Thanks for reading my Diary today.

I would note that the S&P Oscillator moved to 1.79% -- so getting a bit more overbought.

I hope you found my Diary contributions worthwhile.

Enjoy the evening.

Be safe.

Brad Gerstner's Altimeter Capital Management LP hedge fund owned 2.3 million shares of (META) at year-end 2021 (representing 7.5% of the fund).

At the end of the second quarter, Altimeter owned 2.4 million shares of META (representing 9.1% of the fund).

At year end 2021 META's shares traded at $337share -- and now only $129.

So, Altimeter has lost more than $550 million this year in the name.

No wonder he is upset and delivered a letter to the company!

But, I ask this respectfully, why -- with these results -- should we be listening to Gerstner on META?

The previous column expressed concern regarding the delinkage of equities and fixed income.

This column brings up the "so-so" market breadth as another concern with 3:30 pm data:

These factors are not enough to turn bearish but enough to get concerned.

For the second day in a row, equities have delinked from fixed income. 

Yields on both the two year, ten year and thirty year bonds are higher on the day. 

I am watching this closely... 

And it is the principal reason why I have been making sales into strength this afternoon.

I am a bit nervous about the Microsoft (MSFT) quarterly release. I don't expect a beat and based on our research the report could be a bit light. 

So, with Microsoft having recently climbed from $219 to 247 - I am calling an audible and I just sold the balance of my holdings. 

I will revisit after the release tomorrow.

I am making some sales in Microsoft (MSFT) after its recent strong run. 

Getting smaller into the EPS report.

Taking In some premium United Airlines (UAL)  which has had a terrific move and I think there is more to come. 

But it's a bit extended now and I am selling some December $43 and $45 calls for a nice premium.

Here you go!

Nomura Is "Underwhelmed" At Timiraos "Fed-tervention"; Beware Of "Crap-tastic" Earnings Expectations

I remarked about the new regime of volatility several times this morning. 

In terms of individual stock volatility, take a gander at Meta Platform's (META) intraday chart!

I initiated a small long position in Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) at $13.22.

More to come later in the week.

From Professor Scott Galloway:

One quarter of Congress is older than 70. We have the oldest government in U.S. history.

· Today, half of the country is 38 or younger. Yet only 5% of Congress represents that demographic.

· We have more members of Congress above 70 years old than ever before. This creates problems when they have to regulate technologies they don't understand.

· The average age in Congress is 62. It's time we consider age limits or term limits and put more faith in those who will have to live with the policies we create: young people.

Brad K

Thought the MJ crowd may find this interesting. I am pricing insurance as I lost my property insurance with State Farm because one of my tenants is MJ business and broker sent me an application from Berkshire Hathaway Homestate Companies that has a Cannabis supplement.

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF... outside day to the upside?

Meta Platforms (META) is benefiting from a rumor that the securities breach has to do with TikTok.

From Peter Boockvar: 

The S&P Global October US PMI remained below 50 for a 4th straight month at 47.3 from 49.5 in September and vs 44.6 in August and 47.7 in July. Services dropped to 46.6 from 49.3 and manufacturing declined a hair under 50 at 49.9.

With services, S&P Global said "Firms linked the decrease to weak client demand and the impact of inflation and higher interest rates." New orders fell back below 50 and "Weighing on total new sales was a drop in foreign client demand. New export orders declined at a solid pace due to inflationary pressure in key export markets."

On pricing in the US, prices paid ticked up but is still well below its highs. As for those received, "Companies partially passed on higher cost burdens to their customers, as the pace of charge inflation picked up slightly." Employment fell below 50 for the first time since June 2020 and "Companies noted the non-replacement of voluntary leavers, alongside some reports of lay-offs." As for the business outlook in services, it fell to the "weakest since September 2020, as higher operating costs and client hesitancy weighed on optimism."

