DAILY DIARY
Closing Breadth, Biggest Movers and Heat Map
Here is the closing breadth, biggest movers and heat map:
Breadth
View Chart »View in New Window »
Movers
View Chart »View in New Window »
Heat Map
View Chart »View in New Window »
Microsoft
I guess I was a week early in last week's Trade of the Week - Microsoft (MSFT) .
Programming Note
All morning my office has been dealing with some connectivity problems related to the storm.
Thanks for being patient.
Midday Musings From Sir Arthur Cashin
This looks very much like a bear market bounce. After having sold off much of last week and becoming broadly oversold, the market benefitted from the reversal on the British taxes and the top in yields, prompted by the flight to safety over the weekend amid rumors of financial stresses and strain.
So, without a microscope, it would appear that we started out with the flight to safety bringing a bid under equities along with the movement in oil helping the energy sector. Then, without any real substantiation, it appeared that a bout of short covering kicked in and, then at 10:00 a.m., the ISM data was weak enough (raising hope of cautioning the Fed) and, more importantly, prices paid seemed to soften, reinforcing the hypothesis that inflation may have peaked and that seemed to light the afterburners a bit and took us to the session highs so far.
Markets are now beginning to reassess slightly, but they do look reasonably steady here. We think a key will be the S&P close today. If they close below 3636, it will be bad or will this be one of those bear market bounces that last for several days or maybe two weeks. We will wait and see.
Interestingly enough, the rumormongers don't appear to be agitating much about the imminent 11:30 meeting of the Fed Board of Directors. You will recall on Friday, they pointed out that it was an "expedited" meeting. Not open to the public with the gossip about financial institutions over the weekend. You would have thought that they were going to drum up excitement about the meeting and how it might mean the Fed was intervening in some way.
If it were to be so, I am told, then among the participants would have to be John William, President of the New York Fed. He is speaking in Phoenix this afternoon, but perhaps, he would be able to participate electronically, but so far, the rumormongers are elsewhere, including trying to resurrect all that tactical weapon stuff.
Meanwhile, let's go over a couple of today's numbers.
If the yield on the ten-year crawls back above 3.70%, that will be bad for the bulls. Also, they would like to see the VIX close above 30 or 31 (right now an open question).
So, we will keep looking at the yields and at the levels of the indexes.
Stay safe.
Arthur
Boockvar on the Data
My pal/buddy/friend Peter on the data:
The September ISM manufacturing index fell to 50.9 from 52.8 and that was 1.1 pts below expectations. That's the lowest since May 2020. New orders fell below 50 at 47.1 and is less than 50 for the 3rd month in the past 4. Backlogs slipped by 2.1 pts to 50.9. Inventories at manufacturers rose 2.4 pts after falling by 4 last month but of note, Customer Inventories rose 2.7 pts to 41.6. That is still well below 50 but the highest since June 2020.
Export orders fell further below 50 at 47.8 from 49.4 in August and vs 54.4 in July. Imports were little changed. Employment dropped by 5.5 pts to 48.7 and is the 4th month in 5 below 50. Supplier deliveries eased again, down by 2.7 pts to 52.4 while prices paid fell .8 pts to 51.7, the lowest since May 2020.
In terms of breadth, 9 saw growth and 7 contracted with the balance seeing no growth. That compares with 10 reporting growth and 7 seeing a contraction in August with one experiencing no change.
Bottom line, the positive is the easing in supply pressures and the drop in prices paid, although it's still a challenge broadly. The negative is that it's coming because demand is very mixed domestically and faltering abroad. With respect to the labor market, which we know has really hung in there up until now, the ISM said this on the below 50 print, "Labor management sentiment shifted in September, with a higher number of panelists' companies pausing hiring through hiring freezes and allowing attrition to reduce employment levels."
On the inventory situation, "Panelists' companies continue to aggressively manage total supply chain inventories through a pausing of order placement in response to slowing in new order rates."
The reaction to the upside in global bonds and drop in yields, and more so after this ISM figure, is at least for today, a shift towards the economic damage being done via higher interest rates, the spike in energy prices in Europe and the Chinese economic growth challenges. Also, the hope that Brainard's Friday comments is the first step to a shift to a 50 bps rate hike from the previous run of 75 is likely helping. The dollar is selling off, gold is rallying with silver in particular sharply higher.
