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DAILY DIARY

Doug Kass

Managing by the Numbers: It's an Art and a Science

* I remain opportunistic, almost mechanical and unemotional in my order entry points.

I vividly remember watching Jon Gnagy's TV show, "You Are an Artist" on NBC. (And my mom bought me his drawing kit and I drew with him every week!)



Like Jon Gnagy, my "painting by the numbers" program seems to be working as I buy when the S&P Index falls into the bottom end of my anticipated trading range (3800-3850) where, in theory, upside reward dwarfs the downside risk (according to my calculus).

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To do so, it is important to be dispassionate -- buying when equities look like they are breaking down (and vice-versa).

The S&P Index closed about 25 handles above the day's low.

Nonetheless, the market's breadth was poor:

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Thanks for reading my Diary.

Enjoy the evening and get a lot of sleep, because tomorrow will be interesting and likely filled with opportunity. 

Be safe.

Position: Long SPY; short SPY calls and puts

Updating Market Internals

 At 3:30 pm:

- NYSE volume 465M shares, 7% below its three-month average, decliners lead advancers by 5:1.

- NASDAQ volume 3.12B shares, 19% below its three-month average, decliners lead advancers by 2.9:1.

- VIX index +5% at 27.20

Position: Long QQQ, SPY, Short SPY calls and puts

Digital World Acquisition

I am covering more (DWAC) on today's decline.

Position: Short DWAC

Latest Cost Basis

Here is my cost basis for my latest tranche of buying referenced two columns ago link: 

* (MSFT) $240.44

* (QQQ) $287.01

* (SPY) $382.050

* (AMZN) $121.84

Position: Long SPY, QQQ, AMZN, MSFT, Short SPY calls and puts

On My Screen

I will be on my Board call for a few more hours. 

As I glance back and forth to my screen, stocks look like they remain fragile but stable at prices that have held for an hour or so.

Position: None

With a Calculator in Hand

On the last move downward, and as the S&P cash hit 3830 -- the lower end of my projected trading range -- I added another tranche of buys.

For emphasis... my buy program on a scale lower is slow and incremental given the plethora of uncertainties in the face of the perceived improvement in upside reward vs. downside risk.

Position: Long SPY, Short SPY calls and puts

S&P Cash

S&P cash -- 3835 at the low end of the bottom of my anticipated 3800-3850 trading range -- just took out yesterday's low in the market with no memory from day to day.

Position: Long SPY, Short SPY calls and puts

TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) rallies +$1 from its morning lows.

Position: None

Minding Mr. Market

I continue to view current prices as attractive on a reward vs. risk basis. 

As written yesterday, I am more confident in higher prices ahead and less confident about the timing. 

I have continued to buy weakness and incrementally and slowly raise my net long exposure. 

I have no interest in buying strength, however. 

I have a Board meeting starting at 1 pm but its a Microsoft Teams thing, so I will be watching the market and posting on a regular basis.

Position: None

More Lessons Learned

Creating loose narratives with little substance and out of thin air in order to deliver a splashy and outlier market forecast (e.g., "rip your face apart rally") for the very near term is typically a recipe for failure. 

Unfortunately that is a constant state of our business media. 

Keep the hyperbolic and non rigorous market forecasts - which make fortune tellers look smart - away from your children and portfolios.

Position: None

Midday Musings From Sir Arthur Cashin

Higher bond yields both here and around the world continue to put pressure on equity prices. We are flirting with the lows of yesterday morning and even Friday, although so far, they have not clearly violated them.

As we noted in the pre-opening Comments, there is some irregular history of the equities finding mild buy interest and, I do mean mild, in the final two hours of the first day of a two day Fed meeting. So, we will see if any of that pops up around the close.

Now, let's go over this morning's numbers.

This morning's intraday low in the S&P was 3843, which is pretty close to the 3837 intraday low from Friday and approximately yesterday. We will keep an eye on that.

The yields remain reasonably high. The ten-year is still above 3.55% and that probably may continue pressure on equities. Bitcoin trades nervously, but not enough to spread anxiety into the equity markets.

