One of the things I appreciate about the Daily Diary and Real Money is the constructive thoughts that are put forth by folks with real-world experience in the financial world. Be it traders, portfolio managers, hedge fund managers, and economists, they are sharing insights gained over years of experience.

That's one of the reasons why I tend to ignore much of the noise we find on social media platforms when it comes to investing. Despite the recent move by Twitter with verifying identities behind Twitter Blue, it can be a hype machine. Now don't get me wrong, there are some good folks spreading solid information and data, but there are also those that aren't. There are those like Liz Ann Sonders, the subject of today's Tweet of the Day here at the Diary who are putting out some great data that one can factor into their thinking, refining their worldview.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, we have folks like Andrew Parrish. Does it bother me that I believe Parrish, who founded broker gossip website AdvisorHUB, might be overhyping things to build a social media following? The answer to that is yes.

The moral of the story, as it were, is know who you are following, understand the value they add to the conversation and of course do your own homework.

That's why I like the folks at here at Real Money, Real Money Pro and TheStreet's premium services.

I know Doug has had his moments with Twitter in the past, but that's my rant on it at least for today.

And with that, I'll bid you adieu for today. Doug is back tomorrow, and hopefully I can play in this sandbox again before too long.

With 30 minutes until the end of today's trading, the S&P 500 is looking like it may go out near the highs of the day. 

We can chalk that up to the positive moves in Micron (MU) and lululemon (LULU) , but also an upbeat forecast from the National Retail Federation which sees 2023 retail sales rising 4%-6% vs. 2022.

The NRF also shared it sees GDP coming in around 1% this year, which is more than double the Fed's latest forecast of 0.4%. Still compared to the current 3.2% March quarter GDP figure from the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow Model, either that forecast is conservative or the much-discussed slowdown could be harsh.

That's why I'm anxious to see the new order data in next week's March PMI data from ISM and S&P Global (SPGI) .

I'm back from taping this week's Action Alerts PLUS Podcast, or as some are calling it "Toddcast", with Street Smarts editor Todd Campbell. We cover quite a bit of ground and I would encourage you all to give it a listen when it's posted later today.

One topic that we talked about was the expectation for S&P 500 EPS growth not in 2023 but in 2024. It seems that once again the analyst elves have automagically assumed EPS will grow at something more than 10% -- you can see that below.

View Chart »View in New Window »

And while I don't want to be that guy, here's a look at how 2023 EPS for the S&P 500 has developed. My point being that we have a long way to when it comes to 2024.

View Chart »View in New Window »

We've been caught in a bit of rage over the last few months with the S&P 500, so I've asked Action Alerts PLUS team member Bob Lang to give us his technical take on that market basket. Here we go...

The S&P Weekly Chart Has Potential to Move Up

With only a couple of trading sessions left before the end of the month and quarter, the S&P 500 finds itself at a pivotal point. The price action has improved, and we have upgraded the chart to neutral/slightly bullish.

But the indicators are not altogether in sync. The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)is trying to break out, but this is often the predictor of moves. On the other hand, the TDI (traders dynamic), which utilizes relative strength over Bollinger Bands is on a solid bull signal.

On the price chart in the top pane, the weekly trend is still down, and that could be an issue soon. Why is that? We have seen plenty of buying in stocks over the last several days and with it a retreat of volatility. The VIX is now down to about 19%, a far cry from just a couple weeks back when this fear index was hitting 30%. 4100 still remains stiff resistance, while a potential downside target is 3900 and then 3800 below there. 

Just a thought: perhaps the high of the year is already in. That would be near 4200 on the S&P. But 4070 is important too, as we see a potential head/shoulders pattern forming. That would be bearish, and a roll down below 3800 would be a high probability. But even if that holds, we might continue to see a very tight trading range, something we had not seen in 2021 or 2022. A range of 4200 down to 3600 is a narrow margin, and would frustrate anyone looking for a breakout or breakdown.

But if that is what the market is giving us, we need to accept it - for the time being - and trade accordingly. 

https://share.trendspider.com/chart/SPX/4669tx66lc

Have any Diary readers made their way recently to a Chipotle (CMG) and sampled the limited time protein offering that is Chicken Al Pastor?

According to the company it combines adobo, morita peppers and ground achiote with a splash of pineapple and fresh lime. 

If you have tried and loved it, only liked it or didn't care for it, please let me know in the comments below. 

And I'm not asking only because I have lunch on my mind... 

Let's see what Todd Campbell, editor of Street Smarts has to say when he and I tape this week's AAP Podcast at 1 pm ET.

Following up on my XPeng (XPEV) and Ark (ARKK) post, perhaps it had something to with what's developed at Lucid Group (LCID) ? 

Lucid Group confirmed a restructuring plan that will focus on reducing its operating expenses, a move that includes cutting its workforce by approximately 18%. 

The prevailing thought is a rising EV tide would lift a number of boats, but by all accounts, there are more than 30 public ones plus whatever private ones there are. 

