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Economic First Look: Digging Into Inflation

The data suggest consumers pay more even as input costs decline
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Monday

  • Treasury Budget, 2 p.m. EDT

Tuesday

  • National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index, 7:30 a.m.
  • Retail Sales, 8:30 a.m.
  • Import and Export Prices, 8:30 a.m.
  • Business Inventories, 10 a.m.
  • Dennis Lockhart, President of the Atlanta Federal Reserve (non-voter), speaks, 12:45 p.m.

Wednesday

  • Producer Price Index, 8:30 a.m.
  • Energy Information Administration (EIA) Petroleum Status Report, 10:30 a.m.

Thursday

  • Consumer Price Index, 8:30 a.m.
  • Jobless Claims, 8:30 a.m.
  • Empire State Manufacturing Index, 8:30 a.m.
  • Treasury International Capital, 9 a.m.
  • Industrial Production, 9:15 a.m.
  • Housing Market Index, 10 a.m.
  • Philadelphia Fed Survey, 10 a.m.

Friday

  • Housing Starts, 8:30 a.m.
  • Productivity and Costs, 8:30 a.m.
  • Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 a.m.

This week is heavy on economic indicators, with key readings on inflation and manufacturing activity set to dominate. Tuesday's retail-sales report is also a must-read, in my book. Since I covered manufacturing recently by looking at the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index, let's focus on inflation in this column.

A trio of inflation gauges are due for release this week from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and they include the most well-known measures, among them the consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI). But, even though they are widely followed on "Main Street," they are not the inflation measures preferred by the Federal Reserve.

Instead, the central bank prefers the measure tabulated by the Bureau of Economic Analysis -- which is tied to the personal consumption expenditure metric found in the gross domestic product and Personal Income and Outlays reports. That measure is not released separately, however -- and it is based, in turn, on the prices for individual goods and services the BLS uses in this week's data. The difference lies in the weights assigned to different products.

What I am interested in, then, are those inflation metrics for individual goods and services, in addition to the headline number. If we get a sense of price metrics for products that people buy in stores, as compared with what producers pay for the inputs to make those things, we can learn a few things. One is that we can get a rough approximation of margins. Another is that we can get some sense of how much price changes are affecting companies' top-line results: Are they seeing more units sold, or are their prices increasing instead?

We can get some idea of pricing power, as well. If we have more pricing power, we might conclude that at least some companies believe demand from their customers is strong enough to pass through price increases. High inflation is a bad thing, but so is low inflation, as this signals that companies need to keep prices low just in order to maintain sales.

If a company can sell more toasters while simultaneously charging more for them, we might surmise that people are more willing to buy toasters, and that can be a proxy for improved business conditions. However, if the toasters' production costs rise faster than the prices charged to customers, then the company might not hire as many workers, as its margins might be getting squeezed. So if we compare the prices producers pay with what consumers pay, we can learn a little bit about business conditions more generally -- though this is but one of many data points that analysts and economists would typically measure.

That said, here's what we know from survey data. In the ISM manufacturing survey, we see that the prices index registered at 49, down 3.5 points from June. This indicates a decrease in overall raw-materials prices from last month, per a survey of supply executives. In July, 20% of respondents reported paying higher prices vs. those of June, 22% said they paid lower prices and 58% said prices were flat with the prior month.

Looking at non-manufacturers via the ISM non-manufacturing survey -- including retailers and wholesalers -- we find that the prices index increased 7.6 points to 60.1. This indicates that prices climbed at a significantly faster rate in July than in June. In July, 21% of respondents reporting higher prices, 7% reported lower prices, and 72% reported no change.

Making a bit of an inference, we see that manufacturers are experiencing lessened inflation pressures -- but some of their customers, per ISM non-manufacturing, are paying even higher prices. Some of this represents a lagged effect from higher production costs in prior months, of course, but it could suggest that manufacturers are benefitting from lower material costs while still being able to charge their customers more. These data are not sufficient to analyze a particular company's cost structure by any means, but they do inform us more generally of the issues I raised above, in terms of margins and business conditions.

What we don't know just yet are how much of these costs are being passed on to consumers. We'll find out that answer on Thursday in the CPI metric.