On manufacturing, call it "broadly unchanged operating conditions on the month." Production did rise slightly above 50 "as firms noted easing supply chain pressures and the delivery of some key inputs." But, new orders fell back below 50 to the weakest since May 2020 as "alongside domestic inflationary pressures, total new orders were dampened by challenging economic conditions in key export destinations and dollar strength, as new export orders fell steeply."

Supply constraints eased to the least since July 2020 "as firms noted less marked extensions to input delivery times." Both prices paid and received declined further. Employment stayed above 50 but less so m/o/m. With regards to the future, "output expectations regarding the year ahead outlook at manufacturing firms slipped to the lowest in almost 2 ½ years. Muted customer demand and inflation concerns reportedly dampened confidence."

The bottom line from S&P Global, "The US economic downturn gathered significant momentum in October, while confidence in the outlook also deteriorated sharply. The decline was led by a downward lurch in services activity, fueled by the rising cost of living and tightening financial conditions. While output in manufacturing remains more resilient for now, October saw a steep drop in demand for goods, meaning current output is only being maintained by firms eating into backlogs of previously placed orders."

My bottom line, on Thursday we're possibly going to see a 2%+ GDP figure for Q3 after the two prior quarters of declines. But when combining all three quarters, you'll see no growth thru September year to date. And if this S&P Global business survey has any validity, the US economy is now seeing declining activity for 4 straight months (measuring direction, not degree).

S&P Global US PMI

Services

Manufacturing

As of 10:30 am:

- NYSE volume 215M shares, 24% above its three-month average

- Nasdaq volume 1.38B shares, 9% above its three-month average

- VIX index +3% at 30.70

Market Breadth

View Chart »View in New Window »

Biggest Movers

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Heat Map

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Added to (DAL) , (GOOGL) , (META) , (GTBIF) and (MSOS) .

Sold small (MSFT) and (DIS) .

PNC is a brute!

As bonds slip, I get more defensive. 

For emphasis, again...

I am positioning myself a bit more defensively as bond yields reverse hard.

View Chart »View in New Window »

* In a new regime of extraordinary volatility in both bonds and stocks...

S&P futures peaked last night +50 handles.

When I started writing/trading at 4 am they were -25 handles.

Futures then rose by +38 handles.

And now they were +12 handles.

In all, S&P futures have moved by 165 handles.

Subject to your risk appetite/profile, this mandates a reduction in your portfolio's VAR. 

In other words, reduce the size of each position.

Jefferies raises Delta Air (DAL)  , a new position with United Air (UAL) , from $35 to $40 this morning.

Upside

- (PCVX) +46% (reports positive topline data from Phase 1/2 proof-of-concept study of 24-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine candidate being investigated for prevention of invasive pneumococcal disease in adults aged 18-64)
- (SCHL) +11% (authorizes $75M share buyback)
- (ABOS) +10% (ACU193, an anti-amyloid beta oligomer antibody, granted FDA Fast Track Designation for Alzheimer's Disease)
- (MYOV) +8.2% (Sumitovant Biopharma, Sumitomo Pharma offer to acquire company at $27/shr)
-PXMD +6.1% (appoints Stefan Schwabe MD, PhD as Chief Medical Officer, effective immediately)
- (WOLF) +5.8% (JPMorgan Chase and Co Raised WOLF to Overweight from Neutral, price target: $160 from $130)
- (NOW) +4.0% (Guggenheim Securities Raised NOW to Buy from Neutral, price target: $510)
- (HLGN) +3.6% (awarded $4.1M by US DOE to accelerate the large-scale development and deployment of concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP) technology, to reduce the carbon emissions associated with cement manufacturing)
- (HA) +2.9% (consolidated Q1 and Q2 financial results should no longer be relied upon due to accounting error in unrealized losses)
- (VRAY) +2.3% (to declare primary endpoint outcome in first prospective, multi-institutional study to deliver ablative doses of radiation to pancreatic cancer patients)
- (BYND) +2.1% (launches Beyond Steak available for purchase at more than 5,000 Kroger and Walmart stores nationwide)
- (MDT) +1.9% (intends to separate its combined Patient Monitoring and Respiratory Interventions businesses via a distribution that is expected to be tax-free to Medtronic shareholders)

