As of 4:20 p.m.:

Closing Breadth

S&P 500 Sector ETFs

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map 

Nasdaq Advance-Decline Intraday Chart

St. Joe  (JOE)  is up off of the mat. 

I'm adding to this long.

Wolf Street howls about Boeing's  (BA)  financing plans.

* After the close...

There will be no "Things" column today as I haven't executed a trade since we published "Today's Trades."

Here was the column:

Today's Trades

* Shorted more (AAPL) at $233.39.

* Added to (BA) long at $152.06.

* Shorted more (BAC) at $42.42.

* Initiated a small short in (C) at $63.92.

* Add very small to short (DJT) calls.

* Buying (JOE) (slowly!) at $53.32.

* Shorted more (JPM) at $224.29.

* Shorted more (NVDA) at $141.92.

* Shorted (QQQ) at $499.26 and (SPY) at $582.61.

Position: Long JOE (S), BA (S), SPY common (S), QQQ common (S); Short BAC (S), C (VS), DJT calls (VS), JPM (M), NVDA (S), SPY calls (M), QQQ calls (M), AAPL (S)

By Doug Kass Oct 28, 2024 11:55 AM EDT

* Interest rates continue to rise...

Uh, here I go, here I go, here I go again
Girls, what's my weakness? (Men!)
Okay, then, chilling, chilling, minding my business (word)
Yo, Salt, I looked around and I couldn't believe this
I swear, I stared, my niece my witness
The brother had it going on with something kinda, oh

- Shoop, Salt-N-Pepa Salt-N-Pepa - Shoop

Despite consensus expectations for lower rates (since the Fed cut), yields continue to rise today:

* The yield on the 1-year Treasury bill is 4.31% (+1 basis point).

* The yield on the 2-year Treasury note is 4.15% (+6 basis points).

* The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is 4.30% (+ 7basis points).

* The yield on the long bond is 4.55% (+5 basis points).

From Charlie:

* Lower consensus S&P EPS expectations were discussed in today's opener.

* I continue to call B.S. to phony narratives in the business media.

Late last week on the sharp break in the share price (after FTC objections to the company's proposed takeover), I took a small long position in Capri  (CPRI) .

I did work over the weekend and I can't support owning it based on a deeper dive into the fundamentals.

Gone.

* Shorted more  (AAPL)  at $233.39.

* Added to  (BA)  long at $152.06.

* Shorted more  (BAC)  at $42.42.

* Initiated a small short in  (C)  at $63.92.

* Add very small to short  (DJT)  calls.

* Buying  (JOE)  (slowly!) at $53.32.

* Shorted more  (JPM)  at $224.29.

* Shorted more  (NVDA)  at $141.92.

* Shorted  (QQQ)  at $499.26 and  (SPY)  at $582.61.

Breadth

Percentage Movers

S&P 500 Sectors

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

* On many metrics the S&P Index is more overvalued than at any time in nearly two decades

Note: This painting is part of my sister's (Deborah Kass's) "No Kidding" series (2015-present). Debbie's "No Kidding" deploys the aesthetic formalism of post-war abstraction, as did her feel good paintings for feel bad times. But now, like my ursine market forecast, the mood has changed. The palette has shifted to dark colors and the surfaces of the paintings are worn and washed out. Seemingly positive lyrical phrases such as how "Happy Days Are Here Again" and "We'll Be Young Forever" contrast with a sense that everything is not alright.

And here's a relevant pair of quotes from Berkshire Hathway's annual meeting:

Warren Buffett: 'I would rather be 100x too cautious than 1% too incautious -- and that will continue as long as I'm around.'

Charlie Munger: 'If we had used the leverage that a lot of successful operators did, Berkshire would be a lot bigger-- but we would have been sweating at night.'

