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Underlying Action Continues to Wilt

A great deal of stocks are trading below their 50-day lines. But, for now, here's a short-term play.
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I reviewed the charts on my watch lists this weekend and noticed action around key moving averages -- specifically, reversal candles at or near the 50-day line -- as the dominant theme. I have often elaborated on my concerns about impending broader-market weakness in May, using a series of technical indicators in the S&P 500, and now I want to present one more. This one illustrates the relationship between the index and the percentage of stocks in the index that are above their 50-day moving averages, prior to the May 2012 decline and today.

S&P 500 vs. Stocks Under 50-Day MA

Source: StockCharts.com

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The most obvious comparison is that, in the three months prior to May of last year, while the S&P was making new highs, the percentage of stocks above their 50-day lines was declining. This is a bearish divergence that represents narrowing market leadership, and we have been seeing the same thing happen since February of this year. The market is continuing higher, but the number of stocks above their 50-day averages is declining, with the ratio currently near 60% -- which, in the past, has represented a key inflection point. I think the broader market will attempt to make a new swing high this month and fail, but in the meantime there are short-term opportunities on the long side.

C.H. Robinson (CHRW) -- Daily

Source: StockCharts.com

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A cup-and-handle pattern has formed on the daily chart of C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW), the transportation and freight-logistics company. Rim resistance comes in just above the 50-day moving average, in the $59.80 area. The pattern is well-defined, and there is technical collaboration over multiple time frames. At the top of the chart is a representation of weekly stochastics, which has been tracking higher for a month; below it is daily stochastics, which is making a bullish crossover above its centerline. Relative strength and moving average convergence-divergence (MACD) are above their centerlines, and the money-flow indicators show accumulation during the formation of the handle of the pattern.

I am long the stock at its current level, taking advantage of a tight stop under $57.50, but the traditional approach would be to wait for a break above rim resistance before you'd enter a position. The pattern projects a target price into the February gap.

At the time of publication, Moreno was long CHRW.