* Bad breadth...

* On the week...

The markets' pleasant complexion (and upwards momentum) were challenged in the last few trading sessions.

Volatility and the lack of predictability — from even an hourly basis — have been challenging for most traders.

I continue to view the market outlook as unfavorable for the numerous reasons mentioned in my Diary (fundamentals, sentiment, valuations, political/geopolitical considerations, market structure, etc.)

It seems prudent to park extra reserves in short term paper... for now.

Thanks for reading my Diary today and all week.

Enjoy the weekend.

Be safe.

Interesting commentary on cannabis by Jefferies:

Weed Weekly (Issue 197): Indirect Big Tobacco Involvement in the US?

Weed Weekly summarizes each week's main developments, with key thoughts and considerations. Focus this issue is on some interesting comments by the OGI CEO about involvement in the US, both hemp THC, and possible MSO investment. For us, this is notable as BAT has an effective 45% stake in OGI, so you would imagine these moves have been given their blessing.

We caught up on a recent 'X' spaces hosted by Z&A with the CEO's of Canadian operator, OGI, and German operator, Sanity. Among a number of interesting takeaways, with others covered in the main body, the main discussion that caught our attention was comments around investments into the US by OGI as part of its Jupiter investment fund.

Remember, big tobacco BAT has an effective 45% stake in OGI, and the Jupiter capital was provided by BAT. Given these dynamics, you'd imagine BAT has given these moves their blessing, and would result in BAT becoming indirectly involved in the US. There were two areas of consideration.

First, OGI once again confirmed that they will be looking to enter the hemp THC space in the US. This is a space we have written on a number of times, including in depth as part of our 2024 outlook. Hemp THC is currently legal at the federal level as is now believed by be around $25bn in retail sales. It looks like OGI plan to enter this space with support of Open Book Extracts (OBE), this being the first company OGI invested in with Jupiter money. OBE specializes in legal cannabinoid ingredient production and serves as a one-stop formulation and finished good's manufacturer, simplifying its clients’ supply chain. OGI said they are currently doing testing work around efficacy and formulations with OBE, notably formulations involving THC and other compounds such as Melatonin — with the goal of coming up with differentiated offering to introduce to the market.

Second, and arguably more interesting, OGI confirmed they are looking to invest in an MSO in a way that does not impact their current NASDAQ and TSX listing — the CEO pointing the structures put in place by other Canadian operators, Canopy and Sundial, to get around this, this involving the issuance of non-voting shares and thereby ringfencing the US marijuana THC assets. Marijuana THC is, of course, still illegal at the federal level. OGI also said they do not want to have passive investments, so it would suggest any investment would take the form of equity in non-voting shares like at Canopy or Sundial, or maybe the issuance of convertible debt, like has been the investment in OBE and Sanity — Sanity being the second investment with Jupiter funds. We don't think it will be the option to acquire equity like we saw with Cronos and Pharmacann back in 2021 — with another big tobacco name, Altria, having an effective 41% stake in Cronos. Note that of the initial Jupiter $83mn, it has around $58mn left, and therefore although OGI said a "good chunk" of the remaining funds will be used for the US, any investment in an MSO would be a minimal effective stake. It could, of course, not be an investment in an MSO, but could be in a smaller operator in the US, perhaps even a private with a strong brand in a specific segment.

Whether or not these moves materialize, this indirect involvement by BAT arguably shows appetite for some kind of US exposure among broader CPG is building, potentially influenced by the growing reform momentum at the federal level, and specifically plans to reschedule cannabis to Schedule 3 from Schedule 1 this year. If we do see rescheduling this year, as well as potential other measures like SAFER and a new Cole Memo, we think it is very possible we see other CPG looking to get exposure over the next 12 months.

From Peter Boockvar:

Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events:

Positives,

1)Core retail sales saw a big upside surprise in June with a .9% m/o/m gain vs the forecast of up .2%. That comes after a .4% rise in May that was left unrevised. They are higher by 4.1% y/o/y.

2)The July Philly index surprised us with a print of +13.9, up from +1.3 in June. The estimate was +2.9. The Philly region has been the positive outlier relative to both its regional peers and the national number as it is now above zero for the 6th straight month. Looking out six months, expectations for growth rose to 38.7 from 13.8 in June and 32.4 in May.

3)Multi family starts (lumpy month to month) totaled 373k in June which is up from 312k in May and vs the multi year low of 258k in March. It touched 627k at the peak in April 2022. Permits for multi family rose to 512k from 443k.

