DAILY DIARY
Market Ups and Downs
* High Nasdaq volume
* Weak breadth
- New York Stock Exchange was volume 426 million shares, flat to its one-month average.
- Nasdaq volume was 5.22 billion shares, 39% above its one-month average
NYSE Highs : 30 Lows : 14
Nasdaq: Highs : 55 Lows : 54
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Why He Sold Google
* I remain short...
More Sober Observations From Liz Ann
Mea Culpa
I failed to mention that I recently reshorted Starbucks (SBUX) .
My mistake.
It is a part of my emerging slowing of the consumer trade.
IWM Makes a Day Low
Earlier I noted my short of iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) .
This ETF was the first Index to make a day low:
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The Consumer Recession/Slowdown Explained by American Express
(AXP) is -$5 today after the following statement:
"Billings in October was not as strong as Q3. Billings in November in line with Q3 levels."
Late Morning Musings From Sir Arthur Cashin
At the opening bell, it looked like we were going to do an exact duplicate of yesterday's morning action.
In both cases, the Dow and the Nasdaq were smartly lower in pre-opening trading and then yesterday, almost immediately after the opening, they nearly cut the losses in half. Today, the Dow failed to do that and did not move much off the lows, despite the yield on the ten-year moving smartly lower, which in recent days, would have brought at least some speculative buying into the market. The Nasdaq did cut its losses, but not in the same dramatic fashion as we saw in yesterday's action.
It would appear that the jury is still out. We will keep an eye on the Dow and see if they can come off the lows and begin to imitate yesterday's action.
We will continue to watch the yields and see if it is a trial separation with equities or will the lower yields begin to have an important impact on trading.
IN THE BRIEF FEW MOMENTS THAT IT HAS TAKEN WONDER WOMAN TO TYPE UP THIS EMAIL, THE DOW DECIDED TO CHANGE COURSE AND CUT ITS LOSSES IN HALF, ONLY TO APPARENTLY STALL. NOW WE HAVE TO WATCH IT AND SEE IF IT MAKES A LOWER LOW.
For now, it looks like the normally insightful Mr. DeMark might be on the mark, if you forgive the pun, as the Dow and Nasdaq do look a little bit like they are possibly putting in a mild topping process.
The headlines continue to bubble up out of the Middle East with some talk about flooding the hundreds of tunnels under Gaza City, but the concern is some of those tunnels may be housing hostages and the PR feedback to that would put Israel even further under the gun as their PR campaign seems to be eluding their grasp.
I would, I think, watch the headlines for some possible naval action. So many vessels in the Red Sea area. If there is a strike by missiles, that could be quite disruptive through the market. It always has the possibility that bad news could bring a flight to safety. You had best bring your decoder ring as we go through the afternoon.
Watch the geopolitical headlines and please stay safe.
Arthur
My Tweet of the Day (Part Deux)
The Book of Boockvar
From Peter:
The ISM services index for November was 52.7, up from 51.8 in October and that was a touch above the estimate of 52.3 and vs 53.6 in September and 54.5 in August. The 6 month average is now 53.2.
New orders were unchanged at 55.5 while backlogs fell back below 50 at 49.1 from 50.9. Inventories rebounded by 5.9 pts after a 4.7 pt drop in October. Employment remained around 50, though up .5 pt to 50.7. Export orders, where only a few service businesses have them, was up 4.8 pts but after plunging by 14.9 pts in October. Supplier deliveries were slightly below 50 while the prices paid was too at 58.3 vs 58.6.
Breadth improved as 15 of 18 industries saw growth while 3 saw a contraction. That compares with 12 saw gains in October and 5 reported a contraction. It's important though to look under the hood too as the number of industries seeing a rise in new orders fell to the lowest since May while those that said 'inventories are too high' rose to the highest since April. And, the number of industries seeing a rise in 'business activity' fell to the lowest since May.
The bottom line from the ISM was this, "The services sector had a slight uptick in growth in November, attributed to the increase in business activity and slight employment growth. Respondents' comments vary by both company and industry. There is continuing concern about inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical events. Rising labor costs and labor constraints remain employment related challenges."
Compare these comments with what S&P Global said in their services PMI press release today that saw a final print of 50.8, just above the breakeven line. "The latest PMI data point to a further cooling of inflation pressures, but the surveys also signal only modest economic growth and near stagnant employment, with the risk of the expansion losing further momentum as we head towards 2024."
