The powerful eight-week run that carried EMC Corp. (EMC) more than 20% higher is giving way to a healthy pullback. Over the last two weeks, the rally has lost momentum despite moving past the 2013 high. At the same time, EMC has moved into overbought territory as upside trade has waned. In coming weeks, I expect EMC to trace out a healthy pullback followed by a new base. When complete, the stock will be set up well for a fresh bull run.
EMC Corp. (EMC)
Source: FreeStockCharts.com
View Chart »View in New Window »
After taking a vicious hit in late January, EMC rebounded quickly in early February. The rally through nearly all of last month was very impressive. The stock didn't show any signs of weakness until the January high was retested as February ended. After a gap-lower open to begin this month, shares have returned to the same bullish pattern that dominated February. On Monday, March 17, the stock closed above the monthly double top that formed the 2013 high. The move higher from the $27.30 area has had difficulty attracting new bulls.
In the near term, I believe EMC will be unable to clear the $28.50 area. The stock will need a healthy pullback first. There is considerable support near the Jul/September 2013 highs, but I am expecting a deeper pullback. I am focusing on the area of the January/February highs near $26.55. A light-volume fade back down to this area, followed by a consolidation, will recharge the rally and offer a low-risk entry opportunity.
At the time of publication, Morrow was long EMC, although positions may change at any time.