Let's watch and see if there is any retesting of this morning's low and, more importantly, the low from Friday, which is critical and, of course, if that breaks, the ultra-critical 3815.

Some other technicals appear to be weakening. So, we will keep an eye on them too.

In the meantime, stay safe.

Arthur

Position: None

Recommended Viewing

Lee Cooperman on CNBC this morning.

Position: None

Daily Affirmations: On Captain Obvious

* Avoid consensus and "group stink"

"I am going to write a good Diary on Real Money Pro today... and I am going to help people. Because I am good enough, I am smart enough and doggone it, people like me."

- Daily Affirmations with Dougie Kass

Today's Daily Affirmations is on the obvious.

As I have written recently, it appears many of my concerns are arguably starting to be discounted as the consensus finally has adopted the aforementioned challenges that lie ahead.

This is occurring at a time in which some of those concerns are lessening (e.g. a hawkish Fed, inflation, supply chain bottlenecks, the Ukraine conflict, etc.) and as investor sentiment sours.

Buy at the sound of cannons... sell at the sound of trumpets. 

Do you really want to sell into this chart?

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I remain a contrarian and I am raising my long exposure into weakness.

I am not a licensed therapist, though.

"I deserve good things.I refuse to beat myself up. I am an attractive person. I am fun to be with."

Position: None

Market Internals

Market Internals at 10:30 am:

- NYSE volume 151M shares, 13% below its three-month average

- NASDAQ volume 940M shares, 25% below its three-month average

- VIX index +4% at 26.80

Breadth

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Biggest Movers

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Heat Map

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Position: None

On Wolf Street

Wolf Street on new vehicle inventories.

Position: None

Recommended Viewing

Sir Howard Marks! See here.

Position: None

More Morning Adds  

* (QQQ) $288.66

* (MSFT) $241.38

* (SPY) $383.37

Position: Long SPY, QQQ, MSFT, Short SPY Calls and puts

Trade of the Week - Long MSFT ($242.22)

With today's raise in the quarterly dividend rate (from $0.62 to $0.68) and both the S&P and Nasdaq Indexes over sold and back into the lower end of the forecast trading range, I am making (MSFT) buy as my Trade of the Week.

Position: Long MSFT, SPY, QQQ, Short SPY puts and calls

Long Exposure

With S&P cash (3849) back at the lower end of my expected trading range (3800-3850), I am adding long exposure.

Position: Long SPY, Short SPY calls and puts

3 Adds

Added to (SPY) $384.75, (QQQ) $288.75, and (MSFT) $241.88 on the whoosh lower.

Position: Long SPY, QQQ, MSFT, Short SPY puts and calls

New Buy (and Short) 'Levels'

* My revised levels

I don't want there to be any ambiguity about the size of my positions, or about my buy and short levels, as I strive for as much transparency as possible.

This column is a continued commitment towards that sort of disclosure.

"When the time comes to buy, you won't want to."
(March 2020)

- Walter Deemer

"When the time comes to sell/short, you won't want to." (December 2021)

- Doug Kass

I promised to update my "levels" at least once a month.

My last update was in early August.

My "official coverage list" now includes 119 names (72 longs, 47 shorts). 

The major adjustment in this month's "Levels" is a reduction in buy levels for tech/growth stocks, owing to the ramp in risk free rates of return, and an increase in buy levels for financials for the same reason.

Here are some of my new individual buy/short levels of stocks that I want to add to or reestablish on weakness, and in the case of shorts, to sell on strength:

BUYS

-- Meta (FB) $140

-- Amazon (AMZN) $125

-- Alphabet (GOOGL) $97.50

-- Papa John's (PZZA) $75

-- FedEx (FDX) $162.50

-- Hartford Financial Services (HIG) $63

-- Goldman Sachs (GS) $318

-- Twitter (TWTR) $33

-- Macy's (M) $15

-- Dillard's (DDS) $275

-- Kohl's (KSS) $26

-- Comcast (CMCSA) $33

-- Bank of America (BAC) $33

-- Citigroup (C) $52

-- JPMorgan Chase (JPM) $118

-- PNC (PNC) $168

-- Wells Fargo (WFC) $45

-- Procter & Gamble (PG) $137.50

-- RH (RH) $235

-- SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) $152

-- Silver Trust (SLV) $18

-- Kraft Heinz (KHC) $34

-- Walt Disney (DIS) $110

-- Morgan Stanley (MS) $84

-- Verizon (VZ) $40.50

-- Micron (MU) $47.50

-- Penn National Gaming (PENN) $31

-- Draft Kings (DKNG) $16.50

-- Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) $27.50

-- TreeHouse Foods (THS) $43

-- J.M. Smucker (SJM) $138

-- General Motors (GM) $36

-- Ford (F) $12.50

-- Boeing (BA) $143

-- AMD (AMD) $72.50

-- Microsoft (MSFT) $245

-- PayPal (PYPL) $90.50

-- Walmart (WMT) $132.50

-- Vanguard Value (VTV) $135

-- Vanguard Small Cap Value (VBR) $157

-- Financial Select (XLF) $33.75

-- Paramount (PARA) $22.50

- Warner Discovery (WBD) $13

-- GDS Holdings (GDS) $17.50

-- AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) $12

-- ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ) $3.50

-- XBI (XBI) $77.50

-- Tilray (TLRY) $3.25

-- Ayr Wellness (AYRWF) $4.50

-- Terrascend (TRSSF) $2

-- Curaleaf (CURLF) $3.50

-- Cresco (CRLBF) $3.50

-- Trulieve (TCNNF) $11.50

-- Verano (VRNOF) $6/25

-- Green Thumb (GTBIF) $11.75

-- FibroGen (FGEN) $11

-- AT&T (T) $16

- Invesco (IVZ) $16

-- Wynn Resorts (WYNN) $62.50

-- Alibaba (BABA) $82.50

-- Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) ($161)

-- Green Brick (GRBK) $22.50

-- Elanco (ELAN) $14.50

-- Sonos (SONO) $14

-- Ark Restaurants (ARKR) $19

-- Live Nation (LYV) $90

-- Snowflake (SNOW) $155

-- Block (SQ) $57

-- CrowdStrike (CRWD) $167

-- NXP Semiconductor (NXPI) $157 

-- Nvidia (NVDA) $128 

-- Terranova US (JOET) $26.50

SHORTS

-- Netflix (NFLX) $255

-- ARK (ARKK) $50

-- Carvana (CVNA) $40

-- FIGS (FIGS) $13.50

-- Zoom (ZM) $85

-- Tesla (TSLA) $300

-- Rivian (RIVN) $46

-- KKR & Co. (KKR) $53

-- Blackstone Group (BX) $99

-- Caterpillar (CAT) $190

-- Fastenal (FAST) $59

-- Beyond Meat (BYND) $22

-- T Rowe Price (TROW) $122.50

-- Franklin Resources (BEN) $26

-- Peloton (PTON) $14

-- Hilton (HLT) $142

-- Plug Power (PLUG) $29

-- Delta Air Lines (DAL) $36

-- United Air Lines (UAL) $41

-- Marathon Digital (MARA) $15

-- MicroStrategy (MSTR) $255

-- GameStop (GME) $100

-- AMC Entertainment (AMC) $10

-- Ginkgo Bioworks (DNA) $5

-- Digital World Acquisition (DWAC) $40

-- Robinhood (HOOD) $14

-- Krispy Kreme (DNUT) $14

-- F45 Training (FXLV) $5

-- Wayfair (W) $55

-- Mastercard (MA) $325

-- Visa (V) $202

-- American Express (AXP) $160

-- Starbucks (SBUX) $98

-- JOYY (YY) $28

-- Lightspeed Commerce (LSPD) $21

-- Sleep Number (SNBR) $41

-- Berkeley Lights (BLI) $6

-- Match Group (MTCH) $61

-- Home Depot (HD) $315

-- Royal Caribbean (RCL) $48

-- Carnival Cruise (CCL) $11

-- C3AI (AI) $17

-- Roblox (RBLX) $42

-- ROKU (ROKU) $80

-- Stryker (SYK) $227.50

-- Paccar (PCAR) $89

-- Alpha Metallurgical (AMR) $145 

-- Coinbase (COIN) $75
__________

Long MSOS, AMZN, FDX, MSFT, GTBIF, MSOS, CRLBF, TRSSF, TCNNF, VRNOF, AYRWF, TLRY, DIS, GRBK, PNC, JPM, C, BAC, WFC, FGEN, JOET.