4)Maybe can provide some relief to first time home buyers to mitigate still high mortgage rates, “Home listings are piling up as buyers step back from the peak of home shopping season faster than normal” said Zillow. Their chief economist said, “A growing segment of homes that aren’t competitively priced or well marketed are lingering on the market. Sellers are increasingly cutting prices to entice buyers struggling with affordability.”

5)Refi applications jumped 15.2% after falling in the 4 previous months.

6)Foreigners, led by offshore funds, bought a net $46b of US notes and bonds in May. However, the two largest holders, Japan and China, continued to trim their holdings.

7)US industrial production in June rose .6% m/o/m, twice the estimate because of a lift in manufacturing production mostly due to autos. A jump in utility output helped too.

8)Taiwan Semi's CEO said on its AI chip business, "The demand is so high, I had to work very hard to meet customer demand." On the inventory side, "The supply continues to be very tight all the way into 2025 and hopefully we can ease in 2026...We continue to increase capacity wherever we can, whatever we can."

9)From Bank America: "we highlight the 30 and 90 day plus credit card delinquency trends, which show delinquencies have plateaued for the 2nd consecutive quarter."

10)From DR Horton: "Although inflation and mortgage interest rates remain elevated, the supply of both new and existing homes at affordable price points is still limited, and the demographics supporting housing demand remain favorable. Homebuyer demand during the spring selling season was good, despite continued affordability challenges."

11)From United Airlines: Good for their profitability but will result in higher ticket prices, "Looking forward, we see multiple airlines have begun to cancel loss-making capacity, and we expect leading unit revenue performance among our largest peers in the 2nd half of the 3rd quarter. United has long been preparing for the moment when industry wide domestic capacity would adjust - it's now clear that inflection point is just 30 days away."

12)The ECB stood pat after the rate cut last month. Maybe we get one or two more by year end based on market pricing and their comments.

13)Australian employment rose by 50.2k in June, more than double the estimate of up 20k. Though their unemployment rate did tick up by one tenth to 4.1% as expected.

Negatives,

1)From the Fed’s Beige Book, this continues to sound like a really uneven and mixed economy. "Economy activity maintained a slight to modest pace of growth in a majority of Districts this reporting cycle. However, while seven Districts reported some level of increase in activity, five noted flat or declining activity—three more than in the prior reporting period."

2)After the holiday influenced initial claims figure last week that saw it fall to 223k (revised up by 1k), this week’s number reverted back to the higher trend at 243k and that was well above the estimate of 229k. It matches the highest print since August 2023. Smoothing out the noise saw the 4 week average move to 235k from 234k and that is just below the highest since last August. Continuing claims rose to 1.867mm from 1.847mm, about 10k more than expected and the highest since November 2021.

3)The NY July manufacturing regional index was -6.6 vs -6.0 in June and around the estimate of -7.6. It’s been negative 8 months in a row. As for the 6 month outlook, business expectations fell 4.3 pts m/o/m to 25.8 but after doubling to 30.1 in June.

4)The July NAHB home builder sentiment index dropped 1 pt m/o/m to 42, the lowest since December and well below the breakeven of 50. The Present Situation and Expectations components were little changed at 47 and 48 respectively. Prospective Buyers Traffic came in at just 27, also the weakest since December. Of note, the NAHB said “that 31% of builders cut home prices to bolster sales in July, above the June rate of 29%. However, the average price reduction in July held steady at 6% for the 13th straight month. Meanwhile, the use of sales incentives held steady at 61% in July, the same reading as June.”

5)Single family starts fell by 22k m/o/m to 980k in June and that is the least since last October. Permits filed for single family fell to 934k, the least since May 2023.

6)Purchase applications fell 2.7% w/o/w and remain down 14% y/o/y.

7)Cass Freight's June index saw a 1.8% m/o/m drop to a four year low in shipments in June and were down 6% y/o/y. They said "Amid slowing economic growth, goods demand is still broadly flattish." Combine sluggish volumes with still excess trucking capacity and the Cass Inferred Freight Rate dropped by 1.4% m/o/m in June, "giving up part of the 3.9% jump in May to a six month high."

8)The Shanghai to Rotterdam trip now costs $8,267 for a 40 ft container vs $1,667 at the beginning of the year and vs around $2,000 in February 2020. While still well below the nearly $15,000 seen in October 2021, it's the most expensive in two years. We did get relief though on the Shanghai to LA route where prices fell $224 w/o/w to $7,288, though which still compares with $2,100 at the end of 2023. The Shanghai to NY trip price rose $225 w/o/w to $9,612, tripling this year. It was about $2,800 in February 2020 and peaked at $16,138 in September 2021.

