At the close of trading, the S&P Short Range Oscillator has ripped higher — to 5.55% (from 3.94%).

Breadth

S&P Sectors

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

NASD Advance/Decline Ratio

Dougie Kass

BA looks like a potential breakout to the upside on the charts... anyone else see this?

Jaw4860

Believe Helene150 to 160 .11/26 .

fishplay

What I see is a stock that needs more work up and down to form a base. And this takes much more time than has been put in. In my opinion I see a stock that is not yet ready to make a major run only to allow random trades for random results with little power behind them. Takes time to heal and prepare a stock like this to seek a long term higher level.

If below 140 is tested again and holds, a much stronger bottom will be established. This will allow the time for the moving averages to flatten and be in a position to rise with the stock.

jpiper

The way I look at iit technically it looks to be breaking a downtrend line, and it is. above the 50 day average, which is a plus. A lastinng breakout to me would need a more substantial base, which we don't have. So on this chart I would not be looking for a major type of move, I'd be looking to. be a buyer on pullbacks to around that $150 area. Nothing like buying a stock cheap like you were successful in doing. I followed you in around $138. Thanks for that.

Equities rose steadily during the morning session, with new highs established.

Wednesday's rise inflation (relative to expectations) has been ignored as (apparently) fund inflows are overwhelming the markets.

Today's "things":

* Shorted  (AAPL)  at $235.93,  (APO)  at $176.16,  (KKR)  at $162.71,  (TSLA)  at $341.48,  (WMT)  at $92.15 and  (XLF)  at $51.48.

From Peter Boockvar:

Positives

1)Scott Bessent has a great resume for a very important job.

2)The US continues to run a huge goods trade deficit and it was $99.1b in October, though about $4b below expectations and down from $109b in September. Both imports and exports fell m/o/m but from everything I’m hearing and seeing, this will reverse itself in November for both post election as many try to get ahead of any tariffs.

3)Personal income accelerated to a .6% gain in October m/o/m, twice the estimate which was quicker than the .4% rise in spending, as forecasted. Private sector income growth in particular continues to remain strong with a .5% m/o/m increase and 5.6% y/o/y vs 5.3% in September. Also lifting the headline income figure was the 8% y/o/y gain in ‘transfer payments’ which is the fastest I’ve seen in a while. Spending rose .4% m/o/m as forecasted. Combining income and spending puts the savings rate at 4.4% from 4.1% in September and 4.4% in August.

4)Pending home sales in October were up 2% m/o/m, better than the estimated decline of 2%. The NAR said this in particular, “The record high stock market is providing a boost for upper end home buyers.” They said home sales did best in “the expensive regions of the Northeast and West.”

5)The US continues to run a huge goods trade deficit and it was $99.1b in October, though about $4b below expectations and down from $109b in September. Both imports and exports fell m/o/m but from everything I’m hearing and seeing, this will reverse itself in November for both post election as many try to get ahead of any tariffs.

6)Within the October durable goods data, shipments rose .2%, one tenth above expectations but not enough to change Q3 GDP estimates.

7)Q3 GDP was left unrevised at 2.8% but it’s old news with us 2/3 done with Q4.

8)Mortgage applications saw a 12.4% w/o/w jump in purchases while refi's fell 2.6%. This as the average 30 yr mortgage rate ticked down by 4 bps w/o/w to 6.86%. While it's great to see the spike in purchases, I caution that this data gets weird around the holidays and the seasonal adjustments around that. Last year saw an earlier Thanksgiving.

9)According to S&P CoreLogic, home prices rose again in September, by .33% m/o/m as the affordability challenge continues for first time buyers while existing homeowners benefit further from rising wealth. Prices are up 3.9% y/o/y but that rate of change is moderating.

10)The November consumer confidence index from the Conference Board was 111.7 as expected but up from 109.6 in October. That’s also the best since July 2023. Most of the gain was in the Present Situation which gained 4.8 pts m/o/m while Expectations was up .4 pts. One year inflation expectations slipped to 4.9% from 5.2% and that is the lowest since March 2020. The answers to the labor market questions were mixed. Notwithstanding the rise in confidence, spending intentions on big ticket items that rely on borrowing at the current high rate weakened after the rise last month.

