Well, first they bought them. Then they kind of stopped where they were for about four hours. That was followed by a sharp selloff that was immediately followed by a sharp rally.

Hey -- algos have got to eat.

After that, equity markets moseyed on into the close. It felt as quiet as it was over the final 60 to 75 minutes of the regular session. Maybe that's because the bond market closed its regular session at 2 p.m. ET.

At a glance, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both closed up small. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 0.75% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.21%, despite Wednesday's selloff that looks like a one-off right now. I don't see much in the equity index world that moved much more than 0.5%. Nine of the 11 S&P sector SPDR ETFs shaded into the green for the day, but nothing really moved. Six of the eleven funds moved less than 0.39% for the session.

The U.S. Dollar Index fell to 101.14. as WTI crude fell slightly to $73.61 per barrel. Gold was up, while silver and bitcoin were lower. Treasuries went out where they spent most of the day, with the 10-Year Note yielding 3.9% and the Two-Year paying 4.33%. Nike (NKE) was the worst performing member of the Dow Industrials and the S&P 500, down 11.8% for the session. Moderna (MRNA) gained 4% on the day.

So, it is now that we depart for a few days. To those who believe what I believe, Merry Christmas, to those who celebrate, Happy Kwanzaa, to those who are done celebrating, I hope you had a nice Hanukkah. To everyone else, not already covered, I hope you have a very nice three day weekend.

Until we meet again, Dougie's crew of loyal Diary members. It's always a pleasure to be Earl Morrall to Dougie's John Unitas, but I'd still rather he was feeling well.

Good night.

Sarge

Q.) Only nine times since integration (1947) has an MLB ballplayer 40 years of age or older hit five or more triples in a season. Name them. Hint... the record for the 40+ age group is 12 and it happened this century.

A.)

12 triples

Steve Finey (SFG), age 41 (2006)

6 triples

Kenny Lofton (CLE, TEX) age 40 (2007)

Ichiro Suzuki (MIA) age 41 (2015)

5 triples

Luke Appling (CHW), age 42 (1949)

Willie Mays (SFG) age 40 (1971)

Paul Molitor (MIN), age 41 (1998)

Pete Rose (PHI), age 40 (1981)

Enos Slaughter (KCA, NYY) age 40 (1956)

Ichiro Suzuki (MIA) age 42 (2016)

Palantir Technologies (PLTR)

- Trades at 58-times forward looking earnings

- Last quarter, adjusted EPS of $0.07, GAAP EPS of $0.03, beat by a couple of pennies. Revenue of $558.2M, also a beat.

- Current quarter ... expecting Adjusted EPS of $0.08, GAAP EPS of $0.03, up from an adjusted $0.04, revenue of $603M (+19%).

- Data analytics firm that has taken a huge lead in the development and integration of generative AI into Big Data. This will put many government agencies and  more commercial organizations in the position of having to rely on PLTR. 

Cash Flows (trailing 12 months)

- Operating Cash Flow of $499M

- CapEx of $15.2M

- Free Cash Flow of $483.8M ($0.22 per share)

Balance Sheet

- Cash: $3.284B

- Current Assets: $3.089B

- Current Liabilities: $689M

- Current Ratio: 5.53 (stunningly strong)

- Long-Term Debt: zero. 

- Net Debt-Load is negative. Other people owe them money. 

Looks like a fairly cut and dried cup with handle pattern here. Relative strength is neutral and the daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence oscillator is actually bearish looking as that cup pattern has just added the handle. The stock did just surrender its 50 day SMA, which would be a sign of caution for a short-term trader. 

Target Price: $27

Pivot: $22

Add: down to 200-day SMA ($14)

Panic: Break of 200-day SMA.

Only nine times since integration (1947) has an MLB ballplayer 40 years of age or older hit five or more triples in a season. Name them. Hint... the record for the 40+ age group is 12 and it happened this century.

