DAILY DIARY
After-Hours Movers
* New feature!
I have been buying a number of dislocations on the disappointing EPS releases. Will recap in the morning.
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Hectic Night Ahead
I am preparing for a hectic night of EPS reports.
I will try to respond as promptly as possible but there is a lot to digest.
Energy Stocks
Today could mark a meaningful reversal to the downside in energy stocks - at least based on the price action of (OIH) .
I have a small OIH short which I added to at $301 this morning:
Oct 27, 2022 ' 09:55 AM EDT DOUG KASS
Today's Trades
Added to (META) (small at $98.98), (MSFT) $229, (GOOGL) $93.59.
Shorted (small at $301) (OIH) .
Subscriber Comment of the Day (and My Response)
Very few people of genius have changed the world twice. For every Newton, Einstein or Steve Jobs there have been hundreds of people with breakthrough ideas who never had a second act.(especially true with investment gurus!). Can Zuckerberg, a true genius, prevail against the unanimous rejection of his vision once again? Maybe he does see a bit further than the rest of us, and the metaverse is closer than most of us believe. I have not owned the stock for a long time, as I have never really liked the facebook experience. However, it is getting close to a price where taking a flyer on Zuckerberg might be a good bet. Long term, I think artificial reality could truly change the world, particularly in entertainment, and the winner will make a lot of money.
I like to say that the roads of Wall Street are paved with geniuses with one great idea in a row.
Dougie
Reduced Exposure
I continued to reduce my net long exposure today.
Zero Interest Rate Policy
This video encapsulates what I wrote about with regard to zero interest rate policy earlier.
Look Who's Talking!
* Here is another example why one should not follow the "whales"
Brad Gerstner is upset.
His Altimeter hedge fund is now down about 3/4 of a trillion dollars in (META) this year.
See my previous post on Altimeter.
Midday Musings From Sir Arthur Cashin
Stocks are experiencing a rather volatile morning. The bulls have been riding the Dow with a great big help from earnings, particularly - McDonald, Caterpillar, and Honeywell, which upon the opening, contributed nearly 200 points as the 350 point early bounce and continued to be solid support for the senior index.
The drop in yields is also helping, but as you can see, the difference between the Dow and Nasdaq is the earnings that are carrying the greatest part of the stimulus for the bulls.
The action is a bit of a whipsaw. Zipping up and down between +550 to +200 to +550 again and that may begin to wear out some of the bidders and we will see if that results in any kind of pullback.
The S&P continues for a second day to be hypnotized by its 50 day moving average, which is around 3855 or there about. We will continue to watch that.
The yield situation is zigzagging also and, for now, the yields are low enough to provide some support for the bulls, but not enough to get Nasdaq into plus territory.
Another thing helping the bulls is favorable economic data today. The GDP was stronger than expected, hinting that the economy may not be falling off a cliff and we may not already be in a recession. Further, they were helped by the PCE number, which is the Fed's preferred indication of inflation and it showed clear modification. So, again, they may, and I underscore the word may - take that to mean that some of their rate tightening is beginning to have an effect, but it seems a bit early to me.
Also helping bond yields was that the ECB followed the form chart and raised the 75 bp, but Lagarde's commentary, according to some, seemed to be a shade less hawkish. Continue to follow the yields. If the yield on the ten-year gets back up above 4%, that will be pressure on equities.
Stay safe.
Arthur
Calling an Audible
I am calling an audible and I have eliminated (PINS) :
* Too much event risk tonite.
* Market is overbought now and I have been reducing my long exposure.
I am maintaining the view that Pinterest will eventually be sold - likely to Alphabet (GOOGL) .
But now is not the time for high profiles M&A in tech.
I have reduced the size of my (PINS) long into tonight's quarterly release.
