Closing time already? I was just hitting my stride.

Equity markets rallied into the bell, hitting their stride as well ... turning a day that bordered on catastrophic early on into just another "down" day. The day sure did get off to an ugly enough start after Russian forces attacked the largest nuclear power plant in Europe last night, and threatened to attack the second largest such plant on Ukrainian soil this morning.

For the session, the S&P 500 gave up 0.79%, led lower by PVH Corp (PVH) , down 11.56%. The top performing name in our broadest large cap index today was occidental Petroleum (OXY) , up 17.51%. In fact, OXY led the Energy sector as well. The Energy SPDR ETF (XLE)  led the sector performance tables, gaining 2.9% for the session. Beyond the S&P 500, the Nasdaq Composite surrendered 1.66%, while the Russell 2000 lost 1.62%.

Outside of equities, WTI Crude ran almost 7%, while Gold (+1.8%) and silver (+2.23%) futures had a nice day as well, despite relative dollar strength. The US dollar index went out at 98.5. Further out in the commodity complex, wheat added 6.61% and copper tacked on 2.75%. Bitcoin gave up 6.65% on Friday.

Baseball Trivia

There were four players, outside of Jackie Robinson's number 42 whose numbers were retired by the Montreal Expos. Without using Google, name them. Hint, there are four players, but only three numbers. Answers posted at the end of the day.

The four players were Gary Carter (8), Andre Dawson (10), Rusty Staub (10), and Tim Raines (30).

Have a Nice Weekend

Guess that's it for now. I'd like to thank you all for accepting me into your community when Doug is out, and I'd like to thank Doug for trusting me with his crew. That's you all. Now, have a pleasant, safe weekend, and with a little luck and the grace of a merciful God, I'll catch you kids on Monday morning.

Selections from next week's lineup of events: 

Monday

Kohl's (KSS) virtual investor day.

Pfizer (PFE) participates in Cowen's 42nd Annual Healthcare Conference. 

Tuesday

Parker Hannifin (PH) virtual meeting with investors and analysts.

Microsoft (MSFT)  participates at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference.

Lumentum Holdings (LITE) participates at the 2022 Optic Fiber Communication Conference.

Apple (AAPL) holds the firm's first product event of 2022. 

Wednesday 

Lordstown Motors (RIDE)  participates at the Work Truck Week show in Indianapolis. 

Thursday

General Electric (GE) holds its investor day.

eBay (EBAY) hosts a virtual investor day.

Airbnb (ABNB) participates at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference. 

Friday

AT&T (T) webcasts its analyst and investor day.

There were four players, outside of Jackie Robinson's number 42, whose numbers were retired by the Montreal Expos. Without using Google, name them. Hint, there are four players, but only three numbers. Answers posted at the end of the day.

Op-Ed from this morning's FT, on modern mapping.

My defense names are running again. These stocks are now firmly in a technically overbought condition.

I did just take a little something off in Lockheed Martin (LMT) out of respect for my target price. Given that this condition has been created by a news event and not through the normal course of trade, I am staying the course and will probably, ultimately increase both of these targets as I see it as a near certainty that almost all of NATO and probably anyone in Russia's neighborhood will likely be refocusing fiscal budgetary plans on being able to defend themselves. 

Lockheed Martin (LMT)



Key Products: F-35 Lightning, F-22 Raptor, F-16 Falcon, Black Hawk helicopter, C-5 Galaxy, C-130 Hercules, Javelin anti-tank. Under development: Offensive and defensive hypersonic weapons delivery systems. 

- Target Price: $465 (up from $455)

- Pivot: $378 (off of a double bottom)

- Panic: $382 (break of 50 day SMA)

Northrop Grumman (NOC)



Key products: B-2 Stealth Bomber, B-21 Raider, E-2C Hawkeye, contributor to F-35 program with Lockheed, contributor to F-18 program with Boeing (BA) . Under development: Hypersonic weapons delivery systems with Raytheon (RTX) . 

- Target Price: $490

- Pivot: $409 (off of cup with handle)

- Panic:$395 (break of 50 day SMA)

I broke my friends watch but haven't told him yet. It's never the right time!

With crude oil on the rise again, maritime shipper Kirby Corp (KEX) is attempting a technical breakout...



KEX is making a second attempt at getting past a $68 pivot created by a cup with handle pattern that started to form as far back as May. Relative strength is solid, while the full stochastics oscillator is not quite sending the "overbought" signal just yet. The daily MACD appears to be in good shape, with all three components in positive territory and the 12 day EMA just crossing over the 26 day EMA in bullish fashion. I am not in this name just yet. Matson (MATX) has been my maritime shipper of choice when crude pops, but that one is taking a rest today...

...and is coming out of being technically overbought. I am recently out of this one and considering KEX. Should KEX take and hold pivot, I see $82 as a probable target and $62 as a likely panic point, which would be a break of the 50 day SMA.

Chevron

Hess

APA

 Civitas

These are my current holdings in the energy space. These names along with my defense contractors have literally carried my main portfolio since markets peaked late 2021/early 2022.

Table B, Establishment Survey

1) Total Non-Farm Payrolls... +678K, bringing the three month average up to 582K.

2) Average Weekly Hours increased from 34.6 to 34.7.

3) Average Weekly Earnings increased by $0.01 to $31.58 (0.0% m/m, +5.1% y/y) 

Table A, Household Survey

1) Participation improves from 62.2% to 62.3%.

2) Employed Persons increased by 548K.

3) Unemployed Persons decreased by 243K.

4) Unemployment Rate for those with less than a HS diploma drops from 6.3% to 4.3%.

5) Unemployment Rate for those with some college increased from 3.6% to 3.8%. 

Table A-15

1) Unemployment Rate (U-3) decreased from 4.0% to 3.8%.

2) Underemployment Rate (U-6) increased from 7.1% to 7.2%.

I like to come in roaring and try to motivate Doug's warrior clan in the way that only an infantry NCO can. Too much going on this morning to be "that guy" today. Today, we have to be cold and calculating, as the adversaries of global decency are apparently either cold and calculating or simply unstable. Perhaps that is the impression they wish to extend. Either way, the extension of the belief that the Russian army is capable of sinking to any level has to be taken as an attempt to terrify the region, or maybe the planet, either by design or sheer recklessness.

Currently...

S&P 500 futures are trading 36 points below fair value

Nasdaq futures are trading 104 points below fair value

Russell 2000 futures are trading 26 points below fair value

The US Dollar Index is trading above 98

Bitcoin is trading below $41,800

Ethereum is trading below $2,750

Gold is flirting with $1,950

Silver is flirting with $25.35

The US Ten Year Note pays 1.779%

The US Two Year Note pays 1.492%

The US Three Month T-Bill pays 0.34%

Go get yourself a nice third or fourth cup of something. Then I want you to drop and give me what you've got. I don't care if it's ten or a hundred, but show me you've got some fire in that belly. Then we'll meet back here. Full battle rattle. I want nothing but elbows and backsides. We've got work to do. Sarge out.