DAILY DIARY
Market Breadth Is Weak
* Despite the rally off of the lows...
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Until ... 2024
I am outta here early today for some family time.
Again, thanks for reading today and all year!
Enjoy the long Holiday weekend.
Be safe.
My Comment of the Day on OXY
* I am adding to OXY...
Dougie Kass
6 minutes ago
A large buyer is back in (OXY) .
Likely Warren.
A Happy New Year To All
"As we express our gratitude, we must never forget that the highest appreciation is not to utter words, but to live by them."
- John F. Kennedy
As we end the trading year today (and prepare for 2024) I am most grateful.
Gratitude is the ability to experience life as a gift. It liberates us from the prison of self-preoccupation.
And speaking of gratitude my heart is grateful to everyone for providing me with this forum in 2023 and the stage since, my gosh! ... for the last 27 years and since 1997 (when TheStreet's original suite of products were introduced).
I don't get it right all the time and I am always full of doubt -- but I work as hard as humanly possible (starting every morning at around 4 a.m.) to provide you all with value-added information by delivering my ideas and views and the wisdom of some of the brightest investors (many of which are my friends). Money is a serious subject to all of us, but I try to make my words interesting and more lively than a sell-side research report - with plenty of music and lyrics.
I try to buy top down (big picture views) with bottom up (individual company views) and deliberately explain what, why, how and when I am transacting in some of my actions in trading and investing at my hedge fund, Seabreeze Partners.
Unfortunately too many have been filled with tragedy this year and my thoughts and prayers are with always them.
I think constantly about our editor Teddy Cohen's unbearable loss, in particular.
So, let's look upward (literally and figuratively) -- recounting how fortunate we all are today.
I want to end this post by taking this opportunity to wish all of our subscribers, contributors, editors and Arena Group's management a Happy and Prosperous New Year.
Market Internals
At 10:40 am
* Including sector ETFs (which some have found helpful) at the bottom
- NYSE volume 94.2M shares, 43% below its one-month average
- Nasdaq volume 1.73B shares, 1% above its one-month average
- VIX index trading + 1.12% at 12.51
Breadth
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Biggest Movers
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Heat Map
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ETFs
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IWM Quick Profit
At $201.55, I took the quick $2 profit in my (IWM) trading short rental.
Added to IWM Short
From earlier:
Premarket Trading
* At 4:15 AM...
* I don't expect a broadening out to continue
I took a short term trading short rental in (IWM) at $204.39.
Position: Short IWM (VS)
BY DOUG KASSDEC 29, 2023 5:55 AM EST
Selected Premarket Movers
Upside
- (UNH) +0.5% agreement to sell its Brazilian unit; confirms prior 2024 adjusted EPS outlook
-ARM +1.5% next gen surface pro
- (RLX) extends share repurchase program
- (ADTX) +50% momentum
- (FSR) +11% operations update
- (BSX) +1% initiates AVANT GUARD clinical trial
- (BGC) +3% guides to high end
Downside
- (UBER) -1% downgrade
- (LYFT) -2% downgrade
- (MBOT) -25% secondary
- (FBIO) -16% secondary
- (JBL) -0.5% selling Brazil operations
Most Active ETFs Premarket
* This is an interesting and useful table...
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More Night Moves: A Detailed Look at Overnight Futures and Why/What Markets Are Moving
* On the last day of the trading year we celebrate endings - for they precede new beginnings
* Stock futures traded in a narrow range overnight - with a positive bias
* We begin the day in a deep overbought - the S&P Short-Range Oscillator remains overbought at 6.16%
*This morning both crude oil prices and bond yields are higher
* The real economy is eroding as valuations climb:
Baby's on the cell phone, calling from a tanning bed
Hit the mall, got a dress, nails done, hair did
Running through my money like a water through a faucet
Well, so dry you can here those dollars
Drip drop, drip drop, drip drop, drip drop
Payin' them bills sure make a man thirsty
Need a little neon, time to get a drink on
Friday can't come fast enough
- Rascal Flatts, Friday
"The stock market will do whatever it has to do to embarrass the greatest people to the greatest extent possible."
- Wally Deemer
"Workin' on our night moves Trying to lose the awkward teenage blues Workin' on our night moves In the summertime And oh the wonder Felt the lightning And we waited on the thunder Waited on the thunder."
- Bob Seger, "Night Moves"
This daily Futures feature is like inside baseball. I try to show you and write about what I believe thoughtful hedge fund managers are looking at when they awake -- let's call it our normal routine -- setting the stage for their strategy for the day. The market is a complicated mosaic and the more info you have, the better trader and investor you will be!
The market (and money) never sleeps -- and neither do I, it appears! I have previously described the importance that overnight futures trading hold for me here. It is a guidepost to my strategy in the regular trading session. Moreover, the overnight/early morning futures hold opportunities as they are (1) inefficient, though liquid and (2) it seems fear and greed are often exaggerated outside the regular trading session. I frequently try to capture those efficiencies by trading actively both in the pre- and after-market sessions.
Here are brief observations I wanted to highlight and provide a summary of overnight price movements in various asset classes:
* Stock futures rebounded modestly throughout most of the overnight session with Nasdaq stronger than the S&P. Again the range was remarkably narrow. S&P futures peaked at +11 and bottomed at -1. Nasdaq futures peaked at +41 and bottomed at -7. At 5:05 a.m. ET, S&P futures were +2 and Nasdaq futures were +17.
* Commodities are mostly lower. Brent crude is +$0.60 to $77.76.
* The S&P Short-Range Oscillator remains largely overbought at 6.16% v. 8.17%
* The VIX is at a lowly 12.57 (+0.10).