Market Breadth
Still good breadth and internals at 10:30 am:
Breadth
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Biggest Movers
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Heat Map
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The Fed's Zero Interest Rate Policy Has Led to Poor Capital Allocation Policy by Many Firms and to Poor Investment Decisions
* More examples of the tide going out and exposing us to who is swimming naked
* Excessive monetary growth gave capital to the likes of Chamath Palihapitiya, Cathie Woods and Mark Zuckerberg
* And now we see the consequences
An extended period of low interest rates has contributed to poor investment decisions - remember the popularity of (COIN) , (CVNA) , (HOOD) , (PYPL) , Et al. - and even worse corporate capital allocation strategy as corporations were moved to buy their own shares high with "free money".
Regarding wrong footed corporate decisions: (META) has purchased over $42 billion of its own stock at an average price of about $300/share (META was recently trading at about $100/share).
Or look at Seagate (STX) which spent an extraordinary amount of money on buybacks, which are really retiring executive stock option exercises and supporting their stock price - instead of doing the right thing of cleaning up its balance sheet by deleveraging.
Now, with Seagate missing on earnings and the share price getting hammered ($115 to $50!), the company has no dry powder or inclination left to buy stock as, after buying over $400 million of stock in the prior quarter, and increasing the company's debt levels from $5.6 billion to $6.2 billion, Seagate has suspended its share buyback.
A larger point can be abstracted.
It never should have been as easy as it was to begin with - but that is what easy money created by The Fed and our government does.
When money is free, the money is sent to places that it should not have gone to - in an ARK (ARKK) inspired buying binge of overvalued tech stocks and on the buyback of overvalued company shares.
And the money has ended up, as it always does when cycles end, in money heaven.
Why the S&P Index May Continue to Be Resilient Even in the Face of a Tech Wreck
JPM Trading Desk: "Short Are Getting Nervous: The Inability Of GOOGL and MSFT to Break This Tape Is Truly Noteworthy"
- Zero Hedge
No one thought that the shares of FAANG + M could measurably decline without adversely impacting the Indexes - but that is exactly what is happening.
Though statistically contra intuitive - with FAANG +M having such a material weighting in the S&P Index - liquidation of the former tech leaders is not having a noticeably adverse impact on the markets.
Indeed the S&P Index has increased by about 7% for the month of October - while the walking wounded of large-cap tech continues to disappoint on the earnings front.
What is happening - and we can see it in positive and improving breadth data - is that the proceeds of FAANG +M is going into other market sectors (e.g. financials, energy, etc.)
As to the markets, they broadly are benefiting from a number of factors that have offset the tech wreck:
* Investor sentiment hit an extreme low in early October
* The growing belief that global central banks are closer to the end of the tightening cycle. Bank of Canada's less than expected rate boost yesterday was indicative of this.
* Better than feared non tech earnings
* Low hedge fund exposure has created a FOMO response as prices began to rise
* Hedge funds have been concentrated in the same stocks - many of which are falling hard - according to Jefferies, value had the second biggest daily move in five years vs. FAANG +M outperforming by nearly 5%. Also, a basket of crowded hedge fund longs vs. hedge fund shorts had the worst day in year on Wednesday.
* CTAs have also turned buyers as stocks have climbed
* FOMO rises with higher stock prices
I Am So Old That I Remember When We Cared About Cathie Wood's Trades
* And I trembled when I was short a stock she was buying
* But I tremble no more - ARK Invest has become a contrary indicator
Remember the days when we really cared about ARK Invest's (ARKK) daily buying and selling?
I do.
Now, after the shares of ARKK have fallen by -80%, she, and ARK Invest, has become a a contrary indicator.
I noticed this week, for example, that all week she has been selling a long term short of mine, Berkeley Lights (BLI) - a stock that has dropped from $27/share to $2/share.
Yesterday she sold nearly a million shares.
I guess I have to soon consider covering my short.