Here's more, "While service sector businesses continued to report further output gains in November, growth remains considerably weaker than seen earlier in the year, and forward looking indicators point to growth slowing in the months ahead."
Of note on the labor market and ahead of the November jobs data in the coming days, "Firms providing both goods and services have become increasingly concerned about excessive staffing levels in the face of weakened demand, resulting in the smallest overall jobs gain recorded by the survey since the early pandemic lockdowns of 2020."
Bottom line, reading both reports it seems we're seeing very modest service growth in Q4 at best, on top of a manufacturing recession, that squares with the current 1.2% Atlanta Fed GDP estimate quarter to date, though what these indices said in Q3 didn't equate to a 5.2% GDP growth rate for that quarter.
ISM Services
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Employment
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On the jobs front and the growing evidence of the slowdown in hiring, the number of job openings in October, thus somewhat dated, fell to 8.73mm, the least since March 2021. The hiring rate fell to 3.7% which matches the lowest since Covid shutdowns and compares with 3.9% in February 2020. The quits rate held at 2.3% for a 4th straight month, matching the lowest since September 2020 and was also 2.3% in February 2020.
Industry wise, there were notable reductions in job openings in retail and wholesale trade and in financial activities which includes finance/insurance and real estate/lending. There was also a sharp drop in job openings in healthcare but I can't explain that. Job openings for leisure/hospitality fell to the least since June.
Bottom line, the pace of hiring's is clearly slowing.
Job Openings
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Hiring Rate
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Quit Rate
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Market Internals
At 10:38 am:
It is interesting to note that for the second day in a row the Nasdaq volume is well above the one-month average:
- NYSE volume 140M shares, 3% below its one-month average
- Nasdaq volume 1.72B shares, 32% above its one-month average
Breadth
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Biggest Movers
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Heat Map
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Bond Market Update
* The yield on the two year note is -5 bps to 4.606%.
* The yield on the ten year note is -10 bps to 4.188%.
* The yield on the thirty year bond is -10 bps to 4.339%.
Sir Arthur Holds Court
From Arthur Cashin:
In Monday's session, Wall Street bulls did not exactly emulate Napoleon Bonaparte. They did not crown themselves king, instead they wound up crowning the small and medium stocks in the person of the Russell Index, but that was not evident exactly on the opening bell. In fact, it was not certain if anyone would wind up getting crowned. We alluded to a bit of that in this late morning update:
Late Morning Update 12.04.23 - Despite Friday's partial breakout of the Russell with new money for the new month and thanks to that presumed buy program, things are retrenching a bit here. The esteemed technical strategist, Tom DeMark, reportedly has told clients there is a chance that the rally can stall here, and that the Dow and the tech stocks might put in a short-term top here. So far, it is possible, and we have to wait for a few things to follow-up.
Also, others have been talking about resistance at 4600 and so far, that seems to be holding up. I think the market will continue to check its own technicals and try to see where they sense the chance for exposure continues. Some observers think that the yield on the ten-year being back above 4.25% is adding pressure to equities. That might be so, but my slide rule was looking for something up about where we are now - - 4.28%/4.30%. So, we will see how the day progresses. The Regional Bank Index seems to be perking up, even though the Russell is not following through on its Friday rally. We need to get out the compass and protractor and start to remeasure, but I will buy into the idea of a yield above 4.27% and we will see where they go from here. Watch the geopolitical headlines and please stay safe.
As we ground through the day, that kind of indecisiveness seemed to linger in the market, although retrospectively, as I went back and reviewed the short-term charts of the Russell at the end of the day, I should have more clearly recognized that it was, in fact, reasserting itself after its terrific performance in Friday's first day of the new month. We did notice that it seemed to be emerging a little bit further and commented on that in this midafternoon recap:
12.04.23 MID-AFTERNOON RECAP - As we moved past mid-day, the bulls began to circle the wagons and somewhat interestingly, one of the vehicles they were using were the medium and small caps that populate the Russell. If we were saying that right before the opening that would make some sense, but, in fact, the Russell was weak at and around the opening bell. But they seemed to have decided to use that as a restoration vehicle for the bulls and it is interesting because they did not get a great deal of relief from the yields, particularly on the ten-year. So, let's see what the bulls can do to restore their credibility as the afternoon wears on. The geopolitical headlines remain a little jumpy, but there is no sign of a flight to safety, which would have given the bulls a bit of a break, but with all the geopolitical stuff going on, please remember to stay safe.
