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DAILY DIARY

Doug Kass

After-Hours Movers

As of 4:21 p.m.:

10-14-24-AHM-Screenshot 2024-10-14 at 4.20.28 PM
Position: None

Monday's Closing Market Internals

Closing Breadth

Screenshot 2024-10-14 at 4.11.55 PM (1)

S&P 500 Sector ETFs

Screenshot 2024-10-14 at 4.12.47 PM

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

Screenshot 2024-10-14 at 4.12.11 PM

Advance-Decline Chart of Past Two Days

Screenshot 2024-10-14 at 4.15.11 PM
Position: None

Things I Did Today

Up all day.

Today's "things":

* With S&P cash +36 handles I added to my Index calls short.

* Added to  (GTBIF)  long at around $10.30 and TSNDF at $1.18..

* Sold  (NVDA)  short (trading rental) at $138.25.

* Covered more of my  (TSLA)  short at around $219.

* Covered a portion of my  (TLT)  short at $93.22.

Position: Long GTBIF (S), TSNDF (S), SPY common (S) and QQQ common (S); Short TLT (S), TSLA (VS), NVDA (S), SPY calls (M), QQQ calls (M)

Extreme Greed?

There is now a near universal view that the market's strength will continue.

Here are some of the sort of comments I heard today (source: Fin TV) that I have written down:

"Traditional valuation metrics are irrelevant now."

"The momentum is too strong to fight."

"Don't fight the tape."

"Don't fight the Fed."

"Wait until the cash on the sidelines comes into the stock market."

"Investor sentiment and valuation have not gotten overheated."

"The strength in financials spells further market gains."

"Election fears are misplaced. If the Democrats win we will see 'modern monetary theory.' If the Republicans win we will see lower corporate tax rates."

"We have passed the period of seasonal weakness we now look for seasonal strength."

Here is CNN's Fear and Greed Index — indicating Extreme Greed! Fear and Greed Index - Investor Sentiment | CNN

Jensen Huang is smiling (and hyperbolic — "Demand for AI chips are insane" Nvidia CEO: Demand for Blackwell AI chip is 'insane' (cnbc.com).

On the other hand, the equity risk premium is back down (near the year's lows), Buffett isn't buying equities and the Buffett Indicator (Total Stock Market Capitalization Divided by GDP) is at an all-time high.

Position: None

Burritos Over Lattes

My  (CMG)  long/ (SBUX)  short is the aces today...

Position: Long CMG (S); Short SBUX (S)

Adding to Another Cannabis Name

I'm adding to TSNDF under $1.20.

Position: Long TSNDF

I Covered Some TLT

I covered some of my  (TLT)  short at $93.22 — taking a profit and moving from medium-sized to small-sized.

I plan to reshort TLT on any strength.

Position: Short TLT (S)

Subscriber Comment of the Day

nsethi9999

Doug, that stat on UMich 5-10yr infl exp's is not correct. It actually fell a tenth to 3.0%.

Here's a link to the chart.

chpx5r.pdf (umich.edu)

Also if anyone is interested here's a link to my X post (I think that will work, not sure how you copy a link to a post directly).

(6) umich (from:neilksethi) - Search / X

Inflation expectations edged higher as to 1-yr expectations which incr’d for the 1st mth in 5 to 2.9% from 2.7% in Sep, which was the least since Dec ‘20 and still though “within the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic.” Long-run infl exp’s though fell a tenth to 3.0%, now at that level for 6 of the last 7 mths “in the middle of the narrow 2.9-3.1% range of 34 of the last 38 months”, as noted in the July report “remaining remarkably stable over the last three years.” They are though “modestly elevated relative to the range of readings seen in the two years pre-pandemic.”

Position: None

This Week in Charts

From Charlie! 

The Week in Charts (10/14/24) - Charlie Bilello's Blog

Position: None

Covered Some Tesla

I covered some more Tesla  (TSLA)  this morning.

Position: Short TSLA (VS)

Adding to My Nvidia Short

I have added to a small Nvidia  (NVDA)  short at $138.25.

Position: Short NVDA (S)

Adding to a Cannabis Long

Adding to  (GTBIF)  long.

