Well, that wasn't very encouraging for the net long crowd. I had been able to keep my head above water for most of the session thanks to my positions in Palantir PLTR, SoFi Technology SOFI, Northrop Grumman NOC and CrowdStrike CRWD, but even those stocks had a great deal of trouble hanging on to this morning's lofty gains. 

The U.S. Dollar Index gained ground, but Treasuries were hit by profit takers after the president spoke of reciprocal tariffs on Friday and then said there would likely be an announcement early next week. Next week, as a reminder, the Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods will be implemented by Beijing.

This morning, the BLS released the results from its January employment surveys. The unemployment rate slipped, but wages were higher. On the other side of the token, it looks like managers are cutting hours in order to save on overhead. As for job creation, the past two months were revised higher by 100K positions, but the benchmark was revised lower by 589K jobs. So, I guess we're worse off than we thought, but conditions are better lately?

As for equities, the S&P 500 gave up 0.95%, led lower by Ulta Beauty ULTA and Air Products APD. Amazon AMZN tumbled 4.1% after guiding towards less revenue for the current quarter than Wall Street had been looking for. The Nasdaq Composite gave back 1.36%. Small-caps performed no better. Among the 11 S&P sector SPDR ETFs, only Energy shaded into the green on Friday, while 10 of these funds closed lower. The Discretionaries XLY closed down 1.93%, while Materials XLB closed 1.22% in the hole.

Next week, Fed Chair Powell will deliver his semi-annual testimony to the House and Senate committees. Oh, and of course, we'll have another full slate of earnings releases to contend with.

Once again, it has been a pleasure to fill in for Dougie and hang with his crowd today. We played some Super Bowl trivia, but spring training is nearly here. Next time we do this, it will be back to baseball trivia. 

Have a nice weekend, everyone. May God bless you and keep your families safe until we meet up again. Enjoy the big game.

Energy Fuels UUUU

This is a name I've been building a long position in. The upside pivot is $5.90.

For Exxon Mobil XOM a double bottom reversal is potentially under development with a $113 pivot. 

Price Target: $130.

Q) In Super Bowl XXXVII at the conclusion of the 2002 regular season, Oakland QB Rich Gannon threw five interceptions that day, a Super Bowl record that still stands. Who holds the career Super Bowl record for interceptions thrown?

A) John Elway of the Denver Broncos threw eight interceptions in five Super Bowls in the 1980s and 1990s. Denver was 2-3 in those games. Elway just edged out two other QBs for the dubious distinction. Jim Kelly threw seven picks in four Super Bowl losses with the Buffalo Bills in the early 1990s. Craig Morton threw seven picks in two Super Bowl losses back in the 1970s, one with the Dallas Cowboys and one with the Denver Broncos. 

In Super Bowl XXXVII at the conclusion of the 2002 regular season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defeated the Oakland Raiders 48-21. Tampa Bay Safety Dexter Jackson was the game's MVP largely due to his two interceptions. Oakland QB Rich Gannon threw five interceptions that day, a Super Bowl record that still stands. 

Who holds the career Super Bowl record for interceptions thrown? Gannon is 6th on the career list even though that was his lone SB appearance. 

From The Fly:

Bill Ackman says now owns 33.3M shares of Uber 11:26 UBER Bill Ackman, CEO of Pershing Square, stated in a post on X: "Beginning in early January, we began acquiring a position in @Uber. Today, we own 33.3 million shares. I have been a long-term customer and admirer of Uber beginning when Edward Norton showed me the app in its early days. I was also fortunate to be a day-one investor in the company through a small investment in a venture fund. While a great business, Uber suffered from erratic management. Since he joined the company in 2017, Dara Khosrowshahi CEO has done a superb job in transforming the company into a highly profitable and cash-generative growth machine. We believe that Uber is one of the best managed and highest quality businesses in the world. Remarkably, it can still be purchased at a massive discount to its intrinsic value. This favorable combination of attributes is extremely rare, particularly for a large cap company. We will have more to share about our thinking on the company shortly."

