Jim Cramer's Action Alerts PLUS Weekly Roundup
Between American International Group (AIG) , Fannie Mae FNM and General Motors (GM) , you had enough negative sentiment this week to drown out positive earnings reports from the likes of Nike (NKE) and the brokerages. That's not to mention consolidation in the retailers or the prospect that Time Warner (TWX) and others could follow Viacom's (VIAB) lead and split up their conglomerates to unlock value.
It was a volatile week with options expiration, oil at $57 a barrel and that massive S&P 500 rebalancing. The portfolio dipped into negative territory for the year, though we're maintaining a lead on the major market indices.
The good news is that I don't think the doom and gloom is going to last forever, which is the reason I put some cash to work this week. The market is in oversold territory, and if the Fed lets up just one bit with its rate hikes, we're likely to be at higher levels a few months down the road.
(In my rating system, Ones are stocks I would buy right now, Twos are stocks that I would buy on a pullback, Threes are stocks I would sell on strength and Fours are stocks I want to unload as soon as my restrictions allow.)
ONES
America Movil (AMX:NYSE ADR, $53.90, 3,200 shares, 4.65%): Bought a total of 700 shares this week as the stock pulled back about 5%. America Movil is looking to increase market share in Brazil, its second-largest market, from 21% to 30%. The company is a leader in the rapidly growing Latin American wireless market and can grow earnings 47% this year. The stock is attractively valued at just 15 times expected 2005 earnings of $3.50 a share. I believe America Movil has 10 to 15 points of upside potential over the coming quarters.
Aramark (RMK:NYSE, $26.09, 2,000 shares, 1.41%): Said at a Credit Suisse conference this week that 40% of new customers formerly provided their own food and facility operations. As this outsourcing shift continues, management also believes it can increase its market share with health care customers and grow annual sales 6% to 8% organically. Aramark is 6% below my cost basis, and I'll buy 500 shares when my restrictions allow.
Cendant (CD:NYSE, $20.99, 7,000 shares, 3.96%): Bought 1,000 shares this week as the stock dropped below my cost basis. I believe Cendant's earnings expectations will prove conservative; management will improve margins while integrating acquisitions made in 2004. The company offers an attractive 2.1% yield and supports the stock with buybacks.
Cimarex Energy (XEC:NYSE, $40.08, 4,000 shares, 4.32%): Its Magnum Hunter Resources (MHR) deal passed regulatory muster this week, and should close on schedule next quarter, pending shareholder approval. The purchase essentially will double Cimarex's size. I believe the stock is being temporarily held back because of arbitrage pressure. I'd buy 500 shares the next time Cimarex dropped below my cost basis.
J.P. Morgan (JPM:NYSE, $36.01, 5,000 shares, 4.85%): Already had reserves for the $2 billion WorldCom settlement. I wish I was allowed to buy the stock at current levels. The 3.8% yield is secure, and I believe the stock can recover to $40 in the coming months.
Lucent (LU:NYSE, $2.87, 55,000 shares, 4.26%): In the absence of regular communication from management, there are a lot of conflicting reports surrounding the company these days. Wireline sales are soft, but is a stronger wireless environment enough to make up the difference? Even though we won't get a better look until next month when Lucent reports first quarter results, I'd still take my position up to 60,000 shares at these levels if my restrictions allowed.
Pentair (PNR:NYSE, $39.33, 4,700 shares, 4.98%): Picked up 200 shares with my "statement buying" Thursday morning. The company can boost earnings 50% in 2005, and the stock shouldn't stay below $40 much longer.
PNC Financial (PNC:NYSE, $52.30, 5,700 shares, 8.04%): Already my largest holding, and I purchased another 200 shares Thursday. The bank's dividend yield is approaching 4% and is secure. PNC's balance sheet is positioned for higher interest rates. The company also remains a potential takeover candidate.
Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq, $31.11, 1,500 shares, 1.26%): Agree with the J.P. Morgan analyst call Friday that the Internet sector is looking oversold. I remain interested in buying more shares at current levels, but once again find myself restricted from taking action.
TWOS
Alliant Techsystems (ATK:NYSE, $72.11, 1,800 shares, 3.50% of the portfolio): I would look to round my stake up to 2,000 shares on a pullback to $70. The company gave an upbeat presentation at an investment conference this week, and I believe the stock can trade to more than $80 later this year.
American Physicians Capital (ACAP:Nasdaq, $34.87, 2,300 shares, 2.16%): No surprises in the 10-K filing, and otherwise a quiet week for the insurer. I'm a buyer 3 points lower, but also would look to take some profits off the table in the high $30s.
Cabela's (CAB:NYSE, $20.99, 8,200 shares, 4.64%): Announced plans this week to develop a new store in Reno, Nevada. The retailer now has eight new locations in the works, with four of them scheduled to open their doors in 2005. Cabela's currently has just 10 retail outlets and should be able to continue gaining market share in the fragmented outdoor sporting goods business. The stock is attractive to accumulate on a pullback. I believe Cabela's can see the mid-$20s later this year.