Position: Long GTBIF (S)

Mag 7 Retracements vs. SPY and QQQ

At 11:31 a.m.:

Mag 7 retracements intraday vs. SPY & QQQ

Screenshot 2024-10-14 at 11.31.15 AM
Position: None

Added to My Index Short Calls

With S&P cash +36 handles I have added to my Index short calls position (November in the monies).

Position: Long SPY common (S) and QQQ common (S); Short SPY calls (M) and QQQ calls (M)

Boockvar on China's Economy and Credit

From Peter Boockvar:

All the news you need to know and some comments on private credit, the new cool kid in town

I'll start with China today. The two biggest pain points of their economy are the unwind of their epic residential real estate bubble and the excessive debts at the local government level. The NDRC (Nat'l Development and Reform Commission) press conference on Saturday focused on both with the continued goal of putting a floor under the former and helping relieve the financing pressures on the latter. Also, there was more talk about giving local governments cheap financing to buy unsold properties that in turn can be rented out. What was not really discussed in detail was how to reinvigorate Chinese consumer spending. However, those looking for it via the hand out of checks was never going to get it. The Chinese consumer does not lack for savings. In fact, they have about $18 trillion of it. What they lack is confidence and hopefully a stabilization in the housing market, where much wealth is locked up in, will provide more of it.

Chinese stocks were mixed overnight with mainland trading higher but those in Hong Kong down. The offshore yuan is trading lower. Metals are mixed as iron ore is up while copper is down. We are sticking with the China/Asia related stocks we own, along with a variety of commodity related stocks.

Also out of China was softer than expected September trade data, particularly with exports. Loan data was about as expected. And lastly, both CPI and PPI came in lighter than expected. Deflation boogeyman is getting thrown around but at least for CPI flat pricing is a relief to many households and the definition of true price stability.

I probably get 5-10 private credit deal pitches emailed to me every day all with the same pitch. We'll get you equity like returns at the top of the capital stack, senior secured and we're filling the lending gaps left by the commercial banking sector. All sounds good for what is now a $1.5-$2 trillion market but a few things here. First, it is important to separate out the two forms of private credit. One focused on financing private equity deals and financial engineering. That incestuous relationship I have zero interest in investing in. The other, focused on direct lending to credits that need financing in lieu of commercial banks has more legitimacy I believe.

I bring this up because if there is one area of the financial system that reflects no monetary restrictiveness whatsoever is the money piling in to private credit and with no distinction between the different forms. And, the overflow of money is gotten so extreme, it is forcing private credit managers to invest in things they don't really like, all because the money is there.

If you didn't see Friday's Financial Times article titled "Debt resigned to backing private equity dividend recaps." If there is one area of private credit financing that should stink to the investor it is funding a dividend payment from an already highly levered company on to its private equity backers who just piled more debt on to their portfolio company. https://www.ft.com/content/24a47b4b-760a-4882-b1d8-92e5fbcd855a

The article says "Fund managers are reluctantly buying up the debt being pumped out by companies to pay their private equity owners bumper dividends as a lack of new loan supply and low yields limits investors' choice of other attractive investments."

Here was an example cited, "Last month Belron Group, which owns car windscreen repair companies in the US and UK, launched a dividend recap in which it would raise 8.1bn pounds and pay a 4.4bn pound dividend in the largest such deal on record, according to PitchBook LCD. But even though the dividend nearly doubled Belron's overall debt from less than 5bn pounds to almost 9bn pounds and led rating agencies Moody's and S&P Global to downgrade Belron deep in to junk territory, the deal was still massively over subscribed - with demand more than 7 times higher than available debt." Sheep being led to slaughter I say.

This is becoming a hugely important part of the financial plumbing to watch, especially if the Fed doesn't end up cutting rates as much as the market anticipates and/or long rates continue higher.

By the way, the year end 2025 fed funds December contract is now yielding about 3.40%, exactly where the Fed's September median dot plot stands. That December pricing got as low as 2.90% right before the September jobs report.

