All right folks, that's it for me today as I've got the Action Alerts PLUSOctober Members-Only call Thursday that I need to prep for along with Bob Lang plus one of the portfolio's holdings is reporting before the market open.

But I'll be back here tomorrow. See you all in the early a.m.

I started today off saying the likelihood of a Fed pivot was rather slim given the data, and as we approach the market close, here's what San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly had to say about it when appearing on Bloomberg today:

"The American people -- they need confidence that we're resolute," she said. If they see core inflation rising and the job market not cooling, "well, that's not very comforting to the American people, and I think then that the downshifting on the tightening would be a much harder decision to make."

Daly went on to say that Fed watchers are confusing the Fed's eventual slowing of hikes with a pivot, and said she and her colleagues were committed to cooling demand to sufficiently slow inflation.

After today's close, the only earnings report on the docket is Resources Connection (RGP) and it is expected to deliver EPS of $0.49 up from $0.43 a year ago.

Thursday morning, however, we have ConAgra (CAG) , Constellation Brands (STZ) and McCormick & Co. (MKC) . Following reports that Kraft Heinz (KHC) will boost prices yet again later this month and comments out of Lamb Weston (LW)  today, I'll be looking to see if the others follow suit as well.

For those that missed the Lamb Weston comments I'm referring to, on its earnings conference call the company said it "made good progress in increasing price/mix through price escalators included in multiyear contracts, while also securing some price adjustments outside of these agreements" and that its price/mix was up 19% as it continued to benefit from "product and freight pricing actions."

The supplier of frozen potato products also shared that its volumes for the quarter were impacted by softer restaurant trends in the casual dining and full-service categories. Something to think about before scooping up shares of Red Robin (RRGB) or Darden (DRI) .

I see Sarge has a piece today on Elon Musk and his X, the everything app, as well as an interesting trade idea.

What some many not know is back in 2000, Musk's X.com and Confinity merged and the company was later renamed PayPal (PYPL) ahead of its 2022 IPO.

A great read on that was written by Jimmy Soni in a book titled, "The Founders."

As if any investor needs a reminder to have some cybersecurity exposure in their portfolio:

The City of Tucson, Arizona disclosed a data breach affecting the personal information of more than 125,000 individuals. This joins a long and growing list of these type of events, with the attacker exfiltrating an undisclosed number of files containing sensitive information.

The market has clawed its way back even though the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model now sees GDP for 3Q 2022 at +2.7%, up from its prior forecast of +2.3%. Not sure how this fits into the Fed pivot narrative especially as the CME FedWatch Tool probability for a 75-basis point rate hike at the November meeting continues to move higher. That same tool shows growing confidence in another 50-basis point hike.

However, remember that we have the September jobs report on Friday, and also the September CPI and PPI data next week. Plenty of time for the CME FedWatch tool to move around.

Some interesting findings out of the Dallas Fed that found "a majority of employed workers' real (inflation-adjusted) wages have failed to keep up with inflation in the past year. For these workers, the median decline in real wages is a little more than 8.5 percent. Taken together, these outcomes appear to be the most severe faced by employed workers over the past 25 years."

It's that time. Time to refuel for the second half of the trading day.

As I do that, here are some of the articles that I'll be reading given the holdings in the Action Alerts PLUSportfolio and some of the candidates we are taking a look at:

'We Were Already Stretched Thin:' A Nursing Shortage Is Straining D.C.-Area Hospitals

Visualizing The European Union's Aging Population by 2100

Kraft-Heinz is increasing prices again

How 5G can enable a future of connected vehicles

Xydrobe to launch 'world's first luxury VR shopping universe'

The role of vertical farming in efficient and sustainable food systems

The greater-than-expected production cut out of OPEC+ led the the Action Alerts PLUS portfolio to make a trade this morning.

We continue to be concerned about supply issues in the coming months, especially as the Eurozone ban on Russian oil comes into play in early December.

The morning's economic data is in and, in my view, it says there is little reason to expect a Fed pivot anytime soon.

