I am taking off some of my trading long rentals now, with S&P cash +90 handles - trading around core.  

And I am calling it a day.

Good day, good week.

Thanks to our editors for helping out with my large volume of columns for my Diary.

Thanks to our subs for providing me with this platform and reading my stuff.

Enjoy the evening.

Be safe.

On margin debt.

Taking a starter position in Paramount Global  (PARA) .

Low conviction.

More next week.

* With cannabis, transports and banks

"We're off to see the Wizard
The wonderful Wizard of Oz
We hear he is a whiz of a wiz
If ever a wiz there was
If ever, oh ever a wiz there was"

- We're Off to See The Wizard

Do you suppose I will meet any wild animals?

Animals that eat straw?

A Master Hedge, perhaps? 

Cannibas, transports and banks... oh my! 

Cannibas, transports and banks...oh my!

Just a cup of coffee with one of the Wizards I admire, back in an hour!

Banks doing their job and new long (FITB) is particularly strong.

Again for emphasis, the AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) and the rest of the individual cannabis equities have a different and more favorable "look."

The VIX was -0.80 yesterday and is down another -0.70 today - I highlight VOL every morning in my "Futures" column. 

A positive signpost. 

I added to my straddle this morning.

The market has been remarkably volatile this week.

I have given my all over the last several days - trying to be creative, analytical and even starting up a couple new featured columns.

I would appreciate any ideas, recommendations and constructive criticism you have of the Diary so I can continue to provide value (added).

TGIF.

It was quite a spectacular move from the lows of the day.

The market has sold off, but "wants" to move higher - but the weight of interest rates remain.

* My long time pal and associate at Putnam Management in the 1970s was full of gems and made the truest and funniest reference to General Motors

* His story has an important bearing on my decision to now increase my holdings in tech stocks (especially social media)

* Back in 1972, Wally authored an extraordinary book on technical analysis - it's a must read!

* A lot of SNAP's woes relate to company specific issues

"I'm glad General Motors stock didn't go down in vain."

- Walt Deemer, technical analyst for The Putnam Management Company - this quote by Wally was said back in 1975. 

Throughout 2022 I have avoided the carnage in tech stocks - which I thought were overvalued and were subject to a multiple reset lower based on higher interest rates and a "pull forward" to earnings. 

Over the last 12 months I have watched confident and unrepentant analysts, money managers, strategists and commentators rationalize their large and growing investments in technology day after day. 

In the beginning, their optimism was based on strong relative and absolute EPS growth rates. As interest rates rose and fundamental (macroeconomic) headwinds appeared, the argument moved to "growth at a reasonable price" as the FANG stocks and others grew toothless: 

These self assured and unapologetic actors, with unattractive/negative alphas and investment returns, rarely retreated in their optimism despite these samplings of share price declines of some of the most popular large cap tech equities: 

* (META) has fallen from $353 to $126.

* (AMZN) (split-adjusted) has fallen from $188 to $114.

* (GOOGL) has fallen from $151 to $98.

* (MSFT) has fallen from $348 to $224.

* (NVDA) has fallen from $346 to $120.

* (PYPL) has fallen from $255 to $83.

* (NFLX) has fallen from $701 to $266.

* (SHOP) has fallen from $176 to $28.

* (SPOT) has fallen from $305 to $85.

* (ROKU) has fallen from $333 to $55.

* (RBLX) has fallen from $141 to $41. 

The carnage in secondary tech stocks (some of which I have been short) has been even more brutal than the above. 

Over the last ten days to two weeks - and for the first time in over a year - I have slowly initiated a small position in tech stocks:

Oct 12, 2022 ' 12:15 PM EDT DOUG KASS

It's Time to Expand My Tech Holdings

* I am expanding tech exposure after essentially being net short most of the year

I have avoided the carnage in tech stocks this year - which I thought were overvalued and subject to a multiple reset based on higher interest rates and a "pull forward" to earnings.