Some notable quotables:
"Supply chain issues for all electronic components and custom build-to-print materials are in short supply due to capacity and skilled labor shortages. Energy cost continues to negatively impact freight cost." [Computer & Electronic Products]
"Concerns of global economic slowdown are growing, and (we are) experiencing some customers pulling back orders." [Chemical Products]
"Production is steady, allowing reduction of backlog amidst slightly softened demand." [Transportation Equipment]
"Almost all suppliers are experiencing lead times growth. It seems no one wants to keep inventory on hand anymore." [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]
"Supply chain constraints on many items are still an issue; staffing on the production side continues to be a significant problem. In contrast, we have more stock than needed on some key items, specifically imports, and have begun reducing open purchase orders and decreasing extended forecasts on those items in order to bleed down inventory. [Machinery]
"Business continues to be strong. Some commodities within the supply chain are starting to stabilize, while others are still causing disruption for production. Electrical and wiring components continue to cause significant issues. We cannot run as consistently as we would like." [Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components]
"Quotes and orders still strong; however, we are not able to accept any new orders for shipment for the rest of 2022 due to motor and electronic component shortages. [Misc Mfr'g]
ISM Mfr'g
New Orders
Prices Paid
TLT
New long holding, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) (+$1.90), gets jiggy:
* The yield on the two year US note is -15 bps.
* The yield on the ten year US note is -19 bps.
* The yield on the long bond is -10 bps.
Booyah!
The Fed Meeting
There has been a lot of talk about today's closed Board meeting by The Federal Reserve (see below).
I view it as a red herring.
In all likelihood the meeting is about discussing the discount rate which usually occurs after the Federal Reserve raises the Fed Funds rate:
Closed Board Meeting on October 3, 2022
Government in the Sunshine Meeting Notice
Advanced Notice of a Meeting under Expedited Procedures
It is anticipated that the closed meeting of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System at 11:30 a.m. on Monday, October 3, 2022, will be held under expedited procedures, as set forth in section 261b.7 of the Board's Rules Regarding Public Observation of Meetings, at the Board's offices at 20th and C Streets, N.W., Washington, D.C. and by audio/video conference call. The following items of official Board business are tentatively scheduled to be considered at that meeting.
Meeting Date: Monday, October 3, 2022
Matter(s) to be Considered:
1. Review and determination by the Board of Governors of the advance and discount rates to be charged by the Federal Reserve Banks.
A final announcement of matters considered under expedited procedures will be available in the Board's Freedom of Information and Public Affairs Offices and on the Board's Web site following the closed meeting.
For more information please contact: Michelle Smith, Director, Assistant to the Board, Division of Board Members at 202-452-2955.
Supplementary Information:
You may contact the Board's Web site at {http://www.federalreserve.gov} for an electronic announcement about applications and other expedited items, as well as procedural and other information about the meeting.
From The Street of Dreams
Cantor Fitzgerald:
Cannabis
Becoming More Constructive - SAFE Plus Likely
Investment Summary:
View Chart »View in New Window »
Premarket Movers
Upside
- (LOGC) +636% (to be acquired by Alexion, AstraZeneca Rare Disease for $2.07/shr in cash)
- (MYOV) +32% (Sumitomo Chemical Co., Ltd.discloses amended stake)
- (CALA) +16% (receives FDA Fast Track Designation for sapanisertib for the treatment of NRF2-mutated squamous lung cancer enrollment ongoing in Phase 2 study evaluating sapanisertib)
- (CLVS) +14% (TRITON3 Phase 3 trial of Rubraca (rucaparib) achieves primary endpoint in men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer with BRCA or ATM mutations)
- (AXSM) +8.1% (Sunosi (Solriamfetol) meets primary endpoint demonstrating improvement in cognitive function in SHARP trial in cognitively impaired patients with excessive daytime sleepiness associated with obstructive sleep apnea)
- (PBR) +7.1% (positive mention in Barron's)
- (VSAT) +6.9% (L3Harris near agreement to acquire company's government-systems unit for ~$2.0B)
- (IOT) +6.5% (momentum)
- (OMER) +4.8% (enters royalty monetization transaction with DRI Healthcare Trust)
- (PTON) +4.3% (announces deal with Hilton to put fitness bikes in US hotels)
- (OLPX) +4.2% (positive mention in Barron's)
- (BOX) +3.7% (Morgan Stanley Raised BOX to Overweight from Equal Weight, price target: $34)
- (SWN) +2.6% (Truist Raised SWN to Buy from Hold, price target: $11)
- (IDCC) +2.4% (raises Q3 guidance; enters into a patent license agreement with an undisclosed technology company)
