Giddiness and Faltering Momentum

The Market

Yes, although I said we should be up today, I also thought we would not make much progress on the upside. I was clearly wrong on that.

Statistically, there was not much not to like about today's breadth. But that has pretty much been the case, with the exception of the Nasdaq last week. Although the number of stocks making new highs expanded, it remains far below its peak readings from the fall.

Everyone got very excited over the Russell 2000's move today. Although I am not sure it has any bearing on our current market, I will share a note I found interesting. The last -- and only -- time the Russell was up 3% on the day to a new 52-week high was the final day of February 2000. That was just about a week before the Nasdaq made its high at just over 5000 and the bubble popped.

Let me remind you that I do not think we are in a bubble now. But I do think the concentration in a few favored names is ridiculous, as is Facebook's (FB:Nasdaq) paying $19 billion for a text messaging service, and that both developments have some similarities to the 2000 market.

I must point out that the International Securities Exchange's equity call/put ratio went over 200% today, the third time in four trading days. While there is no rule on how long the ratio can stay this high, it shows us the level of giddiness that has arrived. This is further confirmed by the equity put/call ratio on the CBOE, which sunk below 50% for the first time since January 15. Heck, the Fear and Greed Index, which was at 13 exactly one month ago at the low, is now at 74. That index (which you can see here) has not gone over 80 in about a year.

Then there are the momentum names, nearly all of which made lower highs in today's session. Watch these names because they have been the tell in the market of late.

If we are not down or flat tomorrow or Thursday, I will be very surprised.

Read Helene's latest column here.

New Ideas

When we looked at the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury Fund (TBT) a few weeks ago, we noted the top in the one-year chart and the bottom in the three-year chart. Although the shorter-term chart still looks like a top, if you squint hard you can see that a potential W has not formed. If the fund clears $72, I think it will capture folks' attention and put the target near $78. The first stop is that $72 area, though. Keep in mind that we have an employment number out Friday.

It has been a while since we looked at Radian (RDN) . This stock had a nice move today -- along with Piper Jaffray (PJC) and Goldman Sachs (GS) (finally!) -- and the target is around $18-ish.

Today's Indicator

The McClellan Summation Index is still pushing higher. The Nasdaq's was saved today, which is not a surprise.

Q&A

Helene welcomes your questions about Top Stocks and her charting strategy and techniques. Please send an email directly to Helene with your questions. However, please remember that TheStreet.com Top Stocks is not intended to provide personalized investment advice.

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I was asked to follow up on Freeport McMoran (FCX) , a chart we looked at a few weeks ago. I am best at seeing head-and-shoulders patterns and rarely notice cups and handles, but for these last few weeks the chart does look like the handle of a cup-and-handle pattern. The downtrend line is the same one I drew in a few weeks ago. If this can ever get going, I would still look for it to tag that downtrend line. Clearly it is taking its own sweet time. The target remains $35-$35.50.

I do not know what to tell you to do with Salesforce (CRM) here. It has not broken the uptrend line, but it has reached the measured target at $64-$65. You could call it a hold, with a stop under $60. My guess is that CRM will now enter a trading range between $60 and $66+.

We should keep our eyes on Genesco (GCO) for signs of a breakout, which will come if it can clear $76. The first target would be $80-$82, with a longer-term target near $90. I do not know what the stop would be, which is why I think it needs to be watched for signs that it is ready to move.