The S&P Global US Services PMI was revised slightly higher to 49.3 for September vs. the Flash reading of 49.2, but even though it marked the third month of contraction in the data, price increases continued even though the pace slowed further.

Turning to the ISM Services Index, it inched lower to 56.7 in September from 56.9 in August, but the real takeaway was the rather modest decline in the Prices component. Per the report, food, electrical components, labor, chips, and transportation were all cited of areas of rising pressures while fuel and steel were mentioned as declining during the month.

From an Action Alerts PLUS portfolio perspective, we'll continue to watch those falling steel prices as it could spell some margin relief in the coming quarters for Deere & Co. (DE) .

Hey folks, I'm stepping away for a short bit to tape today's Action Alerts PLUSDaily Rundown.

When I get back, we'll discuss OPEC+ and related comments, plus the September PMI figures.

Ford (F) : Upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley (MS) : Downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Atlantic Equities

Airbnb (ABNB) : Initiated with an Outperform at Bernstein

Taiwan Semiconductor  (TSM) : Named as top pick at Morgan Stanley

Goldman Sachs (GS) : Downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at Atlantic Equities

Goldman says the shorts are back.
Courtesy of Liz Ann Sonders:

U.S. mortgage rates hit 6.75%, making housing less affordable even though home prices are moving lower.

The ADP Employment Change Report is out and it showed 208.000 jobs created in September, more than the 185,000 in August and modestly ahead of the 200,000 consensus. 

The quick takeaway is it's a modest positive, but not one that is going to overly influence the day's trading given the Services PMI reports ahead and the outcome of OPEC+'s meeting.

Let's remember this is the second iteration of the data following ADP's summer tinkering with how it is calculated. In my view, and most likely others, it makes it even trickier to postulate what it means for Friday's Employment Report. Hopefully, a few more months of data and any potential correlation will emerge.

Action Alerts PLUSmembers know I've been concerned about September-quarter earnings season and the guidance to be issued. While the first reports don't really come out until next week, we're on watch for earnings pre-announcements and this morning brings two more that we can add to the growing pile:

Consumer product company Helen of Troy (HELE) now sees EPS of $9-$9.40 for its 2023 vs. the $10.06 consensus with corresponding revenue of $2.00 billion-2.05 billion also below the $2.17 billion consensus. Those are the numbers but here is what jumps out in the earnings press release:

"... we see consumers increasingly adjusting their spending patterns in response to rising inflation and the impact of higher interest rates, particularly in our premium segments in some categories. Additionally, retailers continue to adjust their inventories to better align with their updated sales forecasts."

Odds are Helen of Troy isn't the only one that will be saying this in the coming weeks.

Schnitzer Steel (SCHN) issued downside guidance for its August quarter with EPS now expected to be $0.42-$0.47 vs. the $0.88 consensus. Per the company, the sharp decline in selling prices for recycled metals is expected to lead to both a compression in metal spreads and an adverse impact from average inventory accounting of approximately $23 per ferrous ton. Average net ferrous and nonferrous selling prices are expected to decrease from the third quarter by 28% and 7%, respectively.

Bad for Schnitzer but falling steel prices should be a boon to companies that make heavy equipment, like Action Alerts PLUSholding Deere (DE) and the like.

A few days ago the speculation was OPEC+ would cut under 1 million barrels per day. Now as the group gathers, it reportedly is considering an output cut as big as 2 million barrels per day, roughly 2% of world supplies. 

We're long Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) shares over at Action Alerts PLUSgiven the forthcoming European Unionban on seaborne imports of Russian oil that goes into effect this December.

Good morning, Daily Diary readers! I'm Chris Versace, filling in for Doug today. 

While we have a tiny list of companies reporting earnings here on Wednesday, we have a plate full of economic data that focus on the Services sector, but as we all know it will be what's said about pricing that catches investor eyes. 

US equity futures point to the market giving back some of its gains over the last two days, but we'll need to revisit them once we have the September ADP Employment Change report in hand, one that gets published at 8:15 a.m. ET. 

Go fill up that cup of coffee, tea or whatever go juice you need and I'll see you back here shortly.