Go Alex, Go Alex, Go !!!!

More rattling than anything the BLS released this morning was the preliminary release of the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment survey for February. It's quite obvious from this report that U.S. consumers are on edge. The headline sentiment number printed at 67.8, down 4.6% from January and down 11.8% from February 2024. I could say that February is the weakest month for sentiment since the cows came home, but the truth is that this item was even weaker this past August.

Just as disappointing was the 7.2% drop in current economic conditions since January and the 13.5% drop in those conditions since February 2024. That, however, is not the "real kick in the pants." That title goes to the one-year-out inflation expectations. According to this survey, U.S. consumers now expect inflation to hit 4.3% in one year. That was up from just 3.3% in January and is the least optimistic consumers have been on inflation since November 2023.

* The heavier the Super Bowl advertising by a company or industry, the more likely its stock or sector will underperform....and vice versa. If an industry is under represented it may outperform the major indexes.

* A striking development: Automobile ads only total two spots, while mobile services (Verizon and T-Mobile (both of which appeared last year), entertainment and large cap technology (Google, Microsoft and Snapchat) are abandoning Super Bowl advertisements in 2025.

* On the negative side and for the second year in a row, my 2025 'Stock Market Super Bowl Indicator' calls for caution in consumer products companies that, again, dominate (60%) all advertising spots. (I remain short a number of consumer related names - KO, WGO, PEP, FIGS, etc).

* For the third year in a row, Apple is the halftime sponsor, uh oh! (I remain short).

* My 2023 and 2024 'Stock Market Super Bowl Indicator' also called for caution on Apple.

* My 2022 'Stock Market Super Bowl Indicator' called for a bitcoin short as cryptocurrency companies were conspicuous advertisers. That was quite prescient as bitcoin more than halved last year and its largest player, FTX, filed for bankruptcy. Cryptocurrency companies are conspicuous by their absence this year after making a splash last year).

* A year earlier, my 2021 'My Super Bowl Indicator' said to short beer and food stocks -- as well as Robinhood -- and to buy auto stocks which were underrepresented for the first time in year. Beer and food were indeed 2021 market laggards and Robinhood's shares peaked at $83, and are now $11. On the other hand, my Indicator said to buy under represented auto stocks -- Ford's stock rose by about +135% and General Motors' shares gained about +39% in 2021, far in excess of the +26% advance in the S&P Index.

Super Bowl LIX (2025)

On Sunday, one of the grandest sporting events of the year will take place: Super Bowl 59.

Back in January 2000, I created a brand new stock market Super Bowl indicator as a contrary indicator, very similar to the cover of Time magazine.

My indicator dictates that the more intense the Super Bowl TV advertising by a group of companies, particularly in a specific industry, the more likely the stocks of those companies will perform poorly in the year ahead. Conversely, a reduction in an industry's Super Bowl commercials augurs well for the stocks in that sector.

My great pal, Barron's Alan Abelson (RIP), was kind enough to include and highlight my newly minted indicator in his "Up and Down Wall Street" column during the weekend of the 2000 Super Bowl -- and writing this makes me so nostalgic regarding my weekly conversations with him.

Twenty-four years ago, my Stock Market Super Bowl Indicator gave a clear warning alarm to the end of the Dot-com bubble.

As the late Alan Abelson wrote at the time:

"As it happens, last week's tech wreck was accurately forecast by a remarkable new stock-market indicator, one we're proud to print for the first time anywhere, the Stock Market Super Bowl Indicator.

Before you start yapping about it being old hat -- or old helmet -- we respectfully suggest you cool it. Pure and simple, our new indicator has nothing to do with the old Super Bowl indicator. Unlike the latter, its predictive power doesn't depend on the outcome of the Super Bowl or, more specifically, whether the winner represents the National Football League's American Conference or the National Conference.

Our brand-new Stock Market Super Bowl Indicator is a contrary indicator, kind of like the cover of Time. Its critical components are the commercials carried on television coverage of the event and the identity of the companies doing the advertising. Its virtue is not as a forecaster for the market as a whole, but for individual sectors of the market.