9)Headline import prices were flat m/o/m in June, two tenths more than estimated and May was revised up by 2 tenths. They are up 1.6% y/o/y. Ex petro, import prices rose .2% m/o/m instead of falling by 2 tenths as expected. They are up 1% y/o/y. Ex food and energy prices were unchanged m/o/m and higher by just .6% y/o/y.

10)From Manpower: "Our most recent employment outlook survey of over 40,000 employers this spring found that hiring confidence is holding steady at lower levels compared to a year ago as economic uncertainty continue to give employers pause and economies in Europe and North America are gradually cooling with inflation moderating. Many large enterprise clients are prioritizing hiring for the core skills they need and holding on to the skilled workers they have. At the same time, while the promise of AI is yet to be realized, it is front of mind for businesses across every industry...Priority is placed on retaining and attracting workers with specialized, flexible skills and an adaptable mindset to adjust to the evolving requirements in the workplace."

11)From JPMorgan last Friday: "In terms of credit performance this quarter, credit costs were $2.6 billion, reflecting net charge-offs of $2.1 billion, up $813 million y/o/y, predominantly driven by Card as newer vintages season and credit normalization continues. The net reserve build was $579 million, also driven by Card due to loan growth and updates to certain macroeconomic variables…Demand for new loans remains muted as middle market and large corporate clients remain somewhat cautious due to the economic environment and revolver utilization continues to be below pre-pandemic levels. Also, capital markets are open and are providing an alternative to traditional bank lending for these clients." Also, "I still feel like when it comes to Card charge-offs and delinquencies, there is just not much to see there. It's normalization, not deterioration, it's in line with expectations. And as I say, we always look quite closely inside the cohorts, inside the income cohorts. And when you look in there, specifically for example, on spend patterns, you can see a little bit of evidence of behavior that's consistent with a little bit of weakness in the lower income segments where you see a little bit of rotation on the spend out of discretionary into non-discretionary...And so, it's not entirely surprising that you're seeing a tiny bit of weakness in some pockets of spend. So, it all kind of hangs together in what is in some sense actually not a very interesting story."

12)From Bank America: "The modest improvement in overall commercial loans included a 2% increase in our domestic commercial loans and leases, partially offset by a 4% decline in CRE." Overall with loans, "Average loans and leases of $373b decreased $10b or 3%, reflecting lower client demand."

13)From Wells Fargo: "In our commercial portfolios, losses continued to be driven by commercial real estate office properties where we expect losses to remain lumpy. Fundamentals in the institutional owned office real estate market continued to deteriorate as lower appraisals reflected the weak leasing market in many large metro areas across the country. However, they still remain within the assumptions we made when setting our allowance for credit losses."

14)From PNC: "Net loan charge-offs of $262 million increased $19 million, primarily due to higher commercial real estate net loan charge-offs."

15)From Discover Financial: "We continue to see a cautious consumer evidenced by less card member spend with lower income households being most affected. Personal loans were up 13% from the prior year period. In response to market conditions, we prudently tightened underwriting over the past year, which has served to modestly reduce originations."

16)From DR Horton: Helping to drive home sales though, "To address affordability, we are still using incentives such as mortgage rate buydowns, and we have reduced the prices and sizes of our homes where necessary. Although our home sales gross margins improved sequentially this quarter, incentives are elevated, and we expect them to remain near these levels, assuming similar market conditions and no significant changes in mortgage rates."

17)From JB Hunt: For the 7% y/o/y revenue decline they blame "A combination of either lower volumes and/or yields, but most notably lower rates."

18)From Leslie’s: "The cold and wet spring weather we experienced during the fiscal 2nd quarter extended through May, reducing the number of pool days in non-seasonal markets and delaying the start of pool season in seasonal markets. We also continued to see weakness in large ticket discretionary categories as persistent inflation and high interest rates pressure pool owners' wallets. We experienced improved sales trends in June, but the April and May revenue impact created negative operating leverage and gross margin headwinds.”

19)Richemont in their quarterly update cited "Persistent macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties" impacting their business.

20)Burberry mentioned "a backdrop of slowing luxury demand.” Swatch too.

