The buying is now starting to get panicky and market froth is, arguably, starting to percolate.

I am calling it a day and a week.

Much thanks for reading my Diary this week.

I hope you found my views and analysis helpful.

Enjoy the weekend.



Be safe.

Its going to be an interesting 12 months for the U.S. economy:

Scott Galloway's No Mercy/No Malice... "The Short Form War."

This could hurt banking legislation for cannabis - as it will likely meet Republican resistance:

Going out to a late lunch with a friend.

Quickie, back at 2:00 pm

From Peter: 

From the BLS, "Employment in manufacturing decreased by 35,000 in October, reflecting a decline of 33,000 in motor vehicles and parts that was largely due to strike activity."

From Peter:

Payrolls in October totaled 150k, 30k less than expected and notably too the two prior months were revised down by 101k. The private sector hired a net 99k which was 46k below expectations. Also reflecting a weakening labor market was the other metric, the household survey, which saw a job decline of 348k and combined with a 201k person drop in the size of the labor force sent the unemployment rate up by one tenth to 3.9% which is the highest since January 2022. The all in U6 measure saw a 2 tenths increase to 7.2%.

Likely overstating even the weaker than expected level of hiring was that the birth/death model added 412k. While that was about in line with October 2022 add of 455k, it is well above the October 2019 add of 274k. This figure always overstates job hiring at the peak and understates it at the trough of an economic cycle.

Also of note, and pointing to the softness in the data relative to expectations, the work week fell to 34.3 from 34.4 and that matches the lowest since April 2020. Hourly earnings was as expected when we include the September revision and combined with hours worked saw average weekly earnings down .1% m/o/m and up by 3.2% y/o/y which reflects both tough comps and moderation in itself.

Another notable part of this report was the continued rise in 'multiple job holders' which was up 205k to the most since July 2019 and we know that is reflecting the need for more money.

Here's another data point reflecting the job softening, the diffusion index, measuring the number of industries adding workers vs those losing them. It fell a sharp 9.4 pts to 52, nearing the breakeven and that is the lowest since the Covid shutdowns.

The participation rate fell one tenth m/o/m to 62.7% and the employment to population ratio was down by two tenths to 60.2 and that matches the lowest of the year. The key 25-54 aged participation rate fell by 2 tenths to 83.3%, matching the lowest since March.

There was the highest number of part time workers because of 'slack work' since May 2022, and follows the drop in hours worked.

Manufacturing was a particular spot of softness as we know this sector is in a recession. Jobs shed totaled 35k which is the most in one month since April 2021. Construction offset some of that with a gain of 23k. On the service side, private education/health led the hiring, as is typical, with an increase of 89k.



It was very mixed elsewhere as leisure/hospitality added 19k and professional/business services added 15k but there was basically no job growth in trade/transport, retail and financial and another job loss in information (which includes tech). Temp jobs of 7k were added after a string of monthly losses. State and local governments did most of the hiring on the public side.

Bottom line, there were a lot of areas of labor market softness in this report as stated above and really across the board. The 3 month pace of hiring is now averaging 204k vs the 6 month average of 206k, the one yr average of 243k and the 2022 average of 399k. As the government added a bunch of people over the last few months, the moderation is more noted in the private sector.

"History is filled with almosts. With those who almost adventured and almost achieved but ultimately for them it proved to much. Then there are others, the ones who embraced the moment and commit. In these moments of truth, these mere mortals, just like you and me. And, as they peer over the edge, they calm their minds and their nerves with four simple words that have whispered since the Romans... Fortune favors the brave."

-Matt Damon, FTX commercial

Yesterday Sam Bankman-Fried, FTX's founder and chairman was convicted of seven counts of fraud and faces up to 100 years in prison. 

Here is a good summary of the rise and fall of Elizabeth Holmes in cargo shorts (Sam Bankman-Fried) in a recent 60 Minutes episode. 

As I summarized in a November 22, 2022 column in my Diary investors, the beautiful people (e.g., Vogue's Editor in Chief Anna Wintour), government officials (Senator Mitch McConnell, President Biden, etc.), sports figures (Tom "My boy Sam" BradyAll 3 Tom Brady FTX commercial ' FTX Tom Brady and Gisele Bundchen - YouTube , Shaq, Steph Curry), actors (Larry David, Matt Damon) and the business media (CNBC, Et al.) were duped in the weirdest, but to some of us, the most obvious of frauds:

* Once again investors have been duped by "an empty wagon" - this one was named FTX and was "managed" by Sam Bankman-Fried

Most of the cheerleaders, above, were paid off and were terribly conflicted.