Downside

- (TCDA) -93% (reports TVALOR-CKD Phase 3 Trial of Veverimer did NOT meet primary endpoint)
- (BABA) -12% (recent weakness in Chinese US-listed names being attributed to investor concerns following China Pres Xi officially extended his presidency into precedent-breaking 3rd term and appointed Li Qiang, responsible for Shanghai lockdowns, as new China's Premier)
- (BIDU) -12% (recent weakness in Chinese US-listed names being attributed to investor concerns following China Pres Xi officially extended his presidency into precedent-breaking 3rd term and appointed Li Qiang, responsible for Shanghai lockdowns, as new China's Premier)
- (XPEV) -10% (recent weakness in Chinese US-listed names being attributed to investor concerns following China Pres Xi officially extended his presidency into precedent-breaking 3rd term and appointed Li Qiang, responsible for Shanghai lockdowns, as new China's Premier)
- (YUMC) -10% (confirms primary listing on HKEX)
- (ALPN) -9.4% (terminates Enrollment of davoceticept clinical studies (NEON-1 and NEON-2); plans to focus development resources primarily on ALPN-303 for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in collaboration with AbbVie)
- (TSLA) -2.4% (affirms FY22-24 Capex $6.0-8.0B/yr (prior: $6.0-8.0B/yr); recorded $170M impairment on bitcoin during 9M ended Sept 30th)
- (TTCF) -1.9% (Cowen Cuts TTCF to Market Perform from Outperform, price target: $4.50)

Back to 2:01 pm on September 21: 

Taking a step back from the Friday Fed speak and the Nick Timiraos Fed plug WSJ whisper article, we are essentially back to where we were on September 21st, 2:01pm, one minute after the economic and rate projections from the Fed were released that day. Just before, we expected a 100 bps of rate hikes in total over the remaining two meetings in November and December.

What those dots told us was that maybe it would be 125 bps. Fast forward to the CPI report a few weeks later and the market started to price in maybe two 75 bps increases. Now, we're just back to 125 bps, likely 75 bps next week and 50 bps in the one after. Either way, the Fed is getting to their 4%ish level and its soon time that they will be much more sensitive to the data as the rate front loading is almost done. The fed funds futures are pricing in a 48% chance of 150 bps more vs 76% last Thursday.

Now we can see that just maybe a Fed bond put emerged on Friday with the Timiraos article and followed by comments from Evans and Daly amid the sharp selloff in Treasuries. Evans said "Front loading was a good thing. But overshooting is costly too, and there is great uncertainty about how restrictive policy must actually become. So this is going to put a premium on the strategy of getting to a place and a level where policy can plan to rest and evaluate." Daly said on the prospect of a "step down" from the pace of 75 bps rate hikes, "It should at least be something we're considering at this point, but the data haven't been cooperating."

As for the markets response on Friday we were reminded again of how much Fed policy means to just about everything and just the prospect of the end of rate hikes is welcome relief. It certainly will be but it's only part of this journey in that we're going to have to live with a much higher cost of capital for a longer period of time thereafter.

Reflecting how hard it is for central bankers to extricate themselves from their extreme policies over the past 15 years, Reuters reported yesterday that "South Korea's government will expand its corporate bond buying program among other liquidity supply measures amid growing worries about a credit crunch in bond and short term money markets. The government will double the ceiling of its corporate bond buying facility run by state-run banks to 16 trillion won ($11 billion), Minister of Economy and Finance Choo Kyung-ho said Sunday." The Kospi did rally by 1%.

With the likelihood that Rishi Sunak will be the next PM, the author of the corporate tax rate hike next year to 25% from 19%, that Liz Truss wanted to prevent, and also the windfall profits tax, gilt yields are rallying sharply as maybe the BoE won't be as aggressive with hikes. The 2 yr gilt yield is down by 33 bps to 3.47%. The 10 yr yield is lower by 20 bps to 3.86%. Both are at one month lows. The pound is little changed after the rally last week.