I continue to be cautious regarding our stock market outlook. The advance in stocks has continued and the "animal spirits" have taken valuations ever higher -- despite a continued reduction in corporate profit expectations. Specifically, over the last four months, the consensus expectations for third-quarter 2024 profit growth have dropped from a forecast year-over-year gain of 8% to less than 4%. To reach consensus 2025 S&P earnings per share forecasts, a questionable "hockey stick" recovery in profits will be necessary. Even more surprising is that the stock market has climbed, despite a rise of 65-basis points (up another four or five basis points this morning to a three-month high) in 10-year Treasury bond yields since the Federal Reserve's half percentage-point rate cut: 

This recent backup in interest rates has followed an almost equal rise in inflation expectations:

As a direct result -- and ignored by market participants (much like in mid-2007) -- is that unrealized bank industry securities losses are multiplying, reaching over $512 billion in the second quarter of 2024. This is 7-times higher than at the peak of the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. (Bank of America  (BAC) , alone, has 20% of the total of unrealized held-to-maturity securities losses): 

Also ignored by market participants (much like mid-2007), is that unrealized bank industry real estate losses are staggering:

Moreover:

* As I have observed previously, the dividend yield on the S&P index now stands at a meager 1.30% (versus 1.6% a year ago). That's compared to the 4.35% yield on the risk-free one-year Treasury bill. In other words, U.S.Treasuries now provide a near unprecedented (and greater than) 3-times the return that the dividends on the S&P index deliver in yield.

 * These factors have contributed to an equity risk premium (see Equity Risk Premiums (ERP): Determinants, Estimation, and Implications – The 2024 Edition by Aswath Damodaran :: SSRN). The S&P earnings yield (inverse of the S&P's price earnings ratio) less the risk-free rate of return available in bonds are declining to levels that are consistent with negative forward returns on equities:

Here is a more updated view of how paper thin the equity risk premium is in the U.S. stock market:

 Finally, the equity risk premium is among the best metrics in predicting future returns:

Another solid metric, The Buffett Indicator, is now at 199%, the highest level in history, surpassing the dot-com bubble and The Great Financial Crisis:

Equities, based on traditional valuation metrics, are in the 90%-95% tile of valuation:

The S&P 500 Index trailing 12-month price-to-earnings ratio is above 28-times, up from 17-times at the start of the bull market in October, 2022 -- that's the 91%-tile of its ten-year range: 

The Cash on the Sidelines Argument Is Laughable

From my Diary:

TheStreet Pro
My main argument about the irrelevance of the absolute total money market assets, seen in a graph:

 Source: Peter Boockvar

And from The Divine Ms M:

I recently noted that I am not alone in my ursine market outlook: We are in excellent company with Warren Buffett. In his third quarter letter to Greenlight Capital investors, David Einhorn writes:

Warren Buffett is, of course, the most successful investor of his generation, and maybe of all time. While Mr. Buffett routinely points out that it is impossible to time the market, we can’t help but observe that he has been one of the best market timers we have ever seen. When the market got too frothy in the late 1960s, he closed his fund. Towards the market bottom in the early 1970s, he re-emerged as a stock picker and then prior to the 1987 crash, he sold everything except a couple of illiquid holdings. Later, he sidestepped the various crises in corporate credit and was well-positioned to capitalize on the 2008 global financial crisis. One could argue that sitting out bear markets has been the underappreciated reason for his outstanding long-term returns. It is therefore noteworthy to observe that Mr. Buffett is again selling large swaths of his stock portfolio and building enormous cash reserves.

Our sense is that Mr. Buffett’s portfolio adjustments are not a prediction that the market will fall next week, next month, or even next quarter. Rather, these stock sales more likely express a long-term view that right now is not a great time to have a lot of equity exposure, and that the opportunity set is expected to be better at some point in the not-so-distant future. We will avoid calling this market a bubble, and simply observe that the dividend yield is low and the P/E ratio is elevated despite corporate earnings being cyclically high, if not top-of-cycle...

The market isn't just making all-time highs. It is, by many measures, the most expensive stock market that we have seen since the founding of Greenlight.

The fact that the equity risk premium is paper-thin and that Warren Buffett shares our cautious view are not the limiting factors to our negativity.

In addition to the above concerns (of interest rates, a low equity risk premium and inflated corporate profit expectations), I remain of the view that the market is ignoring political and geopolitical headwinds, the prospects for slugflation (sticky inflation and sluggish economic growth), excessive price earnings ratios (with traditional valuation multiples in the 90%to 95%-tile), fiscal and monetary policy risks, ebullient investor sentiment and the structural risks of a momentum driven market on the steroids of passive investing.

I am even skeptical with regard to the single most important bullish theme in place today - that corporate profit margins and profits will materially and quickly benefit from the growth in artificial intelligence (AI). One would think that with all the society-changing technological innovation since 2000, GDP growth and S&P 500 revenue growth would have been faster, not slower, than in the past.