In retrospect, as I say, I should have recognized the Russell more quickly and more evidently. I think the performance on Friday was so good and that it broke out above technical resistance that I just had assumed that when we started again after the weekend, we would see the Russell come roaring out of the box, leading the parade with all the drum majors and majorettes passing behind it. That was not the case, but we have to sit down and think a little bit harder as to how we missed it emerging.
The action was a bit vague, but after doing this for over six decades, it should have been a bit more evident. Nevertheless, they held them together. The bulls remained in control right up till the final hour and into the closing bell and, by the time everyone was headed to the watering holes, it was clear that the Russell had been a very successful vehicle for the Wall Street bulls and again, in retrospect, the action that looked like an apparent buy program in the Russell, was a bit more solid than even we were thinking. It again helped the bulls in adding to their performance on Monday and, it also continued that broadening of the market.
As you recall, the Russell is populated by a lot of those small and medium caps and so, the same dollar amount allows you to buy into more stocks than in the Dow and even the S&P 500. So, while it was not as brilliant as Friday's performance, it was a pretty solid session for the bulls and we will look to see if in the coming days small and medium caps as centered in the Russell continue to be a primary vehicle for the bulls and if the bulls themselves continue to transfer money into that somewhat long neglected group and as we think a little further on that, let's now pause as we usually do to see what our foreign cousins decided when they looked at the Monday action in New York.
As I did say, the prominence of both the bulls and the Russell was not immediately evident and since the European markets were either closed all during our session as in Asia or for almost half the session as in Europe, we will see if they pick up on it. So, for now, let's look at their numbers.
Overnight, global equity markets are clearly showing their individuality with somewhat of a lean toward the downside. In Asia, Japan closed down the equivalent of about 450 points in the Dow. Hong Kong closed down about 500 Dow points. I am having trouble with my crystal set so, the Mainland China data is not easily verified. We will keep working on that. India, again, is the odd man out, closing up about the equivalent of 200 points in the Dow. Over in Europe, again it is a mixed picture.
As we go to press, London is down about 160 points in the Dow. Paris, on the other hand, is up about 50 Dow points and Frankfurt is also up maybe 45 Dow points. We will keep checking on the Mainland China data. I do not want to lead you in the wrong direction. The economic calendar for today is reasonably light. We will get the PMI Composite and then, after that, the ISM Services Index and about the same time, we will get the JOLTS data and we may get some academic speakers on the financial system and its current status, but again, we are having trouble verifying that. The geopolitical situation remains somewhat fractious. It looks like further military action is increasing in Gaza and the sea lanes around the Red Sea are also focusing traders' attention on that area. So, given all that, stay close to the newsticker. Keep your seatbelt fastened. Stay nimble and alert.
Watch the yields on the ten-year, up around 4.30% might put some mild pressure on U.S. equities and, you will recall that we commented yesterday that the noted-technical strategist, Tom DeMark had indicated that some of his work saw a chance of the Dow and the Nasdaq topping out right about there, but it will take more than one and a half days to certainly prove that out.
We will try to get our equipment adjusted to get more reliable data coming in on the numbers. So, given the geopolitical situation, please stay alert and please stay safe.
My Tweet of the Day
Boockvar Takes a Trip Overseas
From Peter:
There is not much going on domestically this morning ahead of the US ISM report at 10 am EST and I'll just go over the goings on overseas.
Tokyo said its core/core November CPI came in at up 3.6% y/o/y, one tenth less than expected and down from 3.8% in October. This is always a leading indicator for the national report out in a few weeks. Prices ex energy were up 2.3%, also one tenth under the forecast. The yen initially sold off on the report, as it would likely push out even further when the BoJ would exit NIRP but is now up slightly up on the day. JGB yields are a touch lower as is the 10 yr inflation breakeven which is down by 1.3 bps to 1.32%, though still near the highest level in 9 1/2 years.
As we look to see how the macro unfolds in 2024, what the BoJ does with negative rate policy and its yield curve will again be key factors, just as it was in 2023 when they widened YCC. Same with Japan's appetite for US Treasuries, and whether it continues to shrink, notwithstanding the slight rise this year. I still attribute the 10 yr global yield spike beginning in late July was mostly due to the BoJ policy shift. Japanese stocks remain attractive and we are still long as we are on other Asian markets as well.