To be technical, I did have two profitable and short-lived investment forays into CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Snowflake (SNOW) , and two to three good trades in Microsoft (MSFT) .

And, in actuality, I benefited from the bear market in tech in 2022 as I have been net short (RBLX) , (BLI) , (ROKU) , (CVNA) , (DNA) , (SNBR) , (DWAC) and (HOOD) , among others.

I recently moved to a 5% net long weighting in tech - (QQQ) , (AMZN) , (GOOGL) , (META) , (PINS) , MSFT.

I have been slowly adding to QQQ, PINS and AMZN - and I am up to about a 7% net long exposure in technology: QQQ, META, MSFT GOOGL, PINS and AMZN.

I am very close to making the decision of moving up to a 10% weighting.

Snap Spits the Bit

Last night's awful release of Snap's (SNAP) quarterly results were accompanied by further weakness in tech and social media stocks after the close of trading on Thursday.

Sentiment towards the group has gradually, along with lower stock prices, grown ever more cautious as competition increases and secular growth slows. Now investors have become downright fearful.

Yes, the macro headwinds facing social media stocks - reduction in ad spend - are real, but it is important to note that those challenges should have been known for months, and to the observant analyst it should not be a surprise.

Along these lines, it is also important to note that much of SNAP's problems when compared to the social media giants are idiosyncratic:

* Weakest product offerings

* Terrible leadership, and a recent loss of key management

* A history of poor guidance

* Inferior brand/ad position - "the experiment is over" as advertisers lose faith

* Punished by the IDFA impact from Apple (AAPL)

I aggressively bought shares of Alphabet, Pinterest (PINS) and Meta in the after hours yesterday. 

And Now the Rest of the Story

To understand the reasons why I am growing more aggressive in adding to my tech holdings, I want to tell you all two stories.

This gets me to a column I wrote more than eight years ago, "The Gospel According to the Prophet of Port St. Lucie" in which Wally Deemer provides some sage observations about General Motors (GM) and some other subjects:

I am proud to have endorsed the front cover of Walt's book.

But first, some details on how I met Walt.

Back in the mid-1970s, I was working for Larry Lasser, then director of research, Marty Hale (RIP, my friend) and Jerry "The Chief" Jordan who ran the aggressive funds at The Putnam Management Company in Boston. Larry and The Chief were tough to work for, but never in my career did I learn so much as under their tutelage. And I will forever be grateful for that.

At that time, Walt Deemer was the technical analyst at Putnam. He was deeply respected, having learned his craft from the best there ever was, Bob Farrell, Merrill Lynch's legendary technical analyst.

My favorite story about Walt was back in 1975, when General Motors (GM) cut its dividend, and two of Putnam's portfolio managers in total panic wanted to sell the stock. In fact, they were apoplectic after the announcement. Walt, a man of dry wit and strong technical moorings, remarked in the halls of Putnam that morning (repeatedly so that all could hear), "I'm glad General Motors stock didn't go down in vain."

Walt turned out to be very right on General Motors' shares. (He usually turned out right!) After the dividend cut, the shares subsequently doubled in 1975 and added another 47% in 1976.

The Fable of the Fishing Boat

Then there was the time in 1978 when the bear market was taking its toll on Putnam's holdings. Walt just couldn't make the portfolio managers understand that bear markets trump even the best fundamentals.

So he circulated the following memorandum to Putnam's investment department, which he considers the best thing he ever wrote:

Once upon a time, there was a big fishing boat in the North Atlantic. One day the crew members noticed that the barometer had fallen sharply, but since it was a warm, sunny and peaceful day, they decided to pay it no attention and went on with their fishing.

The next day dawned stormy and the barometer had fallen further, so the crew decided to have a meeting and discuss what to do.

"I think we should keep in mind that we are fishermen," said the first to speak. "Our job is to catch as many fish as we can; that is what everyone on shore expects of us. Let us concentrate on this and leave the worrying about storms to the weathermen."