Investors make the repeated mistake of basing valuations on excitement instead of arithmetic:

Interestingly, using the S&P 500 forward operating price-to-earnings, which embeds unprecedented expectations for record profit margins, the implied S&P 500 10-year average annual nominal total return is still about zero:

In support of our view that inflation will remain sticky and higher than consensus forecasts, since the September-inflation cycle lows of less than a month ago, the CRB Index has "rallied" by nearly 10% and a series of union labor agreements (accompanied by high yearly wage increases) have been announced. (From The Fed Whisperer, Nick Timiraos' "Economists Warn of New Inflation Hazards After the Election" in this morning's Wall Street Journal Economists Warn of New Inflation Hazards After Election - WSJ).

Positioning Is At A Bullish Extreme

"Mimicking the herd invites regression to the mean."- Charlie Munger

Equity exposure by U.S. households now stands at 48% which mirrors the peak of the tech bubble in late 1999:

As to ebullient investor sentiment, as noted previously in my Diary, Merrill Lynch's data shows their private client accounts are well above average in their allocation to equities, while cash positions are below average:

Optimism is not confined to the retail investor.

Goldman Sachs reports that traders have built up the largest long position in S&P futures in history:

To summarize, greed is increasingly conspicuous:

Fear and Greed Index - Investor Sentiment | CNN
And market participants seem to have lost sight of assessing upside reward v. downside risk and, even more importantly, are dismissing the fundamental concept of seeking a "margin of safety:"

 I Vehemently Disagree With Oy-the-Deficit Steve Eisman

Finally, I am of the view that fiscal profligacy (on both sides of the political aisle) represents a non-trivial risk to rising interest rates and lower equity valuations:

"The deficit is not the issue .... The "oy" the deficit people have been literally saying "the deficit" is a problem for forty years. Until it does everyone should be quiet."

- Steve "The Big Short" Eisman, Neuberger Berman Watch Steve Eisman Talks US Election, Fed Policy and Crypto - Bloomberg

It has become popular to ignore our country's expanding deficit and expanding debt load. Consider, however, that in fiscal 2024 the total U.S. government revenue will be nearly $5 trillion. The annual interest on the national debt totals over $1.1 trillion (up from only $270 billion four years ago) -- so 23% of all government revenue goes to pay the interest on our debt.

The average weighted coupon on the U.S.debt load is only 2.6% - but over $15 trillion comes due in the next two years. Given the Treasury Curve (with most maturities in excess of 4.0%), in the 2025 fiscal year (starting October 1, 2024) we are on pace for 30% of all government revenue going to interest payments:

I estimate that our country's budget deficit totaled more than 6% of GDP in the just ended 2024 fiscal year. With neither former President Donald Trump nor Vice President Kamala Harris prizing fiscal discipline, within five years our deficit could reach 8% of GDP. Writer Peggy Noonan described the situation well in a recent Wall Street Journal editorial, noting that the presidential campaign had reached its "Oprah phase," when TV star Oprah Winfrey would tell her studio audience, "You get a car and you get a car and you get a car." 

Though ignored by equity market participants, there are other multiple and emerging warnings. Specifically, a rise in less benevolent stuff not usually associated with higher stock prices: increased equity volatility, higher bond yields and an all-time high of $2,700/ounce in the price of gold (and an outsized +32% year to date gain). These trends may foreshadow problems that could lie ahead for stocks.In terms of portfolio structure, over the last few months I have been respectful of the market's strong price momentum and have maintained close a market neutral position with pairs trades comprising a large portion of my hedge fund's portfolio. However, should equities continue to advance this will not be a permanent situation! Indeed, I have moved back to net short on the leg higher in recent days to near all-time market highs.

That said, I am seeing the emergence of more long opportunities (in neglected areas) and short opportunities (in heavily owned areas) than at any time in the last several years. I am currently increasing our exposure in those unpopular stocks and sectors while increasing our short exposure in those overpriced and popular stocks and sectors.

Bottom Line

“Believe nothing you hear,
and only half that you see.”

- Edgar Allen Poe

Finally, some visuals of my view as I go back to the abstract expressionism expressed by my famous artist sister, Deborah Kass:

Enough Already (another from Deb):

The S&P Index is more overvalued (in absolute terms) today than at any time in nearly two decades. 