The business media cheered though the "warning signs" (some of which are discussed in this column) were abundant.

The most egregious and vivid example of poor reporting, cheerleading and the absence of healthy (and critical) skepticism in the interviewing process was seen in this gushing Kate Rooney interview on CNBC with Sam Bankman-Fried which occurred only four weeks before SBF's indictment.

But there were many others, especially in the business media that cheered SBF (and his celebrity) on.

The few critical and objective critics, like Keith McCullough and my old friend Mark Cohodes, were confined to Twitter (and other less conspicuous venues) and did not have a broader platform for distribution of their skeptical views in the business media:

I continued with my criticism one year ago:

* There will be more revelations and more losses due to counter party failures and vanished cryptos in the endless tentacles of an interconnected crypto sphere

* There were plenty of FTX enablers (many of whom were conflicted) - including strategists, commentators and members of the business media

* Sam Bankman-Fried was neither the JP Morgan or the White Knight of Crypto -he was just another empty wagon and fraud

Some were on to SBF's scam, but like my criticism, there was little coverage: 

Keith McCullough on X: "How pathetic (and sad) is it that the Old Wall Media who got paid to pump #FTXscam and #SBF to The People... is the same media trying to get paid on their click-bait tonight as they are all found guilty? @AlderLaneEggs @EpsilonTheory @WilliamCohan @gmorgenson https://t.co/ppPuSMJ284" / X (twitter.com)

I continued a year ago:

* Larry David had the ticket, FTX wasn't a safe way to get into crypto - it wasn't like the invention of the wheel, the fork, the toilet, coffee, the right to vote, the light bulb, the dishwasher, putting a man on the Moon - it wasn't even portable music

* It wasn't new, 'It stinks' - one of the worst ideas Larry ever heard... traders/investors should have "curbed their enthusiasm"

In this column I called out FTX/Fried's enablers and I hope that a lesson has been learned (Hint: Most will not!) 









"Like I was saying its FTX, its a safe and easy way to get into crypto... Eh, I don't think so. And I am never wrong about this stuff. Never!"



Larry David, here. 

"Bitcoin is evil and stupid.... Crypto is an investment in nothing and the guy who's trying to sell you an investment in nothing says, 'I have a special kind of nothing that's difficult to make more of. It is an open sere full of malicious organisms.'"

- Charlie Munger, Berkshire Hathaway, here. 

"What we have learned from history is that we haven't learned from history."

- Benjamin Disraeli, former exchequer of England



"As my friend Jim Chanos likes to say, "Legal Fraud" happens in America... Until The People lose a LOT of money."



- Keith McCullough



FTX's epic failure has plumbed the deaths of human investing folly.

It is singularly the fastest destruction of such a large amount of capital ($32 billion) of all time:

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FTX is Bernie Madoff, Theranos, Baldwin United, Enron, Worldcom, Tyco International, Bre-X Minerals, HealthSouth, ZZZZ Best, the dot.com stocks (that collapsed in the early 2000s), the Covid gewgaws (of 2020-21) and Cathie Wood's portfolio -- all wrapped into one big slice of "Group Stink":

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Here is an example of some (FTX) "stuff" you can't make up:

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I Blame Many... Especially The Business Media Who Blindly Paraded Sam Bankman-Fried to Celebrity Status

* Much like they have done with Theranos' Elizabeth Holmes and ARK Invest's Cathie Woods

Cryptocurrencies were confidently pushed by leading market strategists Fundstrat's Tom Lee believes Bitcoin will Hit $200,000 in 2022 , commentators in the business media - who, benefiting from the commercial relationship, delivered puff pieces and pitched softballs in interviews with Sam Bankman-Fried FTX still has $1 billion to deploy, says CEO Sam Bankman-Fried - blindly paraded Sam Bankman-Fried to celebrity status and by high profile investors and private equity firms.

And crypto was pushed by the two pied pipers of crypto, Galaxy Investors' Michael Novogratz and Micro Strategy's Michael Saylor, both of whose previous business failures/blowups were well known but ignored.