ARK Trades - October 26, 2022
Trades are sorted by weight, high to low
The Book of Boockvar
Peter does some floating rate math:
I want to talk again about floating rate debt and its Fed driven shock impact on those that have it. Yesterday the S&P/LSTA leveraged loan index (whose debt is floating), closed yesterday at 92.03 cents on the dollar, just above the lowest since July and if it breaks it, we'd have to go back to July 2020 to see a similar level. That sharply higher interest expense was likely not planned for heading into 2022.
Now with respect to real estate, I'm going to do some back of the envelope math to highlight the shock for those investors who bought property over the last few years and have debt coming due this year or next. Assume in 2020 that Company A bought a $50mm multi family property in Utopiaville. They weren't that conservative and decided to take on a 3 yr loan with a loan to value ratio of 70% and paid a 5% gross cap rate for it.
So, they put down $15mm in equity, borrowed $35mm and the property delivers gross annual rent of $2.5mm (thus not including maintenance, insurance, taxes, property management, interest expense, etc...). They probably got a mortgage rate below 3% then so let's guess 2.75%. They'd thus be paying $962,500 per yr in interest (not including principal paydown) and their $2.5mm in rental income can handle that as they'd have $1.5mm left over for other expenses and investor distributions.
That debt though comes due next year and if rates stay where they are, they'll be refinancing into a 7%ish mortgage rate which would send their annual interest expense to $2.625mm. If they were able to raise rents by 10% in 2021 and by a similar amount in 2022, rental income would go up to about $3mm but they'd only have around $400k to cover all their expenses and leaving little, if any, left over. Property taxes in some states alone likely wipes out that $400k.
This same example goes for those who developed property in 2020, 2021 and took on construction debt at about a 3% interest expense that now needs robust rental growth when that loan is refinanced this year or next into a conventional mortgage loan to something above 7%.
Something to watch and if one paid a 4% cap rate instead and didn't lock in long term fixed rate debt, they'll definitely be handing back the keys to the banks.
LSTA
Not that we needed another reminder that inflation is a tax that hurts those that are most vulnerable but in Kimberly Clark's (maker of baby diapers, tissues, and toilet paper) earnings conference call a few days ago (a stock we own), the CEO reminded us: "And then with regard to the consumer, I would say, overall, I feel like the consumer remains resilient, but we are increasingly seeing some bifurcation in demand. And I don't know if I like that word, but it's - I'm just trying to describe that we're seeing two different patterns emerge. And it's mostly along, as you would expect, socioeconomic lines.
I mean, certainly - hence we do the research in a developed market like in North America, there's a broad swath of consumer that their savings are still higher than they were three years ago. They're employed. And while they may be curtailing some big-ticket purchases in our categories, which are essentials, we're not seeing a discernible change in behavior there. However, there's about 40% of the population in the US that is more living paycheck to paycheck. I grew up in one of those households and I know what it's like. And so we are seeing some changes in the consumption patterns, whether that is buying lower count packs or trading down a bit."
With respect to Meta, we know about their challenges both micro and macro so I just wanted to hone in on what they said about hiring ahead of claims data today and payrolls next Friday. "We are making significant changes across the board to operate more efficiently. We are holding some teams flat in terms of headcount, shrinking others and investing headcount growth only in our highest priorities. As a result, we expect headcount at the end of 2023 will be approximately in-line with third quarter 2022 levels." So no job growth here in the coming 12+ months.
In today's AAII data, Bears fell 10.5 pts to 45.7 and that is a 9 week low. Bulls rose 4 pts to 26.6, a 9 week high. The CNN Fear/Greed index has shifted into the 'Greed' category at 57. It was 40 one week ago and 17 one month ago. Yesterday's II figures saw the Bulls rise to 36.9 from 31.3 while Bears fell to 38.5 from 40.3. Bottom line, the extreme bearish sentiment seen at the end of September is no longer and more neutral now (although AAII is obviously still pretty bearish). Thus, strictly from a sentiment standpoint, we can't pull the contrarian lever as good reason for a bear market bounce.
