Jim Cramer's Action Alerts PLUS Weekly Roundup
Friday's massive rally was truly a textbook move. What else could you expect in a period of solid earnings growth, tame inflation and relatively low interest rates? My 5.7% cash position is the lowest I've had in some time, because you need to be in the game to participate in good times like this.
But even though we're at multiyear highs on the major market indices, none of these measures is up more than 2% for 2005. Of course, the Dow and S&P 500 are at their highs, while the Nasdaq continues to be a notable underperformer. That's why you won't find much tech outside my core holding of Intel (INTC) in the portfolio.
The folks making good money in this market are the ones who are overweight oil. That's the reason that going forward, I'll insist on having at least as much energy exposure as the 8% or 9% in the S&P 500. For instance, as soon as I closed out Kerr-McGee (KMG) for 50%-plus gains this week, I bought back Halliburton (HAL) .
(In my rating system, Ones are stocks I would buy right now, Twos are stocks that I would buy on a pullback, Threes are stocks I would sell on strength, and Fours are stocks I want to unload as soon as my restrictions allow.)
ONES
America Movil (AMX:NYSE ADR, $57.88, 2,300 shares, 3.53%): A rare quiet week for the wireless provider, which is growing like wildfire in Latin America. Ultimately, I believe the shares will see $70 later this year, which is 20 times America Movil's earnings power of $3.50 a share.
Aramark (RMK:NYSE, $27.29, 1,700 shares, 1.23%): Bought 200 shares Tuesday with the stock 3% below my cost basis. The company has been a consistent double-digit earnings grower, which is the kind of stock that can outperform in a choppy market. I believe Aramark can trade for more than $30 in the coming months, and will look to buy more shares on any further pullback.
Cabela's (CAB:NYSE, $21.28, 8,000 shares, 4.51%): The retailer is clearly misunderstood by Wall Street, because the stock should be trading in the mid-$20s based on its midteens annual growth potential for the next several years. I've already bought Cabela's around these prices, but the shares remain attractive at the current quote.
Cendant (CD:NYSE, $22.32, 6,000 shares, 3.55%): Closed another sizable acquisition this week in the online travel space, and has only one of its recent acquisitions still pending. Once the company digests these purchases, I believe management's focus will return to growing the bottom line, which should in turn help the stock break out of its recent range.
Cimarex Energy (XEC:NYSE, $41.75, 3,500 shares, 3.87%): Added 1,000 shares on Wednesday. Even though the stock was slightly above my cost basis at the time, I don't think the stock will stay down around $41 for too long once the Magnum Hunter Resources (MHR) deal closes.
Halliburton (HAL:NYSE, $44.80, 2,000 shares, 2.37%): Reinitiated my position on Wednesday, picking up a total of 2,000 shares. Having booked 50%-plus profits in Kerr-McGee, I wanted to maintain at least a market-weight level of energy holdings. As a services company, Halliburton also adds some diversification from my exploration and production holdings. Even though the media like to latch on to any potential negative news stories coming out on Halliburton, none of these have managed to materially impact the stock. Not only do I believe the company's Kellogg, Brown & Root division will see contracts stem from ExxonMobil (XOM) and ChevronTexaco's (CVX) new liquid natural gas plants going up in Qatar, I believe this business isn't being factored into Halliburton's stock price at current levels.
J.P. Morgan (JPM:NYSE, $37.51, 5,000 shares, 4.97%): Spinoff of the private equity business is another sign that Jamie Dimon is shaking things up to try to get the stock back on the right track. The 3.6% dividend yield remains attractive, and I believe the stock is attractive to purchase below $37.
Symbol Technologies (SBL:NYSE, $15.75, 8,500 shares, 3.55%): Sold off nearly 2 points Wednesday, despite reporting an in-line fourth quarter. End-market demand remains strong for Symbol's bar-code scanners and mobile computing products. The perceived problem is that operating costs are rising, which is an issue that can be corrected within a couple of quarters. With that in mind, this week I bought back the 1,000 shares I had sold a month ago for more than $18, along with an additional 500 shares. I'm prepared to take my position in Symbol up to 10,000 shares if the stock falls below $15 in the near term.
Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq, $32.36, 1,500 shares, 1.29%): There were no material surprises from the company's presentation at the Bear Stearns media conference on Tuesday. The stock already has recovered 2 points from last week's lows, and I'm not worried about the shares breaking $30 anytime soon. I personally haven't been able to purchase more Yahoo! down here because of my trading restrictions, but I want to increase my position at or below these prices.
TWOS
Alliant Techsystems (ATK:NYSE, $72.32, 1,800 shares, 3.45% of the portfolio): Hit another new 52-week high Friday, and the stock is now $3 above my original purchase price. The company is seeing steady demand from the military for training ammunition, and there's room in the business model for further operating margin expansion. I'd look to buy more Alliant Tech closer to $70.
Comcast (CMCSA:Nasdaq, $32.79, 5,000 shares, 4.34%): Management said this week that integrating Adelphia's assets into the nation's largest cable network would be "simple." Seeing what Comcast did with the mess that was AT&T Broadband a couple of years back, I'm inclined to believe them. The cable business remains in a transition period, and I believe per-subscriber valuations will be significantly higher down the road.