Before I get to the important bank earnings comments from Friday's call, this was a great chart I saw in a Bloomberg News article visualizing the bifurcated nature of the US consumer as it segments the spending growth rate by income categories. Painting a broad brush on whether the economy is strong, weak, or whatever, needs some under the hood understanding of its drivers.

boock

From JP Morgan:

Capital market activity led the growth and net interest income was above the previously lowered guidance. "In the middle market and large corporate client segments, we continue to see softness in both new loan demand and revolver utilization, in part due to client's access to receptive capital markets."

To a question on how they will further deploy a lot of their excess capital, Jamie Dimon said "cash is a very valuable asset sometimes in a turbulent world. And you see my friend Warren Buffett stockpiling cash right now. I mean, people should be a little more thoughtful about how we're trying to navigate in this world and grow for the long term for our company."

To a question of whether the Fed rate cut and interest rate drop prior to it has generated any further interest in client borrowings? "we did see, for example, a pickup in mortgage applications and a tiny bit of pickup in refi. In our multifamily lending business, there might be some hints of more activity there. But these cuts were very heavily priced, right? The curve has been inverted for a long time, so to a large degree, this is expected. So, it's not obvious to me that you should expect immediate dramatic reactions, and that's not really what we're seeing." What companies are taking advantage of are the capital markets, if they have access to it, as they are "wide open" said Dimon.

On the consumer, this was from the CFO:

"So I think what there is to say about consumer spend is a little bit boring in a sense because what's happened is that it's become normal. I mean, I think we're getting to the point where it no longer makes sense to talk about the pandemic. But maybe one last time, one of the things that you had was that heavy rotation into T&E (travel and entertainment) as people did a lot of traveling and they booked cruises that they hadn't done before and everyone was going out to dinner a lot, whatever."

And more, "So you had the big spike in T&E, the big rotation into discretionary spending. And that's now normalized. And you would normally think that rotation out of discretionary into non-discretionary would be a sign of consumers battening down the hatches and getting ready for a much worse environment. But given the levels that it started from, what we see it as is actually like normalization. And inside that data, we're not seeing weakening, for example, in retail spending."

Lastly, "So, overall, we see the spending patterns as being sort of solid and consistent with the narrative that the consumer is on solid footing and consistent with the strong labor market, and the current central case of a kind of no landing scenario economically. But you know, obviously, as we always point out, that's one scenario and there are many other scenarios."

From Wells Fargo:

"In our wholesale businesses, credit performance improved from the second quarter with lower losses in both our commercial real estate and commercial and industrial loan portfolios. The office market remains weak, and we continue to expect additional charge-offs in our CRE office portfolio and have accordingly maintained strong allowance coverage."

"Overall, customers in our consumer businesses continued to hold up relatively well, benefiting from the strong labor market and wage growth. Consumer charge-offs declines from the second quarter, driven by lower losses in our credit card portfolio, while our other consumer portfolios continued to perform well, reflecting the benefit of prior credit tightening actions."

"We continue to look for changes in consumer health, but we have not seen meaningful changes in trends when looking at delinquency statistics across our consumer credit portfolios. Both credit and debit card spend were up in the third quarter from a year ago, and although the pace of growth has slowed, it is still healthy."

I'll add, keep in mind too, that the use of credit and debit cards continue to gain share from cash.

Here was the caveat on the consumer and again to the point of bifurcation. "We continue to see more pronounced stress in certain customer segments with lower deposit and asset levels where inflation has partially offset strong employment and wage growth."

On loan growth, there is none, "Average loan balances in the third quarter were down 1% compared with a year ago. Loan demand remained weak as many clients remain cautious about investing in inventory buildup and capital expenditures due to economic uncertainty and high borrowing costs."

And more on this in the Q&A, "I think people are still being very prudent about borrowing. I think the 50 bps reduction is helpful, but not by itself a factor that will drive people to borrow or not. I think we'll need to see that come down more meaningfully if that's like the driving force." They also mentioned uncertainty around the election which is limiting loan growth.

They remain overall optimistic on the US economy and said also that "Company balance sheets are strong contributing to both consumption and investment in the economy with slowing demand for commercial lending."

From Fastenal whose stock was up big on Friday:

"the primary challenge remains sluggish end markets. The PMI has been sub 50, indicating manufacturing contraction for 22 of the last 23 months. Industrial production might be best characterized as flattish, but key components for Fastenal such as machinery and fabricated metal remain weaker than the overall index and have posted long strings of monthly declines of their own. We continue to navigate a long and grinding, albeit shallow contraction in the third quarter of 2024."