The indicator is the handiwork of Doug Kass, a kindly hedge-fund operator who, despite a propensity to short quantum leapers, wound up last year with an improbable performance matching Nasdaq's improbable performance.

Simply put, the more intense the Super Bowl TV advertising by a group of companies, the more likely the stocks of those companies -- and others of a kindred ilk -- will do poorly in the year ahead. For 2000, we're sorry to report, the indicator is flashing red for the Internet crew.

By Doug's count, roughly 12 of the 30 companies shelling out an average of $2 million for 30-second spots are dot.coms. That's four times the number of 'Net outfits that made their pitch on Super Bowl TV last year and compares with only one in each of the prior two years.

What's more, for the first time, an Internet company, E*Trade, is sponsoring the half-time show. That's known in locker-room lingo as piling on.

If nothing else, the greater the number of look-alike or sound-alike companies doing the shilling, the less the impact of the individual shills. And in fact, there seems to be more than a modicum of evidence that for the viewer, the link between the commercial and the sponsoring Web company barely registers.

Making the auguries all the darker for those dozen dotcoms is the sad history of the sole 'Net TV advertiser during Super Bowls XXXI and XXXII, autobytel.com. A '99 IPO, the stock peaked at $48 and, last we looked, was a hair under 17.

Without Wall Street, Silicon Valley would not have been able to remove the burden of salaries from its operating statements and substitute stock options for cash compensation. Without the lovely boost to earnings afforded by the incredible lightness of labor costs, earnings growth would be considerably less, and so the multiples awarded that growth would be merely ridiculous instead of absurd. There would be only a quarter as many West Coast billionaires and half as many millionaires.

In like manner, since the vast bulk of Internet companies are bereft of even a hint of cash flow, Wall Street has, via stock offerings, endowed them with the means of promoting their wares, not only on TV during the Super Bowl breaks but also in newspapers and magazines, on billboards and in subway cars and every other space known to advertising man.

If, indeed, we are rapidly reaching the point of cognitive congestion where the consumer is under such assault from so many dot.coms that they have begun to merge in his psyche into one big indivisible glob, that spells trouble in capital letters. And not only for the 'Net companies, but also for the media on which that vast flow of lucre has been lavished."

- Alan Abelson, Barron's (January 2000)

Of course, the rest was history, as one of the largest stock market declines, especially of a technology and Internet kind, occurred during the subsequent few years.

For 30 Seconds of Your Time

Here is the recent Super Bowl commercial price history (30-second spot):



2019: $5,300,000



2020: $5,600,000



2021: $5,500,000



2022: $6,500,000 Estimated. (Ads were sold out on Feb 3. Several 30-second spots went for as high as $7 million!)

2023: $7,000,000 (One 30-second spot went for as high as $10 million!)

2024: $7,000.000

2025: $7.000,000 (10 30-second spots went for $8 million!)

Here is a complete list of 2025 Super Bowl advertisers. Super Bowl Commercials Lineup 2025: Here's The Full List Of Ads

In total there are 55 separate ads this year representing 50 different companies (some have multiple commercials).

For the third time since 2013 PepsiCo PEP is not sponsoring The Half Time Show - Apple AAPL is taking its place as they have since 2022.

Reviewing Super Bowl Advertisers of the Recent Past

2021's Super Bowl Advertisers

Although nothing will top 2020's Super Bowl Halftime show featuring Shakira's tongue, 2021 marked another year of unique and weird ads - e.g., Tide focusing on a Jason Alexander's sweatshirt, and Cheetos dropping Ashton Kutcher's first single - a total pissa of an ad #Itwasn'tme!

Much like literally everything else, Super Bowl LV advertising was affected by the coronavirus -- with huge names like Coke KO and Pepsi PEP sitting this one out, although Pepsi continued to sponsor The Half Time Show.

In total, there were about 38 advertisers, some with multiple product ads, consisting of only three auto companies, 12 food, eight beer companies, four technology companies, four in financial services, nine consumer product companies - and of course... drum roll... Robinhood HOOD !

