Skip to main content

Caution Signs Are Flashing in My Mind as the New Year Begins

The biotech sector looks ripe for staging a comeback, but a significant geopolitical event could throw the entire market for a loop.
  • Author:
  • Publish date:
Comments

The old year 2021 mercifully came to a close last week. COVID was far from shut down during the year, but the country avoided another round of lockdowns and saw a year of economic recovery even as COVID fatalities in 2021 surpassed those of 2020. Let's hope Omicron pushes the coronavirus into endemic status by the end of the first half of 2022.

Last year was a good one for investors, provided they had their portfolios tilted to large-caps. The S&P 500 rose more than 25% for the year (as seen in the chart for the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) ), more than doubling the return of the small-cap Russell 2000.

SPY chart

Image placeholder title

As we start the New Year, here are some predictions for 2022.

No Repeat of Double-Digit Returns

Whether it is price-to-earnings (P/E) multiples near historical highs, inflation at its highest rate since the early 1980s or just a less accommodative monetary policy in 2022, it is hard to see a repeat of 2021 for investors.

I highly doubt the S&P delivers double-digit returns over the next year. If I could be guaranteed a high single-digit return in 2022; I would sign up for that right now.

Major Geopolitical Disruption Happens

One reason I am not sanguine on the market is the odds of a significant geopolitical event seem higher than they have been in some time. The Biden administration has hardly projected strength in its first year in office and is still dealing with the aftermath of the poorly planned and botched withdrawal last summer from Afghanistan after two decades of U.S. involvement in the country.

The nation's adversaries seem emboldened as we enter 2022. Russian troops have massed on the Ukrainian border as their leader demands considerable concessions from the West to de-escalate the situation. It is easy to see the Chinese resuming their more aggressive stance on Taiwan as soon as the Olympic Games have ended. Finally, Iran looks like it is ready to become more aggressive with its nuclear development, which could easily trigger an armed response from Israel. However you pick your poison, I can see and expect at least one geopolitical event emerging in 2022 that causes the markets to sell off by 5% to 10% and perhaps more given the already stretched valuations of equities.

Biotech Rebounds

Ending on a more optimistic note for my first column of 2022, I do think biotech rebounds in the New Year after a dismal year in 2021. Big Pharma is flush with cash and many potential small and midcap targets are at oversold levels, as attested to by the chart for the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) .

Image placeholder title

It is the perfect combination for a significant pick-up in merger-and-acquisition activity and nothing gets the animal spirits stirring more in this space than a few acquisitions with large buyout premiums. In addition, COVID-19 should become endemic in 2022 and should allow the healthcare system to return to normality, which should be a positive for the sector as well.

And those are some things I am watching for as we begin the New Year.

At the time of publication, Jensen had no positions in the stocks mentioned.