Short FXLV, RCL, CCL, SNBR, BLI, DNUT, Short C calls, DWAC, CVNA, DNA.

Position: See above

MSFT Dividend

Break in!

(MSFT) raises its quarterly dividend by nearly 10% to $0.68 from $0.62.

I initiated a buy in Microsoft yesterday and added this morning in the premarket.

Position: Long MSFT

Premarket Movers

Upside

- (RCOR) +21% (to be acquired by Rocket Pharma in ~$2.60/shr all stock deal valued at ~$53M)
- (VRAX) +17% (introduces Monkeypox virus antigen rapid test kit)
- (ATHE) +13% (receives US FDA approval for ATH434 Investigational NDA for treatment of Multiple System Atrophy)
- (OIIM) +11% (announces receipt of a revised preliminary non-binding proposal to acquire the Company at $4.90/ADS)
- (INVZ) +9.6% (JPMorgan Chase and Co Initiates INVZ with Overweight, price target: $22)
- (CHNG) +7.4% (judge denies DOJ request to block UnitedHealth deal)
- (LAZR) +7.2% (JPMorgan Chase and Co Initiates LAZR with Overweight, price target: $30)
- (CGNX) +4.1% (raises Q3 Rev guidance)
- (AMBO) +3.2% (receives bid for company's assets in China for ~$10M)
- (NCLH) +3.0% (Truist Raised NCLH to Buy from Hold, price target: $19)
- (OUST) +2.6% (unveils cost reduction initiative to reduce gross cash spend by 15% by 2031, reduce workforce by 10%)
- (PTON) +2.0% (releases rowing machine, Peloton Row)

Downside

- (VIRI) -72% (prices 10M shares at $0.50/share; H.C. Wainwright Cuts VIRI to Neutral from Buy)
- (CLXT) -5.8% (files to sell $50M mixed shelf)
- (HIPO) -4.1% (to complete 1 for 25 reverse stock split)
- (F) -3.8% (guidance)
- (SRT) -3.2% (CSP formally withdraws acquisition proposal after it had been rejected)
- (NKE) -2.4% (Barclays Cuts NKE to Equal Weight from Overweight, price target: $110)
- (PYPL) -2.2% (Susquehanna Cuts PYPL to Net Neutral from Net Positive, price target: $100)
- (WDC) -1.6% (Deutsche Bank Cuts WDC to Hold from Buy, price target: $40)

Position: None

Morning Musings From Sir Arthur Cashin

The NYSE saw the stocks on its listing panel open very soft, shaky and nervous on Monday morning and again, they looked to be down after several days and after the heavy selloff last Tuesday. All in all, however, nowhere near anything as frightening of the Panic of 1873 and, so far, at least, it did not look to be at all systemic. We covered a good deal of that with this late morning update:

Late Morning Update 09.19.22 - The bulls benefit from a couple of things. Number one, the mildly oversold condition is inhibiting some venturesome selling, but more importantly, the fact that we did not trade below Friday's intraday low in the S&P and, the fact that the yield on the ten-year backed off the pre-opening highs has allowed some very short-term traders (probably algorithm jockeys) to dabble in looking, perhaps, for a flip. The yields will be the most important to watch as we move into the afternoon and on any weakness getting below Friday's intraday low (3837 in the S&P) will be critical.

Let's take a look at some of this morning's numbers. This morning's low in the S&P of 3838 would qualify among some cocktail napkin chartist as a retest of Friday's intraday low, which may have been what gave them a bit of an extra boost. Any weakness in the afternoon, will face those levels again. As we discussed about the yield, pre-opening, it got up to 3.52% and that had put pressure on things. Since then, we have backed off to 3.46% - 3.47%, which helps the venturesome buyers and, the fact that Bitcoin did not crack also helped the risk profile. Just to repeat myself - watch those yields carefully and, on any weakness, watch that 3837 level. Cross your fingers and stay safe.

