As of 4:26 p.m.:

Closing Breadth

S&P 500 Sectors

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

Advance Decline Intraday Chart

Subscriber ireadstock asked me a question about my weightings and size designations.

Here's a reposting of a previous column from October 2023:

Reviewing My Weightings Strategies

I have been asked by several subscribers about my weightings strategies.

Here is a repost that explains my methodology:

Apr 25, 2023 ' 07:39 AM EDT DOUG KASS

Risk Management: On Shorting and Sizing (Part Deux)

Over the last two weeks I have gotten a number of questions about my weightings.

Here is an important repost that answers most of the related questions:

Feb 13, 2023 ' 06:10 AM EST DOUG KASS

Risk Management: On Shorting and Sizing -- With Feelings!

A reminder, that going forward, I will be disclosing size positions:

Feb 09, 2023 ' 01:30 PM EST DOUG KASS

Risk Management: On Shorting and Sizing

* Going forward I am going to reintroduce my weightings of individual stocks and indexes in order for subscribers to better gauge my confidence levels

* But remember, everyone has a different risk profile and appetite. I am laser focused on risk control and conservative in portfolio construction

As I mentioned yesterday, in two columns -- Know Your Sweet Spot and Check This Out, patience and sizing -- get little commentary but are essential parts of managing money and in controlling risk.

As well, most should not even sell short.

Given the conversation about Tesla (TSLA) in our Comments Section today I wanted to repeat an important post I originally delivered over two years ago on shorting and sizing.

Dec 09, 2020 ' 09:30 AM EST DOUG KASS

On Shorting Speculative Stocks

* It's not fun, it's not easy, and most should not bother!

* But if you immerse yourself in the more dangerous waters of short selling, consider some of my techniques

I have long written that most people should not short stocks:

* Stocks typically move higher over time. Depending on the time frame analyzed, the major Indices have historically risen by about seven to eight percent annually over the last six to seven decades. The gravitational pull of stocks higher is a formidable headwind to short selling.

* When longs go against an investor, their portfolio weighting moves lower. However, when shorts go against an investor, their portfolio weighting moves higher.

* Many shorts are crowded (in short interest terms) - so short squeezes are commonplace in some of the more popular short names. This means you will not likely short a top!

* Tops in individual stocks tend to be a process - while bottoms in individual stocks tend to be events.

* Above all, reward vs. risk is asymmetric between longs and shorts. Longs can theoretically rise by an infinite percentage, or amount, but shorts can only decline by 100% - in a bankruptcy.

My long weightings (for individual stocks or for Index positions), on average, are typically larger than my short weighting (for individual stocks or for Index positions) for the reasons listed above:

For Individual Stock Longs (Revised)

Very Small: Under 0.75%

Small: Between 0.75% and 1.5%

Medium: Between 1.5% and 3%

Large: Between 3% and 5%

Very Large: Over 5%

For Individual Stock Shorts (Revised)

Very Small: Under 0.25%

Small: Between 0.25% and 1.0%

Medium: Between 1.0% and 2.0%

Large: Between 2.0% and 2.5%

For Index Longs

Small: Under 5%

Medium: Between 5% and 15%

Large: More than 15%

For Index Shorts

Small: Under 5%

Medium: Between 5% and 10%

Large: More than 10%

I have been short them all - the "shiny speculative objects" and gewgaws of the time like Iomega, Snapple, LA Gear, Home Shopping, AOL/Time Warner, etc.

And, though I have the scars on my back to show for some of these shorts, in the main I have profited mightily by adopting a methodology towards speculative, high octane shorts.

My approach is four-fold:

1. Many short valuation or an extended stock chart - that can be a big mistake. For me, all shorts, especially of a high beta kind, should be based on strong fundamental analysis. You better be sure that you are correct in this assessment and in your individual equity analysis!
2. Start small and give shorts a "wider berth" - I typically and initially commit well under one percent of my portfolio to an individual name.
3. I trade more actively around a short position than a long position. The former - speculative grade shorts - are typically more volatile than my longs.
4. In emotional terms, stay dispassionate. The short of a speculative name should not evoke more emotion than the rest of your portfolio.