* The U.S. dollar is stronger against the yen, sterling and euro.
* Treasury yields are a bit higher overnight; as I've mentioned, we may be at the point that lower rates will hurt equities (we will see)! The 2-Year Treasury yield is +2 bps at 4.295% and the 10-Year is +4 basis points at 3.885%. The long bond is yielding 4.044% (+6 bps). Over there, the yield on the 10-Year U.K. Gilt bond is +9 basis points - bringing the two day rise in yields to almost twenty basis points.
* Overnight, the inversion of the 2s/10s Treasuries curve is steady at -42. Real rates remain quite elevated; the 10-year is still about 1.5 (again in real terms).
* Gold is down -$9.10 at $2,074 after the recent spate of volatility.
* Bitcoin is +$170 and at the door of $42.7k.
Here is a synopsis of some of my columns I believe were important, or in the event you were out for the day and/or did not read my Diary. The principal intent is to review the logic of my market moves and other factors:
Where's The Beef? (EPS revisions lower as stock prices climb in The Great Valuation Reset)
"Its Not Fomo" (I call BS!)
Why I Called It A Day (Early)
Here were yesterday's trades:
* Initiated a trading short rental in JPMorgan (JPM) .
* Adding to Big Pharma
* Added to (LOPE) short.
* New short (COF) ($131.50)
Charting The Technicals
"Allied to the general pattern of market movements is the general pattern of speculative thinking."
- Benjamin Graham
__________
Bonus Links
* Top Charts of 2023
* A Landing Pad For Interest Rates
Another Valuable Tidbit From "Jazzy" Jeff Hirsch
* This is an exceptionally interesting daily calendar on the history of price action during the month of January
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January 2024 Almanac, Vital Stats and Calendar: Softer in Election Years
From "Jazzy" Jeff Hirsch:
January has quite a reputation on Wall Street as an influx of cash from yearend bonuses and annual allocations has historically propelled stocks higher. January ranks #1 for NASDAQ (since 1971), but sixth on the S&P 500 and DJIA since 1950. January is the last month of the best three-consecutive-month span and holds a full docket of indicators and seasonalities.
DJIA and S&P rankings did slip from 2000 to 2022 as both indices suffered losses in thirteen of those twenty-four Januarys with three in a row in: 2008 to 2010, 2014 to 2016 and then again from 2020 to 2022. January 2009 has the dubious honor of being the worst January on record for DJIA (-8.8%) and S&P 500 (-8.6%) since 1901 and 1930 respectively. Covid-19 spoiled January in 2020 & 2021 as DJIA, S&P 500, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 all suffered declines in 2020. In 2021, DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 declined. In 2022 surging inflation, that reached multi-decade highs, stoked fears of substantially higher interest rates in January. Fears were ultimately validated as a bear market ensued.
Recent January weakness can be seen in the following chart. January has on average started out positive with DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and 2000 all logging gains in the first half of the month, but weakness then creeps in. From around the seventh trading day to the end of the month declines have prevailed over the last 21-years.
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In election years, Januarys have been weaker. DJIA and S&P 500 slip to number #8 and DJIA average performance dips negative. NASDAQ slips to #4, but average performance remains respectable at 1.7%. Russell 2000's average performance of 0.8% is the result of all five advancing Januarys gaining over 4% which offsets the losses in six other election-year Januarys.
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On pages 112 and 114 of the Stock Trader's Almanac 2024 we illustrate that the January Effect, where small caps begin to outperform large caps, actually tends to start in mid-December. Historically, the majority of small-cap outperformance is normally done by mid-March, but strength can last until mid-June.
The first indicator to register a reading in January is the Santa Claus Rally. The seven-trading-day period began on the open on December 22 and ends with the close of trading on January 3. Historically, the S&P 500 posts an average gain of 1.3%. The failure of stocks to rally during this time has tended to precede bear markets or times when stocks could be purchased at lower prices later in the New Year.
On January 8, our First Five Days "Early Warning" System will be in. In election years this indicator has a respectable record. In the last 18 election years 15 full years followed the direction of the First Five Days. The full-month January Barometer has a softer record in election years with 12 of the last 18 full years following January's direction.
Our flagship indicator the January Barometer, created by Yale Hirsch in 1972, simply states that as the S&P goes in January so goes the year. It came into effect in 1934 after the Twentieth Amendment moved the date that new Congresses convene to the first week of January and Presidential inaugurations to January 20.
The long-term record has been solid, an 83.6% accuracy rate, with 12 major errors since 1950. Major errors occurred in the secular bear market years of 1966, 1968, 1982, 2001, 2003, 2009, 2010 and 2014 and again in 2016 as a mini bear came to an end. The tenth major error was in 2018 as a hawkish Fed continued to hike rates even as economic growth slowed and longer-term interest rates fell. Historical levels of support from the Fed and Federal governments in 2020 quickly undid the market damage caused by the Covid induced economic shutdown. 2021 was the 12th major error for the January Barometer as covid-related stimulus and spending propelled the market higher. The market's position on the last trading day of January will give us a better read on the year to come.
When all three of these indicators agree it has been prudent to heed their call. Since 1950, when all three January Indicators, Santa Claus Rally, First Five Days and the full-month January Barometer are up, S&P 500 is up 90.3% of the time (28 out of 31 years) with an average gain of 17.5%. When one or more of the Trifecta is down the year is up 59.5% of the time (25 of 42) with a paltry average gain of 2.9%.
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Bullish Sentiment at an Extreme?
"Nothing like price to change sentiment."
- The Divine Ms M
Premarket Trading
* At 4:15 AM...
* I don't expect a broadening out to continue
I took a short term trading short rental in (IWM) at $204.39.