FTX/crypto went mainstream and even engulfed the then "golden couple" of model Gisele Bunchen and NFL quarterback Tom Brady - who took an equity stake in FTX last year and appeared in a prominent television commercial... who were investors in FTX.

As I have noted in my Diary and in Barron's, Matt Damon (during the Super Bowl) erroneously told us  MATT DAMON ENDORSES CRYPTOCURRENCY  that fortune favors the brave. Here is my early October column on the subject, "Beware of Celebrity Endorsements of Stocks and Other Asset Classes." 

At least "Curb Your Enthusiasm's" Larry David had the ticket.

As noted above, arguably also contributing to the ridiculously inflated valuation of FTX, NFTs, other crypto dealers and phony cryptocurrencies, were the large amounts of money that went into the advertising coffers of leading business media platforms.

The amount of FTX's influencing peddling was extraordinary - it had little bounds, ranging well beyond the media and into entertainment, sports and politics.

Here is an example of the influence peddling incorporated in outsized contributions to individuals seeking office from both parties:

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Calling Out Sam Bankman-Fried's Enablers

There were numerous conflicts of interest by those that had been compensated directly or indirectly by FTX.

Not calling them out by name lets the con artists off the hook - as people's life savings have been lost.

I can't help not to name one particular individual - because he is among the most self confident, who is never in doubt and often wrong - he was one of the few ones who confidently and delightedly publicly disclosed his role as a spokesperson:

"In managing the decision of which projects to invest in - I am very fortunate my deal flow is amazing. I have to disclose I am a paid spokes person to FTX and a shareholder there, too. I am a big advocate for Sam because he has two parents that are compliance lawyers. If there is any place that I can be and not get into trouble its going to be FTX."

- Kevin O'Leary (Mr. "Not So" Wonderful)

Here is more:

"If there is ever a place I can be and I am not going to get in trouble, it is going to be at FTX"



Mr. Wonderful @KevinOlearyTV

- GuruLeaks (@Guruleaks1) November 11, 2022

But most of all, the FTX and the collapse in cryptocurrencies represented hubris, a loss of common sense, the absence of analysis - in a financial world that, these days, seems to know everything about price and nothing about value - and embracing of "group stink" by even some of the most sophisticated investors or our era (Paul Tudor Jones, Sequoia, Tiger Global, Third Point, Soft Bank, Lightspeed and Circle). Factbox: What are FTX's investors saying? - Reuters. 

There were other signs. like this:

In the months leading up to its demise, FTX spent hundreds of millions of dollars on a marketing spree - which included a 19 year sponsorship as they purchased the naming rights last year to The Miami Arena, home of the NBA's Miami Heat, another warning signpost:

Within that sign there were other indications:

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Didn't investors see the signs  when Celsius, Voyager Digital and venture fund Three Arrows Capital all failed months ago? 

"Next time I come on I am going to wear a Sam Bankman-Fried tee shirt."

- The Mooch on CNBC

Wasn't the nonsensical (and synergy-lacking) purchase by FTX Ventures of 30% of A's SkyBridge Capital a sign?

"What people are missing is the closeness of our two firms... Sam as a person and the culture that he is setting for FTX and the long term vision... We put $40 million into bitcoin on our balance sheet. if you understand the 1907 crisis when JP Morgan stepped into the crisis. Sam is the JP Morgan of our day. He will be at the top of the crypto food chain."

- Anthony Scaramucci

Or El Salvador's embracing of bitcoin as a parallel currency. 

More Lessons Learned

Unfortunately, as has been the case throughout financial history - it is only a few outsiders that reveal the truth. Like Harry Markopolos who revealed the Madoff fraud and Jim Chanos who uncovered frauds in Baldwin United and Enron. And recently, Marc Cohodes, Mike Lewitt and Keith McCullough that saw right through Sam Bankman-Fried's BS.

Cryptocurrency regulation has been lacking and the absence of such regulation has likely led to the FTX fraud.

But, to me, the lesson to investors, is to perform better due diligence and to not foolishly jump on speculative band wagons without doing research and considering "the value you get" (source: Warren Buffett).

I have been an outspoken bear, even entitling one of my columns, I Call BS.

