Heading into Thursday morning's natural gas inventory report, the nearby natural gas future was pushing up against its May-August down trendline at $3.51 on the daily chart.
If hurdled and sustained, this should trigger upside continuation immediately to test the declining 50-day EMA, now at $3.56, but more than likely to test the flattening 200-day EMA, now at $3.61.
Given the positive juxtaposition of two of my medium-term momentum gauges with the rising price structure, my sense was that natural gas should be relatively resilient going into the announcement and that even an initial negative reaction to a larger-than-expected build in inventories would likely be a buying opportunity.
On the other hand, a positive reaction would provide additional proof that nat gas is in the early stages of a new bull leg within its larger bull phase that began in April 2012 at $1.90.
Sure enough, nat gas inventories showed a lower build than expected -- up 57 bcf (billion cubic feet) vs. up 64 to 70 bcf -- causing nat gas futures to spike to $3.555, likely on the way to $3.60 next.
Meanwhile, in reaction to the news, the United States Natural Gas Fund ETF (UNG) climbed above an important three-month resistance line at $18.55. It has followed through the upside to $18.84 so far, on the way to my next-optimal-largest zone of $19.20/30 and perhaps $19.60 thereafter.
At this juncture, only a decline that breaks $18.40 will begin to compromise the timing of the anticipated climb to $19.20-1960.
See charts illustrating technical patterns of the natural gas futures and UNG here.
At the time of publicaiton, the author had no positions in any of the securities mentioned.