21)From Fastenal: "A tough quarter. Our net sales grew about 2%. Our underlying market remains challenging...we continue in that sub 50 ISM, and that's 19 of the last 20 months, we saw a blip in March that proved to be a head fake. It's an uncommonly long duration that weighs on US industrial production and consequently affects our daily sales rates because 75% of our revenue is industrial."

22)Japan's June CPI headline read was up 2.8% y/o/y, same as May and one tenth less than expected. The ex food and energy rate though rose to 2.2% from 2.1% and that was as forecasted. That marks 21 months in a row with core/core CPI above 2%.

23)Japan said its June exports were up by 5.4% y/o/y, below the estimate of up 7.2% and not getting the weak yen help that was anticipated. As a weak yen too makes all imports more expensive, imports grew by 3.2% y/o/y, well under the estimate of up 9.6%.

24)The UK reported jobs data about as expected and with no change in their unemployment rate of 4.4% for the 3 months ended May. There was though another rise in June jobless claims of 32.3k after jumping by 52k in May. Those are the two biggest back to back increases since 2020. Wage growth thru May was up 5.7% y/o/y ex bonuses' and partly helps to explain why service price inflation is still running hot as productivity gains in the UK remains muted.

25)UK retail sales in June ex auto fuel dropped by 1.5% m/o/m, well worse than the estimate of down .5%.

26)Also in the UK, while headline CPI was up just 2% y/o/y, the core rate was much higher at 3.5% because of a 5.7% service price increase, all one tenth above expectations.

27)The July German ZEW investor expectations index on the German economy fell to 41.8 from 47.5 but that was a bit better than the feared drop to 41. The Current Situation was less negative at -68.9 but the Expectations component softened to 43.7 from 51.3. The ZEW said "The economic outlook is worsening. For the first time in a year, economic expectations for Germany are falling. The fact that German exports decreased more than expected in May, the political uncertainty in France and the lack of clarity regarding the future monetary policy by the ECB have contributed to this development."

28)China reported a slower than expected GDP growth rate for Q2 of 4.7% vs the estimate of 5.1%. Softness in retail sales was a main factor and with continued trouble in residential real estate.

29)The attempt on Trump’s life was shocking and scary regardless of one’s political beliefs.

Home builders have been on a tear this year — but I think it is the beginning of the end of the run rather than the end of the beginning:

* Expectations are high as the industry has consistently beat expectations in the last two years.

* Interest (and mortgage) rates will likely remain higher for longer.

* The U.S. economy is weakening — with unemployment rising and affordability stretched (back to 2006 levels), while housing activity might disappoint (even with a modest drop in interest rates).

* WIth long lead times to construction (land acquisition, zoning, etc.), homebuilding is a less predictable business than appears over time. It is also deeply cyclical — though you might not know it from the last few years.

* The surprising strength of the homebuilding market stems from the effect of 15 years of ZIRP and the fact that a rapid rise in interest rates created disincentives to sell and "move up." Now everyone understands this phenomenon — it is no longer a shock.

* While valuations are subdued, they are much higher than a year ago. 

While the price momentum in the sector has been extraordinary, I have taken a very small short position in several homebuilders.

More to come.

The SEC responds to the outage:

I have covered all my trading short rentals.

Adding to MSOS.

Scott Galloway's No Mercy/No Malice.... Misdirects.

Breadth

S&P 500 Sector ETFs

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

Added to cannabis (TCNNF and VRNOF) on this morning's weakness.

I am expanding my private equity shorts on this morning's strength.

Sometimes it's tough to follow my trading — especially when I get active.

I was long Morgan Stanley MS/Goldman Sachs GS for some time and I double sold (sold long and shorted in the latter part of this week).

I subsequently covered for a profit.

I am now flat both names.

Added to Coca-Cola KO short at $65.54.

10:40AM: Fed Bank of New York President Williams (Voter) participates in "A New Era for Monetary Policy" panel before the BCRP-RBWC-IDB 15th Annual Conference: "The Rewiring of the Global Economy" organized by the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP), Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee (RBWC), and Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), Cusco, Peru (No text. Moderated Q&A expected. Livestream available for this session).

1:00PM: Fed Bank of Atlanta President Bostic (Voter) gives closing remarks before the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas/Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta "Exploring Conventional Bank Funding Regimes in an Unconventional World" conference, Dallas, TX (Livestream available. No Q&A. No embargoed text).

