A Pharma Remains a Buy After Earnings
Drugmaker Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) reported earnings this morning that were essentially in line with strong underlying momentum in its new growth platform. This is key, and it's what investors are paying for, because this division will provide strong revenue growth for the company and an acceleration after the 2012 patent cliff (a 7.5% compound annual growth rate from 2012 to 2015).
Sanofi-Aventis has many moving parts because of the recent close of the Genzyme merger, and for this reason the company will not provide updated guidance until its midyear results on June 28, but it did indicate that Genzyme would be 3%-4% accretive to 2011 estimates. This will be followed by the September analyst meeting, which I believe will be a key positive catalyst for the shares, given the expected synergies from Genzyme, its strong pipeline of pharmaceutical drugs and the growth momentum from its growth platform. This remains a buy at the current level.
Core earnings of 1.66 euros a share were in line with consensus (down 6% on constant exchange rate, excluding A/H1N1 swine flu), and revenue was slightly ahead at 7.8 billion euros, excluding A/H1N1 sales, which were ahead of expectations of 7.5 billion euros and up 0.1% year over year ¿ impressive, considering that the company lost 569 million euros in generic sales year over year. Operating margins were 38.9%, slightly lower than plan, because of the mix shift to non-pharma businesses.
The key positive callout is the 15.5% gain in its growth platforms, which now account for 60% of total sales, vs. 51.4% year over year. Emerging-markets sales rose 15% to 2.3 billion euros (excluding A/H1N1) and accounted for 30% of group sales. Its animal health division, Merial, posted sales of 11.5% to 594 million euros, which beat expectations by 150 basis points and carried strong operating margins of 36.7%. Pharmaceutical sales were in line at 5.5 billion euros, and operating margins of 40.1% were solid and show the strong cost controls at the company.
Revenue highlights in addition to Merial were in over-the- counter with 23% growth (local currency) due to the Allegra OTC launch, Lantus sales up 13% (local currency) to 925 million euros and total diabetes sales overall up 10.5%. Vaccine revenues and margins were down but no worse than expected. Free cash flow was stable at 2 billion euros.
Shares remain cheap at 8x forward estimates, giving the company little credit for its growth initiatives beyond the 2012 patent cliff year. Steady execution, strong cash-flow generation and a solid pipeline of products make this a buy. I'll continue to do so on weakness.
Regards,
Jim Cramer, Stephanie Link, and the Research Team
DISCLOSURE: At the time of publication, Cramer was long SNY.
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James J. Cramer is a Markets Commentator for TheStreet.com and CNBC, as well as Chairman of the Board and co-founder of TheStreet.com. TheStreet.com is a publisher. Cramer graduated magna cum laude from Harvard College, where he was president of The Harvard Crimson. After receiving his J.D. in 1984 from Harvard Law School, he joined Goldman Sachs, where he worked in sales and trading. In 1987, he left Goldman to start his own hedge fund. While he worked at his fund, Cramer helped start Smart Money for Dow Jones and then, in 1996, he founded TheStreet.com.
Stephanie Link is the director of research & vice president of strategy for TheStreet.com. She is the co-portfolio manager for Action Alerts PLUS and works daily on the strategy and stock picks chosen for the portfolio. Stephanie is also responsible for recruiting talent for the paid sites including options, technicians and fundamental contributors. Prior to joining TheStreet.com, Link worked on Wall Street for 16 years. She spent nine years at the Prudential Equity Group as a managing director in U.S. institutional sales and as the New York sales manager covering top national accounts. She was the managing director of equity research in her final year at the firm. Prior to that position, she worked at Dean Witter as an institutional sales person for six years. Link's investment specialties include large-cap core stocks as well as value ideas.