So the bond market was right. The ADP report was wrong. And retail is the spoiler.
There have been so many bankruptcies in retail and so many store closings that this was the month where it really hit home.
Autos signaled the weakness, too.
It is incredible, as my friend and writing partner Matt Horween says, the bond market is rarely wrong and it correctly nailed the slowing.
I continue to believe that the failure of the health care repeal/replace coupled with the double-digit decline in mall traffic directly created this market.
Yes, there were some lost days because of a freak late storm.
But just count the store closings and you will get this number right.
Oh, and it is time to fish or cut bait with ADP. We either favor it or the Labor Department.
Can't believe in both.