One Disappointing Quarter
Timken (TKR) reported a very disappointing quarter before the bell Thursday morning. The company missed estimates on earnings and revenues, and it posted its worst operating-margin results since the second quarter of 2009. The firm also guided to lower-than-expected results for the full year.
This is very surprising, given this management team's history of executing well during the most difficult times. The stock is down 9% today, as it should be, given the big miss and the guide-down.
Recall that this story is set to completely change in 2014, when Timken's steel division is due to be spun off and the current management team will be replaced. We wonder if the management team was distracted by the spin, and/or if was there was underlying resentment that their hands were apparently forced to spin off the steel segment by key activist shareholder Relational Investors. Management, after all, was on record as not wanting to spin out this unit practically until the announcement was made.
These are just our thoughts; we have no insights as to whether they are true. But the margin underperformance is a big surprise -- more so than the revenue miss, given the macroeconomic environment -- and very uncharacteristic.
Nonetheless, several factors are keeping us involved, including the upcoming spin-off; a new management leading both segments and a trough in several of the company's business segments (industrial, mining, trucks); and the fact that Relational continues holding 8% of the shares -- and possibly more after today, should the firm take advantage of the decline. In light of all this, we are leaning toward buying today's pullback. We'll listen to the call later today and make a judgment at that time.
Drilling down into the report, earnings for the third quarter came in at $0.55 per share vs. the consensus estimate of $0.89, and revenue fell 7% year over year to $1.06 billion against the $1.15 billion average target. Gross margin was 23.7%, 200 basis points below expectations. Operating margin, at 8.4%, was 300 bps below consensus vs. the roughly 13% level expected -- and, again, it was Timken's worst quarterly operating margin since the second quarter of 2009. To reiterate, this is very surprising, as the management team has consistently delivered higher margins even in the face of challenging macroeconomic issues.
By segment, Mobile sales fell 12% year over year to $348 million on lower sales in the mining, agriculture and heavy-truck sectors, partially offset by the Interlube Systems deal. The division's margin came in at 8.4%, or 400 bps below expectations, due to the lower volumes. Process Industries revenue fell 1% year over year on lower industrial and distribution, partially offset by better pricing, and its margin fell 250 bps vs. last year -- 100 bps below expectations at 16.5%.
Moving on to the other segments, Aerospace and Defense revenue fell 9% year over year to $76 million. This was slightly lower than plan, as solid commercial aerospace numbers were offset by soft defense results. But, once again, margin here was 280 bps below last year's levels and 400 bps below consensus, totaling 6.4%. Finally, steel sales fell 6% from the prior year to $330 million due to weaker shipments to the industrial sector. That division's margin totaled 8.8%, down from last year's 14.1% and lower than the 12% estimate.
Timken's guide for 2013 now puts revenue at a decline of 13% vs. the prior projected drop of 10%. Earnings are also now projected a lower range -- $2.90 to $3.10 per share, down from the previous forecast of $3.45 to $3.75. Wall Street is looking for $3.62. Cash from operations is now expected at $415 million for the year, down from the earlier $475 million expectation. Finally, free cash flow is anticipated at $5 million, down from the prior $25 million, which suggests capital-expenditure increases of $320 million.
We'll follow up after the call.
Regards,
Jim Cramer, Stephanie Link, and TheStreet Research Team
DISCLOSURE: At the time of publication, Action Alerts PLUSwas long TKR.