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What's Happening with BofA and NOV?

We take a deeper look into why shares of BofA and National Oilwell Varco are declining.
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We have two stocks that are down 5% this morning: Bank of America (BAC) and National Oilwell Varco (NOV) . BAC shares are down following news that it had to reduce its regulatory capital ratios due to an incorrect calculation in its Merrill Lynch structural products segment. As a result, the company has to suspend its current capital allocations in 2014 and go back to regulators with the new figures and get approval. Recall, the company had announced a $4 billion buyback and a dividend increase from 1 cent per quarter to 5 cents. It's likely that after it gets a third party to review its capital plan and resubmits its plans that it will still be allowed to distribute capital. But the timing and amount is now unknown and reputational damage has certainly been done.

It is certainly a negative surprise and we expect earnings to be revised lower, although even if we cut the capital allocation by 50% in 2014, the earnings impact is just 1%, or a penny per share. If capital allocation gets pushed out until 2015, the numbers fall 3%, or 4 cents. It's manageable, in our mind, but the stock will lag in the near term, no question. Longer term, the expense leverage story and continued market-share gains are unchanged and continues to be on track. A settlement over RMBS with the U.S. government could be another overhang removed. And at 1x TBV it is still a very cheap stock.

On NOV, we initially wrote this morning that the quarter was solid -- and it was. The positives were rig tech revenues and margins, as well as the record backlog of $16.35 billion. This was offset by sluggish PS&S results (which was impacted by the weather) and orders being just in line at $2.3 billion. The stock rallied 13% into the report and expectations were high, especially after other services companies like Schlumberger (SLB) , Halliburton (HAL) and others reported solid results. This is the reason we sold shares over the last two weeks, especially with the stock at new highs. But the reason for today's action is tied to the lower-than-expectations backlog guidance at closer to $14-15 billion vs. the current $16.35 billion posted, with the deep-water supply issue the main factor.

We wouldn't rule out that some of the guide could be the new CEO setting low expectations, but it is a disappointment and deflates the story in the near term. Offsetting the lower backlog is the likelihood of sustained margins, especially on rig tech and the mix shift to North America land. Another reason for the selloff is the fact that there was no new capital allocation plans announced. Some people expected a doubling in the dividend. Management did hint that it was leaning towards buybacks and dividends in the future, but not today. Even though we sold some shares recently, we held onto a piece ahead of the distribution spinoff, which will occur in 2Q. This will create value and the company will be even more transparent as it reclassifies its reporting structure. We still believe this to be the case.

Regards,

Jim Cramer, Stephanie Link, and TheStreet Research Team

DISCLOSURE: At the time of publication, Action Alerts PLUSwas long BAC and NOV.