The last point is an important one. I am currently short Tesla (TSLA) . Three months ago I shorted the stock and made well over $100/share in only a few days. In this rendition, the shares have moved dramatically higher, though less than $100/share. The previous large short term short gain has been forgotten by most - just look at the reaction the move has made on my Twitter thread!

I have approached the $100/share move higher as an opportunity to, dispassionately, short more - ignoring the financial media's hyperbolic coverage, sticking with my analysis of "intrinsic value" for Tesla and I have not treated the position differently in emotional terms than any other long or short position in my portfolio. Most can not be as "level headed" in shorts compared to longs - stated simply they often panic at the wrong time.

Bottom Line

Most should avoid short selling.

But if you elect to travel in these more dangerous investment waters, consider smaller weightings than long positions, and give a short a "wider berth" when adding and stay unemotional.

Position: None.

By Doug Kass Oct 11, 2023 1:43 PM EDT

I am entirely out of my Index positions now. 

With S&P cash -51 handles I am taking in some more Index short calls.

Wolf Street howls about Canada's housing markets. 

Good  (TLT)  cover on half of my short yesterday:

I Covered Some TLT

I covered some of my (TLT) short at $93.22 — taking a profit and moving from medium-sized to small-sized.

I plan to reshort TLT on any strength.

By Doug Kass Oct 14, 2024 1:34 PM EDT

But I am gearing up to re-short on further strength, although I'm giving the upturn a wider berth.

Meaningful reversal to the downside — perhaps the largest intraday drop from top to bottom (at 2:17 p.m.) since my Bar Mitzvah.

At this writing (2:26 p.m.) S&P cash is -35 handles.

From very early:

Moving Back Into Overbought

The S&P Short Range Oscillator has risen from 0.58% to 1.03% over night — so it's more overbought.

By Doug Kass Oct 15, 2024 5:58 AM EDT

Today's "things":

* Daytraded Goldman Sachs  (GS)  — shorted at $541 in premarket gap higher, covered at $523.

* Profitably covered my Nvidia  (NVDA)  short on the whoosh lower.

* Added across the board to my homebuilder shorts.

* I covered some of my short Index calls with S&P cash -24 handles.

* Accumulating starter position in Boeing  (BA)  at around $150.

* Super sized  (MSOS)  at $6.91. (Added very small cannabis long in  (AYRWF) , a play on Amendment 3 passage in Florida, very speculative (given its weak balance sheet))

Repeating for emphasis:

An Observation and a Request

I get a lot of things wrong and I am always in doubt.

But I make most of my investment decisions based on primary fundamental analysis.

It is time consumptive.

I don't make up narratives.

And when I am wrong I take ownership.

If I ever express myself with too much confidence please call me out on it.

By Doug Kass Oct 15, 2024 11:50 AM EDT

Goldman Sachs  (GS)  on the "cash on the sidelines" debate:

* LVMH reports weak organic growth...

This is interesting — from CNBC's David Faber:

* And its ramifications...

I am super sizing  (MSOS)  at $6.91.

Bill L

Stock news is all gloom and doom lately - but what would it cost to replace Boeing - and other than Airbus, how many other companies in the world can build commercial/military aircraft at scale. Another factoid, Boeing has bought many independent MRO (maintenance, repair, and operations) companies who were taking big margin from Boeing in the after-market. If they can get their act together under the new CEO... back to the moon!

This brief Bloomberg column is not helping the equity market:

EU Readies US Trade Targets If Election Brings Trump Tariffs

• The bloc wants to avoid a new trade conflict with the US

• But it will be ready to respond if Trump acts on threats

By Alberto Nardelli and Samy Adghirni

(Bloomberg) -- The European Union has prepared a list of American goods it could target with tariffs if former President Donald Trump wins the US election and follows through on his threat to hit the bloc with punitive trade measures.