The glass half full was this, "This is accompanied by what I would call a mixed tone from regional leadership, which is an improvement on the universal pessimism of preceding months...The improved tone from regional leadership seems to reflect a willingness on the part of the marketplace to look past the November elections and into the first half of 2025. Still, in the immediate term, many markets remain weak, the PMI continues to flash pessimism and there is uncertainty over what plant shutdowns might look like during the November and December holiday seasons. We aren't expecting much change from underlying business activity in the fourth quarter of 2024, however, we do believe the strong ytd signings should benefit sales trends in the fourth quarter of 2024 and into 2025."

Position: None.

Breadth, S&P 500 Sectors and Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

kass11
kass22
kass33

Charts from 10:30 a.m. ET.

Position: None.

More Tales From Nvidia: AI Is Big Tech's 'Hail Mary' and I'm Taking a Pass

The large language models, or LLMs, used for ChatGPT and other bots might someday have only a small role in systems with common sense and human-like abilities, built using an array of other techniques and algorithms.

Today’s models are really just predicting the next word in a text, he says. But they’re so good at this that they fool us. And because of their enormous memory capacity, they can seem to be reasoning, when in fact they’re merely regurgitating information they’ve already been trained on.

“We are used to the idea that people or entities that can express themselves, or manipulate language, are smart—but that’s not true,” says LeCun. “You can manipulate language and not be smart, and that’s basically what LLMs are demonstrating.”

- Wall Street Journal, "This AI Pioneer Thinks AI Is Dumber Than a Cat"

In tech, and in most things, when the only solution seems to be more of what isn’t working well, you have a problem that really cannot be solved. As we all know, Nvidia  (NVDA)  has a new part, Blackwell, which is the "Gerry Cooney" for the large language models, or LLMs. The hyperscalers' hope is the new part will make what doesn’t work well, work well. It won’t. It will likely deliver the same bad results. The whole approach may be flawed. A chip that does the same thing with more transistors does not change anything. If the whole approach is flawed, using the same approach with more transistors does not change a thing. As noted in an earlier "Tales," they can just hallucinate with expensive water-cooled processing cycles now.

Below I include some snippets from an interesting piece of research late last week from Julien Garran at Macrostrategy. His research touches on some big picture stuff and then, importantly, the vendor financing and investing in customers issue. It is clear that business for Nvidia remains good over the near term -- better than most have thought. The stock market is telling us that, as well. In addition to the money recycling issue, which is addressed in the research piece, is somewhat counter-intuitive.  Basically, the less well this stuff works, the more money the hyperscalers seem willing to throw at it. They got the money, regardless of how grey the source of the money is, so the brinkmanship continues. They are desperate to solve a problem, and their solution for the time being is to ... throw more money at it. 

With respect to the LLMs, the value of what is delivered relative to the cost of delivering it, is still not close to being economical. As stated in this report, the more people who use it, the more money they lose. And what is delivered, in most cases, is still no better -- or even less good -- than doing it the old fashioned way, which is very cheap. But, it is so fascinating. 

Not only is the stock telling you business is good for NVDA (people have loose lips), so is the stock market. Everyone is now expecting another massive beat and raise. The market should have been down on last week's consumer price index report that was hotter than expected, and it shouldn’t have been robust as it has been recently. 

NVDA was actually up as well on Thursday and Friday. The hyperfocus on one stock, and what it means for the equity markets in total, remains stunning. It is the oddest of the odd. It is one company, with some very company-specific issues, and not a reflection on the broader economy or most of the other 500 companies in the S&P. As they say, for the time being, it is what it is. This research note argues that Big Tech’s investment in artificial intelligence today is a "Hail Mary," a phrase from American football; a desperate, low-percentage pass to a wide receiver, when the game looks dead and buried. Why are Big Tech and the software-as-a-service (SaaS) companies so keen on pumping large language model AI and AI applications? It is because they are running into growth problems, partly due to the lack of new products and content, partly due to physical constraints on their technology, and partly due to the regulator and the courts. 