After seeing the surprising uptick in French consumer confidence for October, the German GFK consumer confidence index was up a touch to a still deeply negative -41.9 vs -42.8 last month. GFK said "It is certainly too early to speak of a trend shift at this time. The situation remains very tense for consumer sentiment. Inflation has recently risen to 10% in Germany, and concerns about the security of energy supplies continue to rise. Therefore, it remains to be seen whether the current stabilization will last or whether, considering the upcoming winter, there is reason to fear a further worsening of the situation." The euro is lower after 5 straight days of declines but still holding that $1.00 level. Bond yields are higher across the region with stocks mostly lower.
German Consumer Confidence
Morning Musings From Sir Arthur Cashin
(Note: As requested by subscribers, I will provide this daily!)
Traders certainly were not building the Erie Canal on Wednesday, but they spent the entire day digging through a variety of influences to find out which, in fact, mattered to the equity market. Everything from central bank moves, yields on bonds, earnings reports and economic indicators. At the end of the tug and pull, we were left with a rather mixed market. We covered some of that in this late morning update:
Late Morning Update 10.26.22 Stocks are demonstrating a clear split personality today as the high cap techs and Nasdaq are being dragged by the earnings disappointment from Alphabet and Microsoft last night as projected by Katie Stockton, while the Dow is better, following the lead on the two year. The interesting thing will be to see which side, if any, dominates the end of the day. The VIX continues to move lower and that suggests we may be getting ready for a bit of a pause in here. The technical cross signals are leading to a bit more looming confusion.
Obviously, the yields will continue to be a major case. So, therefore, we will watch them. It is interesting that the ten-year yield is important, but they are beginning to pay a good deal of attention to the two-year as it is seen as the markets trying to interpret the Fed's next move. The key here will be - can the yields hold the Nasdaq back up to respectability or, as I suggested, are we ready to perhaps face a pause and even keep the split personality or maybe have slightly weaker technicals drag down on equities for a couple of days. We will stick with the yields as the probably dominate indicator and see where they go from there. Stay safe and have a great afternoon.
It was interesting to watch that tug of war, although tug of war is two sided and this is multi-sided. As we went into the late day trading, the bulls were represented by the Dow and they tried to convert the thinking in the Nasdaq, but it was the techs in the Nasdaq and the high cap tech earnings that were the overall influences for the day. It was not excessive volume, but you could see that the fact they were looking for a clear signal or leader kept them moving and that was what left us bothered for the day.
So, in summary, we had influences from things like the Bank of Canada seeming to moderate its tightening cycle along with hints other central banks might, which helped tick the bond yields down here. Despite some hints from central banks and some geopolitical things, the main feature of Wednesday's action was the market grappling with these earnings reports with the background influence of yields, but we have to give the large share of influence to the earnings reports, which can make it interesting since we are only halfway through earnings season. So, we are going to have a couple of known unknowns to keep an eye out all while we are trying to plot what U.S. and world economy is doing.
Meanwhile overnight in Asia, equity markets are trading with very narrow changes, tilting slightly to the upside, but the moves are almost fractional as we await further spill out from the Chinese governmental restructuring and as we carefully watch the Bank of Japan grapples both with its currency and bond market. In Europe, markets are cautious, but somewhat hopeful as we await the meeting of the European Central Bank. It is expected that they will hike rates the full 75 bp and not follow their Canadian cousins in showing signs of moderation.
The overall feeling is that earnings season will keep everyone's attention and then we will go from the Fed's move next week and followed by the mid-term election and then, depending on the results, see if there is any frantic moves in the lame duck session between the election and end of the year to see if legislation is forced through.
Today's U.S. economic calendar is moderate. This morning, we will get Durable Goods and GDP along with the traditional Initial Jobless Claims. In late morning, comes the natural gas inventories and the Kansas City Manufacturing data. At 1:00, we will get a look at the seven-year auction, which is sometimes a market mover.