The article has been published at Real Money Pro...:

My Stock Pick for 2024 Might Surprise You, but Not When You Learn Why - TheStreet's Real Money Pro

From the Atlanta Fed: "The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.3 percent on December 22, down from 2.7 percent on December 19. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth decreased from 3.0 percent to 2.4 percent."

Microsoft (MSFT)

- Trades at 33 times forward looking earnings

- Last quarter... GAAP EPS of $2.99, beat by 29 cents. Revenue of $56.52B, beat by $2B.

- Current quarter... Expecting GAAP EPS of $2.75, up from $2.32, revenue of $61.1B (+16%).

- Expecting broad business adoption of the Copilot AI Office add-on. Expecting a rebound in PC sales that finally returned to growth last quarter. Expecting Azure with the implementation of AI and LLMs to continue to take share in the cloud. 

Cash Flows (trailing 12 months) 

- Operating Cash Flow of $94.967B

- CapEx of $31.741B

- Free Cash Flow of $63,226B ($8.50 per share) 

Balance Sheet

- Cash: $143.945B

- Current Assets: $207.586B

- Current Liabilities: $124.792B

- Current Ratio: 1.66

- Total Debt: $67.808B, of which $25.808B must be dealt with in the coming twelve months.

View Chart »View in New Window »

Viewers will see that MSFT rose almost in a straight line in a northerly direction from last November into July. At that point the stock breaks the ascending price channel to the downside to consolidate. In doing so, a cup with handle pattern develops with a $384 pivot. Here too, relative strength is strong but not overbought.

We are dealing with a negative looking daily MACD (moving average convergence/divergence), but that happens with MSFT every month or two and would only frighten someone with a shorter timeline. 

Target Price: $460

Pivot: $384

Add: Down to the 50-day EMA (exponential moving average) ($358)

Panic: On a break of the 200-day SMA (simple moving average) ($326)

Your pal is about to appear at about 11:15 am ET, I think, at the Schwab Network, formerly the TD Ameritrade Network, with Nicole Petallides and Ben Lichtenstein.

Talking stocks.

Be back as soon as I can.

Alphabet (GOOGL)

- Trades at 20 times forward looking earnings

- Last quarter... GAAP EPS of $1.55, beat by 10 cents. Revenue of $76.69B, beat by $1B.

- Current quarter... Expecting GAAP EPS of $1.60, up from $1.05, revenue of $85.1B (+12%).

- Company plans to restructure its ad-sales team (responsible for 78% of all revenue) to better integrate and monetize the firm's generative AI capabilities.

Cash Flows (trailing 12 months) 

- Operating Cash Flow of $106.445B

- CapEx of $28.827B

- Free Cash Flow of $77.618B ($2.04 per share) 

Balance Sheet

- Cash: $119.925B

- Current Assets: $176.31B

- Current Liabilities: $86.295B

- Current Ratio: 2.04

- Long-Term Debt: $11.867B

View Chart »View in New Window »

Viewers will see a series of higher lows that ran all year long coupled with a series of higher highs than ran into September. At that point, resistance flat-lined and what developed was an ascending triangle pattern with a $141 pivot. Relative strength is strong, but not overbought, as the daily MACD (moving average convergence divergence) appears to have just experienced a bullish crossover of the 26 day EMA (exponential moving average) by the 12 day EMA with the 9 day EMA in positive territory. 

Target Price: $169

Pivot: $141

Add: Down to the 50-day EMA ($133)

Panic: On a break of the 200-day SMA (simple moving average)($123)

November Income & Outlays

- Personal Income...    +0.4% m/m, accelerating from 0.3%, and on consensus.

- Personal Spending... +0.2% m/m, accelerating from 0.1%, and below consensus for 0.3%. 

November Inflation

PCE.............. -0.1% m/m, deflating from 0.0%, and below consensus for 0.0%.

PCE.............. +2.6% y/y, decelerating from 2.9% and below consensus for 2.8%.

Core PCE...... +0.1% m/m, flat from October, and below consensus for 0.2%.