For SaaS companies, upselling LLM AIs would be a dream come true, if the LLM AI apps were useful. For Amazon  (AMZN) , Alphabet  (GOOGL) , Microsoft  (MSFT)  and the other major cloud providers, the huge processing requirements for a mass market AI would be a boon to their data center businesses. The question is: Can they scale up LLM AI to make up for the loss of growth prospects elsewhere? The key problems facing LLM AIs are, first, finding a killer app. A mass market LLM AI app is notably absent, despite two years of intense development and which, because LLMs were "Built to Fail," may never come. The second problem is taking that app to profitability. That is a major issue for LLMs, as the technology appears to display "dis-economies of scale." That means that the bigger they get, the more loss-making they become. In this note I argue that all the successful Big Tech companies have used "flywheels" to gain dominant market positions. But one could argue that none of the LLM AI businesses will achieve that, and that the AI boom will turn to bust. Microsoft’s failure to sell the Co-pilot app to more than 1% of its customers, despite being perfectly placed to do so, is one sign of trouble. Are there others? Absent causal (rather than correlation-based programming), absent a completely new mass market application, which I can’t see coming, and absent a method to turn dis-economies of scale during inference into economies of scale, there might be no path to profitability for LLM AI.

From Macrostrategy: 

Over the following six months, funding for Cisco’s customers started to dry up. They could no longer afford to buy Cisco’s routers and switches. The key sign that there was a problem with the Dotcom ecosystem was Cisco’s receivables, which skyrocketed 280% over 18 months, to the end of 2020. Once Cisco decided it couldn’t take the risk of vendor financing loss making and increasingly insolvent dotcoms, demand imploded, the Dotcoms started to sell second had routers and switches back to the market to raise cash, and Cisco lost 89.3% of its market cap from the peak to late 2002. 

So, I thought I’d take a look at Nvidia’s receivables, to see if there are any similarities. Nvidia’s receivables are up 369% over the past 18 months. In my view, this is a strong signal that there are substantial, likely structural, problems generating cash in the AI ecosystem everywhere apart from Nvidia. That is neither a healthy, nor a sustainable, state of affairs. What’s going on? Three things. First, Nvidia is engaging in vendor financing to loss making AI businesses, so that they can access compute. Second, Nvidia has decided to become a cloud company, so it can sell compute directly to AI companies training and running LLMs. So Nvidia is selling GPUs to datacentre companies in return for a receivable of ‘future compute’. Getting excited about Nvidia sales on this basis, would be like getting excited that Ford sales were up if it decided to start a rental car company and sell lots of Ford cars to itself. Personally I’d put a PE of 0.5x on those types of earnings, maybe less. There is also a third element which isn’t captured in the net receivables number; Nvidia is investing in AI and datacentre companies on a reciprocal arrangement so that they can buy Nvidia’s GPUs. A GPU for equity swap. We do not know the structure of Nvidia’s investment in the latest Open AI funding round last month, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that is that is in the form of future compute as well. (Much of Microsoft’s initial US$13bn investment in Open AI has been in the form of compute, and while we also don’t know the structure of its US$1bn investment in Open AI’s latest round, my bet is that this is also in the form of compute). All of this feels very ‘fin de circle’, the kind of thing you’d do at 3am to keep the party going for just another hour. Various additional details have come out as Open AI sought to raise US$6.5bn at a US$150bn valuation over the past month. 

First, Microsoft’s previous investments entitle it to 75% of profits until it has recouped its US$13bn initial investment, followed by 49% of profits until it has recouped 120x its initial investment. Open AI is paying 9% interest on investments until it is profitable. Next, Open Ai’s revenues are on track to reach US$3.7bn this year, of which US$2.7bn is selling ChatGPT+, with a split of 88% to private consumers and 12% to corporates. A further US$1bn comes from selling developers access to models that they can integrate into their own apps. The next problem is costs. Open AI is on track to spend US$4bn on training and US$4bn on processing in 2024 (even with discounted compute rates from Microsoft), and it is expected to lose US$5bn overall this year. Using Open AI’s own projections from their offer document, the company is set to lose US$14bn in 2026. Ironically, the fewer people who use it, the less Open AI will lose. I will discuss the ability, or otherwise, of LLMs to create a ‘flywheel’ and to scale, later in the piece.

