Following our broader note, we want to dive into a few company-specific updates driving the portfolio today:
Southwest (LUV)
Shares are significantly outperforming the market today, a day after we added to the position again on a broader pullback (read here). The stock is benefiting from a strong earnings report from large-cap peer Delta Airlines (DAL) , which not only reported solid first-quarter results but also guided for encouraging fundamentals heading into the second quarter. In our recent bulletins discussing Southwest, we have pointed to the improving fundamentals across the industry that will drive better returns for the airlines moving forward -- more specifically, increasingly favorable capacity trends and revenues per available seat mile (RASM).
This morning, Delta reported that consolidated passenger unit revenue (PRASM) declined 0.5% (vs. -2.7% in the December quarter, -6.8% in the September quarter and -4.8% in the June quarter). The upward trend is positive for the industry as a whole, especially as Delta commented that it remains committed to capping capacity in order to help boost unit revenues. Importantly, March marked the first positive month for passenger unit revenue since November 2015, and the metric is expected to be positive for the balance of the year. Delta guided for a 1%-3% increase in PRASM for the upcoming quarter. We expect Southwest to benefit from similarly positive trends.
PepsiCo (PEP)
Shares are trading higher and also outperforming the market today as consumer staples benefit from a shift toward safety vehicles. PEP's dividend yield of about 2.85% becomes increasingly attractive in a declining interest rate environment, especially considering that the company offers the best growth profile among its large-cap peers. More specifically to PEP, the stock is receiving a boost today from an SIG research note wherein analysts upgraded the stock to a Buy largely on the prospects for M&A. We have spoken to this theme in recent weeks when we trimmed the name (read here and here), noting that we do not believe Kraft-Heinz (KHC) would acquire PEP even though we recognize the likelihood of a KHC deal of some sort in the space in the near term. As such, we wanted to book some profits in the name and open room to add shares again should the stock drop once M&A speculation fizzles out. Although we are restricted, for those who are still overweight the position, we do view these levels as an attractive point to take profits. We remain confident in the company and believe there is downside support baked into the name due to M&A speculation and the dividend yield, but we would evaluate opportunities to trim again slightly once we are unrestricted.
Facebook FB
Shares are roughly flat today and have traded roughly in line with the market for the week thus far. That being said, the stock has trended lower off its all-time highs in April as the broader tech sector has pulled back from a strong start to the year. The company has announced several updates this week that we believe reflect favorably on the continued strength of its core platform and subsidiary business units. Brand loyalty remains strong, and this ultimately results in greater flow of ad dollars.
First, to that point, the company announced on Monday that 5 million businesses are now advertising on the core platform, up from 3 million in March 2016 and 4 million in September. The growth of the marketing base is a testament to the strength of Facebook's 1.9 billion monthly active users. Digging deeper, the company is the mobile solution for 65 million businesses with FB pages and 8 million with Instagram profiles. These numbers continue to grow and ad dollars continue to shift away from traditional sources. To accommodate these growing numbers of users and businesses, FB announced changes to its ad options, including a "one-click" option to reinstate high-performing ads and a desktop tool to manage customer messages. FB has proven to be capable of maintaining the exciting user experience while also appealing to advertisers.
Separately, FB also took another stab at rival Snapchat (SNAP) when the social media giant announced upgrades to Instagram Direct, the messaging feature on the photo sharing application. Recall that we profiled Facebook's rivalry with SNAP here. When the direct messaging feature was originally rolled out on Instagram, disappearing messages had their own separate inbox within the app (creating two inboxes, one for ephemeral picture/video messages and one for permanent conversations). Tuesday's update merged the two messaging inboxes and allows users to simply select whether the specific video or photo being sent should disappear. This is similar to Snapchat's feature allowing users to save messages within dialogues. SNAP shares tumbled lower yesterday on this news, a reflection of the market's understanding of FB's dominance.
Lastly, today Facebook announced that Messenger reached 1.2 billion monthly active users, up from 1 billion in March 2016. The app only had roughly 500 million users when it separated from Facebook back in 2014 and now matches the user base of WhatsApp, another FB subsidiary. Instagram has roughly 600 million users. Messenger's growth can be attributed to new features, such as chat bots, video calls, engaging photo sharing and payment services. Recode offers an interesting look at Messenger's growth in an article here. All in, the growth is just another example of FB's optionality moving forward when it comes to further monetization.