From Peter Boockvar:

Maybe a global rate tweaking cycle instead?/TIC data/Earnings comments/Japan CPI

Maybe we're on the cusp of a global (outside of Japan) rate tweaking cycle instead of a rate cutting cycle? Post the ECB meeting where right after it ended and when all the leaks from the meeting flow out, Bloomberg News reported that "ECB policymakers are increasingly wondering if they may only be able to cut interest rates once more this year, according to people familiar with the matter. With inflation pressures still lingering, officials are becoming less confident that a path for two further reductions is realistic, and don't want investors to assume that a move in September is a done deal, said the people, who declined to be identified because deliberations are private."

That said, the swaps market is currently fully pricing in two more rate cuts and members Villeroy and Simkus today said they agreed with that assumption. Bonds yields are little changed for a 2nd day and same with the euro so nothing really market moving from the ECB meeting.

While foreigners bought a net $46b of US notes and bonds in May according to last night's TIC data, it seems that Japan might have sold some Treasuries in order to fund their FX intervention. After selling a net $37.5b in April, they sold another $22b in Japan, taking their total holdings to $1.1 trillion, still the number one spot but that is the least since November. China sold $2.4b worth of Treasuries and their holdings are hovering around the lowest since 2009 and not a coincidence that the holdings really went south soon after Russian invaded Ukraine and the EU and US froze half of Russia's central bank reserves.

Purchases coming from the Cayman Islands led the buying, $17.1b worth, and are typically hedge funds domiciled there. Canada added $16.3b and the UK $13.1b. The UK can be anyone, including banks, hedge funds and countries using a UK bank to transact.

Bottom line, while 'foreigners' in totality continue to purchase US Treasuries, the % ownership of them continues to fall. They own about 30% of US marketable debt vs 50% 10 years ago (see page 2 which is page 5 of report, https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/RS22331.pdf). As part of this, the % of foreign reserves that hold US dollars as of March sits at the lowest level since 1996 with gold picking up some of that slack.

Japanese Holdings of US Notes and Bonds

China's Treasury Holdings

FX Holdings in US dollars as % of Reserves

Let's get to the earnings calls and I'll start with Manpower considering our heightened focus on the US labor market.

"Our most recent employment outlook survey of over 40,000 employers this spring found that hiring confidence is holding steady at lower levels compared to a year ago as economic uncertainty continue to give employers pause and economies in Europe and North America are gradually cooling with inflation moderating. Many large enterprise clients are prioritizing hiring for the core skills they need and holding on to the skilled workers they have. At the same time, while the promise of AI is yet to be realized, it is front of mind for businesses across every industry...Priority is placed on retaining and attracting workers with specialized, flexible skills and an adaptable mindset to adjust to the evolving requirements in the workplace."

As for specifics in the quarter, "I think generally the trends that we talked about last quarter are for the most part holding kind of in line with the trends in terms of stability overall. What that means in the scheme of things is auto continues to be more solid, although auto has been leveling off a bit, it is still holding up better than the rest of manufacturing. I would say the manufacturing sector ex auto continues to be much more sluggish." On 'enterprise tech', although it has stabilized, it continues to be an area of very sluggish demand and running at stable levels but lower levels of course overall."

Also, "although financial services was a bit of a strength from a sector perspective a year ago towards the end of 2023 and here in the first half of '24 we've seen financial services pull back a bit. So financial services has been trending a bit weaker."

"one area that has been a strength is healthcare and we certainly saw that in the US business in the first half of this year. Maybe one other one would be aerospace has been strong in Europe, in France particularly."

Dominoes stock fell sharply because numbers didn't meet expectations but they were pretty confident in their call. Though they did acknowledge "consumer spending slowing" but they did see gains in all income cohorts.

With regards to the lower income customer, "Yeah, the order count there is positive as well, and part of that was intent, not only from our pricing but as we put the loyalty program together." One can spend $5 and now get points vs $10 previously.

From Discover Financial:

"Our fundamental performance in the period was driven by revenue expansion from loan growth, higher net interest margin and non-interest revenue growth. Credit continues to perform in line with expectations, supporting our view that losses are near peak and will plateau during the 2nd half of 2024." I'll add, let's hope but much will depend on the labor market trajectory from here.

However, "We continue to see a cautious consumer evidenced by less card member spend with lower income households being most affected. Personal loans were up 13% from the prior year period. In response to market conditions, we prudently tightened underwriting over the past year, which has served to modestly reduce originations."

Their charge-offs and delinquency rates rose y/o/y but fell q/o/q in part due to their tightening of lending standards.

