- NYSE volume 438M shares, 14% above its one-month average; 

- NASDAQ volume 4.11B shares, 11% below its one-month average

- VIX: +3.98% to 13.05

- NYSE Highs: 39 Lows: 5- NASDAQ Highs: 119 Lows: 54

View Chart »View in New Window »

Extreme partisanship is not a good influence as our country faces a burgeoning deficit and runaway debt loads:

View Chart »View in New Window »

I will be heading out shortly for my meetings.

I will try my best to do occasionally post!

* At 10 am:

View Chart »View in New Window »

Shorting more Rollins (ROL) on RTO news.

Adding to my energy exposure.

Upside

- (SPRC) +56% (announces $20M standby equity purchase agreement)
- (PRPL) +17% (guidance)
- (NFLX) +9.3% (earnings, guidance)
- (IDEX) +8.6% (WAVE Charging has first-ever OEM-approved commercial Wireless Charging Integration in Kenworth's Class 6 Electric Trucks)
- (LRN) +6.8% (earnings, guidance)
- (ASML) +5.8% (earnings, guidance)
- (ISRG) +5.8% (earnings, guidance)
- (CTMX) +5.0% (announces FDA Clearance of IND Applications for CX-2051, a Probody Antibody Drug Conjugate (ADC) Targeting EpCAM and CX-801, a Conditionally Activated Interferon Alpha-2b)
- (FCX) +4.8% (earnings, guidance)
- (TEL) +4.8% (earnings, guidance)
- (EBAY) +4.4% (guidance; to cut 1K full time jobs in second round of cuts within a year)
- (PGR) +3.9% (earnings)
- (MODD) +3.5% (issues new US patent)
- (AVXL) +3.3% (reports Publication of ANAVEX3-71 in Clinical Journal confirming pharmacokinetic dose proportionality of ANAVEX3-71 in humans)
- (VERO) +3.3% (announces review of strategic alternatives)
- (URGN) +3.2% (submits Rolling NDA to the FDA for UGN-102 in 2024 with potential FDA decision as early as 1Q25)
- (ELV) +2.8% (earnings, guidance)
- (TXT) +2.5% (earnings, guidance)
- (BNGO) +2.3% (announces publication of interim readout from second phase of clinical trial analyzing optical genome mapping as standard of care (SOC) for prenatal testing)
- (DM) +2.2% (intensifies cost reduction plan of additional $50M and ongoing strategic business review to accelerate path to profitability; to cut 20% of jobs)
- (SRAD) +2.2% (affirms FY23 guidance and announces additional strategic actions)

Downside

- (THTX) -31% (receives Complete Response Letter (CRL) from FDA for F8 Formulation of Tesamorelin sBLA)
- (DD) -12% (reports prelim Q4, issues guidance)
- (MMAT) -11% (announces 1-for-100 reverse stock split and distribution of Series C preferred stock to holders of its common stock)
- (BB) -8.7% (files to sell private offering of $160M of convertible senior notes due 2029)
- (ANVS) -5.4% (postpones timeline for Parkinson's Phase III study data announcement)
- (KMB) -4.4% (earnings, guidance)
- (PEGA) -4.1% (introduces new Generative AI Assistant fortified with enterprise-grade integration, auditing, and controls)
- (T) -3.6% (earnings, guidance)
- (TXN) -3.1% (earnings, guidance)
- (EWBC) -3.0% (earnings)
- (ABT) -2.1% (earnings, guidance)

At 8:14 am:

View Chart »View in New Window »

At 8:28 am:

View Chart »View in New Window »

* The market's freight train continues to accelerate - with futures buoyed by China's loosening

* But yesterday, was, again, characterized by weak breadth:

View Chart »View in New Window »

* Investor sentiment has moved slightly oversold - the S&P Short-Range Oscillator is at -0.61% v. 0.6%

* This morning, yields are lower and crude oil prices (+$0.55) are higher - gold is climbing (+$7.70) and bitcoin rebounds (+2%)

* The U.S. dollar is much lower against the euro

* The market remains painted black (not red!):

I look inside myself
And see my heart is black
I see my red door
I must have it painted black

- Rolling Stones,Paint It Black

"Workin' on our night moves Trying to lose the awkward teenage blues Workin' on our night moves In the summertime And oh the wonder Felt the lightning And we waited on the thunder Waited on the thunder."

