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SPY-ing on an Election Week Opportunity

The expected move in the SPDR S&P 500 fund into Friday is playable here.
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I'm keeping it simple into Tuesday night's election results. The market is higher with the Volatility Index lower, albeit still in the mid-30s, but I think the estimated 3% or higher move in the SPDR S&P 500 fund (SPY) into Friday is playable here.

There really isn't a ton of thinking that goes into this trade. You either believe the market is going to move post-election or you think it will be range-bound. I tend to side with the idea it will move.

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There is a technical driver to this. We do have multiple bullish triggers on the daily chart. The Full Stochastics, moving average convergence/divergence, and parabolic stop-and-reverse (PSAR) have all flipped bullish Tuesday. The pattern is a very wide wedge, so any break of support or resistance should create a vacuum move, either sucking higher to $346 or lower to $325.

I also believe Tuesday will serve as a trap, either for those who bought if we drop Wednesday, or those who shorted if we gap higher Wednesday.

That's it. There's no need to overthink it.

Rather than rolling with a straight straddle, I'm buying an iron condor and focusing the levels I mentioned above.

The trade:

Buy to open Nov. 6 $336 SPY straddle

Sell to open Nov. 6, $324 put / $348 call strangle

Net cost: $829

Max risk: $829

Max reward: $371

Days until expiration: 3

Breakeven: $327.71 & $344.29

I would look to park the straddle as close to the closing price as possible and use around a $12 spread. In the end, this will need a 2.5% move between today's close and Friday to see green.

At the time of publication, Timothy Collins was long SPY condor.