"Not only that," said the next, "but I understand that the weathermen are ALL predicting a storm. Using contrary opinion, we should expect a sunny day and, therefore, should not worry about the weather."

"Yes," said a third crew member. "And keep in mind that since this storm got so bad so quickly, it is likely to expand itself soon. It has already become overblown."

The crew thus decided to continue with their business as usual.

The next morning saw frightful wind and rain following steadily deteriorating conditions all the previous day. The barometer continued to fall. The crew held another meeting.

"Things are about as bad as they can get," said one. "The only time they were worse was in 1974, and we all know that was due to the unusual pressure systems that were centered over the Middle East that won't be repeated. We should, therefore, expect things to get better."

So the crew continued to cast their nets as usual. But a strange thing happened: the storm was carrying unusually large and fine fish into their nets, yet at the same time the violence was ripping the nets loose and washing them away. And the barometer continued to fall.

The crew gathered together once more.

"This storm is distracting us way too much from our regular tasks," complained one person, struggling to keep his feet. "We are letting too many fish get away."

"Yes," agreed another as everything slid off the table. "And furthermore, we are wasting entirely too much time in meetings lately. We are missing too much valuable fishing time."

"There's only one thing to do," said a crew member. "That's right!"

"Aye!" they all shouted.

So they threw the barometer overboard.

(Editor's Note: The above manuscript, now preserved in a museum, was originally discovered washed up on a desolate island above the north coast of Norway, about halfway to Spitsbergen. That island is called Bear Island and is located on the huge black and white world map on the wall in Putnam's "Trustees Room" where weekly investment division meetings took place.)

Bottom Line

Tech stocks have had a dramatic decline in share price over the last 12 months.

Like Wally Deemer's General Motors and Fishing Boat stories, the share price of tech stocks, in general, and of social media stocks have not fallen in vain.

Bull markets are borne out of bad news - SNAP has provided an explanation point to the bad news.

With the recent share price declines, an unusually positive upside reward vs. downside risk has likely emerged - and I am opportunistically raising my tech exposure now.

Warren Buffett once famously said, "Price is what you pay, value is what you get."

I want to close by repeating what I view as my buddy/friend/pal Walt Deemer's most famous words of wisdom, and something I repeat in my monthly "Levels" column - these words are always relevant, perhaps even more so in today's markets.

"When the time comes to buy, you won't want to."

Skate to where the puck is going and not to where it has been.

To me, the rally that we just saw from the lows could be a preview ahead.

The WSJ reports the Fed may slowdown the pace of interest rates. 

This is the reason for the sharp rally from the premarket lows.

There were the pre-market percent movers at 8:30 am:

View Chart »View in New Window »

Upside

(CSX) +3% earnings
(BJRI) +5% earnings
(ALV) +4% earnings
(UFPI) +6% earnings
(VRE) +24% receipt of unsolicited proposals at $16.00/shr
(SLB) beats, guides Q4 Rev and margins higher q/q

Downside

(SNAP) -27% earnings/flat Q4 outlook
(THC) -14% earnings
(RHI) -15% earnings
(WHR) -4% earnings
(IMUX) -60% re-planned Phase 1b interim analysis of IMU-935 in psoriasis patients confounded by high placebo rate
(HCA) -2% earnings
(UAA) -3% earnings
(AXP) earnings/guidance
(TWTR) US gov security review concerns
(VZ) -1.7% earnings/guidance

JPMorgan on PINS:

• PINS (Neutral, $26 PT). PINS reports 3Q22 earnings Thursday, 10/27 after-market with the 4:30pm ET conf call available at http://investor.pinterestinc.com [investor.pinterestinc.com]. PINS stock has held up better than peers of late, with shares +15% since 2Q earnings vs. SPX -11%. While 2Q results were better than feared, we largely believe the recent share price out-performance has been driven by excitement around: 1) new CEO Bill Ready; & 2) activist pressure from Elliott Mgmt-the combination of which may create a floor for the stock. Regarding fundamentals, we also appreciate: 1) early signs of MAU stabilization last quarter; 2) PINS' lower exposure to Apple changes & TikTok competition; & 3) mgmt's ambition for a couple hundred bps of EBITDA margin next year. Into 3Q, our 3rd-party Apptopia download data shows improvement. We model MAUs +4M Q/Q to 437M, though expect there could be some upside, with Street at 440M. By region, we are also looking for stabilization in US&C. On revenue, our industry checks remain mixed. On the one hand, we know PINS started the quarter growing faster than its +MSD% guidance range, embedding some conservatism even on easier comps.

• We also anticipate PINS may be shifting out of the experimental budget phase for marketers & expect the platform likely benefitted from Prime Day. But on the other hand, we suspect there are pockets of CPG that are still challenged by supply chain & consumer spending. And while SNAP saw improvement into August vs. July, we believe some of those verticals (i.e. entertainment & streaming) are not as big on PINS. Net/net, we model 3Q revenue +2% Y/Y to $648M, assuming macro worsened throughout 3Q, and SNAP growth decelerated materially from August to September. Into 4Q, we model revenue -3% Y/Y to $819M, and the macro environment remains choppy, likely more so for brand spending.

• Shifting to expenses, we would not be surprised for mgmt to trim its 2022 35-40% non-GAAP opex growth outlook some, even coming off of the strong 1H22 hiring base. We model 3Q Adj. EBITDA of $38M (5.8% margin) vs. Street at $45M (6.8% margin), with non-GAAP Opex +12% Q/Q (vs. mgmt's ambition for +LDD% Q/Q). For 4Q, we model Adj. EBITDA of $157M (19.1% margin) vs. Street at $189M (21.2% margin). On the call, we look for color on: 1) the transition to Idea Pins & progress of Idea Ads; 2) latest shopping initiatives; 3) int'l monetization; & 4) learnings from popular collage app Shuffles.

From Charlie:

From The Divine Ms M - I agree, most of the impact is more on trading of other social media companies than the fundamentals (as (SNAP) has issues particular to itself):

As noted in Night Moves, I am aggressively buying SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) in the premarket.

My opening missive, which I am currently writing, explains why (hint: think Wally Deemer)...

This daily feature is like inside baseball. I try to show you and write about what I believe thoughtful hedge fund managers are looking at when they awake, setting the stage for their strategy in the day. The market is a complicated mosaic and the more info you have the better trader and investor you will be!

* "All investment roads lead to interest rates" has been demonstrated recently and again this morning. While there has been some delinkage in the last few days -- the absolute level of domestic interest rates is weighing on equities -- it raises the cost of capital and the risk-free rate of return used in discounted dividend models. I continue to believe that we are at the terminal stage of the rate advance. I am a buyer of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) and Treasuries.

* Stock futures were lower most of the evening and early morning session,- reflecting the jolt in social media stocks that accompanied Snapple's (SNAP) results (after the close). (A possible Biden administration review of Musk's Twitter (TWTR) acquisition is also hurting equities). Though futures are lower, in the market with no memory from hour to hour and day to day, it is still early in the day.

* The U.K. and the European Union's economic and financial uncertainties -- of taming inflation on one hand and resuscitating economic growth on the other -- remain the concern du jour. As I wrote Monday, who would have thought several months ago, that U.K. policy would be the tail that wags the U.S. market's dog? Anyway, this results in me looking at U.K. gilt yields and the pound's value when I arise at 4 am, even before reading about the baseball playoffs. (Valdez was unhittable last night!) MLB Playoff Tracker: Astros Take 2-0 Lead in ALCS (msn.com). This morning sterling is weaker and gilt bond yields are higher (+13 basis points), likely contributing to the futures drop.

* A new losing skein in the U.S. markets seems likely to continue today. I continue to see this as bottoming action..

