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Can Five Below Continue to Rise?

FIVE has not finished its rally, but caution is warranted -- set sell stops at its year-to-date low.
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Five Below (FIVE) has been a high-flyer for the past few years, but can the stock continue to rise? Last week, the company reported quarterly earnings $0.02 ahead of expectations, with same-store sales climbing by 4.4%.

However, the company's full-year forward earnings guidance for 2019 was underwhelming. The retailer blamed short-term issues, particularly its new Atlanta distribution center.

Five Below says construction of the new facility will reduce 2019 earnings by $0.05 per share. The center will allow the Philadelphia-based retailer to expand more rapidly in the southern U.S. Five Below plans to open over 90 new stores this year, including 16 in Florida.

The earnings report generated some interesting short-term price action in the stock. Initially, investors chose to look on the bright side, leading to an 8% post-earnings gain on March 28 (point A). However, this gain led to the formation a bearish candle known as a hanging man (arrow).

That candle was followed by a three-day selloff, causing all of Five Below's post-earnings gains to evaporate (point B). The ensuing pullback caused the March 28 gap to close, a bullish development, and on April 3, the price bounced sharply from short-term support (black line).

Traders looking to capitalize on the stock's price action can buy at current levels, with the understanding that the trade should be exited if the price drops below $113. A drop below that level places the stock below its current year-to-date low (point C), a bearish development. It would also push the stock beneath Five Below's 200-day moving average (red), currently at $113.54.

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That covers short-term traders, but what about long-term investors? On the weekly chart, the stock has formed a bullish pattern known as an inverse head and shoulders (semicircles). This is similar to the pattern that recently led to a breakout in Lululemon Athletica (LULU) . Using a measuring technique, this bullish pattern suggests that Five Below could climb to $160.

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Five Below continues to rise above its competition. In fact, it's difficult to define who exactly qualifies as a competitor. Discount stores like Dollar Tree (DLTR) and Dollar General (DG) differ greatly from Five Below, in terms of product mix and atmosphere.

Five Below provides inexpensive fun for kids and young adults, and occupies its niche in a unique way. The fact that the company is reinvesting profits into infrastructure is a positive. As long as Five Below continues to execute, there's no reason why this stock can't reach new highs.

At the time of publication, Ponsi was long FIVE.