The short summary of this is that buyers are all loading up the boat on the new part, and racing to be the first to do it, thinking they can get ahead and something will change. Then they will put it into production, and find out not much changes. But the race continues. It is so odd. And it is so annoying that MSFT keeps all the losses of doing this off their books, too. Real economic accounting would be a big governor on this. The industry is an example of how a government would behave, without any media or regulations holding them accountable.

All these guys for the time being can crap money down the toilet, with little consequence. Therefore this cycle of irrationality can have longer legs than most cycles of irrationality, because the economic losses are hidden. Other cycles have been driven by public companies with real accounting, so you can see what is going on. This cycle is driven by private companies doing the spending, who are being funded by their suppliers (Nvidia) or customers (Microsoft), and the losses are kept out of the public markets, while the benefits accrue to the public companies, given how this is all structured.

Another Key Point: Tesla

There is one more related point I forgot. Tesla  (TSLA)  had its big robotaxi event Thursday night. This was the event that was supposed to happen a few months ago, but was delayed, ostensibly because they weren’t ready to go.

Well, it was one huge flop. (We are short).

The stock got hammered Friday to the tune of 9% (about $80 billion in market cap), because there is still nothing there. No matter how much money and time Tesla throws at it, the AI underpinning full self driving still does not work. Tesla was only really able to talk about vaporware, and things to come in a few years from now, which folks are obviously skeptical will actually happen.

It is so odd; what it's doing obviously isn’t working. Tesla has bright people. Normally bright, and practical, people pivot to a different approach when what they are doing isn’t working. But a different approach does not exist yet, nor will it exist for the foreseeable future. For the time being, I guess they can’t say mercy and give up, because they have promised so much, so they keep throwing more money at the same approach that doesn’t work. But that will not go on forever. Eventually economic gravity strikes, and all of these guys pursuing the same thing in different markets, also won’t be able to get enough power because there is a 7-year waiting list in many cases for new power now (that those jerks still want me to pay for).

This stuff really doesn’t work. As far as the mainstream population goes, the only people using LLMs are the tech bros and kids using it to cheat on their homework, because as long as you turn something in with words in it, regardless of what those words say, you are fine.

This really is the oddest cycle in the history of the markets. The first one ever that is opaque. I mentioned before in "Tales" that we have no idea how much money is being lost doing this, because a lot of it is hidden in private companies. Heck, you don’t even know what underlying revenue growth is. All the public markets know is how much money NVDA is collecting from the money losers, who NVDA itself is funding. Quite a racket, every dollar they fund someone with, probably turns into 1,000-times that in terms of NVDA market cap.

How can you even track this stuff? We don’t know the revenue. MSFT makes a cash investment into Open AI, it is a 1x transaction. But then the CAPEX and operating losses are off their books. TSLA – who knows, the accounting there is so opaque, nobody can ever figure out what is going on, and who knows what is pushed to xAI, which is off the books. And on and on, nobody knows exactly what is going on. Then on top of that, the depreciation schedules for the whole industry are baloney too. My guess is at least 2x as long as their practical use.

Anyway, this is where it all seems to be for the time being. Grey, opaque, and one company getting the benefit of something that seemingly doesn’t work, which can happen for some period of time because the losses that fund them are invisible to the markets and self-serving given how all the losses are funded. It really seems to be a big money recycling operation, with the losing end of the trade hidden.

Perhaps AI is a "Hail Mary."

Position: Long AMZN (S); Short NVDA (S); TSLA (VS)

Upside, Downside Moves Before the Opening Bell

Upside:

-TVGN +130% (plans to share $1B+ revenue potential of its pipeline portfolio beginning week of Oct 14th)

-LBPH +52% (to be acquired by Lundbeck at $60/shr cash in $2.6B equity value deal)

-VNDA +21% (Cycle Pharmaceuticals confirms all-cash proposal at $8.00/shr; making renewed proposal public to benefit Vanda shareholders in light of Vanda Board’s continued refusal to engage following receipt of multiple premium proposals)