10 yr Japan Inflation Breakeven
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After the BoK did nothing last week with policy, South Korea reported its November CPI and it rose 3.0% y/o/y vs the estimate of 3.1% and down from 3.2% last month. The theme globally now is that outside of the BoJ, all central banks are on hold, though remain intent on shrinking their balance sheets for those that did so much to expand them over the last bunch of years.
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark rate unchanged at 4.35% as expected. From here, data dependency was their main theme in their prepared statement and "Holding the cash rate steady at this meeting will allow time to assess the impact of the increases in interest rates on demand, inflation and the labor market." Also, "The Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome." As this was a rather uneventful meeting and they are not hiking again most likely, the Aussie$ is lower and yields are too. The ASX traded lower along with other global markets.
China's private sector services PMI from Caixin for November rose to 51.5 from 50.4 and that was 1 pt above expectations. Caixin said the improvement was due to "a stronger upturn in total new business midway through the final quarter of the year" as the "market continued to heal." Also, "Optimism in the services industry rebounded. The downward trend of the gauge for service providers' expectations about future activity came to an end after four consecutive months of decline."
To add to this and repeating what the China Beige Book said last week, "On the services side, the three 'revenge spending' sub sectors we've focused on this year - travel, hospitality, and restaurants - all saw a rebound." We continue to be long Macau casino stocks and other travel related names in order to play this theme.
Hong Kong's PMI for November got back to 50 at 50.1 from 48.9. S&P Global referred to this as a sign of stabilization.
We also like Singapore still and its PMI rose to 55.8 from 53.7. S&P Global said "Central to the latest improvement in conditions was stronger demand growth. New business expanded at the fastest rate in six months, buoyed by marketing activities and rosier underlying demand conditions. Foreign demand, while still subdued, deteriorated at the softest pace since June and one that was modest overall." Also, "Forward looking indicators including the backlogs of work and future output indices also hinted at sustained growth heading into 2024."
India's services PMI slipped but still remained well above 50 at 56.9 from 58.4. While there is certainly well deserved attention to the slowing growth rates in China, India is picking up some of that slack with its very exciting growth and modernization. We remain bullish on India.
The November Eurozone services PMI was revised up by .5 pt to 48.7 from its initial print seen a few weeks ago but still is below 50 for a 4th straight month. Inflation is mostly being seen on the services side still, as it always is. "Inflation remained persistent across the Eurozone services economy in November, with rates of increase in both input costs and output prices edging higher on the month." Also of note, business confidence resumed the downward trend seen throughout most of 2023 so far. Firms' growth expectations for the year ahead were weak by historical standards."
Bottom line, for all intents and purposes, the Eurozone economy is in a recession, albeit modestly. Regionally, "Spain's service sector maintained a moderate growth pace, France witnessed a rapid contraction, while Germany and Italy find themselves in the realm of stagnation. The contrasting dynamics show France, the 2nd largest economy, putting the biggest downer on the overall performance of the Eurozone's service sector." The French services PMI at 45.4 is below 50 for a 6th straight month.
The UK services PMI for November was revised up by .4 pt to 50.9 and that puts it back into expansion after 3 months below 50. Notwithstanding the gain, "survey respondents once again commented on a lack of willingness to spend among clients. Many firms noted that low levels of business and consumer confidence, alongside elevated borrowing costs, had constrained sales opportunities in November. Overseas markets continued to show resilience, with strengthening US demand often cited as a driver of increased new export orders."
Providing evidence that the BoE won't be cutting rates anytime soon in 2024 after likely being done hiking, S&P Global also said "Service providers indicated another sharp increase in their average cost burdens during November. The rate of inflation accelerated slightly on the month but was the 2nd lowest since March 2021. Rising operating expenses were mostly linked to higher staff wages and higher prices paid for essential business services." On the flip side, moderating raw material costs gave some relief.
Bottom line on the inflation story and I'll state this globally, inflation is NEVER transitory. It is always higher mostly driven by services with the cyclical variable being with goods that mostly see little price growth and many times deflation over time. The question for goods from here is whether something structural changed with Covid and all the government spending in response, outside of the always deflationary force of technology, that will lead to price gains in the years to come after the current slowdown runs its course.