In the first two hours after the update went out, Europe closed, and the sun went over the yardarm and stocks traded dismally back and forth with the Dow having been down over 200 points in its early trading low. The indices from the Dow on waffled back and forth around unchanged, turning in those two hours in early afternoon. Nothing dramatic came out news-wise and the market was clearly dependent on its own internals and how much people were concerned about what the ticks looked like.

Had the stochastic changed? They continued back and forth. Finally, with the bulls circling the wagons about 1:00, slowing but surely bringing them up to close very near the highs of the day. Again, it was less about geopolitical news, economic news and much more about the markets own internals. We will go through some of those technicals in a bit, but first, as we promised you a few days ago, let's go over the history, at least according to what I know, of sell on Rosh Hashanah, which will impact markets as we head into the weekend.

This is what I wrote a few years ago: Traditional September Weakness And Rosh Hashanah - Sunday evening at sundown will mark the start of Rosh Hashanah. About 60+ years ago, as I was starting out in Wall Street. I was lucky enough to be hired by a small, bright, aggressive firm where I learned unique things from some wonderful people. I thought they hired me because I was sharp, inquisitive and hard working.

Some of the older salesmen, instead, used to joke that I was the "Shabbes Goy" - the only non-Jewish employee who could then man the phones on religious holidays. It was a joke (I think) but it gave an altar boy from Jersey City a chance to learn a little Yiddish and a touch of cultural traditions. The way I learned it, you sell on Rosh Hashanah and buy back on Yom Kippur. The thesis, I was told, was that you wished to be free (as much as possible) of the distraction of worldly goods during a period of reflection and self-appraisal.

Later as I studied market cycles and economic cycles, I was struck that the oft-repeated September/October weakness (crop cycle/money float) often corresponded to the Rosh Hashanah tradition. Is it cultural coincidence or cultural overlap? Who knows! One last note on Rosh Hashanah. My late, lamented Irish mom, tended to see everything in a Celtic perspective - even Jewish New Years. She would say - "You better get up to the deli fast 'cause the Jewish people will be leaving early for 'Rose of Shannon'."

So, we will wait and see how that impacts markets on Friday and actually before Friday since we have the FOMC convening today, Tuesday morning, followed by the decision at 2:00 on Wednesday and the press conference at 2:30. I am assuming the Fed will not deviate from the widely assumed 75 bp hike. So, what will be of dramatic importance will be not only what they say in the press conference, but how it is phrased and that will make everything live and die and, as I noted in Monday's Comments, we also have the Autumnal Equinox, but that will not be occurring until 9:00 Thursday evening.

For today, it is all about internal technicals and what is happening in the global markets in reaction to their American cousins. Overnight, global equity markets are relatively cautious in front of tomorrow's FOMC press conference. Market's in Asia are generally leaning to the bulls side. Inflation perked up a bit in Japan and the Peoples Bank of China decided to just sit on rates and the markets seemed to find mild encouragement from both of those items.

In Europe, equity markets are drifting slightly lower. There is concern about inflation in Germany, particularly in the Club Med nations. Greece and Italy are showing strains in the interest rate area. Inflation in Germany is perking up. Generally, bond yields are higher as they are here in the U.S. where the ten-year looks to be breaking out above that 3.5% level and the two-year treasury, which is the most sensitive to Fed movements is closing in on 4%.

The calendar is relatively light. The FOMC has convened for the day, but all the decisions come tomorrow between 2:00 and 3:00 p.m. The feeling is that the Fed will go with the 75 bp move. The rest of today's calendar is short to non-existent. We have building permits and housing starts early in the morning, then, at 1:00 p.m., we have got a bond auction of 20-year paper, which will be followed with some interest - at least the auction results will.

The bullish effect on stocks of the Fed Drift probably will not show up until tomorrow all though, historically, in a two-day meeting, there is sometimes a little bullish up drift in the final two hours of trading Tuesday before Wednesday's decision.