-RILY +20% (confirms to establish partnership with Oaktree in the Great American Group, newly formed holding company; B. Riley to receive total consideration consisting of ~$203M in cash, Class B Preferred units of Great America NewCo)

-BLCO +11% (receives FDA Approval for enVista Envy Full Range of Vision Intraocular Lens)

-LFVN +6.6% (introduces the MindBody GLP-1 System for weight management)

-SOFI +6.6% (expands loan platform business with $2B agreement with Fortress Investment Group)

-NRIX +4.1% (earnings)

-FLUT +3.7% (Wells Fargo Raised FLTR.UK to Overweight from Equal Weight, price target: $295)

-INBS +2.0% (announces adoption of Non-Invasive Drug Screening Solution by Pyrotek)

-LUV +1.2% (reportedly activist investor Elliott requesting special shareholder meeting at Southwest on Dec 10th)

Downside:

-RYAM -5.0% (provides update on a fire at its Jesup Plant (its largest facility) including $15-20M impact on EBITDA; A and B lines will remain offline for repairs with a target start date the week of Oct 28th)

-MLCO -3.8% (Tier1 firm Cuts MLCO to Neutral from Buy, price target: $9.20 from $7.20)

-VFC -3.3% (Wells Fargo Cuts VFC to Underweight from Equal Weight, price target: $15)

-BA -2.2% (earnings, guidance; plans to reduce the size of our total workforce by roughly 10% and delaying 777x deliveries to 2026)

-CAT -1.9% (Morgan Stanley Cuts CAT to Underweight from Equal Weight, price target: $332 from $349)

Position: None.

Charting Exchange-Traded Fund Moves Before the Bell

etf1
etf2
Position: None.

Charting the Premarket Movers

Chart from 8:35 a.m. ET:

premarket1
Position: None.

Fed Speakers Today

9:00 a.m. ET: Fed of Minneapolis President Kashkari (Non-Voter) participates in panel discussion at the Central Bank of Argentina's Money and Banking Conference: "Fiscal Deficits, Monetary Policy and Inflation," Buenos Aires, Argentina

3:00 p.m.: Fed Board Governor Waller (Voter) speaks on the economic outlook before the "A 50-Year Retrospective on The Shadow Open Market Committee and Its Role in Monetary Policy" conference hosted by Stanford University, Stanford, CA

5:00 p.m.: FedBank of Minneapolis President Kashkari (Non-Voter) participates in lecture/fireside chat, "The Current State of U.S. Monetary Policy," hosted by the Department of Economics at Torcuato di Tella University, Buenos Aires, Argentina

Position: None.

An Important Marijuana Moment: Harris Vows Access to Cannabis Would Be 'Law of Land'

Vice Pres. Kamala Harris promised to legalize marijuana at the federal level, according to a report from Tom Angell of marijuanamoment.net, effectively "ensuring that access to cannabis is 'the law of the land.'”

"If elected, she will 'break down unjust legal barriers that hold Black men and other Americans back by legalizing marijuana nationally, working with Congress to ensure that the safe cultivation, distribution, and possession of recreational marijuana is the law of the land,' the Harris campaign said in a press release on Monday," according to the report.

The entire piece is here: https://www.marijuanamoment.net/kamala-harris-rolls-out-marijuana-legalization-plan-pledging-to-make-it-the-law-of-the-land/

Position: None.

Charting the Technicals

"The market is better at predicting the news than the news is at predicting the market.” 

- Gerald Loeb

Bonus — Here are some great links:

Alphatrends

Press Conference Roulette

Tech vs. Semiconductors

Breakout Trends During Earnings Season

Position: None

Tweet of the Day (Part Deux)

Position: None

Tweet of the Day

Position: None
Doug Kass - Watchlist (Longs)
ContributorSymbolInitial DateReturn
Doug KassVKTX4/2/24-31.72%
Doug KassOXY12/6/23-14.53%
Doug KassCVX12/6/23+10.81%
Doug KassXOM12/6/23+13.02%
Doug KassMSOS11/1/23-22.80%
Doug KassJOE9/19/23-14.64%
Doug KassOXY9/19/23-25.97%
Doug KassELAN3/22/23+37.02%
Doug KassVTV10/20/20+64.63%
Doug KassVBR10/20/20+77.10%