Selected Premarket Movers
Upside
- (ALLR) +40% (early Phase 2 Stenoparib Data Indicates Clinical Benefit in Women with Advanced Ovarian Cancer Selected with DRP Companion Diagnostic)
- (TVTX) +17% (Completes Successful pre-NDA Meeting for FILSPARI in IgAN)
- (GTLB) +14% (earnings, guidance)
-ZFOX +12% (earnings, guidance)
- (CULP) +10% (earnings)
- (GIII) +9.7% (earnings, guidance)
- (JILL) +6.1% (earnings, guidance)
- (NIO) +4.1% (earnings, guidance)
- (SJM) +3.2% (earnings, guidance)
- (HOOD) +3.1% (provides Nov update)
- (LE) +2.9% (earnings, guidance)
- (ERIC) +2.7% (AT&T to accelerate open and interoperable Radio Access Networks (RAN) in the United States through new $14B 5-yr collaboration with Ericsson)
- (FERG) +2.4% (earnings, guidance)
- (HEPS) +2.1% (earnings, guidance)
- (VNDA) +2.1% (US FDA accepts NDA for Tradipitant for Treatment of Gastroparesis)
Downside
- (REPL) -44% (initial Primary Analysis Results from CERPASS clinical Trial DID NOT meet two primary endpoints)
- (DBI) -32% (earnings, guidance)
- (JOAN) -17% (earnings, guidance)
- (DAKT) -13% (earnings)
- (SPHR) -12% (files to sell $225M convertible senior note offering)
- (EVH) -7.1% (files to sell $350M of convertible senior 2029 notes)
- (NOK) -7.0% (expects Rev from AT&T in Mobile Networks will decrease over the next 2-3 years)
- (SWTX) -5.9% (prices upsized $275M stock offering at $29.00/shr)
- (IAS) -4.9% (prices 11.0M shares at $14.00/shr in ~$150M underwritten offering)
- (TTWO) -3.1% (Rockstar Games confirms Grand Theft Auto VI, coming 2025)
Tweet of the Day
The rise in auto inventories:
China Outlook
Speaking of a foundering China:
Charting the Technicals
"The market may be crazy, but that doesn't make you a psychiatrist."
- Meir Statman
Meshuganah Is Trump (Craziness Is Three-Fold in Yiddish)
God help us all...
The Bucks
Themes and Sectors
This table is a valuable resource for momentum-based short-term traders:
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More Night Moves: A Detailed Look at Overnight Futures and Why/What Markets Are Moving
* Was yesterday the first shot across the market's bow? Oh, come on, come on!
* Bullish investor sentiment remains at an extreme; the S&P Short-Range Oscillator is at 6.38% vs. 7.33%
* Downside risk likely dwarfs upside reward
"I want you to come on, come on, come on, come on and take it
Take another little piece of my heart now, baby (whoa, break it)
Break another little bit of my heart now, darling, yeah, yeah, yeah (whoa, have a)
Have another little piece of my heart now, baby
You know you got it if it makes you feel good
Oh, yes indeed"
- Janis Joplin and Big Brother and the Holding Company, "Piece of My Heart"
"The stock market will do whatever it has to do to embarrass the greatest people to the greatest extent possible." - Wally Deemer
"Workin' on our night moves Trying to lose the awkward teenage blues Workin' on our night moves In the summertime And oh the wonder Felt the lightning And we waited on the thunder Waited on the thunder."
- Bob Seger, "Night Moves"
This daily Futures feature is like inside baseball. I try to show you and write about what I believe thoughtful hedge fund managers are looking at when they awake -- let's call it our normal routine -- setting the stage for their strategy for the day. The market is a complicated mosaic and the more info you have, the better trader and investor you will be!
The market (and money) never sleeps -- and neither do I, it appears! I have previously described the importance that overnight futures trading hold for me here. It is a guidepost to my strategy in the regular trading session. Moreover, the overnight/early morning futures hold opportunities as they are (1) inefficient, though liquid and (2) it seems fear and greed are often exaggerated outside the regular trading session. I frequently try to capture those efficiencies by trading actively both in the pre- and after-market sessions.
Here are brief observations I wanted to highlight and provide a summary of overnight price movements in various asset classes:
* Stock futures were lower throughout most of the overnight session. S&P futures peaked at -3 and bottomed at -20. Nasdaq futures peaked at -1 and bottomed at -107. At 6:01 a.m. ET, S&P futures were -17 and Nasdaq futures were -96.