In light of FTX's bankruptcy I feel it is important for me to post my prior columns on the illusion of cryptocurrencies - here is May 11th's "I Remain at Outspoken Bitcoin Bear".

Bottom Line



"Virtue sometimes pretends,. Vice is always sincere."



- Mason Cooley

FTX was a monumental failure - a failure of accountability and transparency, filled with numerous supporters possessing clear but often unexposed conflicts of interests and driven by fraudulent actions - "borrowing" customer funds and creating FTX coins and using/showing them as reserves, among other nonsensical and bogus moves.

With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present and thus a clearer vision of the future.

Learn from history and, importantly, who you can trust as a resource in your trading and investing process.

Be independent of view and do your analysis.

Always be a skeptic.

Be Larry David.

Because (it) FTX stinks like fish from the head - as Larry David reminded us in the television commercial.

Sam Bankman-Fried was not the next Warren Buffett, he was the next Bernie Madoff.

As Joe Frazier once said "An empty wagon makes the most noise."

Speaking of The Oracle of Omaha, I have long concurred with his partner Charlie Munger who described Bitcoin as stupid - because it is very likely to go to zero - evil - as it undermines our currency system - and made him look foolish compared to somebody else - like the Communist leader in China who correctly banned Bitcoin. Here is a great video of Warren and Charlie discussing bitcoin at this year's Berkshire Annual Meeting.

P.S. - You may not make any money reading this column, but you will likely save a lot of money in the future - if you pay heed to the signs and analysis!

From Peter:

I want to start by saying that the Grand Slam Breakfast comes from Denny's as I mistakenly said IHOP yesterday. The combination though is great at both establishments.

Rather than wait until November 16th to hear Target's assessment of the US consumer, Brian Cornell was able to give it to us yesterday in an interview with Becky Quick on CNBC:



"Their managing that budget really carefully and it's certainly pressuring discretionary spending, they are buying less stuff, even within food and beverage. We look at overall retail spending, just look at the top line and you say, alright there is a healthy consumer and they are spending but, even in food and beverage categories, over the last few quarters the units, the number of items they are buying has been declining. So, they are even tightening up their spending in those categories but in discretionary goods we've seen seven consecutive quarters of both dollars and units declining.



"You're buying less apparel, less items for your home, fewer toys. You're seeing some of the pressure in those categories. In categories like toys, we're seeing some pretty significant declines but the other trend we're seeing is, and we've seen for several years now is the American consumer is enjoying those seasonal moments. Whether it's halloween, or the summer moments going back to mother's day and father's day, they are still enjoying those moments and they keep looking for newness."

That doesn't sound like a 5% economy and it's because we're not in one.

Where consumers are spending, STILL, is on live entertainment. Here is what Live Nation said last night, a stock we still own.

"As you can see from our results, the structural tailwinds behind our business are accelerating faster than ever. And as the fan demand truly globalizes and artists are able to perform more broadly than ever, this is fueling an unprecedented global desire for concerts. This has happened in all levels with both casual and die-hard fans and from small clubs to massive stadium events."

To a question on how sustainable this is with worries about the spending habits of the consumer, the answer, "So, Q3 was a a very strong volume quarter...we're seeing that fan demand consistent globally. 90% of the growth came from concerts, which again tells you that the fans are looking to go to the concerts...the quarter was about the tremendous volume and tremendous fan demand that flowed through Ticketmaster. Looking then more specifically at just October, if we look at our Ticketmaster platform for the month of October, ticket sales were up again y/o/y relative to last year. They were up double digits in North America. So we're seeing no sign of weakness."

Also, "Another metric that we look at is we look at just for our US concerts division, we track every week y/o/y sales. And, again, over the past 5 weeks, since the end of the quarter, those sales continue to be up double digits. So, we're seeing no weakness at all."

From the CEO, "I have weekly booking calls with over 40 presidents around the world and we take both from clubs up to stadiums and festivals. And we have not seen anything taper off in any sense or on sales for next year, whether it's an early festival across the pond, or whether it's a club tour playing in Pittsburgh on a Tuesday...So we are not seeing any pullback in any way from a club to a stadium tour from Milan to Argentina right now. The consumer supply/demand seems to be consistent across the globe, small to big."

Booking Holdings also reported and highlighted the desire to spend on leisure but they were a bit more cautious, in part due to the Middle East mess.