- (FRPT) +2.3% (reportedly hired bankers for potential sale)
- (WFC) +1.2% (Goldman Sachs Raised WFC to Buy from Neutral, price target: $48)
Downside
- (APRN) -24% (disclosed entered $15M equity distribution agreement with Canaccord; reports Q3 prelim revenue)
- (CLNN) -13% (lower ahead of expected Healey ALS platform trial topline data)
- (ENFN) -6.0% (Tier1 firm Cuts ENFN to Neutral from Buy, price target: $15)
- (CS) -5.9% (extends losses to 7% following last week's CEO memo to staff saying Credit Suisse is at critical moment; said to postpone planned issue for real estate fund)
- (TSLA) -4.7% (reports Q3 deliveries, production)
Beware of Celebrity Endorsements of Stocks and Other Asset Classes
I had previously highlighted the absurdity of Matt Damon's Super Bowl (ad) sponsorship of crypto.com in Barron's earlier in the year and Kim Kardashian's entry into the private equity field in Barron's last month (Randy Forsyth's Up and Down Wall Street column):
Housing Bubble and Kim Kardashian: More Troubling News for Marketsby Randall W. Forsyth Follow Updated Sept. 9, 2022 1:31 pm ET/ Original Sept. 9, 2022 10:26 am ET
Can there be a better sign of a market top than when celebrities pile into it? Especially celebs whose main talent is to appeal to the public's tastes, or lack thereof.
While they might be acutely attuned to what's happening in fashion, music, or the movies, they can be late in latching onto financial trends to which their sole connection is an insatiable desire to wring as much money as possible from the zeitgeist.
All of which is brought to mind by news that Kim Kardashian is launching a new private-equity venture. Truth be told, I don't know what she or the rest of her reality show family is famous for, other than for being famous. But Kim has leveraged her millions of followers on social media to become a huge entrepreneur, with interests ranging from women's undergarments to faux meat. That indeed is a talent not to be discounted.
Her entry into private equity recalls other celebrities' forays into financial spheres just ahead of those markets' top ticks. Most recently, all manner of celebs plunged into cryptocurrencies, most notably actor Matt Damon, who touted Crypto.com in a now infamous Super Bowl ad in which he intoned how "fortune favors the brave."
Doug Kass, the head of Seabreeze Partners-who flagged the prevalence of cryptocurrency ads at the time-further pointed out in an email this past week how other worthies, from rapper 50 Cent to quarterback Aaron Rodgers to New York City Reality star Kim Kardashian and former Carlyle Group investor Jay Sammons have launched SKKY Partners, a private-equity firm.
Private equity hasn't suffered big losses. But, according to a Sept. 8 note from Citi Research's quantitative global macro strategy group, private asset prices tend to lag those of the publicly traded markets, which are quoted second by second on screens. Weakness in public equity markets portend lower private-asset valuations, according to the report. Kim's entrance into the rarefied world of private equity may be about as propitiously timed as Barbra Streisand's furious pursuit of initial public offerings at the height of dotcom mania in 1999. (Babs told Fortune back then that she had quadrupled her money in America Online shares, but averred that she didn't pretend to be a maven "like the guy in Barron's last week who can analyze all the companies and so forth.")
If private markets do get marked down one to two quarters after the public ones, as Citi says they have historically, that points to similar trouble for the former. I wouldn't shed any tears for Kim K. or any other A-lister able to get past the velvet ropes into private equity funds.
Programming Note
As I try to do monthly, tomorrow's opening missive will be a lengthy assessment of my market view.
I will explain fully why I have begun to raise my net long exposure, and subject to price and fundamentals, may raise my long exposure further.
The Book of Boockvar
The echoes of 2008 continue with a weekend filled with worries about a bank failure and banks that can't offload LBO bank loans.
The importance of what Lael Brainard thinks is big as she's not just Vice Chair but part of the Fed troika which also includes Powell and the NY president Williams.
Reading again what she said on Friday tells me that she does not want another 75 bps rate hike in November. "It will take time for the full effect of tighter financial conditions to work through different sectors and to bring inflation down...We also recognize that risks may become more two sided at some point. Uncertainty is currently high, and there are a range of estimates around the appropriate destination of the target range for the cycle. Proceeding deliberately and in a data dependent manner will enable us to learn how economic activity and inflation are adjusting to the cumulative tightening and to update our assessments of the level of the policy rate that will need to be maintained for some time to bring inflation back to 2%."