Upside:

-EVOK +141% (EVERSANA and co. announce statistically significant improvement in patient outcomes for GLP-1 users with diabetic gastroparesis using GIMOTI)

-AMIX +62% (Preliminary Results Demonstrate Autonomix’s Proprietary RF Ablation Technology’s Ability to Reduce Opioid Use in Ongoing Human Clinical Trial)

-GLUE +27% (announces Global License Agreement with Novartis to Advance T and B Cell-modulating VAV1-directed Molecular Glue Degraders)

-RVNC +27% (enters Amendment to the Exclusive Distribution Agreement with Teoxane to import, market, promote, sell and distribute Teoxane’s line of Resilient Hyaluronic Acid dermal fillers and future Hyaluronic Acid filler advancements by Teoxane in US)

-PRCT +16% (earnings, guidance)

-MIRA +11% (confirms Ketamir-2 Shows 60% Greater Efficacy Than FDA-Approved Gabapentin in Reversing Chemotherapy-Induced Neuropathic Pain)

-AZUL +10% (has negotiated an agreement with its existing bondholders for up to $500M)

-IRWD +10% (Once-Weekly Apraglutide Showed Consistent Treatment Effect Across Baseline Demographics and Disease Characteristics in Adults with Short Bowel Syndrome with Intestinal Failure (SBS-IF), According to New STARS Phase III Data from Ironwood at ACG 2024)

-RUN +9.5% (in talks to supply solar power to data centers)

-CADL +8.4% (showcases Innovative Cancer Therapy Candidates at 16th Annual International Oncolytic Virotherapy Conference (IOVC))

-LENZ +7.5% (reports topline data out of China for Phase 3 Presbyopia trial of LNZ100 primary endpoint was met with 74% improvement at 3-hours post-treatment)

-HE +3.8% (Kenneth Griffin reports 5.4% passive stake)

-ALK +3.7% (Melius Research Raised ALK to Buy from Hold, price target: $56)

-CORZ +3.5% (Jefferies Initiates CORZ with Buy, price target: $19)

-AAL +3.4% (Citi raises price target to $16 from $13.50)

-ON +3.2% (earnings, guidance)

-ACON +2.9% (files to offer 20M shares for selling stockholders)

-GLW +2.5% (expands collaboration with AT&T with multi-year purchase agreement to provide next-generation fiber, cable, and connectivity solutions)

-COHR +2.2% (commences review of strategic alternatives for lithium sulfur battery platform)

-GOOG +2.2% (reportedly developing AI that takes over a user's web browser to complete tasks like research, purchasing products, and booking flights)

-SPOT +2.1% (Wells Fargo raises price target to $470 from $420)

-MCD +1.8% (said to rule out quarter pounder patties as being e.coli source; Says the issue appears to be contained to a particular ingredient and geography)

Downside:

-PHG -16% (earnings, guidance)

-MNPR -14% (Astrazeneca reports 9.9% stake)

-HOPE -6.2% (guidance)

-ADT -5.5% (announces Launch of Secondary Public Offering of 56M Shares of Common Stock and Concurrent Share Repurchase Under Existing $350M Buyback)

-CX -4.5% (earnings, guidance)

-ADT -4.4% (announces Pricing of Secondary Public Offering of Common Stock and Concurrent Share Repurchase)

-CCO -4.3% (confirms termination of agreement to divest Spain business to subsidiary of JCDecaux following regulatory review)

-ARLP -3.2% (earnings, guidance)

-XOM -2.5% (weakness in crude following Israeli retaliation on Iran)

-CIEN -2.1% (Morgan Stanley Cuts CIEN to Equal Weight from Overweight, price target: $63)

-BA -1.9% (confirms launch of $18.9B offering of 90M shares stock at $5.00/shr and $5.0B in depositary shares)

-TSM -1.8% (Founder Chang: TSMC is facing "It's most severe challenge" due to free trade concerns for cutting-edge chips; Free trade of semiconductors, particularly the most advanced semiconductors, has died)

-REAL -1.7% (appoints new CEO; reports prelim Q3, provides FY guidance)

From Peter Boockvar:

Any geopolitical premium left?/Bond yields/Tech earnings/See what TriNet said on labor market

After this drop in crude oil prices after the weekend's Israeli attack on highly specific military installations in Iran I can't imagine it leaves much geopolitical risk left in the price. We are remaining long oil and gas stocks. Either way though and notwithstanding the disinflation that comes from lower oil prices, Treasury bond yields continue higher with the 2 yr now at 4.11%, the highest since early August and the 10 yr back at 4.26%, last seen in late July. I've mentioned that 4.30% is the key technical level for the 10 yr with it being the 50% retracement off last year's 5% high and the 3.60% low made within days of the Fed's aggressive rate cut.