Positively for Europe, the price of Dutch TTF natural gas fell below 100 euros per MWH at 98. It's the lowest since June and for perspective, it was in the low 70s before the Russian invasion.

Dutch TTF

Not that it's surprising but President Xi officially announced that he's surrounding himself by 'yes' men and that security could be/will be the priority over economic growth and Chinese stocks got slammed in response, particularly H shares in Hong Kong by 7.3%. The offshore yuan is also getting hammered, down by 1% which is a huge move for this currency. The Chinese economy is going to have to grow in spite of Xi, not because of him.

Speaking of which, China's GDP (finally reported) grew by 3.9% y/o/y, above the estimate of up 3.3% as infrastructure spending (both helping IP and fixed asset) and trade offset weakness in consumer spending and property. We take the absolute level of GDP with a large grain of salt and instead focus on the trajectory of growth and that of course is a downshift.

We also saw some overseas PMI's before the US one today. Japan's composite index rose to 51.7 from 51 solely due to a rise in services. That service figure was helped by a pick up in tourism in response to the ever weakening yen and "The recent easing in international border restrictions and the launching of the Nationwide Travel Discount Program" according to S&P Global. In contrast, "The manufacturing sector continued to struggle in the face of weak demand conditions and severe cost pressures."

Speaking of Japan, the moves in the yen are getting ever more wild as after rallying 1.7% on Friday because of the FX intervention, it's selling off by 1.2% today as the Japanese government is getting reminded AGAIN that intervention is spitting in the wind unless the crux of the weakness is dealt with and the BoJ has no interest in that.

2 day Moves in Yen

Australia's October PMI fell under 50 at 49.6 from 50.9 in September with both components lower m/o/m. S&P Global said "A fall in demand for services was underpinned by higher interest rates and prices, altogether reflective of the detriments of aggressive monetary policy tightening and capacity constraints upon business activity."

The October Eurozone PMI fell 1 pt to further below 50 at 47.1. The estimate was 47.6. Services dropped by .6 pts to 48.2 while manufacturing dropped by almost 2 pts to 46.6. So, there should be little doubt that the Eurozone economy is in a recession. S&P Global said "While the rising cost of living remains the predominant cause of the economic slowdown, the region's energy crisis remains a major concern and a drag on activity, especially in energy intensive sectors. Price pressures meanwhile remain stubbornly elevated, as rising energy and staff costs, and the weakened euro, offset any lowering of commodity prices linked to improving supply conditions."

The UK PMI declined to 47.2 from 49.1 and below the forecast of 48 with also both components below 50. We can certainly blame the political turmoil, among other things like the energy price crunch and expect a negative Q4 GDP print here too when it comes. 

* Buy low, sell high. The market may still be a buy on weakness, but not on strength. Dispassionate trading/investing and a willingness to buy weakness, and sell strength, seems to be the road to superior investment returns - even though it is tax efficient.

* High global interest rates and profit uncertainty remain factors that could cap the current advance and weigh on valuations.

* Increasingly we have to look "over there" to find out what may happen "over here."

* Tactically, buying 30 stocks and holding them (forever) may be an appropriate long-term strategy, and at some time will return as a favored strategy - but over the next few months there remains a wide range of policy, political, geopolitical, market and economic outcomes, many of them adverse.

* Active investing beat passive investing in 2022.

* There will be a wide dispersion of investment performance this year - as a buy and hold strategy, in both bonds and stocks, has failed (generationally).

* A period of heightened volatility will likely lie ahead. Stay flexible and adjust your portfolio's VAR (value at risk) to conform with your risk appetite and profile.

* We learned this year which commentators and "talking heads" were swimming naked. Going forward, learn from this lesson.

