Norwegian Cruise Lines? Get Off at the Nearest Port

Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCLH) is expected to report their latest quarterly numbers on Thursday. I have no idea what these numbers will be like but I can look at the charts and indicators to see if there has been more aggressive buying or more aggressive selling. Let's check.  

In this daily Japanese candlestick chart of NCLH, below, we can see that prices have traded sideways since early December. Prices have spent much of the past four weeks below the cresting 50-day moving average line. The 200-day moving average line has a positive slope and intersects not all that far below the price action in the $19 area.

The On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line shows a decline from early December suggesting that sellers of NCLH have been more aggressive. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator has been hugging the zero line which tells us that there is little in the way of "trend strength".  

In this weekly Japanese candlestick chart of NCLH, below, we can see some problems. Prices are still in an uptrend above the rising 40-week moving average line but trading volume has been drying up and the OBV line has been declining. The MACD oscillator is crossing to the downside and is only slightly above the zero line.  

In this daily Point and Figure chart of NCLH, below, we can see an upside price target in the $30-$31 area. We can also see that a decline to $23.02 will likely weaken the picture.  

In this second Point and Figure chart of NCLH, below, we used weekly price data. Here the software is projecting the $18 area as a price target.  

Bottom line strategy: Everyone is eagerly awaiting the return of travel including cruising. The charts of NCLH suggest that people will continue to be disappointed. I would avoid the long side of NCLH.

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