11)From Burlington Stores: Comps rose 1% and "was impacted by significantly warmer temperatures than last year. After stripping out the impact of these warmer temperatures, our underlying comp store sales growth was very healthy...Many shoppers still think of us as Burlington Coat Factory. In October, our cold weather businesses represent almost a quarter of our sales. This is significantly higher than our peers."

12)From Abercrombie: “As an important indicator of business health and the quality of our playbook, in the third quarter, we continued to see broad based sales growth across regions, brands and vendors, driven by strong traffic. We also saw nice growth in unit selling and AUR (average unit retail) in the quarter, as we were able to reduce promotions compared to last year...We’re seeing the customer continue to respond to marketing and product across brands, across regions and that gives us the confidence to talk about talking up that Q4 number vs what was implied previously.”

13)From Dick's Sporting Goods: “Our back-to-school categories did very well. The strength across footwear, athletic apparel, and team sports." And to a question of why they are outperforming their retail peers who cater in other categories and who have challenged customers, “It’s important, I think, to look at our athlete and how athletes are doing. And they have been for some time prioritizing healthy and active lifestyle, they’re prioritizing team sports…We saw 1.5 million more athletes enter our ecosystem over the past quarter, and we saw growth across all income demographics…I would point to the fact that we’re in such an exciting time in sport and an exciting time in the industry.”

14)From Bath & Body Works: "Our continued product innovation, coupled with improved demand generation, the compelling value of our products, and our team's strong execution drove positive store traffic and conversion for the quarter. Our store traffic exceeded the third-party benchmarks we track. Each of our categories, body care, home fragrance, and soaps and sanitizers grew low single digits y/o/y, and year-to-date, we maintained our overall leading unit market share."

15)The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates by 50 bps to 4.25% as fully expected. This brings the level of rates down by 125 bps since they first started and they hinted that they could go again at their next meeting but maybe not as big.

16)German unemployment rose by 7k in November but that was less than the estimated rise of 20k. Their unemployment rate held at 6.1% as expected.

17)While continuing to flatline at low levels, the Eurozone November Economic Confidence index was 95.8 vs 95.7 and above the forecast of 95.2. Manufacturing confidence was less negative as it was for retail and construction but softened for services and consumer confidence.

18)Eurozone November CPI was as expected up 2.3% y/o/y, though up from 2% in October. The core rate held at 2.7% y/o/y vs the estimate of 2.8%. Services inflation continues to be where it is at, up 3.9% y/o/y vs 4% in the month before.

Negatives

1)There is no free lunch with tariffs and any benefit on one end is going to be paid for on the other and those tariffed are not going to absorb all of it. I'm still waiting to hear what the net benefits were from the 2017-2018 tariffs.

2)Continuing claims is still telling the opposite story as initial claims as it was 1.907mm, the highest since November 2021.

3)The October PCE inflation stats were as expected. The headline rate grew .2% m/o/m and 2.3% y/o/y (vs 2.1% last month). The core rate was higher by .3% m/o/m and 2.8% (vs 2.7% last month). Inflation continues to be solely driven by services which was up by 3.9% y/o/y while goods prices fell by 1%. Food prices were up by 1% while energy prices fell by 5.9% y/o/y.

4)The November Chicago manufacturing index fell to just 40.2 from an already weak 41.6 in October, and thus well below 50. Richmond manufacturing remained in contraction at -14 in November. The Dallas manufacturing index was at -2.7.

5)Core durable goods orders disappointed with an unexpected 2 tenths drop in October m/o/m vs the estimate of up .1% and September saw a downward revision of 4 tenths.

6)According to S&P CoreLogic, their home price index is up 51% since December 2019, adding to the inflationary strain on first time buyers.

7)New home sales totaled just 610k, well below expectations of 725k. That’s also the lowest since November 2022. There was a big drop in the South and I’d guess likely due to the hurricanes and the disruptions it brought. With that, months’ supply rose to 9.5 from 7.7. Sales rose in the Northeast, Midwest and dropped out West.

8)From a contrarian perspective, within the Conference Board's consumer confidence index in October we saw the biggest % of respondents that thought the stock market would rise from here over the coming year, the highest since the question was first asked in 1987. Well, they went even higher in November to 56.4% from 51.9%.

9)From JM Smucker: “consumers continue to be selective in their spending, largely driven by inflationary pressures and diminished discretionary income, causing the sweet baked goods category to recover slower than we have anticipated. These trends are causing a reduction in all channels, inclusive of convenience.”