Maybe this move up again today in yields is following the selling seen in JGB yields after the election results in Japan over the weekend where the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) didn't receive the needed seats to have a majority in the lower house and now needs to politic for some coalition partners. The yen is down but off its lows and sits at the weakest since late July vs the US dollar. That slightly weaker yen did help Japanese stocks withstand the political noise with a 1.8% rally. We remain bullish and long Japanese stocks.

Yen

10 yr JGB Yield

Ahead of the Q3 big cap earnings from Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Apple this week, what I found most distinctive in what these companies (less so Apple and more so the others) said and how investors responded to Q2 earnings was the focus on the huge amount of capital spending on AI (about $15b each per quarter, give or take) and the scrutiny now given as to when the payoff would come in terms of returns. Beneficially, the market mostly rewarded the receivers of that spend, particularly Nvidia. Meta's core business has been solid so it has weathered the AI spend microscope more so than Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon. This will be quite a news week.

The most interesting earnings call Friday came from a company you likely never heard of. It was TriNet, a provider of human resource and consultancy outsourcing services to mostly small and medium sized businesses. They have about 30,000 clients with 356,000 worksite employees. The stock was down 12% on Friday as we prepare for jobs data this week.

They also help procure healthcare plans for customers. "While there are a number of very positive things happening across our business, increases in healthcare costs adversely impacted our overall financial performance this quarter...the overall number of claims is largely consistent with our expectations. However, the average cost per claimant, driven by severity and overall inflation, is higher than what we assumed in our pricing."

Here is what they said on the broader macro for small and medium sized clients of theirs. "Slower economic growth, higher interest rates, and generally cautious outlook resulted in a third quarter of no net hiring amongst our customer base. While the headline jobs reports have been generally positive from the BLS over the last year, our experience has differed materially. Growth in several sectors, including government, construction, and healthcare are fueling aggregate headlines, while our core verticals of technology, life sciences, financial services, and other professional services have been muted." I bolded for emphasis.

From Capital One Financial whose stock rose 5% Friday after 5 straight days of losses:

"Our credit outlook has improved slightly as our confidence in the stability of underlying credit trends has grown, driving a modest release in allowance." Net charge-offs fell in the quarter but grew for 30+ delinquency rates.

This is what was said about the consumer by the CEO, "I think the US consumer remains a source of relative strength in the overall economy. The labor market remains strong. You know we saw signs of softening in the first half of 2024 and the unemployment rate ticked up a bit, but the most recent data points on unemployment and job creation have actually shown renewed strength. Incomes are growing in real terms and last month, we saw a significant upward revision of the savings rate. Consumer debt servicing burdens are stable relative to pre-pandemic levels and consumers have higher average bank account balances than before the pandemic."

Here was the caveat, "Now we see some pockets of pressure related to sort of the cumulative effects of inflation and elevated interest rates. And we are almost certainly still seeing a thing that we've been calling out for years, even really before it happened saying we think it inevitably will happen but we won't fully be able to measure that. We won't be able to measure that along the way, but that is delayed charge-offs from the pandemic period. We should remember that millions of consumers who would have charged off under normal circumstances in 2020, 2021 and 2022 avoided defaulting, thanks to unprecedented stimulus and forbearance. And these consumers were on the edge, and they got a lifeline. But for some of them, their underlying vulnerability remains. So I believe that what we're seeing today is catching up from that period of historically low charge-offs."

The bottom line, "I'd say consumers on the whole are in good shape compared to most historical benchmarks, but I do think there's some pockets of pressure that will persist until we fully work through this cycle essentially of inflation and elevated interest rates and of course for an unmeasurable period of time there will be I think this delayed charge-off effect from the pandemic."

From AutoNation, whose stock fell 4.5% on Friday:

Sales fell 4% y/o/y as they expected "as our used vehicle unit sales declined and selling prices on both new and used vehicles moderated since last year." Weather also closed some stores and the CDK software problem flowed through too.