Not surprisingly, "We saw a significant negative impact on our business in Israel (on a booker plus inbound travel basis is about 1% of their global room nights). And there was some impact on travel trends outside of Israel (The Middle East, including Turkey and Egypt, on a booker basis is about 4% of their global room nights). Nevertheless, we were encouraged to see global room night growth improve towards the end of the month...Overall, we continue to see resiliency in global leisure travel demand, and as we take a very early look ahead to 2024, we see strong growth on the books for travel, that will take place in the first quarter of next year, though a high percentage of these bookings are cancellable. Given current trends, we expect customers and consumer will continue to prioritize travel over other discretionary spend in 2024."

Shifting back to the goods side of consumer spend, this is what Etsy said:

"As you all know, there's been significant pressure on consumer discretionary product spending, as high inflation, elevated interest and mortgage rates, splurges on YOLO experiences, and declining savings balances have meant that there's little left over for many consumers after paying for food, gas, rent, and child care. These issues are magnified for lower income buyers, and we fell the impact on the Etsy marketplace. We're also experiencing an increasingly competitive retail environment with a very heavy emphasis on deep discounting and in some cases competitors investing at potentially unsustainable levels in marketing and promotions."

As seen at Starbucks, people still want their coffee, especially the Pumpkin Spike Latte. "Demand for Starbucks remains strong around the world. Here in the US, our largest market, we saw momentum sustained throughout the quarter. Revenue for the quarter was up a record 12%, underpinned by 8% comps...Customers remain loyal to their favorite fall menu classics that have stood the test of time, including the Pumpkin Spice Latter which celebrated its 20th anniversary."

"Customer demand for us remains strong. We're not really seeing any change in the sentiment in our customer base at this time."

All Apple needed to say was this to see its stock drop to the low $170's, "Despite having one less week this year, we expect our December quarter, total company revenue to be similar to last year."

Shifting gears, and to the pernicious impact of a higher interest rate reality compared to the 15 yrs prior of microscopic ones, the FT yesterday talked about what Moody's uncovered. "Moody's analysts have warned that by year's end, more than half of single B minus rated US companies will not be generating enough cash to cover their capital expenditure while servicing their debt. That means those businesses will be forced to dip into their cash reserves to cover their spending."

And more, "The interest coverage ratio for these companies could reach .91 by December from 1.32 at the end of 2022, according to Moody's, and could fall further still. A figure below one indicates earnings are not sufficient to cover interest costs." The long lags of tight monetary policy will continue on.

Overseas, China's private sector Caixin October services PMI was 50.4 vs 50.2 in September.



They said, "Business activity across China's service sector continued to expand only marginally during October. Subdued activity levels coincided with a further slowdown in new order growth, which was the weakest in the year to date despite a faster improvement in new export business. At the same time, services companies took a more cautious stance on hiring, with employment levels unchanged after eight months of expansion." Also of note, "Expectations regarding the yr ahead outlook for activity meanwhile slipped to the lowest level since early 2020 amid concerns that sluggish market conditions could persist in the months ahead."

Singapore's PMI slipped to 53.7 from 54.2 and Hong Kong's was 48.9 vs 49.6. India remains a standout but their service PMI dropped to 58.4 from 61.

I generally agree with Goldman Sachs' take on Paramount Global PARA - I eliminated the stock near the close yesterday:

Paramount Global: 3Q23 Review: DTC losses improving as linear headwinds persist

We have 3 key takeaways from PARA's 2Q23 results. 1) DTC losses were a material beat in the quarter, and PARA now expects losses in this segment to improve in 2023, a year ahead of plan. 2) PARA continues to expect a slower recovery in TV Media ad revenues in 2H23 and is striving to offset these headwinds via cost savings. 3) PARA expects continued FCF strength in 4Q23 owing to the ongoing writers' and actors' strikes, although we believe some of these benefits will reverse in 2024 as production resumes.

We have not changed our view that PARA's rich IP and scaled content production assets could support a sizable streaming business, over time. However, we believe the market is unlikely to further underwrite this long-term potential owing to the difficult near-term operating environment and PARA's premium vs. its media peers (~9x 2024E EV/EBITDA vs. key comps at ~6x). We therefore maintain our Sell rating and increase our 12-month price target from $11 to $12 (5% downside vs. pre-market levels on 113), primarily to reflect the net proceeds from the recently completed sale of Simon and Schuster.

