns and how you use them. Please let me know!

Something you should know about me is that even though I’m a Leo, I was born under the sign of the Bear.

That’s because I was born during a bear market, and many of the important educational and career events in my life have occurred during bear markets.

It was unavoidable, really. Since I was born, 97% of all days were not new highs. The market is almost always in a drawdown.

The funny thing is how many of my life events occurred during major bear markets.

On the day I was born, stocks were 14% off their all-time highs and on the way to a 36% loss.

I went to kindergarten the year that stocks lost 48%.

I was a college freshman during the 1987 crash.

I earned my MBA as the market fell 49% and my CMT charter when stocks fell 57%.

I made this connection in January 2020, as I was preparing to teach finance at CU Boulder. I told my coworkers to be prepared for something bad that year. I was cursed. And it worked. As Covid gripped the country, stocks fell 34%.

The good news is, I’m done. I won’t be going back to earn another degree and after four years of teaching at the university, I’m done. For now.

Based on my track record it’s probably safe to buy the dips forever more. Risk on!

So, please, enjoy this chart of the S&P 500 in blue, its drawdowns from all-time highs in red, and the weirdness that is the correlation between my life and bear markets.

Good Morning!

Stocks lower, bond prices rallying. 

It's hard to see, but the charts above are all 1-minute frequency since around midnight. 

S&P futures off 20.

TheStreet's Martin Baccardax says Trump is pushing for a rate cut and that investors are turning their eyes back to the tariffs, which are to begin on April 2nd, from here on to be known as Liberation Day.

Jobless claims coming up at 8:30. Earnings for MU, NKE, FDX due today.

Good morning, Diary Community! I’m filling in for Dougie today. So, let’s have some fun, and I promise not to watch the Death Star. Maybe Bloomberg, but not CNBC.

As you know, I live in Colorado and am sending this out while I’m just waking up. I’ll be at full power in a little bit.