I realize it sounds as though we have giddiness all around us and perhaps, in the next few days, we'll have some indicators that confirm that. But in the last few months, each high in the market has been accompanied by an equity put/call ratio that dipped into the 40s and we haven't seen that yet.
So far, it has gotten down to 54%, which might seem close, but in options land a reading in the 40s is not commonplace while a reading in the 50s is.
It is possible that the move in Google (GOOG) on Friday will work its way into some form of giddiness in the market, but being a slave to my statistics, I'd prefer to see it first. I suppose it is also possible that such an outsized move in Google on big volume could help improve those Nasdaq statistics as well. Thursday did nothing to improve them, so if they are going to improve, they need something more than what they have so far.
Oddly enough, the one place it felt that everyone got excited was the Utes, which has been one of my favorite groups for months now. Being a contrarian, I hate that everyone now loves this group. I suppose it was the crossing of the downtrend line that got everyone so excited over this group that they had written off for so long.
There is still some trouble at 500 and again at 510, but that base should eventually -- meaning longer term -- measure up toward the 530 area. I doubt it will be in a straight line.
Then there is gold, where oddly enough I did not see much giddiness. I was not surprised to see the bounce off the lower channel line that I drew in here on Monday, but I was quite surprised to see it cross over the upper line. If it can now clear $1325, that would be bullish. In fact, a pullback toward $1300 would produce a retest of the downtrend line and a mini head-and -houlders bottom with a neckline at $1325.
Perhaps gold has disappointed folks so often in the last two years, since it made its high around $1800, but I find it fascinating so little attention was paid to its move on Thursday. So far, the contrarian in me likes that.
Finally, I am certain you will see this line drawn on the chart of the S&P everywhere you look. It has worked like a charm at each high in the S&P for the last six months. I suspect it will work again and we will see some backing off when we tag it. Perhaps that happens as we move back toward an overbought reading next week.
At the time of publication, the author had no positions in any of the securities mentioned.