Commerce Bancorp (CBH:NYSE, $29.97, 3,600 shares, 2.91%): More banks have been trying to copy the company's late- hour branch model, so Commerce came out and one-upped the industry once again this week. The bank will start refunding customers for using other banks' ATMs. But what really drives deposit growth at Commerce is its commitment to service, which is ingrained in the culture and will be very difficult for a competitor of any size to copy anytime soon. Even though the bank is 17% above my cost basis, I believe it remains attractive to purchase on a pullback.
Eastman Chemical (EMN:NYSE, $60.96, 2,500 shares, 4.11%): Remarkably quiet week for the chemicals, but I maintain the company is beginning to fire on all cylinders. The stock is 12% above my cost basis at current levels, but I believe the stock can push into the high $60s in the coming months.
EnCana (ECA:NYSE, $69.93, 1,200 shares, 2.26%): Don't expect the energy sector to trade sideways for too long. This company has the best reserve growth potential in the natural gas business, and probably another 10% to 15% upside potential over the coming months.
Halliburton (HAL:NYSE, $43.92, 3,500 shares, 4.14%): Snapped back 8% this week as the company was able to shrug off a 60 million-share offering for the asbestos trust. I believe Halliburton can trade up toward $50 in the coming months because the market currently underestimates how much business the company will receive in the near term to build energy plants.
Intel (INTC:Nasdaq, $23.41, 4,500 shares, 2.84%): Market yawned at Friday's Deutsche Bank upgrade, just like it did last week's guidance boost. I'm hanging on to Intel as a placeholder, but no matter how good business appears, the fact is that large-cap tech may very well be dead money for the next couple of months.
St. Joe (JOE:NYSE, $69.65, 2,300 shares, 4.32%): Gave back 3% on the week, and I maintain the company's real estate assets are undervalued. The stock is attractive to buy here under $70.
Symbol Technologies (SBL:NYSE, $14.97, 8,500 shares, 3.38%): Hit with an analyst downgrade Monday, where I alerted you readers to buy some more. I spoke with CEO William Nuti this week, and remain confident the company can work through these patent lawsuits while it keeps growing its RFID business in the coming quarters. I'm currently restricted from trading Symbol, but would take my stake up to 10,000 shares if the stock traded back below $14.
Tyco (TYC:NYSE, $34.65, 5,500 shares, 5.14%): With Bernie Ebbers being convicted this week, the focus shifts back to the Kozlowski/Swartz trial. I'd use any headline-fueled declines under $34 to add to the position.
UnitedHealth Group (UNH:NYSE, $91.25, 1,500 shares, 3.69%): Picked up 200 shares Tuesday because I believe the stock is headed up into the triple digits over the coming months. The medical cost-containment business remains the best- performing area of health care, and UnitedHealth is one of the first companies to realize the potential of Medicare's shift over to the new Plan D drug plan in 2006. The company's estimates are too low, and I'd add to my stake below $90.
THREES
Comcast (CMCSA:Nasdaq, $33.83, 4,500 shares, 4.10%): Unloaded a total of 1,000 shares this week, with the stock 18% above most average purchase prices. Comcast could be due for a breather in the near term because any bid it makes for Adelphia is likely to include a large chunk of stock. Longer-term, I believe cable valuations remain 10% to 20% undervalued.
Kmart Holding (KMRT:Nasdaq, $125.19, 1,500 shares, 5.06%): Closing the Sears (S) deal is now a matter of days, and there are rumors going around that Eddie Lampert may be looking to monetize the Lands' End brand. While I'd wait for a pullback before committing new funds here, I believe Kmart has 20% to 30% upside potential by the end of the year.
Toyota Motor (TM:NYSE ADR, $76.57, 1,000 shares, 2.06%): I was able to significantly cut back my stake ahead of this week's General Motors debacle. Toyota fell 3% this week, proving that it just doesn't pay to have the best house in a bad neighborhood. There's no action to take at these levels, but I'd consider moving the stock out in the high $70s if a better opportunity presented itself.
Urban Outfitters (URBN:Nasdaq, $47.91, 1,500 shares, 1.94%): Sold another 300 shares Monday with the stock 35% above my cost basis. The retailer has outstanding growth prospects, but already is trading for more than 30 times expected full-year earnings. It may be difficult for Urban to sustain a run to more than $50 in the near term.
Regards,
James J. Cramer
DISCLOSURE: At the time of publication, Cramer was long Alliant Techsystems, America Movil, American Physicians Capital, Aramark, Cabela's, Cendant, Cimarex, Comcast, Commerce Bancorp, Eastman Chemical, EnCana, Halliburton, Intel, J.P. Morgan, Kmart Holding, Lucent, Pentair, PNC Financial, St. Joe, Symbol Technologies, Toyota Motor, Tyco, UnitedHealth Group, Urban Outfitters and Yahoo!.
Send email to james.cramer@thestreet.com.