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Scooping Up a Couple of Housing Plays

These two look primed to benefit further from the continued improvements in this sector.
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The housing market continues to be one of our favorite themes, and is one of the reasons we recently bought back shares of Weyerhaeuser (WY) . Another play on housing is Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) , with home-furnishing demand continuing to rise; we also like the risk-reward scenario, with these shares having lagged the broader averages and its peer group year to date. We will buy more of both stocks this morning with a 500-share purchase of Weyerhaeuser at $27.56, and 50 shares of Bed Bath & Beyond at $58.72.

Home sales and starts have been improving for more than a year, and both continue to grow at double-digit rates on a year-over-year basis. That said, they both remain well below historical averages. Affordability is at 30-year highs, and mortgage rates are at 30-year lows -- and if unemployment can continue to slowly recover, we see this theme continuing for some time.

We like the Weyerhaeuser story because of the company's large exposure to housing and real estate, which accounts for 75% of its revenue. Lumber prices have firmed steadily, and we expect further improvement still as housing recovers, and also due to the rebuild tied to Hurricane Sandy.

Weyerhaeuser is the world's largest owner of softwood timberland, and the second-largest owner of U.S. timberland. It is also one of the most profitable producers, with $82 per acre in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. We applauded management's decision to convert into a real estate investment trust two years ago because it brings the company more on par with its rivals in terms of its cost structure. The payout ratio remains low vs. its peers and, over time, we see it moving in line -- which means further dividend increases in the future.

Shares of Bed Bath & Beyond, meanwhile, have sunk 22% since June, when the company posted a solid earnings and same- store sales, but lower gross margins. We like the story, given the solid macroeconomic trends in home-furnishing demand. That benefits the company, as it has a strong correlation to this trend. We believe much of the margin pressure was tied partly to the recent Cost Plus acquisition, as its products are lower-margin but provide a new end market for growth in food and wine. Another reason for margin pressure came from one-time costs associated with its headquarters change. There was some discounting, but management has always had an aggressive couponing strategy.

We think a lot of the bad news is priced into shares -- which are now trading at 11.3x forward estimates vs. its 15.7x long-term average. With $1 billion in free cash and no debt, we also see further share-buybacks in store, a possible dividend and further investment for growth, mainly in e-commerce.

After our trades we'll own 1,500 shares of Weyerhaeuser, or 1.5% of the model portfolio, and 1,700 shares of Bed Bath & Beyond, or 3.7%.

Regards,

Jim Cramer, Stephanie Link, and TheStreet Research Team

DISCLOSURE: At the time of publication, Action Alerts PLUSwas long WY and BBBY.

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