For the tenth time, Pepsi was the sponsor for the half time Super Bowl ceremonies.

I concluded in 2021 that the proliferation of beer and food companies compared to previous years - could pressure those sectors over the balance of 2021 . On the other, auto stocks are underrepresented vis-a-vis prior Super Bowls. They proved to be great buys.

2022's Super Bowl Advertisers: The Same Old, Same Old (Except for FTX and Crypto.com!)

There were roughly 40 companies that purchased commercial time to advertise in last year's Super Bowl.

There were all the familiar names that seem to repeat annually -- Budweiser and Michelob  BUD, automobile companies GM, KIA, Carvana CVNA, BMW, Nissan NSANF, the Avocados from Mexico, Hellman's and Pringles, Booking.com and Expedia EXPE and so on -- nothing new on the horizon, except...

There were two conspicuous and new entrants that are forking up the big bucks - both in the cryptocurrency field:

Cryptocurrency Exchange FTX Joins Super Bowl for First Time

Two years ago I wrote that cryptocurrency is here to stay. With Crypto.com buying naming rights to the Staples Center and NBA star Kevin Durant partnering with Coinbase, the new technology and sporting world have formed a fast and friendly relationship. Cryptocurrency exchange FTX is getting in on the action, purchasing a Super Bowl Ad for LVI, but it has not released any creative details yet. Valued at $25 billion, FTX recently purchased the naming rights to an arena in Miami for $135 million. The company has also recently named stars Tom Brady, Gisele Bündchen, Stephen Curry and Shohei Ohtani brand ambassadors.

Crypto.com Adds to Cryptocurrency Blitz; Will Air First Super Bowl Commercial Ever

Cryptocurrency and sports have continued to develop a relationship and that burgeoning partnership is reaching a fever pitch. Cryptocurrency exchange Crypto.com has announced that it will be running its first Super Bowl ad according to the Wall Street Journal. It's another notch on the brand's belt as it recently paid a reported $700 million for the naming rights to the Staples Center Arena in Los Angeles. Crypto.comalso became a sponsor for the 2021 Coppa Italia Final earlier this year. Actor Matt Damon appeared in a spot for the brand in late October.

The rest was history -- at least from the standpoint of an historical decline in the price of bitcoin and the failure of FTX.

Relatedly, in 2022 I warned about celebrity endorsements:

Oct 03, 2022 ' 08:30 AM EDT DOUG KASS

Beware of Celebrity Endorsements of Stocks and Other Asset Classes

I had previously highlighted the absurdity of Matt Damon's Super Bowl (ad) sponsorship of crypto.com in Barron's earlier in the year and Kim Kardashian's entry into the private equity field in Barron's last month (Randy Forsyth's Up and Down Wall Street column):

Housing Bubble and Kim Kardashian: More Troubling News for Markets by Randall W. Forsyth Follow Updated Sept. 9, 2022 1:31 pm ET/ Original Sept. 9, 2022 10:26 am ET

Can there be a better sign of a market top than when celebrities pile into it? Especially celebs whose main talent is to appeal to the public's tastes, or lack thereof.

While they might be acutely attuned to what's happening in fashion, music, or the movies, they can be late in latching onto financial trends to which their sole connection is an insatiable desire to wring as much money as possible from the zeitgeist.

All of which is brought to mind by news that Kim Kardashian is launching a new private-equity venture. Truth be told, I don't know what she or the rest of her reality show family is famous for, other than for being famous. But Kim has leveraged her millions of followers on social media to become a huge entrepreneur, with interests ranging from women's undergarments to faux meat. That indeed is a talent not to be discounted.

Her entry into private equity recalls other celebrities' forays into financial spheres just ahead of those markets' top ticks. Most recently, all manner of celebs plunged into cryptocurrencies, most notably actor Matt Damon, who touted Crypto.com in a now infamous Super Bowl ad in which he intoned how "fortune favors the brave."