8:00 am: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr (Voter) participates in discussion on the Community Reinvestment Act before event, National Housing Conference - Breakfast with Barr: A Conversation About CRA in the 21st Century," at the National Press Club, Washington, D.C.

12:45 pm: Fed Bank of Minneapolis President Kashkari (Voter) participates in leadership discussion at the Economic Club of Minnesota.

3:30 pm: Barr (Voter) participates virtually in discussion on the Community Reinvestment Act before event, "The New Community Reinvestment Act Rule: What It Means For Communities Around the Country."

I am further raising my short exposure into the post jobs gap higher.

Upside

-DOCN +23% (earnings, guidance)

-SQ +17% (earnings, guidance)

-CSTL +14% (earnings, guidance)

-FIGS +14% (earnings, guidance)

-IAS +14% (earnings, guidance)

-SPT +13% (earnings, guidance)

-TRUP +13% (earnings)

-DH +12% (earnings, guidance)

-EXPE +11% (earnings; announces $5B share repurchase program)

-PODD +10% (earnings, guidance)

-ALHC +9.1% (earnings, guidance)

-UDMY +8.8% (earnings, guidance)

-DKNG +7.2% (earnings, guidance)

-B +6.9% (CEO Hook purchases $2.6M of common shares)

-CVRX +6.5% (CMS increases outpatient payment for Barostim Procedure; reassigned to APC 5465, which raises average payment amount to $45K from $29K)

-PARA +5.9% (earnings)

-GDEN +5.6% (earnings)

-FNKO +5.5% (earnings, guidance)

-YELP +4.6% (earnings, guidance)

-FIVN +4.5% (earnings, guidance)

-ACAD +3.7% (earnings, guidance)

-AXL +3.7% (earnings, guidance)

-CAH +3.3% (earnings, guidance)

-FLR +2.5% (earnings, guidance; selected by BHP for Stage 2 of multibillion-dollar Jansen Potash Project in Saskatchewan, Canada)

-NIO +2.1% (to cut 10% of jobs; may spin off unprofitable units to cut costs)

Downside

-BILL -32% (earnings, guidance)

-FTNT -23% (earnings, guidance)

-FND -17% (earnings, guidance)

-AGL -16% (earnings, guidance)

-ABCL -11% (earnings)

-TEAM -11% (earnings, guidance)

-EAF -8.3% (earnings, guidance)

-WW -7.7% (earnings, guidance)

-NET -4.6% (earnings, guidance)

-COIN -4.4% (earnings, guidance)

-BOOT -4.0% (earnings, guidance)

-BKNG -3.6% (earnings, guidance)

-VIAV -3.3% (earnings, guidance)

-OLED -2.8% (earnings, guidance)

-AAPL -2.4% (earnings, guidance)

-OPEN -2.3% (earnings, guidance)

-MCHP -2.2% (earnings, guidance)

At 8:15 am:

View Chart »View in New Window »

In premarket trading I added to QQQ short at $362.82 and to my SPY short at $430.46.

* In five brief trading sessions the S&P Short Range Oscillator has moved from deeply oversold to overbought at the close on Thursday

* My view is that we are in an oversold bounce - and nothing more

* We moved to net short yesterday

Would you like to ride in my beautiful balloon?

Would you like to ride in my beautiful balloon?

We could float among the stars together, you and I

For we can fly (we can fly)

Up, up and away

My beautiful

My beautiful balloon 

- The Fifth Dimension, Up, Up and Away

"The stock market will do whatever it has to do to embarrass the greatest people to the greatest extent possible." -- Wally Deemer

"Workin' on our night moves Trying to lose the awkward teenage blues Workin' on our night moves In the summertime And oh the wonder Felt the lightning And we waited on the thunder Waited on the thunder."

- Bob Seger, "Night Moves"

This daily Futures feature is like inside baseball. I try to show you and write about what I believe thoughtful hedge fund managers are looking at when they awake -- let's call it our normal routine -- setting the stage for their strategy for the day. The market is a complicated mosaic and the more info you have, the better trader and investor you will be!