And...
* The S&P Short-Range Oscillator moved further to less overbought at 6.38% from 7.33%.
* The VIX is now at 13.38, a gain of +0.31.
* The U.S. dollar is modestly lower against the yen but slightly stronger vs. the euro and sterling.
* Treasury yields are a bit lower this morning. The 2-Year Treasury yield is -3 1/2 basis points at 4.627% and the 10-Year is -4 basis points at 4.243%. Over there, the yield on the 10-Year U.K. Gilt bond is -4 basis points.
* Overnight, the inversion of the 2s/10s Treasuries curve is unchanged at -37 basis points. Real rates remain quite elevated; the 10-year is over 2.18 in real terms.
* Commodities are mostly lower, though Brent crude is +$0.33 to $78.37.
And...
* Gold is unchanged at $2,042 after yesterday's and Sunday's late-night chaos.
* Bitcoin is pausing after a big climb, now -$50 to $41.7k
Here is a synopsis of some of my columns I believe were important, or in the event you were out for the day and/or did not read my Diary. The principal intent is to review the logic of my market moves and other factors:
Machines, Algos, Gold... Oh My!
Here were Monday's trades:
* Reduced (MSOS) and (GTBIF) on strength.
* 3 Adds
Added to (QQQ) short and to my longs in (JOE) and (OXY) this morning.
A Key Theme of My Rosie Podcast Yesterday
* In yesterday's podcast I quoted Alfred E. Neuman, Bob Farrell, Lee Cooperman, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett, Ben Graham, Rousseau, Voltaire and Grandma Koufax in explaining my ursine market view.
Investors are unjustifiably discounting a "Goldilocks Outlook."
Given the wide range of outcomes (economic, political, social, geopolitical, and market) there are no certainties in an uncertain world.
As an example, expressed below in a tweet by Mohamed El-Erian, one major concern we have is the foundering of China's economy -- remembering that China has been the engine of worldwide economic growth:
And from Hedgeye's Keith McCullough above.
Market participants have never been more leveraged and, arguably have never been as unconcerned with value and concerned with price (and price momentum).
As testimony to this, rarely discussed by strategists and market participants is the transformation of market structure (from active investors to passive investors, the proliferation of ODTE options (zero days to expiration), ETFs and quant strategies and products), which makes the market -- as it was in October 1987 -- vulnerable to non-economic influences.
My base case is that the global economic outlook is one of extended "slugflation" (slow economic growth and prickly inflation) -- which is, undeniably, not stock market friendly.
From The Street of Dreams
From JPMorgan:
US: Futs are weaker this morning as the Large-Cap Tech underperformance is set to continue. Bond yields are lower pre-mkt as is the USD. Cmdtys seeing a bid within Ags and Energy; metals underperforming on China weakness despite better than expected PMIs. Today's macro data focus is on JOLTS and ISM-Srvcs (52.3 consensus vs. 51.8 prior).
and...
EQUITY AND MACRO NARRATIVE: Yesterday was a quiet session characterized by covering/rotation and today appears to be more of the same. ISM, JOLTS, and NFP have the ability to shape the narrative with the Fed in a blackout window. With ISM-Srvcs in expansion (ISM-Mfg has been under 50 since the Oct 2022 print and has not prevented the US from growing above trend for YTD2023), NFP expected to see a rebound post-UAW, and CPI continuing to confirm the disinflationary trend we may see fundamental support into year-end. Further, the consumer remains supportive of the economy. One key will be positioning plus CTA/retail behavior. Midday yesterday, retail investors had ~1.9z worth of buying relative to their 1-month history at $1.2bn.
Oil Vey!
Late in the day Monday I meaningfully raised my energy exposure:
BY DOUG KASS DEC 4, 2023 11:15 AM EST
From 'The Little Chief'
Young Jerry Jordan makes the case that, unless the US economy goes into a deep recession, the charts on energy stocks show promise:
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Russell Moves Into Overbought Territory
The latest gewgaw, the Russell Index, has joined the overbought crowd:
My guess is that there is a short trading rental in here.
I am now short (IWM) at $186.70.
Howling About Economic Releases
Wolf Street howls about the validity of government economic releases.