Doug Kass, the head of Seabreeze Partners-who flagged the prevalence of cryptocurrency ads at the time-further pointed out in an email this past week how other worthies, from rapper 50 Cent to quarterback Aaron Rodgers to New York City Reality star Kim Kardashian and former Carlyle Group investor Jay Sammons have launched SKKY Partners, a private-equity firm.

Private equity hasn't suffered big losses. But, according to a Sept. 8 note from Citi Research's quantitative global macro strategy group, private asset prices tend to lag those of the publicly traded markets, which are quoted second by second on screens. Weakness in public equity markets portend lower private-asset valuations, according to the report. Kim's entrance into the rarefied world of private equity may be about as propitiously timed as Barbra Streisand's furious pursuit of initial public offerings at the height of dotcom mania in 1999. (Babs told Fortune back then that she had quadrupled her money in America Online shares, but averred that she didn't pretend to be a maven "like the guy in Barron's last week who can analyze all the companies and so forth.")

If private markets do get marked down one to two quarters after the public ones, as Citi says they have historically, that points to similar trouble for the former. I wouldn't shed any tears for Kim K. or any other A-lister able to get past the velvet ropes into private equity funds.

Bottom Line

An analysis of 2025 Super Bowl advertisements again shows a larger-than-normal concentration of consumer products commercials -- with about 60% of the ads consumer-related. (I remain short a number of consumer products companies - including Pepsi PEP and Coca-Cola KO)).

But the real story is that automobile manufacturers are only in two spots (Jeep and Ram), while mobile services (Verizon VZ and T-Mobile TMUS (both of which appeared last year), entertainment and large cap technology (Alphabet GOOGL, Microsoft MSFT and Snapchat SNAP) are abandoning Super Bowl advertisements in 2025. The Indicator suggests these stocks might be considered for purchase.

For the third year in a row, Apple is replacing PepsiCo as the half-time show sponsor, we might again consider a cautious view towards the company. (I remain short AAPL)

Here is my favorite commercial this year! When Sally Met Hellmann's :30 - Super Bowl Commercial 2025

Enjoy the game!!

US Job Growth Slowed in January After 2024 Downward Revision - Bloomberg

I had Amazon AMZN breaking out of an ascending triangle pattern (which is bullish) with a $234 pivot. Now, though, recent trade has started to look like a rising wedge, which is a pattern of bearish reversal.... 

Still, the shares seem to be hanging onto their 50-day simple moving average (SMA). My plan is to add on this dip, as close to that line as possible today, but I will hold off from doing anything bold or crazy until I see the jobs numbers.

S&P Futures: +1 vs FV.

Nasdaq Futures: +3 vs FV.

Russell 2K Futures: -1 vs FV.

US Dollar Index: +0.11%

US Ten Year Note: 4.44%

US Two Year Note: 4.24%

US Three Month T-Bill: 4.32%

WTI Crude: $&1.13, +0.74%.

Gold: $2,889, +0.44%

Silver: $32.69, +0.18%

Bitcoin: $97,646, +0.8%.

It is I, Sarge. Jobs Day! Are you kidding me? I mean, I think you all know that I enjoy filling in for Dougie when called upon to do so. Who wouldn't? On "Jobs Day" though? That's like an added bonus. 

Okay, we've got a lot to get ready for. Amazon's AMZN guidance was a little on the light side, and the stock traded lower overnight despite reporting a strong quarter. Pinterest PINS took off after the close. How about that? Oh, and Palantir PLTR was simply Palantiring on Thursday afternoon. Rock and stinkin' roll!

Shake out those cobwebs. Rip that grape away from that stinking mass you call a pillow. Fill that thirsty vessel you call a body with some caffeine and let's get after it. It's been a wild week. Let me correct that. It's been another wild week. Let's get this done. Those worthless pukes over at the Bureau of Labor Statistics are going to unleash their unholy numbers at 08:30 ET.

For we will not show fear, we will give no ground. We shall stand back to back, sabers unsheathed and pray that glory finds us this day. Now, go get that cup of Joe. Meet you back here in a bit. I want you highly motivated, truly dedicated and rough, tough, can't get enough. Let Friday begin.