* As mentioned, I remain in the camp of a successful test in here as noted in my opening missive last Tuesday, on Bloomberg early last week and in my opener on Tuesday (Why I Remain Optimistic on Both Stocks and Bonds) -- though it doesn't have to be a straight line higher! I also had mentioned that I spoke to Lee Cooperman last Tuesday night and he mentioned that two technicians he speaks to and respects are looking for a rally over the near term. They were sorely wrong on Friday! But very right on Monday.

* The unprecedented instability of currencies and interest rates continues to underscore the likely end of the salad days of easy financial conditions and holds the key to the prospective course of global equity markets during the near term. Though I think we can move higher, elevated short-term interest rates remain a market hurdle and a restriction for meaningful gains from here. With VIX high, that is why I like the S&P straddle I put on this week.

* The U.S. dollar is almost at an all-time high this morning. Overnight, non-U.S. currencies, especially the pound and the Eurodollar, declined against the US dollar. The recent climb in overseas interest rates is the byproduct of ill-timed (2021-2022) and now hawkish monetary policy, and what appear to be related reverse currency wars are non-trivial reasons why the market has declined, the VIX is over 30 (rear view?) and many are fearful.

* Investor sentiment has been sour and the bears I speak to are very emboldened now; in the last week bears are digging in their feet. As mentioned, previous bullish strategists -- Goldman, J.P. Morgan and others -- are now confidently bearish, bulls are now talking about limited downside and not so much about the upside, and put buying set a record three weeks ago Friday. AAII Bears are at March 2009 levels and the S&P oscillator remains in an oversold state, but down from 10 days ago... but sentiment is not a good timing tool. As mentioned early last week, traders' short hedges are at records.

* As mentioned, and for emphasis, all roads lead to interest rates. Goodbye TINA (There Is No Alternative), hello TATA (Treasuries Are the Alternative): I believe the bond rout continues to create an opportunity in both fixed income and, in the fullness of times, in equities. Depending on one's risk profile, short-dated Treasuries are compelling even though I expect a market rally.

* So, notwithstanding a spike interest rates, I am a continued buyer of stocks on weakness (which after Monday and Tuesday's robust showing are likely to be down for the third day in a row).

* The yield on the U.S. 2-Year Note is unchanged this morning after advancing dramatically over the last few months. The yield on the 10-Year was up big on Wednesday and Thursday and continues to advance on Friday by 5 basis points -- now at 4.274% and up by over 65 basis points in the last month. The 10-year U.K. gilt yield is +11 basis points.

* Market inflation data have noticeably moderated, softening labor and commodities in recent months. In the last few days I have highlighted the imminent weakness in rental and home prices, which work with a lag in the data. Mortgage rates of 7% will hand homeowners a bum deal and I now believe that home price drops will accelerate relative to consensus expectations. This morning soft commodities are broadly higher. Brent oil is -$0.87 per barrel to $91.58.

"Workin' on our night moves
Trying to lose the awkward teenage blues
Workin' on our night moves
In the summertime
And oh the wonder
Felt the lightning
And we waited on the thunder
Waited on the thunder."

- Bob Seger, "Night Moves"

The market (and money) never sleeps -- and neither do I, it appears!

I described the importance that overnight futures trading holds for me here. It is a guidepost to my strategy in the regular trading session.

Moreover, the overnight/early morning futures hold opportunities as they are (1) inefficient, though liquid, and (2) it seems fear and greed is often exaggerated outside the regular trading session.

S&P futures were lower most of the evening, reflecting the rate rise and Snapple's (SNAP) poor guidance, which impacted the swath of social media stocks.

In recent weeks, during these volatile markets, I have kept a bead on volatility as well as currency rates. In Thursday's decline, VIX dropped by nearly one handle. This morning VIX was up by only 0.29 to 30.27. The VIX has been stubbornly high over the last 10 days and remains so. Importantly, if you watch my trades I am using the elevated VIX to take in larger premiums in my short calls and puts and my straddle put on yesterday, as well as putting on a straddle.