10)From Nordstrom: "While we continue to be pleased with our year-to-date results, the external environment remains uncertain...we did experience softness in sales that started around the end of October. We also have a shorter holiday season by five days this year...When considering the puts and takes and appreciating that we typically realize about 30% of the full year's net sales and approximately 40% of our annual EBIT in the 4th quarter, we believe it is prudent to remain appropriately cautious with our outlook."

11)From Best Buy: Comps came in below expectations. "During the second half of the quarter, a combination of the ongoing macro uncertainty, customers waiting for deals and sales events, and distraction during the run-up to the election, particularly in non-essential categories, led to softer-than-expected demand. In the first few weeks of Q4, as holiday sales have begun and the election is behind us, we have seen customer demand increase again..."We continue to see a consumer who is seeking value and sales events, and one who is willing to spend on high price point products when they need to our when there is new, compelling technology. Thus, we are balancing our optimism in both the industry and our unique positioning with a pragmatic approach to likely uneven customer behavior going forward."

12)From Kohl's: “In Q3, transactions declined approximately 3% after increasing approximately 2% in Q2. This change represented the entire deceleration in comparable sales in Q3 vs Q2. Softness in transactions was most notable early in the quarter during the back-to-school season with August being the weakest month. Our children’s business was especially challenged in apparel during this time, though improved late in the quarter.”

13)From Leslie's: They saw sales down 8% y/o/y "driven primarily by continued softness in traffic and larger ticket and discretionary products."

14)From Dell Technologies: "The IT spending environment continues to be dynamic with certain areas experiencing faster growth than others...We expect the strength in our server business to continue. However, enterprise and large customers are being more mindful of their PC and storage IT spend in the short term."

15)From HP: On PCs, "our gains in commercial more than offset continued market softness in consumer, where revenue was down 4% with units down 3%, particularly in China and as expected."

16)From Workday: "As we mentioned earlier in the year, it was more of a moderation of expectations and what we saw early in the year. I'm pleased to say we haven't seen any further downtick. In fact, it has moderated. We haven't necessarily seen significant improvement either, so I think it's within our expectations as we plan ahead." And, "I would caution right now, we still believe that, especially in certain areas around the globe and we're a global business, that we are still impacted by increased deal scrutiny."

17)The November German IFO business confidence index fell to 85.7 from 86.5 and just below the estimate of 86. It continues to bounce along the post Covid bottom with most of the November weakness in the Current Assessment. The IFO in its usual succinct way said "The German economy is floundering." The manufacturing component fell to the lowest level since 2009 not including Covid. Services and construction were weaker too, only partly offset by a rise in trade.

18)Consumer confidence in both Germany and France weakened m/o/m with both economies under pressure, particularly Germany with their outsized exposure to manufacturing, particularly in autos. With the German read, the surveyor said "Concerns about job security in Germany are growing. The reasons for this are certainly the job cuts reported by industry and the relocation of production abroad. In addition, the number of insolvencies has risen recently. In short, the consumer climate remains poor."

19)The November Tokyo CPI was hotter than expected, rising by 2.6% y/o/y, 4 tenths more than anticipated and faster than the 1.8% seen in October. The core/core rate though was as estimated, up by 1.9% y/o/y. The odds now of a December hike are above 50% and the yen is rallying in response.

20)Japan also reported a one tenth uptick in its unemployment rate to 2.5%, though also a rise in the job to applicant ratio to 1.25.

21)German retail sales in October were weak, falling by 1.5% m/o/m, more than the forecasted drop of .5%, only partly offset by a 4 tenths upward revision to September.

Volume

- NYSE volume 23% below its one-month average.

- NASDAQ volume 32% below its one-month average.

Breadth

Sectors

% Movers

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

* This is nearly my 50th 'More Tales From Nvidia.'

* In looking at the share prices of  (DELL) ,  (HPQ)  (and even  (NVDA) ) ... some of my AI concerns are beginning to be reflected in their share prices.

The issue I address this morning is of consumption of AI.

Dell, HPQ and Apple  (AAPL)  are not seeing any uptake of their products because of AI, and their stock prices are being hit.

Most people don’t care; AI seems to move the needle less for them than a better camera on their phone. The investment side is through the roof obviously, but not the use side. Eventually, you need customers!