The market (and money) never sleeps -- and neither do I, it appears! I have previously described the importance that overnight futures trading hold for me here. It is a guidepost to my strategy in the regular trading session. Moreover, the overnight/early morning futures hold opportunities as they are (1) inefficient, though liquid and (2) it seems fear and greed are often exaggerated outside the regular trading session. I frequently try to capture those efficiencies by trading actively both in the pre- and after-market sessions.

Here are brief observations I wanted to highlight and provide a summary of overnight price movements in various asset classes:

* Stock futures were modestly lower most of the overnight session - in a narrowly traded range. S&P futures peaked at +1 and bottomed at -11. Nasdaq futures peaked at -30 and bottomed at -72. At 7:01 a.m. ET, S&P futures were -8 and Nasdaq futures were -55.

and...

* The S&P Short-Range Oscillator moved to overbought - +0.91% at vs. -2.77%.

* The VIX is now at 15.72, a small gain of +0.06. I am actively trading straddles, selling on VIX spikes and covering on VIX drops. Nothing on right now.

* The U.S. dollar is weaker against the yen, euro and sterling.

* Treasury yields are unchanged after the swift drops in the last week. . The 2-Year Treasury yield is +1 bp at 4.989% and the 10-Year is -1 basis point at 4.657%. Over there, the yield on the 10-Year U.K. Gilt bond is little changed.

* Overnight, the inversion of the 2s/10s Treasuries curve is back up to -32 basis points. Real rates remain quite elevated - 10 year is over 2.50 in real terms.

* Commodities are mixed to higher. Brent crude is little changed: +$0.10 to $86.95.

* Gold is -$2 at $1995.

* Bitcoin is -reversing yesterday's gains and is -$800 at $34.4k.

Here is a synopsis of some of my columns I believe were important, or in the event you were out for the day and/or did not read my Diary. The principal intent is to review the logic of my market moves and other factors: 

The Market Is Focused On Fixed Income 

I Am Not Now Even Tempted to Chase Stocks

Here were Thursday's trades (I was very active):

* Added to SPY and QQQ shorts

* Traded MSFT intraday for profit.

* Added to AAPL short and covered after EPS for a nice gain.

* Reduced financials across the board.

* Took off DIS , WBD and PARA longs on strength.

* Reduced TLT long on spike. Same for XOM .

Here are the last few posts of the day in my Diary -- I wanted to be sure everyone saw my "moves":

Apple Forecasts Revenue Quieter Than the Whispers ...

Apple (AAPL) forecasts fourth-quarter revenue of about $116.5 billion, below $120 billion whisper...

Position: None.

BY DOUG KASS 12 HOURS AGO

Apple Short Covered

I covered my Apple (AAPL) short at $170.65 for a nice gain.

From earlier:

Added to Apple Short

I added small to my (AAPL) short at $177.39.

Position: None.

BY DOUG KASS 12 HOURS AGO

Too Early to Apple

I am always amused watching "talking heads" discuss the import of an earnings release, like Apple (AAPL) now, before listening to the conference call.

It is so lame.

Speaking of.... Apple Earnings Call - Apple

Position: Short AAPL (S)

BY DOUG KASS 13 HOURS AGO

Exxon Trim

I just reduced (XOM) $109.17 to small-sized from a quick gain from last week.

Position: Long XOM (S)

BY DOUG KASS 14 HOURS AGO

Added to Apple Short

I added small to my (AAPL) short at $177.39.

Position: Short AAPL

BY DOUG KASS 14 HOURS AGO

Goldman, Morgan Down to Tag-ends

I have reduced (GS) $313.39 and (MS) $73.37 to tag-ends.

Position: Long GS (VS), MS (VS)

BY DOUG KASS 14 HOURS AGO

Cut Down on Bank of America, Charles Schwab

I have reduced (BAC) $27.55 and (SCHW) $55.01 to tag-ends.

Position: Long BAC (VS) SCHW (VS)

BY DOUG KASS 14 HOURS AGO

Out of 3 Stocks

Out of (DIS) $83.17, (WBD) $11.05 and (PARA) $11.93.

Position: None

BY DOUG KASS 14 HOURS AGO

* For signposts...

Starting with the master, Wally:

Taking a bite of Apple AAPL :

To sum it up:

My way of capturing what csmith tweeted today 

"I never knew the game of baseball was so easy until I entered the broadcasting booth."

- Mickey Mantle

Wolf Street howls about the Fed's balance sheet.