They remain positive on its business, "in terms of the retail side, you've seen on the retail side, slow, progressive increases (in terms of industry sales), notwithstanding the fact of sustained high MSRPs and significant increase in interest rates. That's been partially offset by manufacturing incentives, I think going from about $1,000 to $2,500, $2,800. But I think you're going to see the return to $3,000 plus incentives in Q4. And you haven't seen that since Q1 2021 from memory. And I think that will progressively also add to the demand equation." Remember that overall new car sales are still trending below the 2019 pace.

From Decker's whose stock jumped 11% on Friday as their HOKA brand continues to be strong:

HOKA sales rose 32% y/o/y and UGG higher by 13% in the first half of their fiscal year.

"HOKA continued to experience solid growth around the globe" and "UGG again demonstrated broad based growth across regions and channels."

They referred to the overall macro as a "dynamic consumer environment."

From Colgate-Palmolive:

"Overall, the good news is we've been able to weather some of the softness in North America with really strong broad based growth across the business...It was a strong performance for Hills in the quarter, strong volume, which was really encouraging given the impact of lower private label." That is their pet food business for those that don't know.

From Carter's, whose stock fell 13% on Friday, and the maker of infant and children's clothing:

"Our US wholesale sales in the third quarter were at the upper end of our forecast and our international sales were at the lower end of our forecast, reflecting a slow start to cooler weather apparel sales in Canada." Their retail US comps fell 5% in August and September though. October so far is a bit better, down less than 5%.

"Shopping for holiday related apparel trended later than last year, we believe consumers are shopping closer to need and buying what's needed and only when needed. In recent weeks, thankfully, as weather turned cooler in more parts of the country, the trend in our holiday related apparel has improved."

Finally, thank you Phil Lesh for helping to “fill the air” with songs “For this is all a dream we dreamed one afternoon long ago.”

As of 8:14 a.m. and their mini-graphs:

As of 8:18 a.m.:

Break in.

As I expected Boeing  (BA)  is launching a large equity offering.

I am a buyer of the offering.

This table is a valuable resource for momentum-based short-term traders:

From JPMorgan:

US: Futs are stronger following the SPX’s first weekly loss in 7 weeks; both Tech and Small-Caps are outperforming with the yield curve bear steepening and USD flat. Pre-mkt, Mag7 and Semis are higher. Oil/Energy cmdtys are down significantly as the latest Israeli attack avoided energy prod’n facilities in Iran; WTI -6% pre-mkt. Base metals have a bid but the balance of the cmdty complex is lower. Today’s macro calendar is light with only Dallas Fed calendar but keep any eye on Japanese politics and any potential read-through for the US yield curve and Credit demand.

and...

EQUITY AND MACRO NARRATIVE: I have returned from a multi-week client marketing trip. In this note, after recapping the last week I will update the tactical setup, including a monetization menu, and then will share details & themes from those client conversations from the trip. For those short on time, the tactical view remains bullish driven by above-trend GDP growth, positive earnings growth, and a Fed tailwind. We like expressing this view using the barbell trade of some Tech and some Cyclicals/Value.

Last week, the SPX fell 1%, snapping a 6-week run where the index added 8.2%, including a new ATH of 5,865. On the week, NDX added 14bps while RTY lost 3%. Within Tech, the major drivers were TSLA, NVDA, MSFT, and GOOG with TSLA the standout following its earnings release. TSMC/Hynix earnings point to a NVDA beat; NVDA set a new ATH on Oct 21 and now sits 1.5% below that level. The 10Y yield increased 15.7bps as the bond market continues to reset Fed expectations as growth data continues to impress; last week it was Flash PMIs that contributed with Mfg, Srvcs, and Composite beating consensus forecasts; both Durable/Cap Goods and Beige Book pointed to a ‘Soft Landing’. As bond yields have reset higher, the USD added 74bps last week and the DXY is now +3.8% MTD. If these DXY gains hold, it would be the strongest monthly appreciation since April 2022.

“Believe nothing you hear, and only half that you see.”

- Edgar Allen Poe

Bonus — Here are some great links:

AlphaTrends

The U.S. Is Not the Only Market in the World 

S&P Diverges Dramatically From Junk Bonds

Not All Crypto Is Created Equal 

Trick or Treat

Selling some Index longs:

*  (SPY)  at $582.69

*  (QQQ)  at $499.24

* Crude oil is dumped over the weekend...

 With the attacks by Israel "contained," crude is -$3.45.

And, in premarket trading, energy-related equities, a favorite of "value investors," have crumbled.