- Bob Seger, "Night Moves"

This daily Futures feature is like inside baseball. I try to show you and write about what I believe thoughtful hedge fund managers are looking at when they awake -- let's call it our normal routine -- setting the stage for their strategy for the day. The market is a complicated mosaic and the more info you have, the better trader and investor you will be!

The market (and money) never sleeps -- and neither do I, it appears! I have previously described the importance that overnight futures trading hold for me here. It is a guidepost to my strategy in the regular trading session. Moreover, the overnight/early morning futures hold opportunities as they are (1) inefficient, though liquid and (2) it seems fear and greed are often exaggerated outside the regular trading session. I frequently try to capture those efficiencies by trading actively both in the pre- and after-market sessions.

Here are brief observations I wanted to highlight and provide a summary of overnight price movements in various asset classes:

* Stock futures are broadly higher . S&P futures peaked at +21 and bottomed at +6. Nasdaq futures peaked at +134 and bottomed at +21. At 4:45 a.m. ET, S&P futures were +20 and Nasdaq futures were +129.

* Commodities are higher across-the-board. Brent crude is up +$0.40 to $79.93 after yesterday's reversal up.

* The S&P Short-Range Oscillator is now overbought -0.61% v. 0.6%.

* The VIX is up again to 12.54 (unchanged).

* The U.S. dollar is much lower against the yen, sterling and euro. 

* Treasury yields have reversed lower. The 2-Year Treasury yield is -3 basis points at 4.32% and the 10-Year is -3 bps to 4.109%. Over there, the yield on the 10-Year U.K. Gilt bond is also up +1 basis point.

* Overnight, the inversion of the 2s/10s Treasuries curve is down to -21. Real rates remain quite elevated; the 10-year is still about 1.75, again in real terms.

* Gold is up +$8.60 and is at $2,034.

* Bitcoin is +$700 to nearly $40k.

Here is a synopsis of some of my columns I believe were important, or in the event you were out for the day and/or did not read my Diary. The principal intent is to review the logic of my market moves and other factors:

The Most Important Read of the Year 

The Most Important Chart

But Earnings Are Great! (Not!!)

FOMO Is Alive and Well on FinTV

Geopolitical Fragmentation Will Likely Lead to Persistent and Sticky Inflation

Here were Tuesday's trades:

* Pfizer, Bristol-Myers Moves

After we undertook deeper research dives on Pfizer (PFE)  and Bristol-Myers (BMY)  over the last week, I have eliminated PFE and sold calls against BMY.

The fundamental cases just don't support much higher prices in either of the stocks.

Why?

From my perch, managing money effectively is time consumptive and entails a lot of primary research. By contrast, staring at the machine all day has little value-added to delivering good investment performance. 

I will once again be travelling to several research meetings with companies this afternoon. 

I will be out most of the afternoon. 

Posts will be sporadic.

Doomberg's Compressed For Time.

Another Online Used-Car Dealer Bites the Dust: Vroom, 3.5 Years after Red-Hot IPO, Shuts Down as Ally Suspends Credit Line

"All-time highs mean that there is no natural source of supply from profit takers"

- Brian Shannon

Bonus- Here are some great links: 

6 Things You Should Know About All Time Highs

% Of Time At All Time Highs

Peak in New Highs

Everything That Glitters

Wolf Street howls about D.R. Horton's EPS miss.

How investors failed to understand the cost of homebuilders' buydowns is remarkable to me. 

But, so are many elements of today's markets!