Fitz Bits: The Fearful & the Greedy
Yesterday really felt like a bloodbath, didn't it?
Well, stocks go up and stocks go down. The main problem that most traders deal with (particularly the inexperienced ones) is that they look at what is already printed on the chart and then make their decisions as if the event hadn't already happened.
What I mean is that when you see a big selloff, don't you feel like you should sell? And when you see a big rally, don't you feel like you should be buying? Of course you do. Only the liars and very experienced traders would deny it.
That's the point. When you've gained enough trading experience, you innately know that the chart is a picture of history. It's already happened. This should be intuitively obvious, but it's a quirk of human nature to miss this. Instead, we panic after we've seen a selloff, and we get giddy after we see a rally. That should only be the case if you were short and long, respectively.
By selling after you see a big downdraft, you don't get to magically benefit from the selloff. It's already happened. Instead, you should be looking at the chart and thinking, "How much lower will it go before it's time to buy?" The more pronounced the selloff, the sooner in time we are likely to see a rebound.
As Warren Buffet is often quoted as saying, "Be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy."
Strive to be the greedy one in times of fear and the fearful one in times of greed. That way you'll be the hunter and not the hunted. After the hunt, it typically has worked out better for the hunter.
Now, with that said, do you think I'm looking at yesterday's bloodbath as a buying opportunity? Nope.
The trends haven't really broken, they're just thinking about it. But the best scenario for us hunters is for the market to take a big dive. Only then will the prey be slow and vulnerable. Until then, remain patient and pick your shorts carefully.
If you have a stock you'd like me to check out, please email me at Dan@StockMarketMentor.com.
Now, let's look at the S&P, along with four other charts that are quite interesting and potentially profitable.
Look at this daily chart of the S&P. The most-bearish element of this chart is not the break of support and a close below the 50-day moving average. The most-bearish aspect of the price action is that there was absolutely no follow-through after the Tuesday/Wednesday rally. Instead, the S&P opened flat and then just sold off from there. That's a problem because it reveals that there is just no particular appetite for stocks at these levels. The resistance line drawn above wasn't even tested. And as the S&P fell, the momentum increased and even a late-day spurt of buying petered out and the S&P closed near the lows.
But trading volume was just average, which indicates to me that this wasn't a washout. Frankly, I wish it was because then I'd be greedy. As it is, I'm right in between fearful and greedy. If tomorrow is a repeat of today, we could see a whoosh like we saw in January. I sure hope that happens because I'm a trader and traders love this type of volatility.
Facebook briefly broke above a downtrending resistance line drawn on the daily chart above. But yesterday morning, the stock gapped up slightly and then proceeded to form a bearish engulfing pattern. A bearish engulfing pattern is ... bearish. It is formed when a stock opens higher than the prior day's intraday high and closes lower than the prior day's intraday low. It's basically swallowed up the prior day's range and gone the other way.
Notice how trading volume was a bit higher than usual. That lends even more credence to the notion that Facebook is going lower. My bet is that at the very least, Monday's low will be tested. That's not much of a target, but this market is volatile. Beyond that, I'd just be guessing. But if FB starts falling tomorrow, I'll be short. I like these bearish engulfing patterns. It's easy to like them when you are a grizzly bear.
I recently covered Gilead, noting the weak bounce off the 200-day moving average, noting that a break below the 200-day moving average would be a sell signal. Well, sell. That's what happened yesterday and the selloff was on very high volume. So, this is a stock that's under institutional distribution. This type of volume isn't generated by retail traders shorting blocks of 100 shares. It's big money finding the exits. I think there is more downside here. At some point, the stock will show us a violent reversal after downside momentum has peaked, but it doesn't look like we're quite there yet.
One stock that was actually up yesterday was McDonalds (MCD), so I'd be remiss to avoid covering it. This weekly chart shows a multi-month high base between $104 and $94. Back in early 2013, the stock peaked at $104. But that peak is so far back in time that it's not particularly relevant to today's trading activity. Too much trading has taken place for there to be much emotional investment in that peak. So MCD is free to move higher. And if it was up on a weak day, imagine what it'll do when stocks rebound (as they always do)?
This daily chart of TSLA shows a flat triangle that's breaking down. The stock has been trending lower since the late February peak and being short has been profitable. I'll admit that I'm a bit afraid of trading TSLA because it's such a cult stock and subject to big moves on headlines. (And I've driven a Tesla. If you haven't, then you have no idea why the major automakers are so afraid of this company. When they build a more affordable model, GM (GM) and Ford (F) will be in huge trouble, as if GM wasn't already in huge trouble.) This company is a game changer in the auto business. That's not my opinion, it's a fact.
But just because I think the company is a game changer doesn't mean that I'm bullish on the stock. I'm actually short. I think that a break below $200 will make the way for a massive move lower for the simple reason that the obvious level to buy is $200. Think like the typical sidelines buyer. "Hmm. Tesla is coming down. Well, if it gets to $ 200, I'll buy it." At the same time, it's logical to place stops just below $200. Think like the logical long and scared bull. "If it falls below $200, I'm selling."
So, if this $200 price level breaks down, the takeaway is that there is just not that much buying interest at $200. When the stock goes lower, we're likely to see stops being hit and shorts pouncing. That will take TSLA where the bulls don't want it to go.
Again, if you want me to check out your stock, email me at Dan@StockMarketMentor.com.
Be careful out there.
At the time of publication, the author was short TSLA.