New levies against US firms aren’t a base case for the EU and will only be used to retaliate against a move by the White House, according to people familiar with the bloc’s thinking.

The EU’s favored approach would be to seek an agreement with Trump on some areas of common interest such as China, said one of the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

Trump caught the EU by surprise in 2018 when he hit European steel and aluminum exports with tariffs. In that instance, the bloc targeted politically sensitive companies with retaliatory duties, including Harley-Davidson Inc. motorcycles and Levi Strauss & Co. jeans. Since Trump’s win in 2016, the EU has adopted several trade defense tools, including an instrument to respond to economic coercion.  

* On "cash on the sidelines"...

I get a lot of things wrong and I am always in doubt.

But I make most of my investment decisions based on primary fundamental analysis.

It is time consumptive.

I don't make up narratives.

And when I am wrong I take ownership.

If I ever express myself with too much confidence please call me out on it.

As of 10:30 a.m.:

Breadth

S&P 500 Sector ETFs

% Movers

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

The proximate cause of the market's decline was that  (ASML)  pre-released weak order numbers a few minutes ago.

The stock, which is -$115, was touted confidentally on FIN TV yesterday. 

I covered some of my short Index calls with S&P -24 handles (Nasdaq much weaker!).

I covered my Nvidia  (NVDA)  trading short rental in the whoosh.

From Peter Boockvar:

Quick Empire mfr'g rundown

After surprising to the upside in September, the October NY manufacturing index is back to disappointing. The -11.9 print is down from +11.5 last month and below the estimate of +3.9. New orders were -7.9 in August, +9.4 in September and -10.2 in October. Backlogs too fell back below zero as did inventories. The inflation stats lifted with prices paid up by 6 pts m/o/m to 29, a 6 month high. Prices received rose by 3.4 pts to a 5 month high at 10.8. The positive was the positive 4.1 pt print for the employment component which follows 11 months in a row under zero. The workweek was positive for a 2nd month after a string of negative levels.

With regards to the 6 month outlook, business expectations did lift by 8 pts to 38.7 and that is the most optimistic since October 2021 (in terms of direction, not degree, as always with diffusion indices). Capital spending plans got back what it lost last month and expectations rose for future hiring.

Bottom line, at least with this initial October survey, the manufacturing recession continues on but as seen in the outlook, expectations are for things to improve from here, likely helped by the belief that rate cuts will save the day and create some end market demand for stuff and an inventory rebuild as a result.

NY Mfr’g

New Orders

Prices Paid

Employment

6 Month Business Outlook

* Energy and Chinese stocks are illustrative of this...

* And these two sectors may provide some broader guidance into the future!

Energy: As mentioned earlier, energy stocks led the market higher in September into early October on the heels of the Middle East tension — crude oil prices ramped over $10/barrel during that interim interval. We sold into that strength and in retrospect it was the right strategy.

Chinese Equities: About two weeks ago David Tepper went all in to Chinese stocks — generating a huge move in the region's stock prices. Here was Tepper's interview featured on CNBC's "SquawkBox." After an initial spike (which we shorted), Chinese stocks have retreated (e.g., a week ago  (BABA)  traded at $118, it's now $102,  (PPD)  from $155 to $130 in the same timeframe).

Which brings me to Bank of America's analysis of the current state of the growing and maybe even bubbly level of investor sentiment, which, according to Bloomberg, has experienced the largest boost in investor confidence since June 2020 (as reflected in a marked drawdown in customers' cash reserves).

I highlighted (with an assist from Rich Bernstein) the increased investor optimism about 10 days ago:

BS on Sidelines Cash Commentary

Great feedback from the lynx-eyed and my old friend Rich Bernstein in response to yesterday's "I Call BS on The Cash On The Sidelines Argument":

Dougie - To your point, Merrill data shows their private client accounts are well above average allocation to equities and below average cash allocation.