Core PCE...... +3.2%. decelerating from 3.4%, and below consensus for 3.3%. 

The income and spending numbers are good for the economy as the PCE prints are disinflationary. Should be seen as dovish overall and playing along with the "goldilocks" scenario that I think we are coming out of more than going into. Remember "goldilocks" is an environment where growth accelerates and inflation decelerates. We have definitely had that.

Should growth slow and inflation continue to ebb, that's how recessions are born. That said, should growth slow as acceleration accelerates (which is what a weaker dollar will lead to), then we'll enter a period of stagflation, which is not that much more fun than a recession.

The Atlanta Fed will update their GDPNow model for the current quarter after November New Home sales cross the tape at 10 am ET.

Durable Goods Orders..... +5.4% m/m, up from -5.1%, and above consensus for +2.2%.

ex-Transportation........... +0.5% m/m, up from -0.3% and above consensus for +0.1%.

ex-Defense.................... +6.5% m/m, up from -6.4%, and above consensus for +2.1%.

Core Capital Goods......... +0.8% m/m, up from -0.6%, and above consensus for +0.2%.

The most important line here is the bottom line. Core Capital Goods are a non-transportation proxy for industrial business spending. The fact that the result here beat expectations is perhaps less important than the fact that this item returned to growth after two successive months and four of five spent in contraction. This is unexpected good news for the economy.

So, Yamamoto signs with the LA Dodgers for $325M over 12 years, nothing deferred.

If you know me, then you know that I'm a Mets fan. My oldest son is a Yankees fan. We both lose. Boohoo !!

Maybe he'll go 6-13 this year with a 5.50 ERA.

S&P Futures: Flat vs. Fair Value

Nasdaq Futures: -12 vs. Fair Value

US Ten Year Note: 3.85%

US Two Year Note: 4.33%

Gold: +1.25$

Silver: +0.81%

Bitcoin: -1.02%

WTI Crude: +0.57%

Did not expect to be here this morning, but here is where I am. Your best pal Dougie Kass is out today, and I know he is irreplaceable, but someone has to be the back-up QB, and I'll try to be more like Earl Morrall and less like Al Woodall. I know, Hanukkah is over. It's almost Christmas. It's almost Kwanzaa. For now, all of that is neither there nor there. Whatever it is that you celebrate, if you do celebrate, whatever it is that you do believe, if you do believe, there is a job to do and we're going to have to do it.

If you work either for a P/L or on commission, this is a tough time of year. We face only eight business days over the next two weeks. Those with a salary and/or a bonus, love market holidays. Those of us that only eat what we kill, if we kill, kind of hate being off. Being off from work runs with many of the same costs that any other day does, but with no chance to offset those costs through the generation of revenue. It is for that reason that those working on Wall Street and probably auto salespersons as well have for ages said "Short weeks are always long."

The implication there has nothing to do with the passage of time, but everything to do with the average amount that an earner must generate per day in order to make sure that their families do not feel the negative impact of having fewer days to work with. To simplify, if a trader needs to generate $1,000 a week to pay their bills, that comes to $200 per day. During a four day work week, that number rises to $250.

Now throw in a bad day early in the week, and suddenly the number rises significantly and the pressure is on. I once went three consecutive years without taking a business day off. I once went eleven consecutive years without calling in sick. This life is not for everyone, but it's the life we chose. The freedom of being your own boss does have its benefits. Can not lie about that. 

So, rock on my faithful legions. It's the holiday season. Enjoy that cup of coffee. Then push-ups and sit-ups or whatever you can do, but get that blood moving and get that mind crackin'. 

Up in the morning 'fore the rising sun

Gonna run all day til' the runnin's done.

Out on the road in the pourin' rain

Gotta keep on runnin', don't mind the pain.

See me comin' better step aside

Some men didn't, and their mommas cried.

Oh yeah.

Get some

Gimme some

All Right.

Rock on.