Some more housing comments from Danielle DiMartino Booth:Whenever we write about housing, we are asked one question: "What does this mean for the job market?" To devise an answer, we got granular. At the beginning of the home building pipeline are workers who prepare lots. These will be the first to lose their jobs. Hours worked across these contractors peaked in February at 13.3 million, a smidge shy of the January 2007's record high of 13.5 million hours (green line).

Architects are also brought in at the outset of the home building process. At 5.7 million hours, they've yet to peak (red line) but we suspect they will be the next in line. Before moving on, the trend towards offshoring architects is glaring as peak hours worked during the last housing bubble were 15% north of their current high point.Zooming out to the biggest picture on labor in residential real estate entailed summing 15 industries: residential building construction, specialty trade contractors, wood product manufacturing, nonmetallic mineral product manufacturing, architectural metal product manufacturing, furniture manufacturing, furniture wholesale, lumber & construction supplies wholesale, HVAC wholesale, furniture/home furnishing retail, building material retail, movers (in transportation), real estate agents, title companies (other legal services) and architectural services (blue line).

Add them up and you get to 7.7 million jobs, about the size of Houston.It's difficult to see how many millions of these jobs will be at risk as housing continues to implode. What we do know is the number of workers last peaked at 8.5 million and troughed at 5.9 million, a 31% decline. That same magnitude of decline today implies 2.4 million workers. Direct comparisons are, however, compromised by the 1.7 million homes still under construction (yellow line), a near 50-year high. In the prior cycle, that number peaked at 1.4 million.If you've seen me speak in the last year, you will be familiar with some damning demographics calculated by Zelman & Associates. Back in the 1970s, when new home supply was last as abundant, the Baby Boomer cohort was entering its prime buying years and growing at a rate of 4.5% annually. Today's Millennials are at that same life stage to make house and home. The catch is they're growing at 1.2%. Remember this math the next time someone tells you demographics favor the U.S. housing market.

In a recent tweet Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi, an optimist if there ever was one, said home prices nationwide will fall 10% and "20% if there is a typical recession." Consider this the best-case scenario as I chin-up, hoping next weekend's games deliver sports redemption.

After speaking to managements at five housing-related companies last week, the weight of much higher mortgage rates, and still relatively inflated home prices, are having a profound impact on housing activity. 

I would avoid most homebuilders, remodeling beneficiaries (Home Depot (HD) , Lowes (LOW) , Whirlpool (WHR) , etc.) - as earnings revisions lower are going to be painful. 

Here are some relevant charts from Danielle DiMartino Booth:

Bank of America downgrades Meta Platforms (META) to neutral and reduces its price target from $196 to $150.

* IMHO

The Indexes are now at the higher end of the channel/range: 

S&P Index

Wolf Street on auto inventories.

This chart is a valuable resource for short term traders:

View Chart »View in New Window »

SPX P/E RATIO; 1995 - PRESENT (red bars are recession periods)

Economic Surprises and the S& P Index

This daily feature is like inside baseball. I try to show you and write about what I believe thoughtful hedge fund managers are looking at when they awake, setting the stage for their strategy in the day. The market is a complicated mosaic and the more info you have the better trader and investor you will be!

* "All investment roads lead to interest rates" has been demonstrated recently. Goodbye TINA (There Is No Alternative), hello TATA (Treasuries Are the Alternative): I believe the bond rout continues to create an intermediate term opportunity in both fixed income and, in the fullness of times, in equities when they weaken, not when they advance.

While there has been a rate/equity delinkage on Friday - the absolute level of domestic and non US interest rates continues to weigh on equities - it raises the cost of capital and the risk-free rate of return used in discounted dividend models. I continue to believe that we are at the terminal stage of the rate advance. Last week I was a buyer of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)  and more Treasuries. Fixed income remains especially compelling for those that have low risk tolerance and don't want to be involved in the growing chaos and volatility in the equity markets.