Fear and Greed: And of course there is this, highlighted yesterday.

I have covered this morning's short of  (GS)  (at $541) just now at $523.

From the morning:

Update on My Goldman Trading

I have treated Goldman Sachs (GS) as a trading sardine — having made a number of successful positioning trades on the short side over the last year. (Go to archives, rather than me recounting them!)

I came into this morning's EPS report with a very small (tagends) position short Goldman — and I added to the short (still VS) at $541 in premarket trading.

By Doug KassOct 15, 2024 8:10 AM EDT

From Peter Boockvar:

At least for now, still looking like a rate tweaking cycle and other notable stuff

The big story from late yesterday is certainly the drop in oil prices on the Washington Post report of Israel sparing Iran's oil and nuclear installations in their still inevitable retaliation. If the story is true, this will be a good test of what geopolitical premium, if really much at all, was in the price. We still remain bullish and long oil and gas stocks.

I've argued over the past few months that what we were going to see from the Fed would be, for now and until the data changes, a rate tweaking cycle rather than a typical rate cutting cycle where zero is the only bottom they know in rates. Well, it started with voting member Mary Daly's comments a few weeks ago when she held out the possibility they would only cut once more this year. Voting member Bostic said something similar last week. And Governor Waller did yesterday. I'm not including here those that don't vote at the remaining two meetings.

After going through his view on the economy and inflation in his speech, which has surprised him to the upside with the data seen over the past few weeks, and theoretical ways of setting interest rates, he laid out three scenarios from here with respect to policy.

1)"one where the overall strong economic developments that I have described today continue, with inflation nearing the FOMC's target and the unemployment rate moving up only slightly. This scenario implies to me that we can proceed with moving policy toward a neutral stance at a deliberate path."

2)"Another scenario, less likely in light of recent data, is that inflation falls materially below 2% for some time, and/or the labor market significantly deteriorates. The message here is that demand is falling, the FOMC may suddenly be behind the curve, and that message would argue for moving to neutral more quickly by front loading cuts to the policy rate." Meanwhile, still no one knows what the neutral rate is, I say.

3)The 3rd possibility is that inflation picks up again and "as long as the labor market isn't deteriorating, we can pause rate cuts until progress resumes and uncertainty diminishes."

What's his bottom line with what he sees now? "I view the totality of the data as saying monetary policy should proceed with more caution on the pace of rate cuts than was needed at the September meeting." But, "Whatever happens in the near term, my baseline still calls for reducing the policy rate gradually over the next year." He doesn't really disagree right now with the 3.4% fed funds rate median dot plot by the end of 2025" and he still believes that policy is restrictive without giving much color as to why.

While we'll get the Investors Intelligence report tomorrow followed by the AAII survey on Thursday, just be aware that the CNN Fear/Greed index which measures actual market activity as opposed to being a sentiment survey, entered again the 'Extreme Greed' category. It closed right on the line at 75 between 'Greed' and Extreme Greed' but ticked 78 yesterday which was the highest since March. https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

Highlighting a still mixed picture with the consumer, particularly the lower end, Coty the beauty and cosmetics company said after the close, "The global beauty market has maintained solid but slightly lower global growth...While beauty growth remains resilient in many parts of the world, the US market growth has slowed in the 2nd half of Q1. For Coty, very tight order and inventory management by retailers has resulted in Coty's sell-in tracking well below sell-out in a number of markets, including in the US, as well as in Australia, China and Travel Retail Asia." Elsewhere, "Coty's revenue growth across other key markets has remained robust, growing by a mid single digit to double digit percentage."

Also on the consumer from Walgreens and specifically on their retail business, comps fell 1.7% y/o/y "reflecting a challenging retail environment and continued channel shift. Retail margin was positively impacted by category mix and higher owned brand penetration, partly offset by elevated shrink levels."