Gold, which has collapsed in recent weeks, continues its southerly route and is lower by $8.40. I still can't work it up to buy precious metals.

Brent oil is -$0.57 to $91.27/barrel. Late yesterday I shorted a small position in VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH) at around $264. (Note: There was universal optimism on OIH/energy stocks on the game shows on FIN TV after the close)

Bond yields continue to represent the greatest risk to equities, accounting for a portion of this morning's weakness. With rates spiraling ahead equities grow harder to value. Bond yields, the equity market's nemesis, are likely responsible for a large portion of the market's drubbing this year As noted, this morning yields are higher in the US and UK.

The S&P Oscillator stands at -3.01% (still oversold) -- it has been range bound since last Wednesday. The oscillator has been a good short-term trading tool over the last few months! When the oversold is extreme I tend to be more of an aggressive buyer and vice versa.

Cryptocurrencies are lower again, with uninspiring action on little volume, Bitcoin just broke $19,000 and the conversation (and FIN TV specials/interviews -- no Mooch or Saylor) have been nonexistent n recent weeks. This asset class is "off the tape" and I continue to have zero interest in it.

S&P futures peaked at +4 and bottomed at -28. At 6:40 a.m. ET futures were -22 handles. (In premarket trading I added to SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) at $363.13).

Nasdaq futures peaked at -4 and bottomed at -127. At 6:42 a.m. ET futures were -103 handles. (In premarket trading I added to Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) at $266.66).

Here is a synopsis of some of my columns I believe were important, or in the event you were out yesterday. The principle intent is to review the logic of my market moves and other factors:

Partisanship: In Our Markets and Elsewhere RealMoney (thestreet.com)

Getting Longer on the Sell Off RealMoney (thestreet.com)

Why Fight the Fed? RealMoney (thestreet.com)

New Bank Position RealMoney (thestreet.com)

All Investment Roads Lead to Interest Rates RealMoney (thestreet.com)

Here were Thursday's trades. This section provides transparency and a further record in memorializing my good and bad investments - frankly, there are a lot of disingenuous actors who smile and get away in the business media with disastrous recommendations of individual stocks and in piss poor market projections:

* Oct 20, 2022 ' 10:30 AM EDT DOUG KASS

Today's Trades

* In premarket and opening...

Added to (MSOS) $10.60, (PNC) $150.55, (UAL) $28.90 and (TLT) $95.01.

* Initiated at buy in FITB $31.13.

* Oct 20, 2022 ' 01:18 PM EDT DOUG KASS

SPY, QQQ Adds

I added to (SPY) $366.94 and (QQQ) $270.15. 

Oct 20, 2022 ' 04:55 PM EDT DOUG KASS

SNAP to it! I'm Adding to GOOGL, META, PINS

Off of the horrific (SNAP) release (after the close) I am adding aggressively to relatively small positions in (META) $125.21 and (GOOGL) $97.48.

I am also adding to a large position in (PINS) $21. 

SNAP's woes impact the trading in these stocks more than their business, imho. 

More tomorrow. 

* In all the chaos surrounding the Snapple release I failed to mention that late in the day I shorted OIH at $264. (Mea culpa!)

* As noted above, I have added to my SPY $363.13 and QQQ $266.66 holdings in premarket this morning. I am also bidding/adding to TLT.

Coming up in my opener... the wisdom of Wally Deemer as it relates to social media stocks and why I am aggressively buying Alphabet (GOOGL) and Meta Platforms (META)  amid this weakness.
__________

Long SPY, QQQ, PINS, META, GOOGL, FITB, MSOS, PNC, UAL, TLT, Short SPY calls and puts, QQQ calls, MSOS calls.

Housing: Woe is me!

From Bramo:

This chart is a valuable tool for short-term traders:

View Chart »View in New Window »