Western Digital (WDC)
Shares are trading lower this morning on reports from Reuters and other news outlets highlighting disagreements between management and Toshiba regarding the sale of Toshiba's NAND flash memory business. WDC shares have suffered through a volatile week thus far, shooting out of the gate on Monday before pulling back later in the day and then rebounding in yesterday's trading. You can read our note from Monday here.
Tuesday's surge was aided by an upgrade to Buy from analysts at JPMorgan, who boosted their price target to $116 from $80 on the back of continued tightening in the storage market, specifically in NAND, a development that should further help boost demand for HDD's. WDC has a significant presence in the HDD market while it owns a smaller share of the market in NAND thanks to an acquisition of SanDisk. Importantly, these improving fundamentals give WDC a runway of support throughout 2017 (recall that we have intended WDC to be a medium-term trade while fundamentals remain strong), meaning that an acquisition of the Toshiba NAND business is not do-or-die by any means, although the business would of course help WDC further diversify its revenue streams.
Today, the shares are under pressure after Reuters reported that the bidders for the Toshiba unit have been narrowed down to four from 10 or more -- Broadcom (AVGO) paired with private-equity firm Silverlake, Western Digital, Foxconn and SK Hynix. While reports have fluctuated and are unconfirmed, WDC appears to be at the low end of the bid range while Foxconn appears to be at the top. That being said, recall that Japan is unlikely to choose Foxconn as the winning bid due to the company's ties with China, impacting Japan's national security concerns.
Aside from the bids themselves, WDC's CEO Steve Milligan addressed a letter to Toshiba's board on Sunday detailing his company's frustration with the Toshiba bidding process, noting that it violates WDC's joint venture with the Japanese conglomerate (WDC runs a JV for NAND production with Toshiba via its acquisition of SanDisk -- Western Digital sources its NAND wafers through this joint venture). WDC believes it deserves an exclusive opportunity to bid for the Toshiba business as well as the right to approve or veto any sales per the terms of the JV agreement. WDC also noted that a sale to other companies could be problematic based on experiences with recent commercial dealings.
In the end, this dispute simply creates further uncertainty with regard to the sale process, and investors have taken the opportunity to book quick profits in a name that is up 15% in the last three weeks or so (even more if excluding the losses today). We remain confident in the stock for the medium term, supported by strong storage fundamentals, but we recognize that trading could be volatile in being tied to the unpredictable reporting surrounding the Toshiba sale. WDC does not need the NAND flash business to charge higher (at least in the medium term, when we plan to hold the stock), especially considering it could partner with the eventual owner in order to offload some of the future risk associated with the semiconductor business, but that does not mean short-term traders will not react to each subsequent report. We expect there to be some back-and-forth in the coming weeks and any prolonged weakness may be a buying opportunity for those who are unexposed heading into the upcoming quarterly report.
Arconic (ARNC)
Shares are under pressure today as the board of directors and Elliott Management continue to trade blows in the ongoing proxy battle. Although we have been restricted for the majority of the past couple of weeks, we have been consistent in our commentary that we are inclined to trim on any strength, which the stock had shown in recent days. You can review our recent updates here and here as well as in our weekly roundups. You can also review Elliott's case for change at their website. As for the proxy vote at the upcoming shareholder meeting in May, we continue to gather as much information as possible before making a decision. We will keep members updated accordingly.
Wells Fargo (WFC) and Citigroup (C)
Shares of both financial names are trading lower today as 10-year Treasury yields remain stuck below the 2.3% level. Both companies will be reporting earnings tomorrow morning, when we will provide our detailed analysis of the results. We will be interested to hear commentary from both management teams regarding the health of the economy, demand for loans (both consumer and commercial/business) and outlook for the interest rate environment moving forward. Specifically to WFC, we expect some focus to be on the ongoing handling of the cross-selling scandal; but given that the company announced several claw-backs and detailed findings in reports earlier this week (read a report here), the company can focus on the performance of its diversified business model. On Citi, we are intrigued to hear more about management's plans for capital allocation moving forward.
Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, is long LUV, PEP, FB, WDC, C, WFC and ARNC.