Skip to main content

FedEx Falters

The momentum unleashed in today's downside reversal could carry shares lower in the near term.
  • Author:
  • Publish date:
Comments

FedEx (FDX) is taking an ugly hit today on very heavy selling pressure. The drop of more than 4% placed the transportation powerhouse among the top five NYSE decliners at midday. This is a sharp reversal from yesterday's high-volume 1.25% gain.

During Wednesday's pre-earnings action, FedEx rose to within $0.50 of its February peak before fading a bit on the close. The stock opened today's session with a deep gap-lower open, and after a brief bounce, it has dropped down to last week's lows. The bullish action during yesterday's pre-earnings move caught many longs off guard. The momentum unleashed in today's downside reversal could carry shares lower in the near term.

FedEx appeared headed for a major breakout earlier this week. With a news-inspired spark, the stock would have the power to take out very heavy resistance between $98.70 and $97.00. This major supply zone had capped last year's highs and included monthly peaks in January, February, April, May and June. The powerful bull move that began last October reached this same level last month and was turned away again. After a healthy pullback, FedEx was back in rally mode in the second week of March. The stock moved steadily higher during this run but was unable to attract consistent upside volume until yesterday. FedEx closed Wednesday with its heaviest upside day of the year. Despite the big jump in trade, the old highs did not give way.

FDX Daily

TradeStation

View Chart »View in New Window »

I expect today's breakdown action to lead to a deeper pullback. It's possible that FedEx is leaving behind an ominous series of monthly highs that could remain in place for an extended period of time, but it is too early in the process at this point. A weak period for FedEx, which is the No. 2 holding in the iShares Dow Jones Transportation Fund (IYT), will be a heavy weight for the transports. The transports have also been working on a heavy supply layer near the February peak. Last week, the IYT reached the $96.00 level before fading this week. A monthly double top may be developing here as well.

The overall bullish action that has dominated the movement in FDX since October has left multiple layers of support in place. The stock has stabilized near the $91.00 area, but I doubt the light support here will hold. I expect FedEx to break through trendline support in the next few sessions. Once through the $91.00 area, the stock will be headed for a re-test of the March lows at $88.00. This is the initial layer of a key support zone that stretches down to $86.00.

A dip all the way down to $86.00, which includes the October/December peaks as well as the huge breakout gap left behind on Jan. 10, would offer a very low-risk buying opportunity. After a base-building period near this major support area, FedEx could regain the strength to topple the upper $90s. I maintain a small long position in the stock and will be adding at lower levels.