After rising by 9 bps on Friday, the 2 yr yield is down 9 bps today. John Williams, another member of the troika as stated, speaks this afternoon and again tomorrow. If he gives similar commentary, I believe 50 bps it will be next month.
So the freak out over UK PM Liz Truss' budget and tax cuts is calming as they decided to not go forward with the cut in the top rate to 40% from 45%. I say 'freak out' because it was complete nonsense and I couldn't believe the level of criticism as it made no rational sense whatsoever. The UK economy is more than 3 Trillion pounds in size. The tax package was all of 40b pounds annually, just above 1% of GDP.
The Biden student loan relief at $400b is about 1.6% of GDP for perspective. The $1.9 Trillion spent in March 2021 was about 7% of GDP. The pound is up for a 5th straight day and gilt yields are lower. UK assets are dirt cheap for one that has a multi yr time horizon.
As we are a week away from big bank earnings, a key thing to watch is what they plan on doing with bank deposit rates. Banks are losing deposits as people move money to much higher paying money markets. So, bank reserves at the Fed are falling rapidly and in turn, the money market funds are continuing to park money they are receiving at the Fed's reverse repo facility which as of Friday hit a new daily high of $2.426 Trillion at a yield of 3.05%.
As US bank reserves fall, it quickens the pace at which the Fed will end QT so as not to repeat the repo rate spike in 2019 that led to 'not QE' in Q4 then. Bank reserves parked at the Fed is down to $2.96 Trillion. That is 11% of GDP. The trigger in 2019 for the Fed to ramp up asset purchases was about 6.5% of GDP. To get to a similar percentage of GDP means that bank reserves have about $1.3T more to drop.
There are also real world economic implications here because bank reserves are fuel for bank lending. Money parked at the Fed's repo facility is just motionless money as it's not recycled into the economy.
US Bank Reserves parked at the Fed
Fed's Reverse Repo Facility
Ahead of the US ISM at 10am EST, here were the PMI's seen overseas. They fell m/o/m in Japan, Australia, Taiwan, Vietnam, India, and Malaysia. They rose in Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines.
Specifically on Taiwan because of their huge importance in the tech supply chain, S&P Global said "An accelerated decline in new orders, which was often linked to a deterioration in demand globally, drove a further substantial decline in production. As a result, firms cut back notably on purchasing activity, while de stocking activities intensified, with firms reducing their holdings of pre- and post-production goods at the quickest rates in over a decade."
Also, "Companies do not anticipate the situation to improve anytime soon, with business confidence regarding the yr ahead hitting its 2nd lowest level on record. This was driven by fears that global economic conditions will weaken further, and demand across key markets across Asia, Europe and the US will continue to decline in the months ahead."
Japan also reported its quarterly Tankan report for Q3. The large company mfr'g index fell to 8 from 9. The estimate was 10. The services component though did rise 1 pt q/o/q. That same mix was seen for smaller companies where mfr'g was in contraction while services improved. The end of Covid restrictions helps to explain as tourism is picking up in Japan.
The yen is busting thru 145 and this triggered another threat from the Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki who said "If we see excessively one-sided moves or something similar, we will take bold action as needed. That thinking hasn't changed." Well, that first round of intervention has failed and will continue to unless Kuroda changes his stance on YCC.
The September Eurozone mfr'g PMI was revised down a hair to 48.4 from 48.5 initially and that is down from 49.6 in August. It's now down for the 8th straight month with the war in Ukraine starting the downward spiral.
S&P Global said "Excluding the initial pandemic lockdowns, eurozone manufacturers have not seen a collapse of demand and production on this scale since the height of the global financial crisis in early 2009. The downturn is being driven primarily by the surging cost of living, which is reducing spending power and hitting demand, but soaring energy prices are also increasingly limiting production at energy intensive manufacturers. Worse looks set to come, with orders slumping at a significantly steeper rate than production is being cut." All nothing we don't already know but the reality still bites.
The UK mfr'g PMI was also revised down by .1 pt to 48.4 but that is up from 47.3 in August and vs 52.1 in July. The same challenges stated above are clear here too.