Synchrony Financial talked about this point on Wednesday. "And while our credit trends relative to pre-pandemic levels have outperformed most of the industry today, we have leveraged these strengths to take action in our portfolio where we have seen indications of higher probability of default. These credit actions, along with a more selectively spending consumer, have contributed to lower new account and purchase volume growth in the 2nd quarter, but have also improved our recent delinquency trends and should strengthen our portfolio's credit trajectory in 2024 and beyond."

From DR Horton:

"Although inflation and mortgage interest rates remain elevated, the supply of both new and existing homes at affordable price points is still limited, and the demographics supporting housing demand remain favorable. Homebuyer demand during the spring selling season was good, despite continued affordability challenges."

Helping to drive sales though, "To address affordability, we are still using incentives such as mortgage rate buydowns, and we have reduced the prices and sizes of our homes where necessary. Although our home sales gross margins improved sequentially this quarter, incentives are elevated, and we expect them to remain near these levels, assuming similar market conditions and no significant changes in mortgage rates."

PPG Industries has their call this morning but in their release they referenced operating in the quarter "in an increasingly challenging macro-environment."

They saw growth in "aerospace coatings, packaging coatings, architectural coatings Americas and Asia Pacific, traffic solutions and specialty coatings and materials." On the other hand, "This growth was offset by global automotive builds that weakened as the quarter progressed and global industrial production which remained soft."

Specifically in the US, "economic conditions have remained subdued in several end-use markets, but we expect overall improvement as the 2nd half of the year progresses."

With regards to the overseas economic data today, Japan's June CPI figure was the highlight. The headline read was up 2.8% y/o/y, same as May and one tenth less than expected. The ex food and energy rate though rose to 2.2% from 2.1% and that was as forecasted. That marks 21 months in a row with core/core CPI above 2%. Enough confidence BoJ?

As everything was about in line, the 10 yr inflation breakeven is down 2 bps while the 10 yr JGB yield is unchanged. The yen is flattish too as was the Nikkei overnight. I expect a BoJ rate increase, albeit small, and a big cut to QE, maybe in half.

Upside:

-SERV +68% (Nvidia disclosed 10.0% passive stake)

-NVOS +21% (receives Commencement of Disbursement Notice for SBLC Leasing and Monetizing Program)

-S +7.8% (potential winner in CRWD global outage issue)

-SIGA +6.0% (announces US HHS Procurement Order of $113M for Oral TPOXX)

-WWW +5.6% (UBS Raised WWW to Buy from Neutral, price target: $20)

-ISRG +5.5% (earnings)

-ABL +5.1% (prelim earnings)

-SGRY +4.1% (said to explore sale)

-AMK +3.6% (reports earnings, withdraws guidance)

-LLY +2.4% (Mufengda (tirpatide injection) approved by National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) for indication of long-term weight management)

-PANW +2.4% (potential winner in CRWD global outage issue)

Downside:

-SILO -30% (prices $2.1M Registered Direct Offering at $2.75/shr)

-PLUG -12% (prices 78.7M Shares of common stock at $2.54/shr)

-CRWD -11% (global wide-spread IT outage and issues caused in various industries)

-CRSR -8.3% (reports prelim Q2 revenue)

-WIT -7.0% (earnings, guidance)

-ALV -5.3% (earnings, guidance)

-HAL -2.5% (earnings, guidance)

-AXP -2.3% (earnings, guidance)

-BMI -2.3% (earnings)

At 8:19 a.m.:

As of 8:33 a.m.:

The MSOS buyer is back:

Housekeeeping item.

I have covered my Berkshire Hathaway BRK.B trading short rental in premarket activity. 

Wedbush lowers Starbucks' SBUX price target to $77.

"An ounce of action is worth a ton of theory."

- Ralph Waldo Emerson

Bonus — Here are some great links:

What Happens After Extention? 

This Year's Rally Has Gotten More Healthy

Will This Sector Be Something More Exciting?

Mining Stocks, Shiny Objects?

Todd Sohn

* Narratives are changing rapidly....

"When the facts change, I change my mind - what do you do, sir?"

- John Maynard Keynes

Two months ago uranium and copper were embraced by a number of very smart investors — and many traders jumped on to the bandwagon.

Look at the chart on uranium.

Then look at this, on copper (until recently the climb in the commodity was applauded by the bullish cabal as being economically and market friendly):

"Its really a momentuous time for Crowdstrike..."

- CNBC

And, dude, the only certainty is the lack of certainty (10 days ago!):

CrowdStrike Just Became the Hottest Software Stock of 2024 - YouTube