While the charts of the major equity indices showed some improvement Thursday, the data dashboard has become more cautionary. The data is suggesting the potential for some consolidation/retracement of the recent gains has increased.
It may be a time to curb some enthusiasm.
On the Charts
The major equity indices closed mixed Thursday with the DJIA and Dow Transports declining as the rest advanced. Breadth and up/down volumes were positive.
On the plus side, the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, Nasdaq 100 and S&P MidCap 400 Index closed above short-term resistance, turning their near-term trends back to positive from neutral. The cumulative advance/decline lines for the All Exchange, NYSE and NASDAQ remain positive as well.
So, there is little to complain about strictly from a chart basis except that the % of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages has elevated to 76.6% (see chat below). Counterintuitively, it is approaching levels that have sometimes been associated with stalls or retracements as noted on the chart.
The % of SPX stocks > their 50 DMAs is 76.6% (cautionary)
Data Concerns
Our concerns are coming from the data side of the equation.
All of the McClellan Overbought/Oversold Oscillators are nicely overbought (All Exchange:+99.06/+129.41 NYSE:+119.39/+160.28 NASDAQ:+80.97/+102.69). Also, the crowd is now heavy in calls via the Equity Put/Call Ratio (contrary indicator) at a bearish 0.53 while the pros measured by the OEX Put/Call Ratio are up to their eyeballs in puts at a very bearish 3.75.
The detrended Rydex Ratio (contrary indicator) has moderated to a mildly bullish -0.88 versus its extremely bullish -3.78 from a few weeks ago as the leveraged ETF traders have completed a significant amount of their short covering.
Valuation
Valuation remains below fair value, despite the S&P 500's forward earnings estimate from Bloomberg dipping to $168.71 per share. The S&P 500 is now trading at a P/E multiple of 16.0x consensus 12-month EPS estimates, versus the "rule of 20" implied fair value multiple of 17.4x.
The "earnings yield" stands at 6.24%.
Our Outlook
The charts have yet to flash any notable cautionary signals, thus suggesting we maintain our near term "positive" outlook for the equity indices. However, the data has increased its intensity, suggestive of some pause/retracement of January's gains. It's a time to keep bullish emotions tempered, in our opinion.
At the time of publication, Ortmann had no positions in any securities mentioned.