So, There Was a Point to All the Pinterest Activity
For the past few days, the call activity from Pinterest (PINS) has been off the charts at times. It was as if someone thought big news was coming. Given the recency of the company's earnings, there was no reason to believe it would come in the form of increased guidance. The name always has a buyout potential in my view, so I thought we might see something of that nature, and we still could, but news did hit this morning: According to TechCrunch, Microsoft Edge (MSFT) is getting Pinterest integration, sidebar search, and automatic profile switching.
Pinterest's recent quarterly report may not have excited people after what we saw from Snap (SNAP) and Facebook FB , but there was nothing in it that I read as disappointing. The social media site doesn't have the same intricacies of the other two, but also a lot less negativity and politics. Those drive user engagement, but not in a lasting way. Toxic environments have a way of becoming something people avoid. Pinterest avoids that. This integration should help drive traffic. I still believe the post-Covid-19 world will involve more side-hustles, as folks want to protect themselves from future employment hiccups. That should also drive traffic and business on Pinterest.
Less than a week ago, when Pinterest was trading at $17.73, I posted a trade idea to buy the May 22, 2020, $16.50 calls for $1.70. Those are now sitting around $2.70. Not a bad 60% gain in a few days.
I want to roll these higher by selling those calls and replacing them with June 19, 2020, $20 to $22 call spreads for $0.70. This means, I'll net $0.30 on the trade and still have $2.00 more upside.
The trade (after selling the $16.50 calls)
Buy to open: June 19, 2020, $20 - $22 calls at $0.70
Net cost: $70
Max risk: $70
Max reward: $130
Breakeven: $20.70
Days until expiration: 31
If you didn't have the calls, then I would likely lower my long strike to a $19.50 or consider an uncovered $19.50 call on this trade.
In looking at the technical setup, there's a reason I don't think this one is too late to chase. We have a nice post-earnings "V" pattern as sellers have been exhausted and shares have bounced off support. Note the bullish crossover in the Full Stochastics tied to the bullish flip of the parabolic stop-and-reverse. We saw that happen around the March lows as well. I expect Pinterest to enter a new trading zone of $19.50 to $21.50 over the next month. Pullbacks to the $18.50 area should be bought, but if we close under $18 for two days in a row, then a more neutral stance should be adopted.
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At the time of publication, Timothy Collins was long PINS.