Yesterday the Cass Freight September index came out and showed a 3.2% m/o/m drop in shipments and down 5.2% y/o/y reflecting the ongoing manufacturing recession. That said, I just don't know how the lead in to the dockworkers strike on October 1 clogged up shipments, or front loaded them. We'll see the first October industrial figure at 8:30am est with the NY manufacturing survey.

The investor mood in Germany is still pretty down but got a bit better in its outlook according to the ZEW. Expectations rose to 13.1 from 3.6 and above the estimate of 10. Helping is the expectation that inflation will continue to moderate and the ECB will come to the rescue with further rate cuts. Expectations too of rising export growth helped as well, particularly with the recent China policy moves. The Current Situation though remains deeply pessimistic at -86.9 vs -84.5 in the month before and which is near the Covid bottom low. Nothing market moving here though as the IFO survey is more relevant.

ZEW Current Situation

ZEW Expectations

Out of the UK was better than expected jobs data in the 3 months thru August. Employment rose by 373k vs the estimate of 240k and that is the biggest number I've ever seen and the unemployment rate ticked down by one tenth to 4%. Wage growth continued on a solid path, up 4.9% ex bonuses and as expected vs 5.1% in the month prior y/o/y. The comps do get tougher. The fly though was the September jobless claims figure which rose by 28k but August was revised down sharply to almost flat from up 23.7k. The pound is up in response but bond yields are lower as are stocks there. I see a rate tweaking cycle here too from the BoE.

UK Job Growth for 3 months ended August

Upside:

-WOLF +28% (announces $750M in proposed funding from U.S. CHIPS Act and additional $750M from investment group led by Apollo to support the expansion of silicon carbide manufacturing in the US)

-SIDU +17% (receives FCC Approval for Remote Sensing Satellite Micro Constellation License)

-YOSH+17% (announces strategic partnership with Chengdu Octaday Entertainment Group for Sichuan Province, China)

-INDP +13% (initiates Unrestricted Enrollment of patients in Phase 1 trial of Decoy20 weekly dosing based on encouraging Safety Data)

-PRE +13% (announces Tencent’s $30M investment in Insighta)

-ANVS +11% (FDA Clears Annovis to Launch Pivotal Phase 3 Alzheimer’s Studies, Paving Way to NDAs)

-LTH +9.1% (Q3 guidance)

-SCHW +9.1% (earnings)

-LUCD +5.9% (receives Notice of Allowance for Key Patent Underlying EsoGuard Esophageal DNA Test)

-WBA +4.9% (earnings, guidance)

-GOCO +4.0% (launches AI and proprietary technology tools dedicated to increasing efficiency and improving consumer experience)

-FL +3.1% (announces multi-year partnership with the Chicago Bulls)

-GS +2.9% (earnings)

-SNX +2.9% (subsidiary Hyve Solutions announces new Orion Product Line featuring NVIDIA HGX Platform at 2024 OCP Global Summit)

-JAZZ +2.7% (announces Statistically Significant Overall Survival and Progression-Free Survival Results for Zepzelca (lurbinectedin) and Atezolizumab Combination in First-Line Maintenance Therapy for Extensive-Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer)

-MBWM +2.5% (earnings)

-BAC +2.5% (earnings, guidance)

-OCUL +2.3% (announces Accelerated Timelines for SOL-1 Registrational Trial of AXPAXLI in Wet AMD)

Downside:

-CDNA -9.1% (reports prelim Q3)

-LEXX -8.2% (files to sell 1.63M shares at $3.06/shr in $5.0M registered direct offering)

-ZENA -5.8% (weakness following announcement of first US trial of ZenaDrone IQ Nano Drone for inventory management)

-COTY -5.1% (earnings, guidance)

-RIG -3.8% (Benchmark Company Cuts RIG to Hold from Buy)

-UNH -3.4% (earnings, guidance)

Charts from 8:09 a.m.:

Now that Boeing  (BA)  has filed an expected secondary share offering -- it might be time to FINALLY average into a long investment position.