We will wait and see. Again, the backend of the week is packed in with the Fed decision followed by the Autumnal Equinox and the previously noted movement to lighten up in front of Rosh Hashanah. Nevertheless, you want to stick with the drill. Stay close to the newsticker as geopolitical surprises may be easy to come by.

Keep your seatbelt fastened. Stay nimble, alert and try to stay safe and, once again, keep an eye on Bitcoin, if it breaks below $19,000, it could add to the nervousness in the equity markets.

Position: None

The Book of Boockvar

Ford reminding us all that product procurement in a timely fashion is still a problem, and it's not just semi's.

In yesterday's National Association of Manufacturers Q3 Outlook Survey, the CEO of the organization said "Three out of four manufacturers still have a positive outlook for their businesses, but optimism has certainly declined. The majority of respondents are expecting a recession this year or next, and it's clear the challenging environment is taking its toll. Manufacturers have shown incredible resilience through multiple crisis, but the challenges of inflation, supply chain strains and the workforce shortage are taking a toll."

Ford, Eastman Chemical, Huntsman, GE, Arconic, and Alcoa all agree. Tying the NAM survey with what Ford said specifically, "78.3% of manufacturing leaders listed supply chain disruptions as a primary business challenge with only 10.8% believing improvement will occur by the end of the year" said the NAM.

That said by Ford for new vehicles, Manheim yesterday said wholesale used car prices fell 2.3% in the first half of September from August. That is now basically flat y/o/y, higher by .6% seasonally adjusted. Manheim said "all major segments saw price declines, with full-size and sports cars down the most and pickups and compact cars down the least." What's going on in the housing market with affordability the major issue, the same is happening in auto's as the average price of a new car is not much different than the median income in this country.

As for used cars, they got ridiculously priced to the upside and now the cost of financing is making them even tougher to buy. Over the past two years, even with the recent moderation, the Manheim index is up 44% since February 2020 and while the index was certainly going to come back to earth, you've heard me argue why prices will stay elevated in the coming years.

Manheim Index

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Ahead of the housing data in the coming days, I've said the only question at this point is the direction of home prices. Yesterday Zillow gave its estimate and said they expect 1.2% "home value growth through August 2023." This is down from 2.4% that they expected last month and down from "the current rate of 14.1% annual growth."

They said "The downward revisions comes as a result of recent housing market indicators continuing to show buyers hanging back while affordability obstacles remain as high as they've been in recent memory...Days to pending and total inventory are climbing, while the flow of new listings is much lower than a year ago, indicating homes are lingering on the market longer without a sale." I expect outright price declines in some markets.

The Swedish Riksbank took out its monetary bazooka and launched a surprise 100 bps rate increase to 1.75% where 75 bps was expected. They said in their statement, "By raising the policy rate more now, the risk of high inflation in the longer term is reduced, and thereby the need for greater monetary policy tightening further ahead." Notwithstanding the surprise move, the Swedish Krona is down vs the dollar after initially spiking. The 2 yr Swedish yield is jumping by 11 bps to 2.54%.

This is leading to another round of bond selling in Europe and in turn the US. Also a factor was the CPI data out of Japan where the 40 yr JGB yield is retesting its July high in response. It rose by almost 3 bps overnight to 1.49%. German PPI in August spiked by 7.9% m/o/m and 46% y/o/y. Shocking figures.

Ahead of the BoJ meeting, headline CPI in Japan rose 3% y/o/y in August vs 2.6% in July and that is one tenth more than expected. The core/core rate was higher by 1.6%, one tenth more than estimate and up from 1.2% in July. Outside of the influence of VAT hikes, that is the fastest core/core rate of inflation since 1993. The yen is weaker and we'll see how Kuroda talks his way out of the criticism of current policy.

40 yr JGB Yield

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Core/Core CPI in Japan y/o/y


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German PPI y/o/y


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Taiwan said its exports in August rose 2% y/o/y and again was driven by a rise in electronics. Exports though to China and Hong Kong fell by 26%, though offset by a 7.5% increase to the US and gains to Europe, ASEAN, Japan and others. We now know the importance of Taiwanese tech exports.

