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Zix Dances to a First-Quarter Beat

Plus, comments on Amplify Snack Brands in light of Pepsi's results.
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Last night Zix Corp. (ZIXI) reported better-than-expected March-quarter results, beating on both the top and bottom lines as well as guiding the current quarter in line with expectations. Zix also modestly boosted its 2017 EPS outlook and announced a $10 million share-repurchase program.

More specifically, Zix posted earnings per share of $0.07, $0.01 better than the consensus expectations, as revenue rose 11% year over year to $15.89 million. For full-year 2017, Zix now sees EPS of $0.28 vs. the consensus expectation of $0.27, and we suspect the company intends to utilize its share buyback plan to help deliver those results.

The results have ZIXI shares gapping up this morning and expect the three analysts covering the shares to issue bullish comments this morning, which should support trading levels. With the company poised to deliver compounded EPS growth of 11% over the 2016-2018 period, our existing and 'inherited' price target of $6.25 equates to a 1.8 PEG ratio and is well above the consensus of $5.75. We do expect those analysts to modestly boost their price targets, based on the bump in Zix's EPS outlook for 2017, but we will need to see a more pronounced pick-up in the company’s backlog to offer greater comfort with 2018 expectations.

Looking over the company’s other metrics, we’d note the improvement in Zix’s backlog, which rose to $78.9 million at the end of March, up 4.5% from $75.5 million a year earlier. Rising backlogs tend to be a solid indicator of what to expect in the coming quarters, and the current level gives us even greater confidence in the company’s ability to meet or beat the consensus revenue forecast of just over $65.9 million for 2017. That said, as yet there’s not sufficient backlog coverage to boost the 2018 outlook.

Adding to near-term comfort for Zix's business were two reminders this week over the growing threat of cyber-attacks and hacks that is fueling demand for cybersecurity and other measures. First, last night at the very end of its earnings conference call, Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) said that it had detected "unauthorized activity" on a network that supports payment processing at its restaurants. Then this morning, French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron's campaign team confirmed it had been the target of at least five advanced cyber-attack operations since January. These new items serve as a reminder of the overall need for secure communications that is fueling Zix’s business.

Zix exited the March quarter with $23.4 million in cash, which when paired with its cash flow offers ample support for its share-repurchase program. At the current price, we estimate that equates to around 1.9 million shares, roughly 3.5% of Zix’s outstanding share count. Based on some quick math, if the company were to complete the entire $10 million allotment this year at or near the current share price it would add an additional $0.01 per share to the bottom line.

We continue to rate ZIXI shares a Two with a $6.25 price target. We’d be buyers of the shares closer to $5.25, which offers potential upside of 19% to our price target.

Separately, during PepsiCo's (PEP) earnings call, the company reported higher-than-expected quarterly revenue and profits as it benefits from demand for its healthier drinks and snacks and kept a tight leash on costs. The company has said it now gets about 45% of its net revenue from "guilt-free" products -- beverages that have fewer than 70 calories per 12 ounces and snacks that have lower amounts of salt and saturated fat.

As you are probably thinking, Pepsi's results are very much in tune with our decision to add Amplify Snack Brands BETR to the portfolio. Over the last week, BETR shares slipped some 2%, but we’d remind subscribes that stocks under $10 can be volatile week to week. We continue to like Amplify’s expanding offering and footprint, and when the company reports its results we expect to hear more on those efforts.

We continue to rate BETR a One with a $10.50 price target.

Lastly, Sonus NetworksSONS reported earnings Wednesday and the stock is up some 8% as we write this. We’re digesting the numbers now and will provide our analysis Thursday.

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