Lastly, we saw market sentiment was pretty sour last week in the II, AAII and CNN data. Over the weekend in Barron's I saw that the Citi Panic/Euphoria index is in 'Panic' level for the 2nd week. From strictly a contrarian set up, the current mood is the basis for a bounce. Anything below -.17 is considered 'Panic.'
Tweet of the Day
From Bramo - and I will have more about the mortgage markets on Tuesday morning as part of a broad discussion of my market view:
Recommended Listening
I will be on Bloomberg today at about 9:30 am with Tom Keene.
May His Memory Be a Blessing
One year ago my pal/buddy/friend passed away in a tragic accident.
Tobias was a righteous man who walked the walk and is sorely missed.
In markets like this, I/we sorely miss his commentary.
I wanted to remember Tuvia this morning by reposting a column I wrote about him 12 months ago:
Oct 04, 2021 ' 07:15 AM EDT DOUG KASS
R.I.P. Tobias (Tuvia) Levkovich
"And it's just a box of rain
I don't know who put it there
Believe it if you need it
Or leave it if you dare
And it's just a box of rain
Or a ribbon for your hair
Such a long long time to be gone
And a short time to be there..."
- Grateful Dead, Box of Rain
On Saturday morning I learned that Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup's (C) Chief US Equity Strategist, my friend and my investment confidante over the last three decades passed away.
Tobias was walking to his synagogue when he was hit by an automobile on the morning of September 1 as he crossed a street in his hometown of Hewlett, Long Island. He had been hospitalized for a month before he passed away at the age of 60 years-old on Friday.
The investment community knew him as Tobias but his family, friends and Jewish community knew him as Tuvia, which in Hebrew means "god is good."
To me, Tuvia combined the wisdom of a Byron Wien with the work ethic of a 25 year-old.
Tuvia was a special man.
Kind, humble and even tempered.
He had a sense of justice.
He sought out the good in people - and people like me sought out his advice.
He was fiercely committed and developed a personal connection with his friends, his fellow workers at Citigroup, his clients and to the many outside of the investment world.
He loved his family and community.
He was righteous, charitable and deeply religious.
He befriended everyone, the successful and the unsuccessful - it didn't matter, and developed thousands of sincere personal connections within and outside of the investment community.
He realized we live in this world not for ourselves but for others.
To be with Tuvia was a delight.
He was smart - but more importantly, he had the wisdom of the Jewish patriarchs - Abraham, Isaac and Jacob.
He was so real in a world that can be very fake.
On numerous occasions Tobias invited me to play the role of the "bear" at fancy lunches in Citigroup's executive dining room with his largest institutional clients, one of whom at every lunch would be the "bull". It was the most fun, especially with Tobias moderating.
The last time I saw Tuvia in person was before COVID at lunch in Palm Beach two years ago. Here is a picture of that lunch with Tuvia, Lee Cooperman, Jeff Greene, Jack Ablin and Jerry Jordan.
And the last thing that Tobias did for me was, not surprisingly, a favor. I was doing work on AT&T (T) and, at my request he retrieved a newly minted AT&T purchase recommendation from his research department.
As an investment professional he was always prepared. His body of work was hard hitting, logical and thorough. He was not afraid, if justified analytically, to stand out in the crowd in terms of his market view.
The day of his accident, Tobias published his last equity note - maintaining a bearish stance on the market, with a 4000 S&P year-end price target. He wrote on that day:
"Caution that proves to be wrong can cost one a career... Nevertheless, we feel compelled to stand by our analytical process."
The S&P Index had closed that day, on the month of August at 4524 and was to fall to 4307 during the month of September.
It was another one of what were hundreds of Tobias' great calls over his career.
At the funeral on Sunday the Rabbi recalled Tuvia's uniqueness in an anecdote about his last appearance on CNBC (you can watch it here) - which was the day before his car accident. In that CNBC interview Tobias appeared in his home office and behind him was a shofar. A shofar is made out of a ram's horn and is used in Jewish religious festivities and services.
I was brought to tears because I spoke to Tobias right after that interview and I had noticed the shofar. In that phone call he told me, and the Rabbi passed on his similar discussion with him, that the placement was intentional. The shofar's placement was a subliminal message - Tobias wanted it to inspire all the young Jewish professionals who had recently entered Wall Street.
I was brought to tears again when the Rabbi, at the end of the service quoted something that my Rabbi Martin Zion had previously quoted to me and his dear friends in a letter right before he died (See my column, "Keys To A Life Well Lived"):
"Who is wise? One who learns from every man ... Who is strong? One who overpowers his inclinations ... Who is rich? One who is satisfied with his lot ... Who is honorable? One who honors his fellows."