So, it looks like we are going to digest earnings, including Meta, the stock formerly known as Facebook, as traders assess whether its business model is being challenged again. When Apple changed privacy laws on the ads, that changed the ad income for Meta. The overall feel here is the market may want to tiptoe into the weekend as we move toward Halloween and the Fed decision early next week.
For now, stick with the standard drill. Stay close to the newsticker. Keep your seatbelt fastened. Stay nimble and alert and keep your eye on yields, which now sees the ten-year creeping back up above 4% level. Stay safe.
Premarket Movers
Upside
- (AIMC) +48% (to be acquired by Regal Rexnord Corp for $62.00/shr in cash valued at ~$5.0B; reports prelim Q3)
- (PI) +17% (earnings, guidance)
- (NOW) +14% (earnings, guidance)
- (TDOC) +11% (earnings, guidance)
- (SHOP) +8.1% (earnings, guidance)
- (COUR) +7.5% (earnings, guidance)
- (USER) +7.0% (Thoma Bravo and Sunstone said to acquire company at $7.50/shr)
- (OII) +6.9% (earnings, guidance)
- (PTEN) +6.8% (earnings, guidance)
- (GSHD) +6.3% (earnings, guidance)
- (FLEX) +5.5% (earnings, guidance)
- (HON) +5.2% (earnings, guidance)
- (CAT) +4.3% (earnings, guidance)
- (CCJ) +4.1% (earnings, guidance; raises dividend)
- (LUV) +4.1% (earnings, guidance)
- (ATNM) +3.3% (expands clinical leadership team to support key development programs for Iomab-B and Actimab-A)
- (MCD) +2.9% (earnings, guidance)
- (ORLY) +2.9% (earnings, guidance)
- (MMSI) +2.6% (earnings, guidance)
- (TRVI) +2.5% (to present final data from Phase 2 trial of oral Nalbuphine Extended Release for Chronic Cough in IPF at BTS' Winter Meeting)
- (CARR) +2.3% (earnings, guidance; to buyback $2.0B in additional shares)
- (MRK) +2.1% (earnings, guidance)
- (SHYF) +2.1% (earnings, guidance)
Downside
- (SNBR) -30% (earnings, guidance)
- (WOLF) -24% (earnings, guidance)
- (META) -22% (earnings, guidance)
- (ALGN) -19% (earnings, guidance)
- (FNHC) -19% (announces voluntary Nasdaq delisting)
- (HOUS) -15% (earnings)
- (TROX) -9.4% (earnings, guidance)
- (LC) -8.6% (earnings, guidance)
- (SWK) -5.7% (earnings, guidance)
- (BC) -5.6% (earnings, guidance)
- (UPWK) -5.1% (earnings, guidance)
- (LII) -5.0% (earnings, guidance)
- (AN) -4.5% (earnings)
- (HTZ) -3.8% (earnings)
- (F) -2.3% (earnings, guidance)
- (IP) -2.2% (earnings)
- (FTI) -2.0% (earnings, guidance)
From The Street of Dreams
JPMorgan on (META) :
We downgraded Meta shares to Neutral in February following 4Q21 earnings w/the view that many of the N-T ad pressures were out of their control (i.e. macro, Apple changes, TikTok competition), that Reels would take time to ramp monetization, & that the transition to the Metaverse would be expensive, uncertain, & multi-year. Several months later, all of those factors remain in place & have proven even more impactful.
Meta's 3Q earnings were similar to Alphabet's a night ago: 3Q/4Q revenue soft overall but essentially as expected, ongoing macro & competitive pressures, & spending that remains heavy in 2023. The difference is that Meta was supposed to be ahead in shrinking the company in '23, and transparency around expenses and capex for next year should have been a benefit. Meta will hold headcount flat from 3Q levels in 2023, but total expenses are still anticipated to be $96B-$101B, above Street expectations that were for a low-end around $90B. Reality Labs will lose significantly more in 2023-going in the wrong direction-largely due to the launch of the next-gen Quest headset. And capex-which has more than doubled over the past 2 years-will increase to $34B-$39B. To be fair, flat headcount & significant slowing of total expenses and capex reflect progress in cost rationalization, but Meta remains committed to investing for the long-term, particularly in: 1) the AI discovery engine; 2) ads & messaging; & 3) the metaverse.