I am doing this now (paying $150.57)... but on a scale lower as I suspect the secondary will be priced $145-$150.

From Jeffries:

Filing Shelf for Up to $25BB of Equity or Debt; Adding 2nd $10BB Revolver

BA filed a registration statement for the potential issuance of up to $25BB in securities through unsecured debt, preferred stock and/or common equity. Any issuance will be accompanied by a supplemental to the prospectus defining terms & amounts, w/ flexibility around the means & timing of any raise after the Q3 preannounce. BA also entered into a new $10BB supplemental credit agreement at SOFR + 1.375-2.00% and covenant of <60% of debt as % of total capital.

From Shadd Dales' "The Dales Report":

Ladies and gentlemen, hold onto your butts —Vice President Kamala Harris has just rolled out a bold pledge to federally legalize recreational marijuana if she clinches the presidency. As part of her newly unveiled "Opportunity Agenda" targeting Black men, this move aims to resonate with a key demographic that has historically leaned Democratic but shows signs of waning enthusiasm.

Currently, recreational cannabis is legal in 24 states but remains a Schedule I substance at the federal level—a legal limbo that's caused more overlap than a Venn diagram convention. This disconnect has led to a tangled web of conflicting laws, creating headaches for businesses and investors alike. Federal legalization could be the green light that propels the cannabis industry into the financial mainstream.

Harris's announcement isn't just about embracing the mellow vibes of legalization; it's a strategic play to address systemic inequalities. Black Americans have disproportionately borne the brunt of marijuana-related arrests and convictions, accounting for 29% of drug arrests despite making up only 13.7% of the population. By pushing for legalization, Harris aims to rectify these injustices and open doors for Black entrepreneurs in an industry where they've been historically underrepresented.

This isn't Harris's first foray into the cannabis conversation. Back in 2019, she co-sponsored the Marijuana Opportunity Reinvestment and Expungement (MORE) Act, aiming to decriminalize marijuana at the federal level and expunge certain convictions. At the time, she quipped on a radio show, "Half my family’s from Jamaica. Are you kidding me?" when asked if she ever smoked pot, highlighting her personal connection to the issue.

From an industry standpoint, federal legalization under a Harris administration could be a game-changer. It would likely unleash a flood of capital into the sector, with institutional investors finally able to partake without legal trepidation. Companies could uplist to major stock exchanges, enhancing liquidity and valuation—talk about a contact high.

However, let's not get ahead of ourselves. While Harris enjoys significant support among Black voters, recent polls show her trailing historic numbers, with only 78% backing her compared to the 92% who supported President Biden in 2020. And let's not forget her Republican opponent, former President Donald Trump, who has surprisingly come out in favor of legalizing recreational weed in Florida, perhaps hoping to blaze his own trail with voters.

In the end, Harris's cannabis gambit is a high-risk, high-reward strategy—to which we have seen and heard this rhetoric before. It aims to energize a crucial voter base and could potentially reshape the industry landscape

Chart from 8:21 a.m. ET:

* Be still my heart...

11:30 a.m.: Fed Bank of San Francisco President Daly (Voter) speaks and participates in moderated conversation at event hosted by the New York University Stern School of Business

1:05 p.m.: Fed Board Governor Kugler (Voter) participates in moderated discussion before the "Exploring Careers in Economics - Fall 2024" webcast conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Board

7:00 p.m.: Fed Bank of Atlanta President Bostic (Voter) participates in moderated conversation on the economic outlook

From my pal Pete:

I have treated Goldman Sachs  (GS)  as a trading sardine — having made a number of successful positioning trades on the short side over the last year. (Go to archives, rather than me recounting them!)

I came into this morning's EPS report with a very small (tagends) position short Goldman — and I added to the short (still VS) at $541 in premarket trading.