- Ben Zoma, Ethics of the Fathers
Both Tobias and Tuvia will be missed by anyone that has entered his sphere during a beautiful life of meaning and commitment.
More Night Moves: A Quick Look at Overnight Futures
* Unlike previous evenings, this weekend held few bonafide problems (declining demand for Apple products, rapid rises in bond yields etc.). The absence of adverse news releases contributed to a relatively dull overnight futures session.
* The streak of eight consecutive daily losses in the S&P may be broken today.
* When I had my dinner appetizer Sunday night at Bobby Van's in Bridgehampton, Long Island, futures were up a couple of handles. By the time the dessert was delivered S&P futures were down by nearly -30 handles.
* The unprecedented instability of currencies and interest rates continue to underscore the likely end of the salad days of easy financial conditions and hold the key to the prospective course of global equity markets during the near term.
* Overnight, non-U.S. currencies (especially the Eurodollar) behaved as have worldwide bonds, which are gently lower in yields -- the byproduct of ill-timed (2021-22) and now hawkish monetary policy, and what appear to be related reverse currency wars -- are moving multiple standard deviations from the mean.
* Investor sentiment remains sour. Previous bullish strategists - Goldman and others - are now confidently bearish, bulls are now talking about limited downside and not so much about the upside, put buying set a record a week ago Friday, AAII Bears are at March 2009 levels and the S&P oscillator remains in a deep oversold... but sentiment is not a good timing tool.
* Goodbye TINA, hello TATA ("Treasuries Are The Alternative"): I believe the bond rout continues to create an opportunity in both fixed income and, in the fullness of times, in equities. Depending on one's risk profile, short-dated Treasuries are a reasonable place to be.
* The yield on the U.S. 2-Year Note is lower by two basis points overnight after having advanced for 14/16 consecutive sessions. The yield on the 10-Year is -3 bps... the yield is now at -3.774%.
* Market inflation data has noticeably moderated, softening labor and commodities, in recent months. This morning soft commodities are higher and energy product prices have gapped higher - Brent Oil is +$3.43/barrel - after signs of proposed production cuts. But, for now the market is not focused on these factors and more focused on currencies and global bond yields.
"Workin' on our night moves
Trying to lose the awkward teenage blues
Workin' on our night moves
In the summertime
And oh the wonder
Felt the lightning
And we waited on the thunder
Waited on the thunder."
- Bob Seger, "Night Moves"
The market (and money) never sleeps -- and neither do I, it appears!
I described the importance that overnight futures trading holds for me here. It is a guidepost to my strategy in the regular trading session.
Moreover, the overnight/early morning futures hold opportunities as they are (1) inefficient, though liquid, and (2) it seems fear and greed is often exaggerated outside the regular trading session.
S&P futures are modestly higher in the early going.
In recent weeks, during these volatile markets, I have kept a bead on volatility as well as currency rates. This morning VIX is +0.64 to $32.26.
Gold, which has collapsed in recent weeks, is flat this morning. I still can't work it up to buy precious metals.
Brent oil is +$3.43 to $88.58.
Bond yields continue to represent the greatest risk to equities, and with rates spiraling ahead equities grow harder to value. Bond yields, the equity market's nemesis, are likely responsible for a large portion of the market's drubbing recently. This morning yields are a bit lower, but not materially so.
The S&P oscillator gapped higher (more negative) last Wednesday, finally breaking out of a range, and Friday's close keeps it at oversold levels. The oscillator has been a good short-term trading tool over the last few months! While I am still at only 29% net long, the oversold and other factors have me leaning to add - but I was demonstrably slow in doing that over the last two days given the unprecedented currency and rate movement. This may change soon if the rate rise abates!
Cryptocurrencies are little changed. I continue to have zero interest in the asset class.
S&P futures peaked at +18 and bottomed at -32. At 6:43 a.m. ET futures were +4 handles.
Nasdaq futures peaked at +26 and bottomed at -146. At 6:45 a.m. ET futures were -32 handles.
Here is a synopsis to some of my columns I believe were important, or in the event you were out yesterday. The principal intent is to review the logic of my market moves and other factors:
- I was out Friday and didn't write.
Here were Friday's trades:
* I added to (SPY) and (QQQ) after Friday's close - at around 7 pm.