However, the timing on return of those investments remains unclear, and we believe the set of revenue drivers into 2023 is less impactful than in previous years, and faces macro headwinds. Key topline drivers in '23 include Reels (currently at a $3B annualized run-rate), click-to-messaging ($9B run-rate), click-to-WhatsApp ($1.5B run-rate), easier comps, & less Y/Y ATT headwind, all coming against uncertain macro. Net/net, our '23 revenue estimate remains mostly unchanged at +3% reported growth, but against an elevated expense base. This takes our '23 GAAP EPS from an already below consensus $9.24 to $7.28 currently. Our PT comes down from $180 to $115 based on ~14x 2024E GAAP EPS of $8.06.
Tweet of the Day (Part Six)
Tweet of the Day (Part Five)
Tweet of the Day (Part Four)
More Night Moves: A Detailed Look at Overnight Futures and Why/What Markets Are Moving
"Workin' on our night moves
Trying to lose the awkward teenage blues
Workin' on our night moves
In the summertime
And oh the wonder
Felt the lightning
And we waited on the thunder
Waited on the thunder."
- Bob Seger, "Night Moves"
This daily feature is like inside baseball. I try to show you and write about what I believe thoughtful hedge fund managers are looking at when they awake, setting the stage for their strategy in the day. The market is a complicated mosaic and the more info you have the better trader and investor you will be! (At the request of some subscribers I am streamlining this column this morning.)
* The market moved further into an overbought yesterday as the S&P Oscillator turned more positive - clearly breaking out of the oversold that existed for a few weeks.
* Despite the tech wreck (Ss over Ns yesterday), lower rates buffered the S&P losses on Wednesday. However, tech was not spared, after (META) 's disappointing results and guidance, as the Nasdaq was a big underperformer vis a vis the other Indices. I will discuss the reasons I see for the market's resilience in my opener this morning.
* This morning the ECB is expected to hike interest rates by 75 basis points.
* "All investment roads lead to interest rates" continues to be the market's mantra and the watchword of my investing faith.
* Away from the very short term, (Goodbye TINA (There Is No Alternative), hello TATA (Treasuries Are the Alternative)) - bonds now are providing a reasonable alternative to stocks and, for the first time in years, bonds provide an opportunity for income and even some price appreciation - after the biggest bond rout in history this year. I continue to believe that we are at the terminal stage of the rate advance - indeed recent results at (MSFT) , (GOOGL) , META and many other economically sensitive industrial companies signal renewed business weakness and reinforce my positive view on bonds. Fixed income products remain especially compelling on a return basis for those that have low risk tolerance and don't want to be involved in the growing chaos, uncertainty and volatility in the equity markets.
* S&P futures were slightly higher overnight, but not terribly so. Futures dipped at about 4 am but seem to be rallying again now (4:25 am). But there is a lot of time (five hours) between now and the market's opening!
* A still elevated VIX (implying daily moves of about 1 1/2%) is providing a lot of intra day volatility! Again, to me, more conservative investors should take action and reduce position sizes in order to lower portfolio risk (VAR). In other words your portfolio's change in daily value is growing more extreme. One should adjust exposures in this market based on your risk appetite and risk profile.
* I continue to be alert to signs of dollar funding stress with the three month FRA/OIS spread widening.
* The U.K. and the European Union's economic and financial uncertainty and instability, punching above their weight - of taming inflation on one hand and resuscitating economic growth on the other - remain the concern du jour. As I have previously written, who would have thought several months ago, that U.K. policy would be the tail that wags the U.S. market's dog?