Microsoft  (MSFT)  stock has been a "dog with fleas" for a while (flat since early February, underperforming Nasdaq by 12 points and software by 15 points). The company seems to be dumping too much money into AI (copilot), and not getting an acceptable return. Their customers do not value it. They are not even showing the full amount of expense on their books, because a lot of it is off the books via Chat GPT. Eventually, economic gravity takes over, regardless of all the accounting shenanigans, investing money into your own customers to fund them to buy parts, etc. All the B.S. can extend the cycle, but it cannot make it work at the end of the day. End customers need to value the product, and pay for it.

The articles addressing the subject below are interesting:

• Dell, HP Shares Plunge After AI Fails To Ignite "PC Refresh Cycle"

• AI Fails To Spark Upgrade Supercycle For Apple

• Inside Microsoft's struggles with Copilot

Interesting news on Dell … and sort of consistent with the third-party AI server integrator they use cratering about a month ago. One more thing that makes you wonder where all the stuff is going. Hard for me to believe Super Micro  (SMCI)  is gaining share all of the sudden given their issues.

"AI server revenues were in​-​line, but guided slightly lower into the January quarter despite positive comments around the pipeline"

And here's one more story -- this on NVDA accounting -- though most will continue to ignore and are uninterested in the accounting probe:

A Deep Dive Beyond Nvidia (Cooked) Numbers

"Gratitude is not only the greatest of virtues but the parent of all others."

- Cicero

Bonus — Here are some great links:

Five Things to Know About December 

The Missing Piece Is Here

The Stock Charts We Care About 

How We Find Our Biggest Winners 

Understanding Market Momentum

Charts from 8:49 a.m. ET:

Chart from 9:10 a.m. ET:

Upside:

-SILO +18% (enters Joint Development Agreement with Kymanox for SP-26 Ketamine Implant Device Targeting Pain Management)

-VYGR +7.3% (hearing Wedbush, Inc. Assumed VYGR with Outperform, price target: $11)

-MSTR +4.1% (traders circulate unverified chatter that NASDAQ 100 reconstitution on Nov 29th may include Microstrategy)

-LRCX +2.8% (financial press report claims Biden Administration crackdown on semiconductor sales to China may be less severe than forecast)

-HOOD +2.4% (momentum)

-AMAT +2.3% (financial press report claims Biden Administration crackdown on semiconductor sales to China may be less severe than forecast)

Downside:

-APLT -75% (FDA completed its review for Govorestat, and was unable to approve the NDA in its current form, citing deficiencies in the clinical application)

-XP -8.5% (broad Brazil weakness following President Lula spending cuts)

-STNE -6.2% (broad Brazil weakness following President Lula spending cuts; reportedly unimpressed by nonbinding offers for Linx)

-NU -5.2% (broad Brazil weakness following President Lula spending cuts)

-EWZ -4.9% (broad Brazil weakness following President Lula spending cuts)

-PAGS -3.2% (broad Brazil weakness following President Lula spending cuts)

The S&P Short Range Oscillator has risen rapidly over the last week or so.

Overnight the Oscillator, has advanced from 2.77% to 3.94%.

Despite Tom Lee's utterings, the universal bullish investor sentiment, the rising strategists' price targets, the explosion in ETF inflows and the strong momentum and positive seasonality, I am growing even more bearish on the outlook for equities over the next six to 12 months.

Over the last few days I have increased my short book (and, as noted earlier, I did again last evening).

* At around 10:35 EST (7:35 PCT)!... 

* Sold  (SPY)  (long) at $600.65.

* Sold  (QQQ)  (long) at $507.83.

Hate New York City
It's cold and it's damp
And all the people dressed like monkeys
Let's leave Chicago to the Eskimos
That town's a little bit too rugged
For you and me you bad girl

Rollin' down the Imperial Highway
With a big nasty redhead at my side
Santa Ana winds blowing hot from the north
And we as born to ride

Roll down the window, put down the top
Crank up the Beach Boys, baby
Don't let the music stop
We're gonna ride it till
We just can't ride it no more

From the South Bay to the Valley
From the West Side to the East Side
Everybody's very happy
'Cause the sun is shining all the time
Looks like another perfect day

I love L.A. (we love it)
I love L.A. (we love it)
We love it

- Randy Newman, I Love L.A.