It now seems that everyone -- and not just CNBC -- is watching that ancient index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average. I have highlighted this chart several times in recent weeks, but it's time to take another look. The Dow is now literally sitting right on a line, especially when we use closing prices.
When dealing with such large numbers, we should use this rule of thumb: It's a break if you can plainly see it, but if you're wondering whether it actually broke, it did not happen. For the Dow, the line in question appears to be around 14,750. A clear break from there would probably bring the 200-day moving-average line into the picture, around 14,400.
If you're wondering why I am highlighting this, it's because the Dow is highlighted on the evening news -- not the S&P 500, the Nasdaq or the Russell 2000. As a result, the general public reacts to what the Dow does.
With that in mind, I have thought that the Dow should rally off this short-term oversold condition, and that this should create the right shoulder of a head-and-shoulders top. However, the best we've seen has been last week's two-day rally. An oversold market that can't rally is a weak one, so let's pay attention to this.
There is one other negative factor I want to highlight, and it is the Dow Jones Utility Average. Interest rates on U.S. Treasuries were lower Thursday, so why didn't the utilities join in the fun? This index is still more than 10 points from having a breakdown, but if it doesn't start holding soon, we'll consider it a reason to be cautious.
Elsewhere, let's take a look at the Hi-Lo Indicator, which is now at the lowest reading since the 2011 nadir. In fact, on Wednesday it tagged 17% -- and, if you'll notice, the red line resides at 15%. Once the indicator gets down to that level, the market won't necessarily rebound as easily as what folks have gotten used to in the last year. However, such levels do tend to coincide with important market bottoms.
Notice the indicator's action in the 2008-to-2009 period, and then the summer and fall of 2011. Those periods both saw major lows in the market, but each of them took quite some time to form. Either way, once we get down to this area the market enters a long-term oversold condition.
In other good news, the intermediate-term indicator McClellan Summation Index is now within the range where a decent up day or two will finally halt the slide. If this does occur, it will represent the first time in more than a month that this has happened.
The market is still reading as a bit short-term oversold, so we could have some more rally attempts. Thus far, those attempts have not been great, but at least stocks are heading closer to an intermediate-term oversold condition.
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At the time of publication, Meisler had no positions in the securities mentioned.