* Elevated global short-term interest rates remain a market hurdle and could be a restriction for meaningful gains from here - that has been my view for a while. Anyway, this results in me looking at U.K. gilt yields and the pound's value when I arise at 4 am, even before reading about the baseball playoffs (crap!). This morning sterling was little changed and gilt bond yields were slightly higher.
* The recent strength in bond prices (lower yield) has reversed a bit this morning. The yield on the U.S. 2-Year Note was +2 basis points. The yield on the 10-Year was up by four basis points, to yield 4.055%. The 10 year U.K. gilt yield was +4 basis points. I sold my (TLT) two days ago for a small gain.
* Currencies were stable this morning.
* Market inflation data have noticeably moderated - serving to soften labor and hard/soft commodities in recent months. As well, supply chain disruptions have moderated. This morning most commodities were higher.
The market (and money) never sleeps -- and neither do I, it appears!
I described the importance that overnight futures trading holds for me here. It is a guidepost to my strategy in the regular trading session.
Moreover, the overnight/early morning futures hold opportunities as they are (1) inefficient, though liquid, and (2) it seems fear and greed is often exaggerated outside the regular trading session.
After the "tech wreck" S&P and Nasdaq futures were slightly higher this morning - more below.
In recent weeks, during these volatile markets, I have kept a bead on volatility. In recent days the VIX has moved from the low 30s to about 27 (+0.10 this morning). This has benefited my straddle.
Gold has recently shown some life after being weak for months. This morning the precious metal was flat.
This morning Brent oil was +$0.15 to $95.85 /barrel. Late last week I started a small short in VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH) and I added to the position this week. Energy equities have materially outperformed the commodity as the momentum gang has glummed onto the sector - which has been the best performing group this year in the S&P.
Bond yields continue to represent the greatest risk to equities. As noted above, yields around the globe were slightly higher this morning.
The S&P Oscillator finally moved positive on Friday - at 0.16% - after being in the range of -3% to -4% for about 10 days. It closed on Monday at 1.79% and gapped to 4.16% at Tuesday's close. This morning it stands at an overbought 5.59%. With the emerging overbought I have stepped off the accelerator of adding to equities, as a result and have put on the brake a bit as the oscillator has been a good short-term trading tool over the last few months.
Cryptocurrencies have inched higher in recent days and Bitcoin was about $20,700 (flat this morning). Like gold, I continue to have zero interest in any cryptos.
S&P futures peaked at +27 and bottomed at +1. At 4:40 am ET futures were +13 handles.
Nasdaq futures peaked at +90 and bottomed at -30. At 4:42 am ET futures were +9 handles.
Here is a synopsis (link) of some of my columns I believe were important, or in the event you were out yesterday. The principal intent is to review the logic of my market moves and other factors:
Berkshire Hathaway: Reflections Of How Returns Used to Be
I Am Still Asking Why We Pay Attention to Gerstner on META?
This next section provides transparency and a further record in memorializing my good and bad investments - frankly, there are a lot of disingenuous actors who smile and get away in the business media with disastrous recommendations of individual stocks and in piss poor market projections.
Here are some of my trades for Wednesday:
* Sold all my (SPY) . ($385.55) on the late morning ramp (to positive) from the lows- I added back small (and lower) on early morning weakness.
* Sold most of my (QQQ) (the rest I am hedged with short calls) $282.65 - like SPY into the brief rally yesterday morning, early afternoon.
* Bought MSFT and added to Google.
* Bought and sold small META (remain with a small equity position protected (somewhat)/dulled by in the money and out of the money calls)
__________
Long MSFT, GOOGL, QQQ, META, SPY.
Short MSFT calls, GOOGL calls, QQQ calls, META calls.
Tweet of the Day (Part Trois)
From Bramo:
Tweet of the Day (Part Deux)
Themes and Sectors
This chart, produced daily, is a valuable resource for short-term traders:
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