* Action Jackson! Daily and hourly volatililty is growing extreme and price action is growing more unpredictable. Last night's futures action, for example, was nuts. S&P futures rose by over 50 handles in the early going Sunday evening- I shorted - and dropped by around -25 handles and were now -20 or so (5:25 am). To me, this requires attention and action as VAR (value of the portfolio at risk) rises along with a higher VIX - in other words your portfolio's change in daily value is growing more extreme. One should adjust exposures in this market based on your risk appetite and risk profile.

Here was my very recent hedge fund's strategy (of selling around core positions/shorting futures and shorting OIH (more on this later this morning) Friday to Sunday evening in an attempt to reduce my portfolio's VAR: 

From my Diary late Friday:

Oct 21, 2022 ' 03:34 PM EDT DOUG KASS

TGIF

- I am taking off some of my trading long rentals now, with S&P cash +90 handles - trading around core.

- I have been scaling into an oil short (OIH) .

From Comments Section Sunday evening - an excellent Ludacris Forecast I might add!:

dougie kass

Sold some Spoos short at - about +40 at 3804 (now 3744 where I have covered!) at about 620 PM Sunday evening (my triggers were the extreme price move producing an overbought and the surprising weakness of the Yen v US dollar).
Mr. Market is extended.
Dougie

dougie kass dougie kass

Ludacris Forecast:
50/50 Spoos are down when i awake!.
Oscillator closed positive for first time in a while, overbought.
Dougie

* Another concern I had late Friday was the continuing signs of dollar funding stress with the three month FRA/OIS spread widening. More on this later.

* The U.K. and the European Union's economic and financial uncertainties, punching above their weight - of taming inflation on one hand and resuscitating economic growth on the other -- remain the concern du jour. As I wrote Monday, who would have thought several months ago, that U.K. policy would be the tail that wags the U.S. market's dog? The unprecedented instability of currencies and interest rates continues to underscore the likely end of the salad days of easy financial conditions and likely holds the key to the prospective course of global equity markets during the near term.

Elevated global short-term interest rates remain a market hurdle and could be a restriction for meaningful gains from here - that has been my view for a while. Anyway, this results in me looking at U.K. gilt yields and the pound's value when I arise at 4 am, even before reading about the baseball playoffs (crap!). This morning sterling is stronger and gilt bond yields are lower (-15 to -20 basis points), a delinkage from lower stock future prices.

* Overnight the Chinese stock and currency markets came into focus - with the yen at 7.3 to the US Dollar - lowest since The Great Decession in 2008-9 and Chinese equities are getting schmeissed after Xi's moves to gain or keep his power.

* I remain bullish and dispassionately bought in weakness - but less bullish now than last Monday after the magnitude of last week's and Sunday night's advances. As mentioned, I remain in the camp of a successful test in here as noted in my Diary a few weeks ago, on Bloomberg two weeks ago and in my opener on last Tuesday (Why I Remain Optimistic on Both Stocks and Bonds) - though it doesn't have to be a straight line higher! I also had mentioned that I spoke to Lee Cooperman recently and he mentioned that two technicians he speaks to and respects are looking for a rally over the near term. They were sorely wrong on Friday! But very right on Monday.

*The U.S. dollar remains strong this morning. Overnight, non-U.S. currencies, especially the pound and the Eurodollar, declined against the US dollar. The Yen is quite weak. The recent climb in overseas interest rates is the byproduct of ill-timed (2021-2022) and now hawkish monetary policy, and what appear to be related reverse currency wars are non-trivial reasons why the market has declined, the VIX is over 30 (rear view?) and many are fearful.

* Investor sentiment remains sour but, along with higher stock prices has begun to improve. Specifically I would note that the S&P Oscillator turned positive at Friday's close. That's a caution sign for me.

* The yield on the U.S. 2-Year Note is unchanged this morning after advancing dramatically over the last few months. The yield on the 10-Year was up big on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday but was -2 bps this morning - now at 4.194% and up by over +60 basis points in the last month. The 10-year U.K. gilt yield is -17 basis points.

