Warren Buffett sometimes makes mistakes. Most were based more on poor timing or failure to sell holdings when they reached overpriced levels, as with Coca-Cola (KO) and the old Washington Post. His misplays are rarely fatal.
Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) owns about 6.3% of IBM, the worst-performing stock in the DJIA for two years running. That's a rarity for any company. It is highly unlikely to persist during 2015 from today's very reasonable starting point. Year-end tax selling, combined with dumping by portfolio managers that would be embarrassed to show IBM on their fourth-quarter holdings lists, pushed the shares to below $160, near three-year lows.
Despite all IBM's well-publicized problems, the company is solidly profitable, brings in more than $94 billion a year in revenue and pays a $1.10 quarterly dividend. IBM may not be what it used to be, but Big Blue is not disappearing anytime soon.
Over time, IBM should make a nice recovery. It is now offered at less than 11x trailing earnings from operations while yielding 2.78%. The shares touched peaks north of $199 during each of the past four calendar years.IBM is quite tradable from today's level.
Option sellers should consider using the Jan. 2017 $155 puts as a very low-risk play that brings in substantial premium. The last trade was $18.30 bringing the "if exercised" break-even price down to $136.70.
IBM has not changed hands at that low a price since 2010, when earnings per share were on track for $11.52 vs. an expected $15 or so in 2014. At $136.70, the implied yield rises to 3.22% even without any further increases.
Maximum profit would be keeping 100% of the $1,830 per contract received up front. The stock doesn't even need to go up for that to play out. It is a few dollars above the $155 strike price even as "everybody" hates it.
The worst-case scenario is not scary. It is a forced purchase of 100 shares per contract at a price more than $23 below the trade inception quote. Option writers have an almost 15% margin of safety on what is still a blue-chip name.
When you hear that "everybody" is getting out of IBM, remember that there is somebody on the other side of every trade. We might find out after year-end that they were selling to Mr. Buffett.
At the time of publication, Price was long IBM shares and short IBM Jan. 2017 $155 puts, although positions may change at any time.