Commerce Bancorp (CBH:NYSE, $62.14, 1,800 shares, 2.96%): Took a 21% profit on 200 shares Wednesday after the stock had moved up 5 straight points in seven sessions. Some of the company's biggest and loudest bears now have capitulated, and Commerce could take a breather in the near term. As a reminder, the bank will split its shares 2-for-1 on Tuesday, so adjust your position sheets accordingly.
Eastman Chemical (EMN:NYSE, $59.14, 2,500 shares, 3.92%): Went out at another 52-week high Friday, and I now have a 9% gain on the stock. I believe there's still a lot of momentum in the current chemicals upcycle, and that Eastman will trade up around $70 by the time the company has caught up to the likes of Dow Chemical (DOW) and DuPont (DD) .
Intel (INTC:Nasdaq, $24.68, 4,500 shares, 2.94%): Caught two analyst upgrades Tuesday. It looks like the rest of Wall Street is coming around to what we've known for some time, namely that Intel's turnaround is real and the current quarter is probably running ahead of plan. Don't be surprised if we see a boost in guidance on next week's midquarter update. I believe the stock has 3 points of upside potential from here, compared with 1 point down.
Kmart Holding (KMRT:Nasdaq, $105.01, 1,500 shares, 4.17%): Shares added more than 8% this week. The company's merger with Sears (S) , to receive final approval in a couple of weeks, will be even stronger than the Federated FD combination with May Department Stores (MAY) . If we get a pullback into the $90s before then, it should be considered a buying opportunity.
Lucent (LU:NYSE, $3.05, 55,000 shares, 4.44%): Approaching a level where I'd consider adding to my stake. Telecom equipment remains the most loathed sector in the market.
Pentair (PNR:NYSE, $42.19, 4,500 shares, 5.03%): Management was out on the road this week, telling investors the company can post 7% to 10% organic annual top-line growth in its core businesses. The water business may not seem like the most exciting business out there, but you'll be hard-pressed to find a space in which there's better visibility for consistent growth through the end of the decade. I already have a sizable stake here, and would look to add to my stake on a pullback around $40.
PNC Financial (PNC:NYSE, $54.38, 5,500 shares, 7.92%): Moved higher along with the rest of the market this week, though PNC remains one of the most inexpensive banks in the market. This is already my largest position personally, but the 3.7% dividend is very attractive at these levels.
St. Joe (JOE:NYSE, $75.05, 2,300 shares, 4.57%): Announced the sale of another 84 home sites in northwest Florida this week. The 0.8% dividend yield isn't the primary reason I own this stock, but it's also worth noting that we will qualify for the next 14-cent payment on Thursday.
Toyota Motor (TM:NYSE ADR, $78.78, 2,500 shares, 5.22%): Posted impressive 11% U.S. auto-sales growth in February. For all of 2005, the company is targeting 5% to 7% North American volume improvement, compared with a flat year for the overall market. This isn't enough to fully offset higher raw materials costs, but does allow Toyota to maintain a clear operating advantage over the Big Three U.S. automakers.
Tyco (TYC:NYSE, $35.62, 5,500 shares, 5.19%): Tacked on nearly 6% for the week, even as the headlines continue to pour out of the fraud trial of former executives Dennis Kozlowski and Mark Swartz. Tyco generates tons of cash flow, and I believe Ed Breen can get the company's earnings back on the right track in the coming quarters. With that in mind, I'd consider buying more Tyco on a decline to less than $34.
UnitedHealth Group (UNH:NYSE, $93.29, 1,300 shares, 3.21%): The company sold $500 million of debt this week but maintains a healthy A-rated balance sheet. Don't look now, but the stock is taking off once again -- before I can rebuild a larger position. Any decline below $90 should be viewed as a buying opportunity, because it looks inevitable that UnitedHealth can see $100 a share over the coming months.
THREES
American Physicians Capital (ACAP:Nasdaq, $36.01, 3,000 shares, 2.86%): Medical liability tort reform is still high on the president's agenda, but I now have an 18% gain on my position. With that in mind, I'd consider booking the gain on 500 shares into the next rally.
EnCana (ECA:NYSE, $71.14, 1,500 shares, 2.83%): Gained 5% for the week and is now a full 20 points above my cost basis. That said, I'm done selling at these levels because I want to maintain at least a 9% position in the energy sector. EnCana has a great multiyear production growth outlook and is committed to buying back stock and debt. Until a better opportunity presents itself, I'm going to let this stock keep working for me. As a reminder, we'll qualify for EnCana's next 10-cent quarterly dividend on Thursday.
Urban Outfitters (URBN:Nasdaq, $45.17, 2,000 shares, 2.39%): Sold a total of 500 shares this week for nearly a 40% gain as the stock rallied more than 8% on the week. I doubt there will be many surprises in the retailer's January quarter results, to be reported later this month, and I don't want to get caught being piggish. That said, Urban has one of the best growth profiles in the industry, and I maintain the stock can eventually trade into the $50s.
Regards,
James J. Cramer
DISCLOSURE: At the time of publication, Cramer was long Alliant Techsystems, America Movil, American Physicians Capital, Aramark, Cabela's, Cendant, Cimarex, Comcast, Commerce Bancorp, Eastman Chemical, EnCana, Halliburton, Intel, J.P. Morgan, Kmart Holding, Lucent, Pentair, PNC Financial, St. Joe, Symbol Technologies, Toyota Motor, Tyco, UnitedHealth Group, Urban Outfitters, Yahoo!.
Send email to james.cramer@thestreet.com.