4 Fearless Fourth-Quarter Predictions
It is hard to believe we are kicking off trading in the fourth quarter today. The year seems to have gone by so fast. Despite all the political dysfunction we seem to have had all year, the market has treated investors very well to this point. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are at all-time highs and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is within a whisker of its high watermark. Hopefully this continues and we end the year on a solid note. Here are a few predictions for the final quarter of the year.
Small-Caps Will Outperform
Large-caps have outperformed their smaller-cap brethren all year. However, small-caps recently have started to perk up. The Russell 2000 was up more than 3% last week. As Washington's attention shifts from trying to repeal the Affordable Care Act to tax reform and possibly a large infrastructure spending package, the environment for small-cap stocks should continue to improve. Now that energy prices seemed to have stabilized and are well off their bottoms, a lot of small-cap energy stocks are doing much better as well.
Tax Reform Chances Are Iffy
Unfortunately, given the rancor in D.C., a united opposition and a slim Republican majority in the Senate, the chances that significant tax reform is enacted this year do not seem very high. I think the best-case scenario is some sort of broad-based outline is created that might be able to pass in the first half of 2018. One would think the need to rebuild Houston, parts of Florida and Puerto Rico would mean that a large infrastructure spending package would be easier to pass. However, given the acrimony between the two parties, even this seems iffy at the moment.
Global Growth Will Continue to Improve
For the first time since the global recession ended, we seem to get getting improved economic performance from all the major economies. Europe finally is printing some decent GDP growth levels and China seems to be doing quite nicely, which certainly is helping the commodity complex in 2017. Outside a major geopolitical event, I believe this trend will continue into 2018, which should be a good backdrop for central banks to unwind some of their previous quantitative easing programs.
Interest Rates Should Continue to Increase Incrementally
The market has adjusted quite well to the Federal Reserve's series of well-spaced quarter-point hikes over the past year. I think this continues, and with global growth strengthening and our economy doing OK as well the easiest path for interest rates seems to be for a gradual rise. This trend should help the financial sector while the incremental rise in rates should not upset the housing market, where 30-year mortgage rates are still below 4%.
Those are some quick predictions for the market heading into the fourth quarter with the hope that we can end what has been a very solid year for investors without any hiccups.