Bill G

Doug, wouldn’t one expect the big drop in crude to be bullish for bonds? Great call on crude prices by the way.

Dougie Kass

it could be seen the other way - as a stimulant to domestic economic growth, billy.

This table is a valuable resource for momentum-based short-term traders:

From JPMorgan:

US: Futs are mixed with MegaCap Tech showing modest moves. NVDA and TSLA underperform amid headlines around US weighing capping exports of AI chips. Bond yields are lower and USD is weaker; 2-, 5-, 10-yr yields are 0.36bp, 1.75bp, 3.53bp lower. Iran tells US that it will not strike nuclear or oil targets (Washington Post). Oil has fallen -4.8% from yesterday close. WSJ article indicating that the motivation behind the recent policies is not “massively stimulate demand but to fend off a brewing financial crisis.” HSI and CSI closed -2.6% and -3.7% lower today. Aluminum and Copper are both more than -1% lower this morning. 

and...

EQUITY AND MACRO NARRATIVE: Yesterday, stocks closed at another all-time high ahead of a busy earnings week. Macro catalysts were relatively light given the holiday. We saw some squeezy price actions as High Short Interest and Potential squeeze rallied 1.7% and 1.3%, respectively. Semis outperformed (SOXX +1.8%) as QCOM and NVDA gained 4.7% and 2.4%, respectively. Two major development after market-close are: (i) Iran tells US that it will not strike nuclear or oil targets (Washington Post); (ii) WSJ article indicating that the motivation behind the recent policies is not “massively stimulate demand but to fend off a brewing financial crisis.” HSI and CSI closed -2.6% and -3.7% lower today. Oil fell -4.8%; Aluminum and Copper both are more than -1% lower this morning.

"You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows."

- Bob Dylan

Bonus — Here are some great links:

A View From the Floor

Plenty of Meat on the Bone

Trading the VWAP

Nvidia Leads Again

* And I continue to...

From last week:

So Much Hype, So Little Upside, So Much Downside

* Tesla's presentation last night was long on promises but short on details.

* Delivery of a low-cost prototype was vague, so were some other promises.

* Tesla's shares are trading down by more than -$13/share to $225 in the premarket.

* We put on a Tesla trading short rental two days ago, we remain short.

"I tend to be optimistic about time frames."

- Elon Musk

Tesla (TSLA) stock drops in premarket after Cybercab robotaxi reveal (cnbc.com)

From Musk/Tesla last night:

and

and

and

and

From two days ago:

More Tesla Shorting

I just added to my small Tesla (TSLA) short at $245.50.

Position: Short TSLA S

By Doug Kass Oct 9, 2024 10:39 AM EDT

I covered half of my Tesla (TSLA) short at around $232-33 yesterday.

Position: Short TSLA (VS)

By Doug Kass Oct 11, 2024 6:30 AM EDT

From my friend Jesse Redmond:

The S&P Short Range Oscillator has risen from 0.58% to 1.03% over night — so it's more overbought.

* In early October we sold almost all of our energy-related holdings on the news of rising escalation in the Middle East that led to higher crude oil prices.

This morning the price of crude oil fell by -$3.50 (after yesterday's loss) to $70.48 (-4.5%) after Israel's Netanyahu has agreed to limit a strike on Iran to that country's military targets (rather than its oil or nuclear infrastructure).

I wrote this in early October after liquidating 95% of my energy positions (in  (OXY) ,  (SLB) ,  (OIH) ,  (XOM)  and  (CVX) ) following the big move higher in the price of oil following an escalation in the Middle East conflict.

Oil Vey!

Crude is +$1.91 but energy stocks are lower.

This is a warning signpost and makes me feel more comfortable about my recent energy sales.

By Doug Kass Oct 3, 2024 9:37 AM EDT

As noted previously in my Diary, I currently have only tag end positions (VS) in XOM, CVX and SLB.