* Market inflation data have noticeably moderated, softening labor and commodities in recent months. In the last few days I have highlighted the imminent weakness in rental and home prices, which work with a lag in the data. Mortgage rates of 7% will hand homeowners a bum deal and I now believe that home price drops will accelerate relative to consensus expectations. (Home price data tomorrow). This morning soft commodities are mixed. Brent oil was -$1.24 per barrel to $92.27 - as noted I have been shorting OIH.

"Workin' on our night moves
Trying to lose the awkward teenage blues
Workin' on our night moves
In the summertime
And oh the wonder
Felt the lightning
And we waited on the thunder
Waited on the thunder."

- Bob Seger, "Night Moves"

The market (and money) never sleeps -- and neither do I, it appears!

I described the importance that overnight futures trading holds for me here. It is a guidepost to my strategy in the regular trading session.

Moreover, the overnight/early morning futures hold opportunities as they are (1) inefficient, though liquid, and (2) it seems fear and greed is often exaggerated outside the regular trading session.

S&P futures are now slightly lower after having spiked higher most of the evening.

In recent weeks, during these volatile markets, I have kept a bead on volatility as well as currency rates. In Thursday's decline, VIX dropped by nearly one handle and, on Friday dropped again - proving to be a good tip off to the rally in equities. This morning VIX was up by +0.89 to 30.58. The VIX has been stubbornly high over the last two weeks and remains so. Importantly, if you watch my trades I am using the elevated VIX to take in larger premiums in my short calls and puts and in putting on my SPY $370 straddle.

Gold has recently shown some life after being weak for months. This morning it is down by about $5.

Brent oil was -$1.20 to $92.24/barrel. Late last week I shorted a small position in VanEck Oil Services ETF and I added on Friday.

Bond yields continue to represent the greatest risk to equities - the action is quiet this morning. With rates spiraling ahead equities grow harder to value. Bond yields, the equity market's nemesis, are likely responsible for a large portion of the market's drubbing this year As noted, this morning yields are slightly lower in both US and the UK.

The S&P Oscillator has finally moved positive - at 0.16% - after being in the range of -3% to -4% for about 10 days. The oscillator has been a good short-term trading tool over the last few months! When the oversold is extreme I tend to be more of an aggressive buyer and vice versa.

Cryptocurrencies are lower/uninteresting again, with uninspiring action on little volume, Bitcoin was at $19,350 and the conversation (and FIN TV specials/interviews - no Mooch or Saylor) have been nonexistent in recent weeks. This asset class is "off the tape" and I continue to have zero interest in it.

S&P futures peaked at +51 and bottomed at -27. At 5:58 a.m. ET futures were +3 handles.

Nasdaq futures peaked at +165 and bottomed at -90. At 5:59 a.m. ET futures were -103 handles.

Here is a synopsis (link) of some of my columns I believe were important, or in the event you were out yesterday. The principal intent is to review the logic of my market moves and other factors:

The Market With No Memory From Hour to Hour 

Fed Rate Slowdown? 

The Better Cannabis "Look"

Walt's Wit and Wisdom - Why the Case of GMand the Fable of the Fishing Boat May Apply to Tech Stocks Today

Back to the Scene of the Crime - Buying PARA 

Follow the Yellow Brick Road (Cannabis, Banks and Transports) 

A Lower VIX as a Signpost

Here were Friday's trades. This section provides transparency and a further record in memorializing my good and bad investments - frankly, there are a lot of disingenuous actors who smile and get away in the business media with disastrous recommendations of individual stocks and in piss poor market projections:

* Oct 21, 2022 ' 07:08 AM EDT DOUG KASS

Buying More SPY and QQQ

As noted in 'Night Moves,' I am aggressively buying SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) in the premarket.

My opening missive, which I am currently writing, explains why (hint: think Wally Deemer)...

Break in.

Tesla's (TSLA) shares are getting hit in the premarket after the company cuts the prices of cars in China.

Crazy overnite futures session... more to come.