Position: None

Tweet of the Day (Part Five)

Another one from Bramo:

Position: None

Premarket Trades

* Added to (MSFT) at $242.55

* Added to (QQQ) at $289.03.

Position: Long MSFT, QQQ

Tweet of the Day (Part Four)

From Liz Ann:

Position: None

Chart of the Day (Part Deux)

The highest yield on the ten year US note since 2011:

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Position: Long Treasuries

Tweet of the Day (Part Trois)

From Bramo:

Position: None

Themes and Sectors

This table is a good resource for short-term traders:

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Position: None

Tweet of the Day (Part Deux)

Position: None

Chart of the Day

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Position: None

Table of the Day

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Source: JPMorgan

Position: None

Tweet of the Day

Position: None

More Night Moves: A Quick Look at Overnight Futures

* The market (and money) never sleeps -- and neither do I, it appears!

* When I was having dinner last night, S&P stock futures were +15, now they are -20.

* Brent crude is flat at $92.

* Gold, which collapsed last week, is down again, -$3.30. I still can't work it up to buy.

* Soft commodities are flat to higher.

* Bond yields, likely responsible for the drop in futures and to the general market malaise, are again higher. The yield on the 10-Year is +5.2 basis points to 3.543%. I added to Treasuries on yield strength during the last few months.

* The S&P oscillator remains oversold but still fairly low, at -2.37% -- a level it has generally been since Sept. 12. The oscillator has been a good short-term trading tool over the last few months!

"Workin' on our night moves
Trying to lose the awkward teenage blues

Workin' on our night moves
In the summertime
And oh the wonder
Felt the lightning
And we waited on the thunder
Waited on the thunder."

- Bob Seger, "Night Moves"

I described the importance that overnight futures trading holds for me here. It is a guidepost to my strategy in the regular trading session.

Moreover, the overnight/early morning futures hold opportunities as they are (1) inefficient, though liquid, and (2) it seems fear and greed is often exaggerated outside the regular trading session.

Stock futures moved lower in the last few hours.

Brent is unchanged.

Soft commodities are flat to up small.

The 10-Year U.S. Note yield is +5.2 basis point at 3.543% (Goodbye TINA, Hello TATA). I continue to buy Treasuries.

S&P futures peaked a +19 and bottomed at -21. At 6:20 a.m. ET futures were -19 handles. (Much better than Monday morning at this time!)

Nasdaq futures peaked at +69 and bottomed at -80. At 6:21 a.m. ET futures were -72 handles.

Here is a synopsis to some of my columns I believe were important. The intent is to review the logic of my market moves and other factors:

We are at the Bottom of My Projected Trading Range

There is An Alternative

Don't Believe The Hype(I enjoyed writing this and I hope you enjoyed reading it)

Minding Mr. Market= My Calculus

It's Like Deja Vu All Over Again

Anticipation, Is Keeping Me Waiting


Here were Monday's trades (a busy day):

* Initiated longs in (AMZN) , (MSFT) and (QQQ) -- in the morning weakness (at good prices!).

* Added to (SPY) at $392.80.

* Added to (MSOS) .

* Covered (PNC) and (JPM) short calls.

* Reduced trading long rental in (FDX) -- will buy back on weakness.

Position: Long SPY, MSOS, PNC, JPM, AMZN, MSFT, QQQ, Treasuries; Short SPY calls and puts, MSOS calls

Lithium in Vacationland

Doomberg on the "Transition to Nowhere."

Position: None
Doug Kass - Watchlist (Longs)
ContributorSymbolInitial DateReturn
Doug KassVKTX4/2/24-32.96%
Doug KassOXY12/6/23-16.60%
Doug KassCVX12/6/23+9.52%
Doug KassXOM12/6/23+13.70%
Doug KassMSOS11/1/23-22.80%
Doug KassJOE9/19/23-15.13%
Doug KassOXY9/19/23-27.76%
Doug KassELAN3/22/23+32.98%
Doug KassVTV10/20/20+65.61%
Doug KassVBR10/20/20+77.63%