Alcoa's (AA) star may have faded, but it still is the first DJIA component to kick off the earnings season.
From the technical side, the current price of the stock along with the current available option strikes have me less excited about trading Alcoa this time around, which disappoints me since it is one of those stocks I've been able to consistently hit for a profit during earnings. This has never been a home run name for me, but I like consistent singles as well as home runs.
The chart actually feels more neutral to bearish.
Alcoa (AA)
Source: StockCharts.com
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Although the targets seem far away from price, I am looking more at $8.82 to $9.50 for post-earnings targets or within those bands. The secondary targets of $9.62 and $9.90 would be more post-earnings follow-through, taking another week or so to develop. Therefore, I have two approaches here on Alcoa, although the trade will be small.
For the downside, I am simply buying the Jan. 18-Jan. 11 $9 calendar put spread for a nickel or less. With a potential push below $9, I considered going long the Jan. 11 $9 put and short the Jan. 18 $9 put rather than the other way around, but the max profit there looks to only be about $0.03. Once I factor in commissions, there doesn't feel like much upside. I'm willing to toss out a nickel with the real possibility that Alcoa stays in the $8.90 to $9.10 range this week.
On the upside, I am torn between two plays, but I think either has a good chance of making a profit. My two approaches here are first, long 1x Jan. 18 $9 calls, short 2x Jan. 11 $9.5 calls and long 1x Jan. 18 $10 calls for around $0.18. If I were more bullish post-earnings, however, believing the $9.90 target was going to come into play (which may take a few weeks to play out), then I would go long the Feb. 15 $9 call and short 2x Jan. 11 $9.5 calls for $0.27. The latter play does have a naked call, so I would have to have more conviction that a big move was not going to happen right after earnings or even during this week. I will probably split my play between the two and marry each to a calendar put spread.
Alcoa's ultimate floor appears to be around $8, and if for some reason we see a very negative report sending the stock down after hours into the very low $8s, then I will likely be a buyer in the after-hours market. Only on a move toward $10 would I consider a short, but it is not high on my list.
At the time of publication, Tim Collins had no positions in the stocks mentioned.