While it may be a dated example, we saw similar numbers back in the early days of the mobile phone market, one that saw the industry consolidate around 3-5 companies. The same is unfolding with the smartphone market and history buffs will see the similar dynamics in the TV, VCR, and other consumer electronics markets. 

Scale and the ability to drive profits and cash flow across a model line-up that spans various price points and vehicle types, will be the likely determinants of the top 3-5 in the EV space.

For all you Cathie Wood and Ark watchers, ARK Invest (ARKK) sold 226,727 shares of XPeng (XPEV) out of the ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (ARKQ) yesterday

That follows the 128,222 shares sold on Monday. This puts XPEV shares as one of smallest position in the ARKQ.

Borrowing from Dougie, here it is:

For those interested, Morgan Stanley is out with "a list of companies whose business models and market positions would be increasingly differentiated into 2025." 

1. Alphabet (GOOGL)
2. American Express (AXP)
3. Blackstone (BX)
4. Cheniere Energy (LNG)
5. Costco (COST)
6. Eaton (ETN)
7. Eli Lilly (LLY)
8. Estee Lauder (EL)
9. Exxon Mobil (XOM)
10. Hilton (HLT)
11. Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)
12. J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM)
13. Liberty Formula One (FWONK)
14. Linde (LIN)
15. Lululemon (LULU)
16. Mastercard (MA)
17. Microsoft (MSFT)
18. Motorola (MSI)
19. MSCI (MSCI)
20. NextEra Energy (NEE)
21. Nike (NKE)
22. Northrop Grumman (NOC)
23. Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL)
24. Prologis (PLD)
25. Raytheon (RTX)
26. Thermo Fisher (TMO)
27. T-Mobile (TMUS)
28. UnitedHealth (UNH)
29. Visa (V)
30. Yum Brands (YUM)

Blink Charging (BLNK) announced it has been awarded a Multiple Award Schedule contract by the U.S. General Services Administration. This contract will allow government customers and federal agencies to easily purchase Blink electric vehicle equipment and services through the GSA Schedule for their EV charging needs. 

Given the Biden Administration's efforts to build a nationwide EV charging network, we are likely to see others make similar announcements. At the Action Alerts PLUS (AAP) portfolio, we own ChargePoint (CHPT) shares, which in our view has a far stronger balance sheet.

And if you're interested in the EV charging buildout, you may want to hear what Three Sixty Solar VSOLF CEO Brian Roth shared with me in a recent AAP Podcast.

Reports indicate Ryanair Holdings (RYAAY) has entered talks with Boeing (BA) for an order of as many as 200 narrow-body aircraft, but those negotiations could span the next 6-12 months.

Ouch for retail this morning as UBS downgrades several companies to a "Sell" rating from "Neutral", including Burlington Stores (BURL) , Ross Stores (ROST) , Urban Outfitters (URBN) and Foot locker (FL) .

While the Action Alerts PLUS (AAP) portfolio doesn't have a position in Micron (MU) shares, we are still rather interested in its comments and outlook about its end markets.

During its earnings conference call last night, Micron shared it now expects PC unit volume to fall mid-single digits this year, smartphone unit volume to be down slightly in 2023, and that data center demand bottomed during the quarter.

Micron also shared the smartphone market is shifting its mix more towards flagship phones. 

At the margin, its comments about the PC market are incrementally positive compared to how it saw the 2023 market unfolding back in late December. That's a modest positive for AMD (AMD) , Intel (INTC) , and Microsoft (MSFT) .

Micron's comment about the market shifting to flagship phones is a positive for Apple (AAPL) , and its update on the data center market supports AAP entering Marvell (MRVL) shares earlier this month.

Alright folks, let's knock out the economic data we received early this morning and prep for what data on the home front we will be getting later today. 

Germany's GfK Consumer Climate Indicator increased for a sixth consecutive month in April to -29.5 vs. March's -30.6 figure and the expected one of -29.2. 

We have the usual weekly complement of MBA Mortgage Applications data and EIA Crude Oil Inventories reported by the Energy Information Administration. We expect that inventory data to be contrasted with this week's report from the American Petroleum Institute which showed a draw of 6.1 million barrels of oil for the week ending March 24. 

At 10 am ET, Pending Home Sales data for February will be published, and the expectation is a fall of 2.3% MoM vs. the 8.1% increase posted in January.

Equity futures point to the stock market looking to rebound when it opens later this morning. With no major economic news on the docket today, quarterly results from Cintas (CTAS) , Conn's (CONN) , Kingsoft Cloud (KC) , Paychex (PAYX) , and Sharecare (SHCR) might sway those futures that are being lifted by (UBS) , Micron (MU) and others. 

We also have the Federal Reserve's Vice Chair of Supervision Michael Barr making another appearance in Washington today, this time before the House Financial Services Committee.

And, The Wall Street Journalreports House Speaker Kevin McCarthy tried to prod President Biden into starting talks over spending cuts as a condition for raising the debt ceiling, just as Republicans are struggling to unite around a blueprint for negotiations ahead of dual deadlines later this year. 

With all of that out of the way, be it coffee like me, tea, or some other a.m. beverage to rev your engine, go top off your mug and I'll see you back here in short order.